Property Market 2020

TSQ · 23-03-2020 11:47pm

Getting back to the subject pf property....anyone heard of Helpahero, and is it legit? It claims to To be a platform to help property owners in affected countries (so not just Ireland) provide support to medical staff who may need to isolate from family while treating corona patients.

LuasSimon · 23-03-2020 11:48pm

The government will have to recoup taxs from somewhere when this is over, increased property tax might balance the books to replace business rates for local councils.
A third higher rate of tax circa 50% will be needed for central funds for welfare etc

TheSheriff · 23-03-2020 11:56pm

The rental drops are quite staggering to be honest, I have old active daft alerts from two years back for one beds in Dublin around 1300e have gotten relatively nothing over the past year.

Must have had over 20 emails today with properties.

Also, another email today re a property: this one we hadn't bid on, just went to the viewing maybe two months back. Property has dropped 25k from 440k.

milhous · 23-03-2020 11:57pm

LuasSimon wrote: »

The government will have to recoup taxs from somewhere when this is over, increased property tax might balance the books to replace business rates for local councils.
A third higher rate of tax circa 50% will be needed for central funds for welfare etc

I know theres a difference between úsc and tax.. But with both combined for a large number of people theyre at more than 50% already.
Anything more for us and we'll just decrease how much we work.

Graham · 23-03-2020 11:57pm

LuasSimon wrote: »

A third higher rate of tax circa 50% will be needed for central funds for welfare etc

Mod

That would be an interesting discussion for the Taxation or Economics forum.

LuckyLloyd · 24-03-2020 8:24am

awec wrote: »

If they are on the property ladder.

Let's be absolutely clear here, because it seems to be getting lost, if some people get bargains it's because many more people have been taken out of the market.

That is to say, this notion of "everyone wait, everyone get a bargain" is just not how it works. It's nonsense.

The choice for many people is not overpriced house now or cheap house later. It's overpriced house now vs no house later.

You’re completely right, but the answer to your last question remains “no house”. Do not consign yourself to a decade or more of negative equity. Stay mobile. Stay flexible. Stay liquid.

handlemaster · 24-03-2020 8:27am

landofthetree wrote: »

In 3-4 weeks time everybody will see how bad things are.

Anybody thinking we aren't facing a huge downturn is in for a shock.

So true.... they say when America sneezes europe gets a cold.. read below from the bbc

Last week Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin predicted that US unemployment could reach 20%. On Thursday the Treasury Department will release last week's new jobless claims, and the numbers are sure to be in the millions. A Goldman Sachs report estimated that the nation's gross domestic product in the second quarter could shrink by 24%, dwarfing the previous 10% record decline in 1958.

Maitguel · 24-03-2020 9:05am

There are 2 property markets, there is the Dublin market and the rest of Ireland market. There is no doubt there will be a correction in the Dublin, the level of this correction is what is unknown. As for the rest of the country it really depends on the property. What incentive is there for person to sell their home at a loss? It is extremely difficult to evict people and will be even more so after this, so why would people dramatically drop their prices on these houses in the coming months; when they can continue to stay in them or at the very least rent then and make a return. Perhaps some landlords will want to cash out now after having a good run for many years but again the bulk of this supply will be in the inner Dublin City and mainly apartments.

Ush1 · 24-03-2020 9:45am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You’re completely right, but the answer to your last question remains “no house”. Do not consign yourself to a decade or more of negative equity. Stay mobile. Stay flexible. Stay liquid.

People renting with families often don't have those options, they need security.

24-03-2020 9:57am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You’re completely right, but the answer to your last question remains “no house”. Do not consign yourself to a decade or more of negative equity. Stay mobile. Stay flexible. Stay liquid.

Or, I can buy the house that myself, my wife and my kids all now live in and just not give a **** what happens to property prices over the next decade.

lomb · 24-03-2020 10:46am

kevinc565 wrote: »

I love it when these unrealistically priced houses fall in price. Still way too expensive though!

Down €100k earlier this month.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-whitebeam-avenue-clonskeagh-dublin-14-d14a3t7/4406210

That isn't worth more than 550-600k. I've no idea the mindset of the lunatic that buys this house. Even if you have the money why would anyone wealthy want to live there? Alot of South Dublin property is overbought and alot of other property isn't.

lomb · 24-03-2020 10:48am

Alexander Wrong Shortchange wrote: »

Or, I can buy the house that myself, my wife and my kids all now live in and just not give a **** what happens to property prices over the next decade.

