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Lions Tour

191012141582

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,498 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    Keenan better than Hogg and Williams. Right.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,498 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    Saw this on Planet Rugby Forum - somebody put together stats for likely Lions tourists.

    https://contenthubble.com/playground/lions-selection/

    Makes for some very interesting reading.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Keenan better than Hogg and Williams. Right.

    In fairness, it was "better this season" - I don't think either Hogg or Williams have set the world on fire this seaon.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,837 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    who are you thinking?

    i expect only hogg, watson and DVDM

    i wouldnt be surprised to see russell left at home, but may get the nod if biggar / farrell / sexton gets ruled out through injury.

    Price is one of many at the same level behind murray.. so hes up against davies / williams / webb / youngs / JGP and even DC.

    price will miss out because he doesnt have the kicking game that his competitors have, and gatland will be kicking the leather off the ball .. and playing 3 full backs as his back three in the test games. Steel could very well be scotlands 9 in the next 6Ns. I wouldnt be surprised to see murray, davies and JGP actually travelling. Youngs star has fallen badly imo.

    Gray isnt even in the same room as henderson currently. he can tackle and catch a line out, but thats where his impact ends. hes AWJ lite.
    Itoje, AWJ, Henderson and Ryan .. with beirne as a 5.5

    sutherland probably would have travelled, but wont now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,269 ✭✭✭Thrashssacre


    Saw this on Planet Rugby Forum - somebody put together stats for likely Lions tourists.

    https://contenthubble.com/playground/lions-selection/

    Makes for some very interesting reading.

    Makes good reading if your Ronan kelleher.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Louis Friend


    It’s gas that the fixtures still haven’t been confirmed but the squad is being announced in a week’s time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,498 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    Makes good reading if your Ronan kelleher.

    It really does, especially when you factor in the amount of minutes played.

    Henderson cones out of it very, very well, as does Beirne.


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198



    ringrose was very good up until the scotland game and it looked like he was playing with an injury, i think he gets an awful lot of unjust stick too tbh, hes a phenomenal player when he has any bit of form. all three are much better than harris with any bit of form going

    I bring Davies/Henshaw//Harris/Ringrose as my centres, I think it’s a great of players and styles with Slade missing out. I think Slade and Ringrose are very similar players at times and I’ll give it Ringrose purely because of how highly I rate his defensive work.

    I think Farrell goes as one of three 10s, my gut says sexton and biggar are the other two but then I think should you really bring the same type of 10 three times and leave Russell at home

    This only means I’ve only got 6 back 3 players which includes Johnny May over VDM


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭theVersatile


    I thought Hamish's 14 broken through tackles was fairly impressive, and then I got to DVDM. Thirty two, Jesus Christ.

    Some interesting trends across the board though. Welsh starters generally lead the tackle counts - product of high minutes with little time for subs and a lot of time defending. Lots of penalties against English forwards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    Personally if I was picking a Lions squad I'd have three Scots at the absolute most, and that's only if Sutherland is fit in time. Otherwise it would just be Hogg and Watson. Russell would also go if Sexton was ruled out.

    However, the reality is that with Townsend involved they're going to get a few token tourists this time, I can't see there being less than five, Scottish rugby fans are expecting six or seven.

    The honest truth though is that if Ali Price represented any of the countries involved other than Scotland he wouldn't even be in the discussion, most likely because he wouldn't have an international cap to his name. There are at least three Welsh scrum halfs who are better than him for starters, as well as Murray, Youngs and probably Cooney.

    Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

    The squad is already going to be carrying one wing who can't defend in Rees-Zammit, it would be extremely risky to take a second in Van Der Merwe. However, again, I think he may go as a Townsend selection and play some midweek games.

    The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting a test.

    Fagerson in the front row is a step down on any of Furlong, Porter or Sinckler. However, again, because he is a regular international starter he has an advantage over Porter - although Porter's ability to play both sides of the scrum may benefit him.

