Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

listermint · 12-08-2020 2:13pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

How badly affected have EU economies been affected by Covid? Is the UK slide into recession mirrored around the EU?

no by contrast EU average is around 11%, highest is Portugal at 14%

So the UK is absolutely excelling here.

An Claidheamh · 12-08-2020 3:10pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Blessed are the cheesemakers

The UK Japan trade deal has hit a small snag over a triflingly small sum
Given how much the Japanese value Face this is not good news.

It looks like spin is now more important than substance.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53737388

Anyone remember the cheese speech ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o

Quantitative cheesing

Sam Russell · 12-08-2020 3:19pm

But is not the cheese thing with Japan a bit like the fish business with the EU?

Fish is tiny in GDP terms, but fish quotas are important because fish do not recognise borders. Fishing fleets need to be able to fish for stocks that are sustainable and that requires quotas, which requires agreements.

I cannot see an agreement between the EU and UK without fish.

An Claidheamh · 12-08-2020 3:20pm

On the day that the UK goes into the worst recession in Europe and the week Britain prepared for the sea border, just a reminder that “expert” Ray Bassett appears to be flogging a new book to the converted by giving serials to the Daily Express.

He literally claims the opposite of what actually happened, happened.

It’s almost psychotic.

Must be paying the bills with this nonsense.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1321743/brexit-news-boris-johnson-leo-varadkar-ireland-backstop-eu-theresa-may-withdrawal

However, it supports my theory that Johnson is there to claim “victory” and sell it to the plebs, but has always planned to go ahead with the original withdrawal deal

McGiver · 12-08-2020 8:11pm

ambro25 wrote:

None of Ireland, The Netherlands, Luxembourg or Switzerland classify as tax havens nowadays.

Incorrect. Of course they do by all experts on the matter, academia and NGOs. Obviously not as per OECD, because no country qualifies as a haven as per OECD! No need to put on the green jersey and pretend Ireland isn't a tax haven. Everyone knows that, so there's really no reason to defend the indefensible position.

ambro25 wrote:

None of them are any use to 'hide' profits and/or assets, either.

Oh they do. Especially LU and IE GDP inflation (vs GNI) is a clear indicator of tax haven status. NL is a borderline case. Ch is a shadow banking hub, different niche.

But that's for a separate thread.

UK may try to deregulate and go full haven / OFC but not sure if it's going to work.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-08-2020 9:57pm

Enzokk wrote: »

But look, dinghy's!!

Speaking of fishing, the Nina May is an almost five meter long blue fibre glass dingy with an outboard engine.

And a quota for 1,500 tonnes of fish , 20% of the entire UK South-West total.

But Brexiteers need not worry, the UK handed over fishing to big, mostly foreign, business a long time ago. And hasn't enforced existing regulations like requiring the catch to be landed in the UK.

The UK and EU are haggling over fishing rights and it doesn't really matter who wins because the local fishermen won't.

Imreoir2 · 13-08-2020 12:14am

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

How badly affected have EU economies been affected by Covid? Is the UK slide into recession mirrored around the EU?

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

Peregrinus · 13-08-2020 2:36am

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

. . . or into any market which has a free trade deal with the EU that includes protection of geographical indicators.

The EU has the largest network of free trade deals the world has ever seen, and reciprocal protection of geographical indicators is a standard EU ask in negotiating any trade deal. So that's an awful lot of markets that are closed to English "champagne".

In itself, this doesn't matter a great deal. England doesn't produce a lot of sparkling wine and, if they did, who in his right mind would buy English sparkling wine, no matter how it was labelled?

But obviously there are other products that the UK does or could produce that might resemble EU products protected by a geographical indication. There's no reason why the UK can't produce feta-type cheese, say, or Parma-type ham. Absent a UK/EU trade deal, there is nothing to stop them labelling those products as feta cheese and Parma ham when sold in the UK market, or in any market that doesn't protect EU geographical indicators. And there are still substantial markets which don't, the US being the most obvious. (For now, at any rate.)

