Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

sherology · 02-06-2020 3:56pm

HTCOne wrote: »

With 757 fleets being retired in the US and airlines needing to retrench to their core routes, Shannon likely has a very difficult year or two ahead of it.

EI's size, it's LR/330 fleet mix, and Ireland's relative (small) size may well be of benefit to EI as the US opens. The US majors are unlikely to start flying to Ireland until at least next year, and with their 757s in short supply they may leave EI to it and codeshare/interline. Same for smaller UK and euro routes. EI may benefit from dub-hub connections... IF IT'S SMART and gets out there at the right time. It's time to find ways to make as much money in cargo and connections as they possibly can on any passenger routes they bring back.

SNN... Lucky if it gets a LHR connection this year I think. If it were me... I'd run an owned (and we'll used, less important about cycles) a321 flight to Dublin and onto LHR (or AMS) and connect SNN folks onto whatever is available from Dublin (US and UK/EU wise) or onto a eurohub for further-a-field routes... Direct is less important this year as it'll just deliver passengers to other airlines at LHR and onto competition airlines. Get Ireland connected within EI and rebuild direct as people start moving again.

Van.Bosch · 02-06-2020 9:33pm

sherology wrote: »

EI's size, it's LR/330 fleet mix, and Ireland's relative (small) size may well be of benefit to EI as the US opens. The US majors are unlikely to start flying to Ireland until at least next year, and with their 757s in short supply they may leave EI to it and codeshare/interline. Same for smaller UK and euro routes. EI may benefit from dub-hub connections... IF IT'S SMART and gets out there at the right time. It's time to find ways to make as much money in cargo and connections as they possibly can on any passenger routes they bring back.

SNN... Lucky if it gets a LHR connection this year I think. If it were me... I'd run an owned (and we'll used, less important about cycles) a321 flight to Dublin and onto LHR (or AMS) and connect SNN folks onto whatever is available from Dublin (US and UK/EU wise) or onto a eurohub for further-a-field routes... Direct is less important this year as it'll just deliver passengers to other airlines at LHR and onto competition airlines. Get Ireland connected within EI and rebuild direct as people start moving again.

I don’t think it’s a case of things taking a few years to go back to normal. Airlines will have to reassess its entire operation and build it up step by step based on where they can make the most money. The operation in a few years may resemble S19 or it may look totally different and SNN may play a smaller role in EI than it did.

Cookiemunster · 02-06-2020 9:48pm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I don’t think it’s a case of things taking a few years to go back to normal. Airlines will have to reassess its entire operation and build it up step by step based on where they can make the most money. The operation in a few years may resemble S19 or it may look totally different and SNN may play a smaller role in EI than it did.

If US carriers are grounding their 757s early and EI were to be the only operator out of SNN to cross the Atlantic they'd get pretty profitable loads. They definitely have the metal to operate the routes. Obviously not this year, but it's possible in 2020.

Jack1985 · 02-06-2020 9:55pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

If US carriers are grounding their 757s early and EI were to be the only operator out of SNN to cross the Atlantic they'd get pretty profitable loads..

This is not a fact.

The unfortunate reality is the airlines themselves don't know what the future market will be. Estimating recovery dates are all well and good, but until a substantial relaxation in restrictions with free movement of people is fully restored it is essentially a guessing game on the numbers.

Aviation has and will be completely different, some airliners and airlines will never fly again and that is a fact.

Van.Bosch · 02-06-2020 10:14pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

If US carriers are grounding their 757s early and EI were to be the only operator out of SNN to cross the Atlantic they'd get pretty profitable loads. They definitely have the metal to operate the routes. Obviously not this year, but it's possible in 2020.

Potentially true but the question is can they make more ex-Dub with less risk.

billy few mates · 03-06-2020 12:05am

goingnowhere wrote: »

Thats where the A321 NEO comes in, cheaper to fly than the 757...

Operating costs are only a small part of the overall equation and slightly irrelevant at the moment with fuel costs so low and even more so when you're not actually flying, it's the monthly lease costs on a brand new A321LR that I'd be worried about.

goingnowhere · 03-06-2020 6:54am

billy few mates wrote: »

Operating costs are only a small part of the overall equation and slightly irrelevant at the moment with fuel costs so low and even more so when you're not actually flying, it's the monthly lease costs on a brand new A321LR that I'd be worried about.

So you need to fly, just bear in mind the cost today on fuel is low, but EI has hedged its fuel so is paying more than the current free market rate and will have to use up what it hedged before it can get to the current prices.

The 757's are gone, so no choice, the A321 is cheaper on fuel and should be a more reliable aircraft

WishUWereHere · 03-06-2020 11:16am

goingnowhere wrote: »

So you need to fly, just bear in mind the cost today on fuel is low, but EI has hedged its fuel so is paying more than the current free market rate and will have to use up what it hedged before it can get to the current prices.