    I think I saw Matt Fagerson's name mentioned a few posts up. Honestly I don't think he'd make a list of the 15 best back row players available to Gatland here.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,564 ✭✭✭RugbyLover123


    Unless Russell isn’t in Townsend’s Scotland plans long term there is no way he doesn’t tour. Can you imagine the dynamic in that Scottish camp come November if Townsend was bigging him up as one of the best 10s in the world a few months back and then doesn’t bring him on the Lions.

    I personally think Russell is vastly over rated but it is quite amusing to see a lot of pros/ex pros pick him at 10 when they are asked.

    Seems to be a bit of a media push towards Scotland being well represented when people need to remember they still came 4th..

    Personally I’d only bring Hogg & Watson. But I can see those 2, Russell, DVM & Price at least going.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,952 ✭✭✭TRC10



    Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

    That's just nonsense. Just because he's not a flashy, athletic 2nd row like Itoje or Ryan doesn't mean he's average. If you look at his stats, some of his numbers are ridiculous. And he's a very important player for the current European champions. You need a workhorse in the 2nd row who gets through a mountain of work and thats what Gray does. Exeter are a very well run club with a fantastic coach, they don't go around signing average players.

    You may have a case with some of the others lads you named but calling Gray average is utter nonsense.


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198



    The honest truth though is that if Ali Price represented any of the countries involved other than Scotland he wouldn't even be in the discussion, most likely because he wouldn't have an international cap to his name. There are at least three Welsh scrum halfs who are better than him for starters, as well as Murray, Youngs and probably Cooney.

    Similarly Jonny Average in the second row is only considered alongside the likes of Henderson for selection because he's a regular for Scotland, in terms of ability he should be nowhere near the plane.

    The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting 13.

    I think you’re vastly underestimating this Scottish, they aren’t world beaters, but neither are Ireland right now and we happily pick 10 Irish tourists with plenty more unlucky souls.

    Now I’m not saying Ali Price is the finished article at 9 but it’s a position of relative weakness for the Lions and he’s comfortably deserving of his place in the conversation, Gareth Davies is an incredibly similar player so I’m not sure how you can include one as reasonable and the other as not and Hardy has been in good form but is effectively an unknown in test match situations. There’s a big step down below Murray and it’ll be really interesting to see who’s picked.

    Another poster addressed the unfairness with which you treated Jonny Gray so I’ll just echo his post on that. A bit of grit and hard work will be essential on this tour.

    Lastly, Harris has become the lynchpin in the Scottish defence that’s been vastly improved and whilst he isn’t as flashy as the rest of that back line he is a very good ball carrier as well. If Tandy is looking for someone to secure his defensive system, Harris is the perfect man.


    Jonny Gray and the Fagerson brothers may miss out due to the strength of depth in their positions. But all of the named Scots are in the conversation on merit of what they bring to the table not because theyre scottish


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    I fully agree that Gray gets through a lot of work in matches, his tackle stats in particular are impressive. Is that enough for selection though - he's up against some of the world's best second rows here? For me, no, if he goes it won't be because he's one of the best available second rows, it will be for balance in terms of spread across the four countries, unless there is a spate of second row injuries at some point.

    Incidentally if Ireland have 10 tourists I think we'll be doing quite well and I don't think there will be many that should count themselves unlucky. Earls is one who I think deserves to go but won't. He's a better all round winger than some that will travel ahead of him and he can cover a few positions in a pinch. Aside from him though I have hope that we'll be fairly represented on the plane.

    But, in terms of comparing Ireland and Scotland, your comparing a squad full of grand slam winners with a squad that haven't been in contention going in to the final day of the tournament during any of these players' international careers. They have the same problem when you put them head to head with the English and Welsh players too. Those players have all been there and done it at international level whereas with Scotland you have a squad that came fourth in the 6 nations this year and it was another case of could haves and should haves (or shouldn't haves, in Zander Fagerson's case).

    There's a danger of assuming that, just because they're not as bad as they used to be, they have a squad that's the equivalent of the other three countries. However, I think the reality is that they'll probably be fourth or worse in the 6 nations once again next year.