Still, this provides limited opportunities. UK producers could sell Parma ham in the US, but so can US producers - they already do. American consumers might be prepared to pay a premium for Parma ham from your actual Parma, but not for Parma ham from Peasmarsh. And I doubt the UK producers can compete with US producers on price in the US market.

ambro25 · 13-08-2020 9:44am

McGiver wrote: »

Incorrect. Of course they do by all experts on the matter, academia and NGOs. Obviously not as per OECD, because no country qualifies as a haven as per OECD! No need to put on the green jersey and pretend Ireland isn't a tax haven. Everyone knows that, so there's really no reason to defend the indefensible position.

Oh they do. Especially LU and IE GDP inflation (vs GNI) is a clear indicator of tax haven status. NL is a borderline case. Ch is a shadow banking hub, different niche.

But that's for a separate thread.

UK may try to deregulate and go full haven / OFC but not sure if it's going to work.

I always stick with the EU's definition of the expression-

firstly, as a personal reference/datum (given that there is no universally-accepted definition, not even that of the OECD as you rightly note) ; and

secondly, because I live, earn, bank and pay taxes in the EU (and if a state isn't referenced as a tax haven by the EU, that's good enough for me).

On that definitional basis, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Naturally, beyond the above, it's all shades of grey, varying in opinions and debates according to one's socio-political beliefs and principles and, never mind a separate thread, there are already libraries' full of tomes on the topic.

It is far less interesting than Brexit, certainly, and only peripherally relevant, subject to how Parliament and the City evolve fiscal and financial regulation in the UK from 2021. I expect Russian money management to be a rich rabbit hole to follow in that respect.

Charles Babbage · 13-08-2020 7:13pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

James O'Brien thinks geographical indicators will not apply after 1st Jan - well I think he may find that EU producers might make Stilton cheese or Scotch Whiskey, but the UK producers will still be prohibited from producing Champagne or Gorganzlla.

So we in Ireland can make Stilton although people in Stilton cannot! (Stilton cheese can only be made in an area that does not include Stilton).

BonnieSituation · 13-08-2020 7:16pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

So we in Ireland can make Stilton although people in Stilton cannot! (Stilton cheese can only be made in an area that does not include Stilton).

No, anyone can make a stilton-type cheese but only stilton-type cheeses made within that Geographic region can call their cheese Stilton.

serfboard · 13-08-2020 8:01pm

An Claidheamh wrote: »

“expert” Ray Bassett appears to be flogging a new book to the converted by giving serials to the Daily Express.

He literally claims the opposite of what actually happened, happened.

It’s almost psychotic.

Must be paying the bills with this nonsense.

You'd have to wonder what kind of Kompromat Brexiters have on Ray Bassett - how can someone go from being an Irish ambassador, to spouting the deluded nonsense that he goes on with?

It can't surely be that it's just all about money, or, maybe worse, that he actually believes what he's saying?

Wikipedia wrote:

Ray Bassett ... served as an ambassador from Ireland to Canada, Jamaica, and the Bahamas and joint Secretary to the British–Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Belfast. He is senior fellow for EU affairs at Policy Exchange.

and

Wikipedia wrote:

Policy Exchange is a UK-based centre-right think tank ... It has been described in The Daily Telegraph as "the largest, but also the most influential think tank on the right".
...
Policy Exchange was set up in 2002 by a group including Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude.
...
Think tank Transparify, which is funded by the Open Society Foundations, ranked Policy Exchange as one of the three least transparent think tanks in the UK in relation to funding. Transparify's report "How Transparent are Think Tanks about Who Funds Them 2016?" rated them as 'highly opaque,' one of 'a handful of think tanks that refuse to reveal even the identities of their donors.'Website 'WhoFundsYou?' rate Policy Exchange as 'E', the lowest score out of five for funding transparency.

