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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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awec

GreeBo wrote: »

Is that a fall in supply or demand though?

Demand. Ireland had an over-supply of properties fueled by super-easy-to-get credit during the tiger. Once that credit dried up, there was suddenly a large supply and low demand, so prices dropped.

fliball123

GreeBo wrote: »

The house spec is continually rising though, there are far more materials going into houses today than there were 15 years ago.

Not to mention the new health and safety and green codes new houses has to adhere to, sure it costs a fair whack just to have someone come out and tick the box to say the house has adhered to the above codes.

GreeBo

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

That doesnt make it over valued.
Why should a first time buyer have to live in Dublin?

The equivalent statement is that prices in Ballsbridge are overpriced because a single, first time buyer needs an income of €300K.
People need to accept that you cant always live where you want, no one can.

GreeBo

awec wrote: »

Demand. Ireland had an over-supply of properties fueled by super-easy-to-get credit during the tiger. Once that credit dried up, there was suddenly a large supply and low demand, so prices dropped.

sorry, Im talking about supply and demand of mortgages, not houses.

SozBbz

cnocbui wrote: »

Houses have an underlying basic cost of construction. If the market considers a house to be worth less than it costs to build, no one will build them.

I know this. Its other posters on this thread seem to think that there is a "correct" price for a house and that somehow that has to bear some relation to whether or not the average Joe/Josephine can afford it.

landofthetree

GreeBo wrote: »

That doesnt make it over valued.
Why should a first time buyer have to live in Dublin?

The equivalent statement is that prices in Ballsbridge are overpriced because a single, first time buyer needs an income of €300K.
People need to accept that you cant always live where you want, no one can.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/dublin-homes-among-least-affordable-in-europe-says-moodys-research-927874.html

Only Amsterdam,Paris and London are less affordable in Europe.

garhjw

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

High prices are driven by current lack of supply... They aren’t overvalued in the current market (prior to current scenario).

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

Not to mention the new health and safety and green codes new houses has to adhere to, sure it costs a fair whack just to have someone come out and tick the box to say the house has adhered to the above codes.

The cost of building a family home has risen 7.5 per cent to as much as €161,000 in the past year, according to new figures from a leading quantity surveyors group.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-of-building-a-new-family-home-rose-7-5-in-past-year-1.3624692?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fcost-of-building-a-new-family-home-rose-7-5-in-past-year-1.3624692

In blackrock they sell them for 1.25mil.

:D:D

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/blackrock/45-bed-semi-detached-the-carraig-no17-proby-p-blackrock-dublin-2433292/

Now even with land prices included they are making huge profits.

beauf

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

What it means is Dublin is out of reach of most people. Not that Dublin should be in reach of most people.

That Dublin shouldn't be up there with cost of more significant cities around the world is arguable.

landofthetree

garhjw wrote: »

High prices are driven by current lack of supply... They aren’t overvalued in the current market (prior to current scenario).

If the government built a lot more social housing over the last 4-5 years then they wouldn't be so high.

Its basically government policy to keep prices high.

Graham

Assetbacked wrote: »

3.5 times salary is affordability. Looking at median salaries, that renders prices in Ireland beyond affordable. Hence, correction.

By the same logic, BMWs are due a massive pricing correction any minute now.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

What it means is Dublin is out of reach of most people. Not that Dublin should be in reach of most people.

That Dublin shouldn't be up there with cost of more significant cities around the world is arguable.

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Also how many English people could afford to live in London or French people in Paris or Americans in New York?

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Bad planning is a big part of the problem.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_cities_proper_by_population_density

We need more high rise in the centre.

There is no shortage of land between the canals in Dublin to build on.

Roberto_gas

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Too conservative figure !

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

I think the fact that Dublin is the only English speaking capital in the Euro Union with Brexit does put Dublin up there as a significant city in the EU.

Also how many English people could afford to live in London or French people in Paris or Americans in New York?

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

384 trains depart from Paddington for Reading every day. This means you can expect trains to leave London every 5 to 10 minutes.

On an average weekday, there are 160 trains travelling from Slough to London Paddington. The journey time may be longer on weekends and holidays.

accensi0n

Knex. wrote: »

A single, first time buyer needs an income of about 120k to buy a house in Dublin.

It's hard not to say property is overvalued.

120 x 3.5 = 420

If on 120k and single, then can easily save at least a couple of grand a month. Have probably been working a number of years if on that salary. Would have a sizable deposit, let's say 60k (But probably more).

Looking at just south dublin city in daft, there's a fair few houses for a lot less than 480:
https://tinyurl.com/we468cz

landofthetree

Roberto_gas wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Too conservative figure !

Around 10-14 days ago people who claimed that on here were being called lunatics.

I agree its too conservative.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

Sure, but the London commuter belt is still very expensive, and you would need a good salary to buy a nice family home in a decent area.

Knex*

accensi0n wrote: »

120 x 3.5 = 420

If on 120k and single, then can easily save at least a couple of grand a month. Have probably been working a number of years if on that salary. Would have a sizable deposit, let's say 60k (But probably more).