    My current expectation is that half a dozen Scots will travel and, other than Hogg, they'll be playing their rugby for the midweek team (or, since there are fewer games now, not playing at all once the serious rugby starts).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,262 ✭✭✭sprucemoose



    However, the reality is that with Townsend involved they're going to get a few token tourists this time, I can't see there being less than five, Scottish rugby fans are expecting six or seven.
    I am quite worried that you might be right on this one
    The squad is already going to be carrying one wing who can't defend in Rees-Zammit, it would be extremely risky to take a second in Van Der Merwe. However, again, I think he may go as a Townsend selection and play some midweek games.

    The fact that Harris is even in the discussion here concerns me in terms of where the squad is at with 13s. He may travel as a token pick but there's more chance of a 12 moving across to play 13 than there is of Harris starting a test.
    Bit harsh on LRZ, he seems fine to me so far. Correct about Harris though, could easily see Henshaw moving to 13 if Farrell goes as a 12


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,625 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I wonder what the chances are of it being 10. Biggar 12. Farrell 13. Henshaw.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 910 ✭✭✭Ciaran-Irl


    I think people are discussing the squad based on an assumption of a normal sized squad. Given that, 1. Gatland went with 41 last time around (vs 37 in Australia and 36 in previous years), and 2. The possibility of Covid restrictions making it harder to fly in players, it seems inevitable to me that the close calls between player x and player y won't happen. They'll probably both go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198


    Gatland has said he’s looking to name a smaller squad (36) than previous because of Covid, easier to keep the touring party safe over there if there’s less of them and then can fly someone over if required (although you’re right that this does bring its own risks)


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,837 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    update on edinburgh game:
    Dear Syd

    As a ticket purchaser for The Vodafone Lions 1888 Cup, we are writing to you regarding your tickets for the Lions v Japan match at BT Murrayfield in Edinburgh on Saturday 26 June.

    Unfortunately given the ongoing public health safety measures around the coronavirus pandemic, it is looking increasingly likely that a full capacity crowd is not going to be permitted and a significant reduction in spectators at this match will be required. We are continuing to work with the Scottish Government, Scottish Rugby and public health authorities to confirm capacity and finalise operational plans for getting spectators into the venue safely. We thank you for your patience and will update you as soon as we have further information.

    As a reminder, if you are refunded, we will follow the process as set out in the Ticket Terms and Conditions and refund ticketholders in the order according to the time and date when tickets were purchased within each category. The full face value of the tickets would be refunded, minus the Order Processing Fee of £2.75.

    Thank you for your continued understanding and support.

    Best wishes,
    The British & Irish Lions


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,952 ✭✭✭TRC10


    I fully agree that Gray gets through a lot of work in matches, his tackle stats in particular are impressive. Is that enough for selection though - he's up against some of the world's best second rows here? For me, no, if he goes it won't be because he's one of the best available second rows, it will be for balance in terms of spread across the four countries, unless there is a spate of second row injuries at some point.

    If Beirne goes as a 6, Gray get's in. If Beirne goes as a lock, Gray misses out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    THFC198 wrote: »
    Gatland has said he’s looking to name a smaller squad (36) than previous because of Covid, easier to keep the touring party safe over there if there’s less of them and then can fly someone over if required (although you’re right that this does bring its own risks)

    Part of me wonders if there might be a late change of mind on this approach. Last time around there was a late decision to add four additional spaces to the squad if I remember correctly.

    On first reading the current approach makes sense, fewer players should mean reduced risk. But, given the likelihood of having to add call ups if they go with the 36 as suggested, and looking at how difficult that's going to be in terms of the bubble they'll be in and players potentially coming in from outside the bubble mid-tour, it might make more sense to just start with a few extra bodies in the squad.

    A certain amount of this can be dealt with by picking more versatile players (Elliot Daly or Earls for instance in the backs, or North before his injury, Beirne and Henderson in the forwards also) but the extra spaces might be used to bring say, an extra two sided prop (like Porter), an extra hooker, an extra scrum half and all four of the obvious candidates at 10.

    With those players added in you could reduce the likelihood of late call ins to an absolute minimum but still keep the squad to 39 or 40 players.