Peregrinus · 14-08-2020 2:32am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

No, anyone can make a stilton-type cheese but only stilton-type cheeses made within that Geographic region can call their cheese Stilton.

Nitipick: the protected designations under EU law (and therefore, currently, UK law) are White Stilton (or Stilton White) and Blue Stilton (or Stilton Blue). "Stilton" on its own is not a protected designation "as long as it is not used in a way that may deceive or mislead consumers as to the true origin or quality of the product". So if you want to produce and market a stilton-type cheese under the name "Dublin Stilton" or the like, away you go.

14-08-2020 7:45am

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The UK can produce all the Champagne they like after the 31st, but the can't sell it in the EU market with that lable.

They can't - they agreed to continue to protect EU geographical indicators within the UK in the Withdrawal Agreement. They would have to renounce the WA to do that.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_104
They failed to negotiate the same for themselves - the continued protection of UK GIs will be at the gift of the EU, unless negotiated for directly as part of the new trade deal.

Enzokk · 14-08-2020 9:51am

When I saw this headline I thought someone linked a story from December last year,

Boris Johnson Says Irish Sea Border ‘Over My Dead Body’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned he would allow a post-Brexit border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body,” just days after pledging to help Northern Irish businesses cope with a new wave of customs red tape after the U.K. leaves the European Union.

Johnson made the comment during a visit to Belfast in Northern Ireland, where he also said businesses in the region would have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales after Brexit, according to the Press Association.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by Johnson in late 2019 effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, where goods crossing from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland must comply with EU rules and pay any potential post-Brexit tariffs. The solution was designed to avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But these comments were made after Johnson met Micheál Martin. I would hope those that even think of believing a word Johnson says to remember that he also said he would lie in front of bulldozers to stop the 3rd runway at Heathrow, and instead he left the country to avoid having to break his promise to his own constituents.

Peregrinus · 14-08-2020 10:10am

It's not just Johnson. Brexiters generally spend the best part of two years maintaining that various border controls and restrictions as between RoI and NI would not be a "hard border", remember. All that's happening here is the application of the same logic. Johnson has promised that thre will be no border down the Irish sea; therefore whatever controls, restrictions, delays or costs are imposed on goods crossing the Irish sea cannot be considered to be a "border". because that is the only way in is Johson's promise can be, or was ever going to be, honoured.

The DUP are in a particularly invidious position. Having, for reasons known only to them and their therapists, backed a hard Brexit and denied that controls on the RoI/NO border would amount to a hard border, they cannot really turn around and object that the same controls on the NI/GB border amount to a hard border. My heart doesn't bleed for them, though.

Sam Russell · 14-08-2020 11:17am

Enzokk wrote: »

When I saw this headline I thought someone linked a story from December last year,

Boris Johnson Says Irish Sea Border ‘Over My Dead Body’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned he would allow a post-Brexit border down the Irish Sea “over my dead body,” just days after pledging to help Northern Irish businesses cope with a new wave of customs red tape after the U.K. leaves the European Union.

Johnson made the comment during a visit to Belfast in Northern Ireland, where he also said businesses in the region would have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales after Brexit, according to the Press Association.

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by Johnson in late 2019 effectively creates a customs border in the Irish Sea, where goods crossing from the rest of the U.K. to Northern Ireland must comply with EU rules and pay any potential post-Brexit tariffs. The solution was designed to avoid creating a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But these comments were made after Johnson met Micheál Martin. I would hope those that even think of believing a word Johnson says to remember that he also said he would lie in front of bulldozers to stop the 3rd runway at Heathrow, and instead he left the country to avoid having to break his promise to his own constituents.

Look at the words used: He says that NI will have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales - there will not be a border down the Irish Sea. [Of course, he was speaking from NI - and from there, there will not be a border].

Now from England, Scotland and Wales there will most certainly be a border down the Irish Sea, whether going directly or through Dublin. The customs declarations, inspections, etc. will be quite evident to all.

