Property Market 2020

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting the info that there is going to be a halt?? how will demand dry up or supply overflow to facilitate this halt?

Where do you get the impression that the economy will be all hunky dory in the foreseeable future?

I'm looking at Italy at the moment, do you think people are even concerned about going to the bank to apply for a mortgage? This is coming to Ireland in 1-2 week, I'm expecting major changes

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Where do you get the impression that the economy will be all hunky dory in the foreseeable future?

I'm looking at Italy at the moment, do you think people are even concerned about going to the bank to apply for a mortgage? This is coming to Ireland in 1-2 week, I'm expecting major changes

Not sure about the economy on either a local level or global one, but the fundamental of economics is supply and demand and unless corona can affect either of these in a significant way as in over 100k people either leaving, dying or wanting to sell up, or that bob the builder and his team come in and decide to build over 100k houses and do it while making a loss, then I cannot see a halt.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting the info that there is going to be a halt?? how will demand dry up or supply overflow to facilitate this halt?

Look at the share prices of European banks - absolutely hammered the past week. The banking sector are going to be eating some fairly hefty losses with the expectation of a multitude of small business going to the wall - restaurants, retail etc due to cashflow and custom drying up.

Its my expectation there will be a batten down the hatches mentality when it comes to mortgage lending as banks stop expanding their balance sheets thus resulting in mortgage finance availability drying up. Maybe there won't - no one knows for certain.

I'd expect any landlord currently trying to sell and exit may need to re rent again if they don't actually need the money. Interesting if a few former air bnbs start to come back on the market - Dalata's share price has also plummeted probably in the expectation that the next few months will be tough for hospitality and tourism.

Uncertain times - that is for certain.

enricoh

fliball123 wrote: »

Not sure about the economy on either a local level or global one, but the fundamental of economics is supply and demand and unless corona can affect either of these in a significant way as in over 100k people either leaving, dying or wanting to sell up, or that bob the builder and his team come in and decide to build over 100k houses and do it while making a loss, then I cannot see a halt.

Not sure what the combined multinationals share price drop is so far, but they won't be long cutting numbers to reassure investors. No more couple of billion extra corporation tax unexpectedly every year for Pascal or whoever to waste.
As for 60- 100k social housing in the next few years - pie in the sky, there's nothing in the kitty!

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Look at the share prices of European banks - absolutely hammered the past week. The banking sector are going to be eating some fairly hefty losses with the expectation of a multitude of small business going to the wall - restaurants, retail etc due to cashflow and custom drying up.

Its my expectation there will be a batten down the hatches mentality when it comes to mortgage lending as banks stop expanding their balance sheets thus resulting in mortgage finance availability drying up. Maybe there won't - no one knows for certain.

I'd expect any landlord currently trying to sell and exit may need to re rent again if they don't actually need the money. Interesting if a few former air bnbs start to come back on the market - Dalata's share price has also plummeted probably in the expectation that the next few months will be tough for hospitality and tourism.

Uncertain times - that is for certain.

Maybe but why is Ireland different. For example Paris is surely got an outbreak of corona to deal with and yet the price of property there has gone up in the last 3 months

https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/295846-0

Can you explain why Ireland is a special case where prices will stall or is it that Paris is immune to Corona or is it that house prices do not have a direct correlation?

ittakestwo

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but why is Ireland different. For example Paris is surely got an outbreak of corona to deal with and yet the price of property there has gone up in the last 3 months

https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/295846-0

Can you explain why Ireland is a special case where prices will stall or is it that Paris is immune to Corona or is it that house prices do not have a direct correlation?

Do you not think there would be a lag in those statistics... France had its first case of Corona three weeks ago.

fliball123

ittakestwo wrote: »

Do you not think there would be a lag in those statistics... France had its first case of Corona three weeks ago.

When did we have our first case I dont even think it was 3 weeks ago? I am just pointing out the fact that property is not fully aligned with global events and a certain level of localisation kicks in. Locally we have not got enough supply to meet demand. People are pointing at corona saying this will impact it as in people will leave the country and I am just pointing out that supply vs demand will need a very high level of people leaving or dying before that particular dynamic is squared

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe but why is Ireland different. For example Paris is surely got an outbreak of corona to deal with and yet the price of property there has gone up in the last 3 months

https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/295846-0

Can you explain why Ireland is a special case where prices will stall or is it that Paris is immune to Corona or is it that house prices do not have a direct correlation?