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198


    I suppose the argument against that suggestion would be that you’re taking that guarenteed risk of a bigger squad and could still end up calling up loads of players anyway cause you just can’t tell what positions you’d need


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭THFC198


    Loosehead is another interesting position with Wyn Jones as the standout at the moment and probably 3 places going. Mako would’ve been a lock 12 months ago but was so poor in the 6N, Sutherland was very impressive until his injury that seems to have scuppered his shot, Healy doesn’t have the impact he used to have but is still a very good player, Genge has that huge impact but can give away some silly mistakes, Marler whilst out of the international scene has been ripping up trees for Quins and would be a great great tourist as seen in 2017 when he went as a midweek player as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 367 ✭✭OneLungDavy


    THFC198 wrote: »
    Loosehead is another interesting position with Wyn Jones as the standout at the moment and probably 3 places going. Mako would’ve been a lock 12 months ago but was so poor in the 6N, Sutherland was very impressive until his injury that seems to have scuppered his shot, Healy doesn’t have the impact he used to have but is still a very good player, Genge has that huge impact but can give away some silly mistakes, Marler whilst out of the international scene has been ripping up trees for Quins and would be a great great tourist as seen in 2017 when he went as a midweek player as well.
    Genge had a good game last night and certainly offers something the others don't. I've a feeling he's on the plane :mad:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    update on edinburgh game:

    So they pocket £2.75 for nothing. That's a disgrace.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,790 ✭✭✭✭Burkie1203




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,721 ✭✭✭✭Squidgy Black


    Burkie1203 wrote: »

    Two Lions tours he's had to withdraw from because of family reasons, the universe really has it out for Youngs.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,837 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Don't think he was travelling tbh


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Don't think he was travelling tbh

    Had a great chance. Was a test Lion in 2013 and named on 2017 before withdrawing. Given the compete lack of standout options, he was a really strong candidate, I think.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭The Inbetween is mine


    Didn't fancy being backup to Murray I guess.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,726 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    I'd be shocked if he's the only player to pull themselves out of contention


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,837 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Buer wrote: »
    Had a great chance. Was a test Lion in 2013 and named on 2017 before withdrawing. Given the compete lack of standout options, he was a really strong candidate, I think.

    maybe, hes had a miserable year though.... and hes finding it difficult to get back to being 1st choice 9 at leicester

    murray is the stand out candidate, even if hes not hitting his previous heights.


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    maybe, hes had a miserable year though.... and hes finding it difficult to get back to being 1st choice 9 at leicester

    murray is the stand out candidate, even if hes not hitting his previous heights.

    He has barely been available for Leicester. Last night was the first time he has been on the bench for them this season and he was excellent when he came on. Wigglesworth starting was a tactical approach, I imagine and it was abandoned when it wasn't working.

    He hasn't had a brilliant season for England but he hasn't been one of their poorer players either. I can't remember a year where there were worse options at 9. Anyone who toured before had a headstart, I reckon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    Murray plus two from Davies, Williams and Price then for the scrum half spots I guess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    AdamD wrote: »
    I'd be shocked if he's the only player to pull themselves out of contention

    Surprisingly, according to the BBC, he is the only player from the 50 or so players to receive a shortlisting email from the Lions to rule himself out.

    It's possible others may do so at a later stage I guess, but it would be poor enough form given that they've now all been given advance notice that they're in contention.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Louis Friend


    Lockdown’s been a pain in arse for most people…maybe the Lions hopefuls are like everyone else and craving a bit of craic on a tour of somewhere different?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,726 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Lockdown’s been a pain in arse for most people…maybe the Lions hopefuls are like everyone else and craving a bit of craic on a tour of somewhere different?

    This is exactly why I thought players would pull out. Lockdown has been a pain the arse, people have been restricted from seeing their familes, some of these players have spent months in bubbles etc. Now their countries are opening up, they'll get a chance to see their families etc. but instead they'll get sent off in another lengthy bubble to a country under stricter restrictions.