Looking at just south dublin city in daft, there's a fair few houses for a lot less than 480:
https://tinyurl.com/we468cz

I don't think the issue is buying a house on that salary, it's actually obtaining the salary in the first place.

fliball123

landofthetree wrote: »

UK has much better public transport. You can live outside London and get trains till midnight.

It is also now outside the EU I think I would rather the bad transport and have the EU standing behind me than being able to get a train at midnight and have no where to go if the sh1t hits the fan. Not to mention any market/company/English speaking person who has a choice now between England and Ireland will more times than not choose Ireland

Knex*

Graham wrote: »

By the same logic, BMWs are due a massive pricing correction any minute now.

A little disconcerting that a moderator of this forum pulls out an analogy like this.

This country is in for a massive shock over the next year.

beauf

landofthetree wrote: »

Around 10-14 days ago people who claimed that on here were being called lunatics.

I agree its too conservative.

That's a strawman. People are saying it won't be that simple. But if you are only going to half read the discussion you can only hear what you want to hear.

People are also expecting to get huge discounts and still have access to the same buying power.

In the last crash there were massive reductions in the property prices, there where also massive reductions in transactions, people buying property.

Lots of people were militant in their beliefs rent freeze and rent protection zone would drop rents. Overall it did the opposite. I'm sure people will have selective memories about that also.

beauf

Knex. wrote: »

A little disconcerting that a moderator of this forum pulls out an analogy like this.

This country is in for a massive shock over the next year.

You don't understand the point he's making.

That prices will fall is a given. That's not what people are talking about.

landofthetree

fliball123 wrote: »

It is also now outside the EU I think I would rather the bad transport and have the EU standing behind me than being able to get a train at midnight and have no where to go if the sh1t hits the fan. Not to mention any market/company/English speaking person who has a choice now between England and Ireland will more times than not choose Ireland

London will be fine after Brexit.

Btw most of the "Brexit" stuff went to Amsterdam not Dublin.

Dubkin got feck all.

Also London still dwarfs Dublin when it comes to investment.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-7951455/London-retains-position-Europe-investment-Manchester-moves-30-cities.html

https://www.itproportal.com/news/london-leads-the-way-in-european-tech-investment/

Zenify

Financial times have a great article pretty much saying that we have made the same mistakes in the property/mortgage market as the last time (without saying it). Just a different structure.

"The mortgage Reits fund themselves by pledging bonds in return for cash in the short-term funding, or “repo”, markets, and have assets valued at as much as 10 times their common equity."

"The falling value of their mortgage bonds, driven down by the rush for cash and worries about defaults as the coronavirus leaves homeowners unemployed, has pushed the Reits past their leverage limits, forcing them to sell bonds into an already weak market. "

https://www.ft.com/content/18909cda-6d40-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

If you Google the title it may get around the paywall for you.

Mortgage investment funds become ‘epicentre’ of crisis

beauf

The broken clocks, this is your time to shine.

lawred2

landofthetree wrote: »

London will be fine after Brexit.

Btw most of the "Brexit" stuff went to Amsterdam not Dublin.

Dubkin got feck all.

well 'feck all' is clearly not the case... but there's a myriad Brexit threads for your hobby horse

beauf

Zenify wrote: »

Financial times have a great article pretty much saying that we have made the same mistakes in the property/mortgage market as the last time (without saying it). Just a different structure...

Very true.

Likewise the govt have poured fuel on the various crisis housing, etc just in different way. We have not been prudent.. again.

fliball123

landofthetree wrote: »

London will be fine after Brexit.

Btw most of the "Brexit" stuff went to Amsterdam not Dublin.

Dubkin got feck all.

Also London still dwarfs Dublin when it comes to investment.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-7951455/London-retains-position-Europe-investment-Manchester-moves-30-cities.html

https://www.itproportal.com/news/london-leads-the-way-in-european-tech-investment/

London will be fine after brexit really how do you know? They are now going through a double whammy of Brexit and Corona sounds like a bad menu for a party but London will be suffering a lot longer than any other capital in the EU.

one of your links are from last year. Also with the strategy of a lot more people working from home as has been seen through this epidemic has given businesses a new trajectory for doing business. People may no longer have to physically be in a location as in I can do business from here in London and vice versa. I can see a lot of companies going for low cost of living based countries/cities and keeping staff costs low and allowing them telecommute to the job in both London and Dublin and no one knows how this will impact globally going forward. So this blanket statement London will be ok is nonsense. Dublin will have the advantage of being the only English speaking capital in the EU so lets see what markets speak English as their first language??

combat14

House prices in Ireland could fall by as much as 20pc if the current economic upheaval caused by the spread of the coronavirus continues.

This is according to a report from Davy Stockbrokers, which suggests the financial markets have priced in a decline of 15-20pc in the value of homes.

Meanwhile, land values for house building purposes could fall by up to 50pc.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html