You've answered your own question - the past three months of prices are based on sales negotiated up to six months ago.

Next six months are going to be markedly different. We are now at a WHO Pandemic - unprecedented stuff. I'd predict a total slowdown in the level of sales here - whether that will result in massive falls, nobody knows.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

When did we have our first case I dont even think it was 3 weeks ago? I am just pointing out the fact that property is not fully aligned with global events and a certain level of localisation kicks in. Locally we have not got enough supply to meet demand. People are pointing at corona saying this will impact it as in people will leave the country and I am just pointing out that supply vs demand will need a very high level of people leaving or dying before that particular dynamic is squared

Demand for the purchase of property is not just actual numbers of people needing to be housed, it's also linked to availability of credit.

You're right, the housing shortage will remain but the actual pool of money available to buy is going to shrink and there could be gridlock for a number of months now in terms or property sales.

Assetbacked

J_1980 wrote: »

https://investorrelations.iresreit.ie/investment-policy-and-strategy.aspx


Gearing

The Group will seek to use gearing to enhance shareholder returns over the long term. The Group’s gearing, represented by the Group’s aggregate borrowings as a percentage of the market value of the Group’s total assets, will not exceed the 50% maximum permitted under the Irish REIT Regime2.


50% is max gearing, normal likely 30-40%.
Less than Half the debt of an average 1st time buyer. This is basically very low risk debt levels. Forced selling is a long way out....

This is a climbdown from your previous point, that there was no debt and that it was cash buying to now it is just low levels and low risk debt.

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Demand for the purchase of property is not just actual numbers of people needing to be housed, it's also linked to availability of credit.

You're right, the housing shortage will remain but the actual pool of money available to buy is going to shrink and there could be gridlock for a number of months now in terms or property sales.

so where are the billions and billions coming from to house these people?? if there is going to be an economic slowdown it surely wont be the government.. So what do you think will happen the gov will build using the magic money tree out the back or further quantitative easing and a relaxation on the mortgage rules allowing more people to get a mortgage???

ZX7R

Irish banks are holding steady the last 3 days , some are even gaining,I'm a bit surprised by the fact no one is picking up on it.

fliball123

ZX7R wrote: »

Irish banks are holding steady the last 3 days , some are even gaining,I'm a bit surprised by the fact no one is picking up on it.

Actions Trump has taken also seems to have calmed the markets

markjbloggs

fliball123 wrote: »

Actions Trump has taken also seems to have calmed the markets

Eh ?

Greyian

fliball123 wrote: »

Actions Trump has taken also seems to have calmed the markets

Which markets are these?

Because it suddenly certainly isn't the stock markets in the US.

The_Conductor

Greyian wrote: »

Which markets are these?

Because it suddenly isn't the stock markets in the US.

Dow Jones down 6.7% today (and counting........)

fliball123

markjbloggs wrote: »

Eh ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/mar/10/markets-coronavirus-donald-trump-tax-cut-ftse-dow-italy-crash-recovery-business-live

markjbloggs

fliball123 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/mar/10/markets-coronavirus-donald-trump-tax-cut-ftse-dow-italy-crash-recovery-business-live

That was 23 hours ago. In th meantime, it has emerged that Trump has done nothing and the US markets are setting new lows, down 6% today as of right now

ZX7R

fliball123 wrote: »

Actions Trump has taken also seems to have calmed the markets

No I don't think it's anything to do with Trump's Wise words they have been doing well since close of trade last Friday..
I would hazard a guess that after the property crash and stricter rules imposed
They seem safer to investors ,
On other good news Irish residential propertys increased today and went positive.
It's going to be an interesting time ahead ,
For people buying or selling .
It will take time mortgages will still be issued even with a down turn ,during the last recession 11000 were still issued at the lowest point.

awec

Things are too volatile right now to make any real predictions on what will happen. Yesterday was positive, today is negative again. Tomorrow could be positive again, or it could drop some more.