Exactly. Property is a long term purchase

garhjw · 24-03-2020 10:52am

lomb wrote: »

That isn't worth more than 550-600k. I've no idea the mindset of the lunatic that buys this house. Even if you have the money why would anyone wealthy want to live there? Alot of South Dublin property is overbought and alot of other property isn't.

It’s definitely worth more than €600k but is overvalued at €1m+ if we ignore the current issues.

24-03-2020 11:01am

Alexander Wrong Shortchange wrote: »

Or, I can buy the house that myself, my wife and my kids all now live in and just not give a **** what happens to property prices over the next decade.

........... I bought my first property in 2005, I very much gave a sh1t what happened to property prices over the following decade.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 11:10am

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Indo article on a Davy report which outlines scenarios where property prices could drop by up to 20%. I always take reports from the likes of Davy with a pinch of salt given their vested interest in the market. For example, calling it a drop rather than a correction indicates their view on the price decreases. An interesting point in the article notes the price of land is expected to decrease which of course makes it cheaper to build.

lomb · 24-03-2020 11:13am

Augeo wrote: »

........... I bought my first property in 2005, I very much gave a sh1t what happened to property prices over the following decade.

Likely on a tracker though with a payment less than rent or even current buyers paying 3 percent

Graham · 24-03-2020 11:14am

Assetbacked wrote: »

For example, calling it a drop rather than a correction indicates their view on the price decreases.

I do admire your absolute certainty that there is a 'correct' value for property and that market value is somehow incorrect.

awec · 24-03-2020 11:15am

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You’re completely right, but the answer to your last question remains “no house”. Do not consign yourself to a decade or more of negative equity. Stay mobile. Stay flexible. Stay liquid.

Easy for young, socially mobile singletons to say.

voluntary · 24-03-2020 11:19am

If you're hunting for a home right now I think there may be some good opportunities in former airbnb market very soon. Some will be trying to enter the regular rental market, but I'm near certain many will exit the investments at this stage, especially when the rental market is at standstill and even asking lower rents may not currently secure tenants.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 11:19am

Graham wrote: »

I do admire your absolute certainty that there is a 'correct' value for property and that market value is somehow incorrect.

Completely agree - who's to say what the correct price is?

A house is worth what a person is willing to pay for it, end of story.

Cuddlesworth · 24-03-2020 11:25am

voluntary wrote: »

If you're hunting for a home right now I think there may be some good opportunities in former airbnb market very soon. Some will be trying to enter the regular rental market, but I'm near certain many will exit the investments at this stage, especially when the rental market is at standstill and even asking lower rents may not currently secure tenants.

I think the rather large glut of properties on the market recently(rental and sale) are air B&B esc properties returning to the market. Because for all of them, their next 3-4 months are dead, probably 6-9 months and they know it.

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 11:38am

SozBbz wrote: »

Completely agree - who's to say what the correct price is?

A house is worth what a person is willing to pay for it, end of story.

Houses have an underlying basic cost of construction. If the market considers a house to be worth less than it costs to build, no one will build them.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:40am

The Belly wrote: »

Well from the table below there is a fair fall in lending during a recession if the last one was anything to go by.
Source Central Bank

Loan approvals - All Agencies - by year
Year New Houses Other Houses Totals
Number Value €m Number Value €m Number Value €m
2000 33,289 3726.2 47,567 5277.4 80,856 9003.7
2001 29,277 3695.9 39,785 5036.6 69,062 8732.6
2002 39,399 5985.9 53,737 8373.4 93,136 14359.3
2003 39,676 6968.2 58,212 10477.8 97,888 17446.1
2004 50,018 9750 54,287 11269.2 104,305 21019.2
2005 58,104 12971 61,933 14782.3 120,037 27753.3
2006 53,895 13994.7 60,698 17387.5 114,593 31382.2
2007 40,497 10560.4 48,250 13503.7 88,747 24064.1
2008 26,293 6625.2 29,586 8515 55,879 15140.3
2009 12,584 2719.7 15,340 3711.4 27,924 6431.1
2010 6,991 1,354.60 13,030 2,799.20 20,021 4,153.90
2011 2,960 541.2 9,874 1886.4 12,834 2427.7
2012 3,457 599.5 14,312 2625.5 17,769 3225
2013 2,974 530.6 16,284 3178.6 19,258 3709.3
2014 4,461 869.7 27,436 5317.4 31,897 6187.2
2015 4,685 996.5 27,551 5329.4 32,236 6326
2016 6,450 1517.1 28,587 5767.7 35,037 7284.8

Notes:
Source: From lending institutions and local authorities

Is that a fall in supply or demand though?

voluntary · 24-03-2020 11:43am

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses have an underlying basic cost of construction. If the market considers a house to be worth less than it costs to build, no one will build them.