The 757's are gone, so no choice, the A321 is cheaper on fuel and should be a more reliable aircraft

Hasn't Ryanair been hedging fuel for years , thus saving a fortune when prices are exhorbitant? Of course, AL won't use up their excess fuel if they don't put planes into the sky. Can I ask for how long ( under normal conditions) would AL/Ryanair have with their fuel stocks? Days/weeks/months?

dfx- · 03-06-2020 11:23am

Shamrockj wrote: »

DUB- ACE, AGP, ALC, CDG, FAO, FCO and PMI are all due to start back up on the 1st of July . With AMS, LHR and MAN increased plus the stobart routes. All subject to change of course.

This will be welcome from BHX. Current option is reassigned to LHR or MAN which isn't really feasible or the one Ryanair flight a day every few days..

Bussywussy · 03-06-2020 3:10pm

sherology wrote: »

The US majors are unlikely to start flying to Ireland until at least next year, and with their 757s in short supply they may leave EI to it and codeshare/interline.

This gave me a giggle.try July

goingnowhere · 03-06-2020 3:16pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Hasn't Ryanair been hedging fuel for years , thus saving a fortune when prices are exhorbitant? Of course, AL won't use up their excess fuel if they don't put planes into the sky. Can I ask for how long ( under normal conditions) would AL/Ryanair have with their fuel stocks? Days/weeks/months?

Flying to PEK helps...

https://www.aerotime.aero/rytis.beresnevicius/24948-iag-q1-2020-results

IAG set to lose $1.6 billion on fuel-hedging alone

IAG had 90% of its 2020 planned use hedged as did Ryanair. There was an event in the past where Ryanair hadn't hedged and was laughing when the price dropped. You hedge to avoid bumps, its the airline version of a fixed rate mortgage, it might go up or down but you are locked in. You can be damn sure when oil crashed through into negative pricing a few weeks back someone in Ryanair and IAG took what they could.

Within that is the question of what price are they hedged at. IAG and Ryanair have 90% approx but IAG is paying less. There is also the option held, a commitment to provide fuel at a set price or to commitment buy at that price. That has a huge impact, the second bankrupts you, the first saves you

Now would be a great time to be a start up as you will pay half what the incumbents are paying for the next year...

03-06-2020 3:46pm

sherology wrote: »

SNN... Lucky if it gets a LHR connection this year I think. If it were me... I'd run an owned (and we'll used, less important about cycles) a321 flight to Dublin and onto LHR (or AMS) and connect SNN folks onto whatever is available from Dublin (US and UK/EU wise) or onto a eurohub for further-a-field routes... Direct is less important this year as it'll just deliver passengers to other airlines at LHR and onto competition airlines. Get Ireland connected within EI and rebuild direct as people start moving again.

Why would you run a 212 seat aircraft from Shannon to Dublin ?

Would it not be better to fly an ATR 42/72 on that short flight and just let the passengers transfer in Dublin.

goingnowhere · 03-06-2020 4:47pm

Its been done with 300 seats in the past...

ATR is perfectly suited, the only case would be if you wanted to do SNN-DUB-LHR as in a stopover in both directions. EI hasn't done a scheduled stop over in years but is possible.

Van.Bosch · 03-06-2020 5:06pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Its been done with 300 seats in the past...

ATR is perfectly suited, the only case would be if you wanted to do SNN-DUB-LHR as in a stopover in both directions. EI hasn't done a scheduled stop over in years but is possible.

No one is really doing flights like that though in Europe are they? Most use the hub option.

03-06-2020 5:19pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Its been done with 300 seats in the past...

But that was when western TDs deliberately hamstrung Dublin and weren't able to recognise that the past was behind them and the future wanted to fly to Dublin direct.

HTCOne · 03-06-2020 7:00pm

Deleted User wrote: »

But that was when western TDs deliberately hamstrung Dublin and weren't able to recognise that the past was behind them and the future wanted to fly to Dublin direct.

It was also when Aeroflot, TWA, PAN AM etc flew to pretty much everywhere in the Americas via Shannon. You could fly down here with EI and connect on to places just not served from Dublin.

EchoIndia · 03-06-2020 7:38pm

HTCOne wrote: »

It was also when Aeroflot, TWA, PAN AM etc flew to pretty much everywhere in the Americas via Shannon. You could fly down here with EI and connect on to places just not served from Dublin.

Pan Am or TWA never had much of a direct service out of Ireland, in the jet age anyway, unless you are thinking of maybe the early 1960s.

HTCOne · 03-06-2020 8:13pm

EchoIndia wrote: »

Pan Am or TWA never had much of a direct service out of Ireland, in the jet age anyway, unless you are thinking of maybe the early 1960s.

They were on again off again until the mid to late 80s IIRC, I do seem to remember stuff from the West Coast stopped en route to Paris in particular for fuel, 707s and DC8s mainly. It wasn't until the 747-200 that central Europe-LAX became reliably in range for direct services IIRC, but by all means the memory might be acting up.