Today's drop likely related to the fact that it was officially declared a pandemic. Investors are not going to be suddenly surprised that Trump has done nothing, they will already have known that long before your average internet commentator.

Villa05

J_1980 wrote:

Only positive thing about Coronavirus is, that it’ll cripple public finances. No more social housing pipe dreams and xmas bonuses for lifetime dolers When SF come into power (which will eventually happen) they'll fail like any other left wing government....

J_1980 wrote:

They are not debt financed. These are cash buyers. Pull money and invest where???? -1% interest bearing bonds?? For international investors who have a reference interest rate of 0% (unlike the 2.5% for Irish mortgage buyers) it takes a lot to make it unattractive. I’d go so far as they can leave half the block empty (like capital Dock) and won’t care one bit. Yields are too good.

Ironically enough SF housing policy is very close to Dermot Desmond vision in his Irish times article in which he states that the current government is paying twice as much for housing than it should be.

It looks to me that current Gov housing policy is far more dangerous to the country than SF policy.

I understand why property bulls slate SF at every opportunity as they are well aware that there policies would restore some supply/demand balance thereby deflating exorbitant rents and property prices

I'm not shinner and did not vote for them as other parties had similar policies

Steer55

fliball123 wrote: »

Even with all the new developments daft and myhome have less properties advertised now then they did 6 months ago. Just saying if your premise is right and we are at the top why are there so few properties up for sale?

Who in heavens name is going to put a property up for sale right now at the start of a global pandemic?

Etray reviewer

I’m within a couple of weeks of drawing down a mortgage. In the present climate of Coronavirus, any recommendations?

ZX7R

Etray reviewer wrote: »

I’m within a couple of weeks of drawing down a mortgage. In the present climate of Coronavirus, any recommendations?

Simple answer in my eyes,
Is it going to be your family home,
If yes buy it .
Even if the value drops it will rebound in the future family homes are a long term investment it's a family home enjoy it.
If it's for investment I'd hold off

Deub

fliball123 wrote: »

so where are the billions and billions coming from to house these people?? if there is going to be an economic slowdown it surely wont be the government.. So what do you think will happen the gov will build using the magic money tree out the back or further quantitative easing and a relaxation on the mortgage rules allowing more people to get a mortgage???

Prices/rents will go down?

Etray reviewer

ZX7R wrote: »

Simple answer in my eyes,
Is it going to be your family home,
If yes buy it .
Even if the value drops it will rebound in the future family homes are a long term investment it's a family home enjoy it.
If it's for investment I'd hold off

First time buy. Intended to be my house for life. Thanks for reply.

lastusername

Etray reviewer wrote: »

First time buy. Intended to be my house for life. Thanks for reply.

We've just pulled out of a sale as it's obviously looking uncertain and you don't know what'll happen with jobs and the broader economy. But the main reason is we felt the mortgage was too high, especially for an older house that would need a bit of work (not much, but a bit).

There were other factors too but if it had have been a house where 'we knew' it was the one, then we'd probably be going for it anyway. There will always be economic ups and downs and the right time to buy is the right time for you.

It also depends on the price you're paying of course. You probably don't want to feel like it's going to dip quite a bit in value a year or two into the mortgage (at least I wouldn't anyway!). But again, prices can and do go up and down and it's not like you're buying to flip the house in a year or two.

guarcross

Withdrew from a house purchase today. Family home / long term house etc. Can't help feeling there is going to be prolonged and marked economic slowdown once this outbreak really hits in next 2-3 weeks and it will go on for months . We have not felt any of the effects yet and i just couldn't justify jumping in now and not waiting for a few months to see what happens.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Etray reviewer wrote: »

I’m within a couple of weeks of drawing down a mortgage. In the present climate of Coronavirus, any recommendations?

Buy if it will last you 5/10 as a worst case.

There's never a good time to buy. 2 years ago, people said Brexit, it has to slowdown, then Brexit again with delays, then Brexit won't be felt until 2021. Then this virus. Once you can afford it and it's in a good location then go for it.

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/mar/10/markets-coronavirus-donald-trump-tax-cut-ftse-dow-italy-crash-recovery-business-live

That was yesterday. It's gone again today. https://on.mktw.net/3cUsaHA