The cost of construction is rapidly falling. Check the raw material prices, they're falling as well as fuel. This will soon translate to cheaper building materials. High unemployment releases a lot of man power into the labour market, labour cost is going down. The speculative land prices is going down too, similarly to other assets, investors run away to cash (US Dollars).

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 11:43am

Graham wrote: »

I do admire your absolute certainty that there is a 'correct' value for property and that market value is somehow incorrect.

3.5 times salary is affordability. Looking at median salaries, that renders prices in Ireland beyond affordable. Hence, correction.

24-03-2020 11:44am

GreeBo wrote: »

Is that a fall in supply or demand though?

They go hand-in-hand to some extent surely. If a homeowner decides not to move (reducing demand) their own property won't go on the market either (reducing supply). Builders went bust reducing supply, hundreds of thousands lost their jobs reducing demand. Or else it could have been external factors like being much harder to get a mortgage.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:47am

lomb wrote: »

That isn't worth more than 550-600k. I've no idea the mindset of the lunatic that buys this house. Even if you have the money why would anyone wealthy want to live there? Alot of South Dublin property is overbought and alot of other property isn't.

Ah come on now, of course its worth more than 600K!

If a 150m2 house in Clonskeagh is 600K, what is the same house in Stepaside worth?
How about the same house in Celbridge?

Soon enough you get to the stage where you cant build a house for less than you sell it. => building stops.

Knex* · 24-03-2020 11:47am

Graham wrote: »

I do admire your absolute certainty that there is a 'correct' value for property and that market value is somehow incorrect.

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:48am

voluntary wrote: »

The cost of construction is rapidly falling. Check the raw material prices, they're falling as well as fuel. This will soon translate to cheaper building materials. High unemployment releases a lot of man power into the labour market, labour cost is going down. The speculative land prices is going down too, similarly to other assets, investors run away to cash (US Dollars).

The house spec is continually rising though, there are far more materials going into houses today than there were 15 years ago.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:49am

Alexander Wrong Shortchange wrote: »

They go hand-in-hand to some extent surely. If a homeowner decides not to move (reducing demand) their own property won't go on the market either (reducing supply). Builders went bust reducing supply, hundreds of thousands lost their jobs reducing demand. Or else it could have been external factors like being much harder to get a mortgage.

They go hand in hand to some degree, but reduced demand tells you more about the economy/market than reduced supply IMO.

awec · 24-03-2020 11:51am

GreeBo wrote: »

Is that a fall in supply or demand though?

Demand. Ireland had an over-supply of properties fueled by super-easy-to-get credit during the tiger. Once that credit dried up, there was suddenly a large supply and low demand, so prices dropped.

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 11:51am

GreeBo wrote: »

The house spec is continually rising though, there are far more materials going into houses today than there were 15 years ago.

Not to mention the new health and safety and green codes new houses has to adhere to, sure it costs a fair whack just to have someone come out and tick the box to say the house has adhered to the above codes.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:51am

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

That doesnt make it over valued.
Why should a first time buyer have to live in Dublin?

The equivalent statement is that prices in Ballsbridge are overpriced because a single, first time buyer needs an income of €300K.
People need to accept that you cant always live where you want, no one can.

GreeBo · 24-03-2020 11:52am

awec wrote: »

Demand. Ireland had an over-supply of properties fueled by super-easy-to-get credit during the tiger. Once that credit dried up, there was suddenly a large supply and low demand, so prices dropped.

sorry, Im talking about supply and demand of mortgages, not houses.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 12:04pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses have an underlying basic cost of construction. If the market considers a house to be worth less than it costs to build, no one will build them.

I know this. Its other posters on this thread seem to think that there is a "correct" price for a house and that somehow that has to bear some relation to whether or not the average Joe/Josephine can afford it.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:05pm

GreeBo wrote: »

That doesnt make it over valued.
Why should a first time buyer have to live in Dublin?