Was it a lie, or was it spin, or was it confusing?

Enzokk · 14-08-2020 11:20am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Look at the words used: He says that NI will have unfettered access to England, Scotland and Wales - there will not be a border down the Irish Sea. [Of course, he was speaking from NI - and from there, there will not be a border].

Now from England, Scotland and Wales there will most certainly be a border down the Irish Sea, whether going directly or through Dublin. The customs declarations, inspections, etc. will be quite evident to all.

Was it a lie, or was it spin, or was it confusing?

It was a lie infused with spin I believe. At the start that border will be invisible, but once other countries start objecting at the WTO to the open access of the EU via Ireland to the UK market that invisible border will become visible very quickly.

Sam Russell · 14-08-2020 1:17pm

Enzokk wrote: »

It was a lie infused with spin I believe. At the start that border will be invisible, but once other countries start objecting at the WTO to the open access of the EU via Ireland to the UK market that invisible border will become visible very quickly.

Well, if I was making cheese in Milltown, I would look at relocating my cheese packing plant from Wales to Newry or Banbridge so that the newly packed cheddar cheese can make their way to British supermarkets unhindered by customs and tariffs.

Also, packing beef cuts killed in Kildare can be packaged in the nearby chilling plants. Maybe just a relabelling plant would do the business.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-08-2020 9:29pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, if I was making cheese in Milltown, I would look at relocating my cheese packing plant from Wales to Newry or Banbridge so that the newly packed cheddar cheese can make their way to British supermarkets unhindered by customs and tariffs.

Also, packing beef cuts killed in Kildare can be packaged in the nearby chilling plants. Maybe just a relabelling plant would do the business.

Actually the opposite happened. Glanbia have joined forces with the Dutch to produce cheeses better suited to the European market.

That's half the exports to the UK diversified in one go.

And there is no point in building a new factory up north you'd simply ship the milk there. LacPatrick’s have a new Dairy Technology Centre in Artigarvan, capable of processing up to 2.5 million litres each day.
https://edairynews.com/en/lacpatricks-e33-million-plant-to-future-proof-irish-milk-sales-54831/

We've are moving from being dependent on the UK as our only market for generic cheddar
https://www.ifa.ie/brexit/brexit-ireland/

Exports of cheddar cheese were 78,000 tonnes, representing 82% of all cheddar imported by the UK in 2016. Ireland is the only significant exporter of cheddar to the UK market and the UK market is the only market of significance for Irish cheddar.

To setting a new factory to export valued added "greener" Dutch style cheese.
https://waterford-news.ie/2020/07/03/e140m-belview-cheese-plant-gets-thumbs-up/#.XzaKoDW0XDc

partnership between Glanbia Ireland and leading Dutch dairy producer Royal A-ware will create a new route to market for the milk
...
The plant, which was originally due to be in operation in 2022, will be built alongside Glanbia’s milk processing plant in Belview and is expected to produce 40,000 tonnes of cheese annually in addition to processing 450 million litres of milk.

Spanish Eyes · 14-08-2020 9:37pm

Seems to me that no one in the UK/NI is in the least worried about Brexit at all.

Tell me how · 14-08-2020 9:41pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Seems to me that no one in the UK/NI is in the least worried about Brexit at all.

Based on what evidence?

People you have spoken to? News coverage?

I still see a lot of traffic in relation to it on Twitter.

Sam Russell · 14-08-2020 9:43pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Actually the opposite happened. Glanbia have joined forces with the Dutch to produce cheeses better suited to the European market.

That's half the exports to the UK diversified in one go.