    Doesn't sound great so the money must be good.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Louis Friend


    AdamD wrote: »
    This is exactly why I thought players would pull out. Lockdown has been a pain the arse, people have been restricted from seeing their familes, some of these players have spent months in bubbles etc. Now their countries are opening up, they'll get a chance to see their families etc. but instead they'll get sent off in another lengthy bubble to a country under stricter restrictions.

    Doesn't sound great so the money must be good.

    The money’s not that good TBH.

    They get around £70k plus bonuses if they win Test matches.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,231 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    I doubt anyone will be skipping the Lions because they want to visit their granny. They'll be dying to be picked, just like always.

    Also, pro rugby players have had a very different (and much better) lockdown to the rest of us.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 6,545 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sheep Shagger


    The money’s not that good TBH.

    They get around £70k plus bonuses if they win Test matches.

    Not bad for the time frame involved.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 367 ✭✭OneLungDavy


    I've seen too much of my family over this lockdown. What I'd give for two months away in South Africa.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,812 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    As a fan I'm looking forward to watching the matches on TV...BUT...the whole idea of this Lions "tour" is ridiculous IMO.

    Usually you go on a Lions tour and you have the trip of a lifetime. These guys will be confined to their hotels when they arent playing, training or travelling. They will likely be playing in front of empty stadiums as well.

    If I was 30+ and had already experienced one or two Lions tours and had a wife and family back home I'd be giving it serious thought about whether this was something I'd want to do.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Louis Friend


    I think Sexton’s a decent example.

    I’d be surprised if he’s not gagging to go. Twilight of his career so last chance saloon, plus he gets to be one of the few players to go on all three tours.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 438 ✭✭The_Dave


    I've seen too much of my family over this lockdown. What I'd give for two months away in South Africa.
    2 months of being flogged in training and then back to a hotel with little scope for much else from what I gather


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    Wouldn't say no to £70k plus bonuses for two months work personally anyway.

    Not to mention the benefit for the players of having the Lions selection on the CV the next time contract negotiations at club level roll around.

    For some of the top earners it's possibly not huge money but for others, especially those contracted to Welsh and Scottish Union run sides, it will be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 289 ✭✭redmca2


    Yesterday's result for Leinster against La Rochelle probably will lessen the chances of Ryan, Ringrose, Kelleher, and others who were long sots anyway VDF and Keenan


  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    redmca2 wrote: »
    Yesterday's result for Leinster against La Rochelle probably will lessen the chances of Ryan, Ringrose, Kelleher, and others who were long sots anyway VDF and Keenan

    I don't think Kelleher did his chances any harm yesterday. He may not have particularly enhanced them but he was 100% from his throws and carried well. Only Vito and VDF made more tackles than him. I think he can be relatively pleased with his contribution.

    I'd put him as slight outsider anyway to be selected but I'd say McBryde will be pushing his case in the meetings.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,038 ✭✭✭TomsOnTheRoof


    redmca2 wrote: »
    Yesterday's result for Leinster against La Rochelle probably will lessen the chances of Ryan, Ringrose, Kelleher, and others who were long sots anyway VDF and Keenan

    Funnily enough, even before yesterday's game I would have said that Keenan would have had the best shout out of that group, possibly after Ryan. Keenan has been superb this season and I'd have him second only to Hogg at 15 in Britain or Ireland. Probable Irish tourists for me would be:

    1. Sexton
    2. Murray
    3. Furlong
    4. Henderson
    5. Stander
    6. Beirne
    7. Keenan

    Edit: For the life of me I don't know how I forgot Henshaw. He's another who's as close to being a definite pick as possible.

    After that you have fellas like Ryan and Ringrose who have definitely fallen down the pecking order in recent months. Ryan also has to compete for a position in an area which is very strong. The selection on Thursday should be very interesting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,501 ✭✭✭swiwi_


    My enthusiasm for this lions series is about 1/10. I’ll watch the tests and that’s it. I know I should be more interested but I cant even be arsed to try and pick a squad. When you compare the series vs the classics like 1989, 2001 etc it’s just not the same any more.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,416 ✭✭✭Dave_The_Sheep


    My interest this year, as someone who usually really enjoys it, is at rock bottom too.


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