The equivalent statement is that prices in Ballsbridge are overpriced because a single, first time buyer needs an income of €300K.
People need to accept that you cant always live where you want, no one can.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/dublin-homes-among-least-affordable-in-europe-says-moodys-research-927874.html

Only Amsterdam,Paris and London are less affordable in Europe.

garhjw · 24-03-2020 12:06pm

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

High prices are driven by current lack of supply... They aren’t overvalued in the current market (prior to current scenario).

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:08pm

fliball123 wrote: »

Not to mention the new health and safety and green codes new houses has to adhere to, sure it costs a fair whack just to have someone come out and tick the box to say the house has adhered to the above codes.

The cost of building a family home has risen 7.5 per cent to as much as €161,000 in the past year, according to new figures from a leading quantity surveyors group.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-of-building-a-new-family-home-rose-7-5-in-past-year-1.3624692?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fcost-of-building-a-new-family-home-rose-7-5-in-past-year-1.3624692

In blackrock they sell them for 1.25mil.

:D:D

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/blackrock/45-bed-semi-detached-the-carraig-no17-proby-p-blackrock-dublin-2433292/

Now even with land prices included they are making huge profits.

beauf · 24-03-2020 12:08pm

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

What it means is Dublin is out of reach of most people. Not that Dublin should be in reach of most people.

That Dublin shouldn't be up there with cost of more significant cities around the world is arguable.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:10pm

garhjw wrote: »

High prices are driven by current lack of supply... They aren’t overvalued in the current market (prior to current scenario).

If the government built a lot more social housing over the last 4-5 years then they wouldn't be so high.

Its basically government policy to keep prices high.

Graham · 24-03-2020 12:13pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

3.5 times salary is affordability. Looking at median salaries, that renders prices in Ireland beyond affordable. Hence, correction.

By the same logic, BMWs are due a massive pricing correction any minute now.

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 12:15pm

beauf wrote: »

What it means is Dublin is out of reach of most people. Not that Dublin should be in reach of most people.

That Dublin shouldn't be up there with cost of more significant cities around the world is arguable.

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Also how many English people could afford to live in London or French people in Paris or Americans in New York?

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:19pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Bad planning is a big part of the problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_cities_proper_by_population_density

We need more high rise in the centre.

There is no shortage of land between the canals in Dublin to build on.

Roberto_gas · 24-03-2020 12:27pm

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Too conservative figure !

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:30pm

fliball123 wrote: »

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Also how many English people could afford to live in London or French people in Paris or Americans in New York?

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

384 trains depart from Paddington for Reading every day. This means you can expect trains to leave London every 5 to 10 minutes.

On an average weekday, there are 160 trains travelling from Slough to London Paddington. The journey time may be longer on weekends and holidays.

accensi0n · 24-03-2020 12:32pm

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

120 x 3.5 = 420

If on 120k and single, then can easily save at least a couple of grand a month. Have probably been working a number of years if on that salary. Would have a sizable deposit, let's say 60k (But probably more).

Looking at just south dublin city in daft, there's a fair few houses for a lot less than 480:
https://tinyurl.com/we468cz

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 12:33pm

Roberto_gas wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Too conservative figure !

Around 10-14 days ago people who claimed that on here were being called lunatics.

I agree its too conservative.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 12:33pm

landofthetree wrote: »

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

Sure, but the London commuter belt is still very expensive, and you would need a good salary to buy a nice family home in a decent area.

Knex* · 24-03-2020 12:36pm

accensi0n wrote: »

120 x 3.5 = 420

If on 120k and single, then can easily save at least a couple of grand a month. Have probably been working a number of years if on that salary. Would have a sizable deposit, let's say 60k (But probably more).

Looking at just south dublin city in daft, there's a fair few houses for a lot less than 480:
https://tinyurl.com/we468cz

I don't think the issue is buying a house on that salary, it's actually obtaining the salary in the first place.

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 12:36pm

landofthetree wrote: »

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

It is also now outside the EU I think I would rather the bad transport and have the EU standing behind me than being able to get a train at midnight and have no where to go if the sh1t hits the fan. Not to mention any market/company/English speaking person who has a choice now between England and Ireland will more times than not choose Ireland

Property Market 2020

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