EchoIndia · 03-06-2020 8:32pm

TWA ceased scheduled Irish operations when they disposed of their 707s circa 1980 and in any case the service was DUB-SNN-JFK only. The flight number was TW877. Much was made of the first service in 1974:
https://www.irishphotoarchive.ie/gallery-image/1974-First-TWA-Flight-Direct-To-Dublin-G68/G0000cWarg5PZB9E/I0000X6o7rAWCFKo/C0000pxTKzz44hfw

Pan Am dropped out of the Irish scheduled market around the time of the first oil crisis and re-entered it on SNN-JFK in the mid-80s (flight PA33) with 747s and later A310s. You are right that lots of charters and the odd scheduled service stopped for fuel but such transit traffic didn't involve traffic rights IIRC. In the 1970s PA and TW and various supplemental operators did operate charters in and out of Ireland with a variety of 707 and DC-8 equipment - those were the days!

Marcusm · 03-06-2020 8:49pm

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Hasn't Ryanair been hedging fuel for years , thus saving a fortune when prices are exhorbitant? Of course, AL won't use up their excess fuel if they don't put planes into the sky. Can I ask for how long ( under normal conditions) would AL/Ryanair have with their fuel stocks? Days/weeks/months?

The hedges don’t involve taking delivery of fuel. That is acquired, generally at spot or prevailing prices, at the particular airport. FR is upside down on its fuel hedging, ie contracted at higher than spot rates and will suffer losses as a result.

Tenger · 03-06-2020 9:07pm

As regards Shannon and EI potentially “getting the drop“ on the US3 with their A321LRs.
Keep in mind that in 2010-11 EI were content to drop ‘profitable’ routes in favour of ‘more profitable’ routes elsewhere.
They only have 4 A321LR. Assigning 2 to Shannon may not be their best use of resources. I can see 1 there with the other 3 in Dublin.

goingnowhere · 03-06-2020 9:14pm

Can't see more than 1 A321 in SNN to be honest

3 day a week JFK, 4 day a week BOS
LHR 7 days in AM gap
Swap the aircraft at LHR to avoid empty flights SNN-DUB

Be a good deal to be honest

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 03-06-2020 9:17pm

Sad to see the LCY route gone for EI/WX.

Is the Avro property of EI or WX?

L1011 · 03-06-2020 9:22pm

WX.

Hairy Japanese BASTARDS! · 03-06-2020 9:24pm

L1011 wrote: »

WX.

Are the staff EI staff?

What'll happen to the staff who operated the DUB LCY route?

What if the pilot is only Avro type rated?

goingnowhere · 03-06-2020 9:36pm

LCY was entirely staffed by CityJet, they just changed the livery, they still had WX flight numbers in the system

And the bank owns the aircraft, the scrap man won't be long.

I doubt we will ever see CityJet flying again out of Dublin

I'd wager Stobart getting a few more E jets and getting the gig if business comes back, BACF is offloading its E170's which would be ideal and EI could get them thanks to IAG and do a lease deal with Stobart

L1011 · 03-06-2020 10:14pm

Some aftermarket for them as the last off the line, water bombers or combi conversions for unpaved runways in the far North. They won't all get cut up

troyzer · 04-06-2020 3:22pm

I've been waiting just shy of three months for my voucher now. My mother in law applied for hers weeks after mine and had it in days.

Baffling.

sherology · 04-06-2020 6:28pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Its been done with 300 seats in the past...

ATR is perfectly suited, the only case would be if you wanted to do SNN-DUB-LHR as in a stopover in both directions. EI hasn't done a scheduled stop over in years but is possible.

The idea was to 'connect' passengers onto and from other EI/other flights at Dublin (hence a larger airframe to cater for a daily load of west-coasters... owned by EI... and close to it's end of life so take-off and landing cycles are less depreciating vs. leased a320s) and then continue onto LHR with DUB passenger pick-up... replacing one of the DUB-LHR directs... Stobart is a franchise partner so not sure if they are 'as cost effective' when EI staff and airframes are sitting underused... ATR perfectly fine of only a small number of passengers... If a daily load of connectors are flying from SNN... A larger frame or the ability (inside EI) to operate a larger frame would make more sense.

My point was... If no direct services from SNN... Connect SNN into DUB... Then onto ((and from) UK/EU/US routes early in the AM. Remember... Public transport to DUB is pretty slim now too. Not easy to get to DUB (and we all don't drive!!!). If you stay on an aircraft then you're not transferring through an airport to get into another aircraft... That's decreasing the person to person contacts and movements... Keeping unnecessary contacts to a minimum.... Fewer active airframes to deep-clean... Plus SNN cargo can be lifted direct to DUB and/or onto LHR/AMS etc.

Just how I would do it to keep SNN serviced for now. And Cork if their direct LHR route has low volumes.

Just until people start to move again. I have had 3 nephews and nieces return from OZ and AISA... And getting 'home' from DUB has been the hardest part with endless checkpoints, who's going to collect, how are going to distance on the car etc.

billy few mates · 04-06-2020 11:35pm

Marcusm wrote: »

The hedges don’t involve taking delivery of fuel. That is acquired, generally at spot or prevailing prices, at the particular airport. FR is upside down on its fuel hedging, ie contracted at higher than spot rates and will suffer losses as a result.

Just because it looks like a bad decision to hedge the fuel now doesn't mean it was the wrong decision at the time, this is standard practice, nobody saw this coming.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/ryanair-says-fuel-hedges-will-dent-profit-by-325-million

Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

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