And there is no point in building a new factory up north you'd simply ship the milk there. LacPatrick’s have a new Dairy Technology Centre in Artigarvan, capable of processing up to 2.5 million litres each day.
https://edairynews.com/en/lacpatricks-e33-million-plant-to-future-proof-irish-milk-sales-54831/

We've are moving from being dependent on the UK as our only market for generic cheddar
https://www.ifa.ie/brexit/brexit-ireland/

To setting a new factory to export valued added "greener" Dutch style cheese.
https://waterford-news.ie/2020/07/03/e140m-belview-cheese-plant-gets-thumbs-up/#.XzaKoDW0XDc

I think you misunderstood.

The cheddar is still made in Milltown but is repacked from the huge blocks into supermarket sized packs. The same with the beef - killed in Ireland but repacked in NI. So final product is from NI with destination GB - no customs and no tariff.

We still need markets for beef and cheese. Irish cheddar cheese is currently repacked in Wales for the likes of Tesco, but if it was repacked in NI, it would have free run into GB.

Spanish Eyes · 14-08-2020 10:36pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Based on what evidence?

People you have spoken to? News coverage?

I still see a lot of traffic in relation to it on Twitter.

Twitter? ok .

Covid has buried Brexit now.

Tell me how · 14-08-2020 11:01pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Twitter? ok .

Covid has buried Brexit now.

Yeah, obviously. That's not to say there is no interest whatsoever in Brexit.

Is Twitter not a window in to the relevance of particular topics in a society now? I mustn't be using it correctly because I find it a good way to get that. And cheaper than having to fly there and talk to everyone.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-08-2020 11:41pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you misunderstood.
..
We still need markets for beef and cheese. Irish cheddar cheese is currently repacked in Wales for the likes of Tesco, but if it was repacked in NI, it would have free run into GB.

In the short term and for high volume low margin stuff where transport costs are important.

It's the whole "we need them more than they need us" Brexit thing again.

The UK is our biggest market for cheddar. So we need them, in theory.

Unless of course we start using the same milk to make premium "grass fed, environmentally produced" cheese that's worth more than generic "Tesco" cheddar.

The UK is going to find out a lot of truths about the global market soon enough where suppliers will find other markets rather than bowing to the UK's terms.

Capt'n Midnight · 15-08-2020 12:11am

Peregrinus wrote: »

The DUP are in a particularly invidious position. Having, for reasons known only to them and their therapists, backed a hard Brexit and denied that controls on the RoI/NO border would amount to a hard border, they cannot really turn around and object that the same controls on the NI/GB border amount to a hard border. My heart doesn't bleed for them, though.

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

But they took dirty money and ran an Ad campaign in the Metro that was only seen by the 97% of the UK population that didn't live in NI. So now they have created the conditions where a United Ireland is possible

fash · 15-08-2020 1:53am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

... But having "lost through winning", they then had every opportunity to seek a soft or softer brexit - but they deliberately gambled everything on re-establishing a GFA breaking militarised border to the Republic.
They lost that bet. But in any case they had at least 2 (lengthy) opportunities to act responsibly and they failed each time.

Enzokk · 15-08-2020 7:57am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like Johnson they counted on remain to win allowing them to rattle sabres.

Appeal to the faithful but not upset the moderates by actually winning.

But they took dirty money and ran an Ad campaign in the Metro that was only seen by the 97% of the UK population that didn't live in NI. So now they have created the conditions where a United Ireland is possible

I think you give their politicians too much credit. I think they really believed in Brexit and when someone mentioned that once they have left and made a success of it, it would stop the talk of a United Ireland forever they were all on board. That would, as fash posted, explain why they never tacked to a soft Brexit. They are/were true believers in Brexit and drank all of the Kool-Aid.

RobMc59 · 15-08-2020 8:18am

fash wrote: »

... But having "lost through winning", they then had every opportunity to seek a soft or softer brexit - but they deliberately gambled everything on re-establishing a GFA breaking militarised border to the Republic.
They lost that bet. But in any case they had at least 2 (lengthy) opportunities to act responsibly and they failed each time.

Regardless of how brexit finally ends I don't think there will ever be a militarised border as that would be a focal point for terrorism..

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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