Hurricane Dorian

fits · 03-09-2019 11:54am

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168774711549059073

Frightening stuff

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 12:02pm

fits wrote: »

Frightening stuff

Abaco spent a relatively short time under the strongest winds too - things on Grand Bahama must be worse

BorneTobyWilde · 03-09-2019 1:55pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Seen some footage on twitter of the abaco islands, my god they are no more. Flattened.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168704479451107328

Who is responsible for Abaco Island? Who owns it, America? Britain ?

highdef · 03-09-2019 2:01pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Who is responsible for Abaco Island? Who owns it, America? Britain ?

Commonwealth of the Bahamas

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 2:01pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Who is responsible for Abaco Island? Who owns it, America? Britain ?

The Bahamas do

BorneTobyWilde · 03-09-2019 2:06pm

highdef wrote: »

Commonwealth of the Bahamas

So they're on their own then? No one will help them..

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2019 2:15pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

EDIT: it's now well below those intensity forecast points, so it could have actually lost hurricane status by Friday.

Live hard, die fast?

Kermit.de.frog · 03-09-2019 2:21pm

fits wrote: »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168774711549059073

Frightening stuff

This is why I hate fake news.

That could well be a real genuine video but i'm always suspicious.

fits · 03-09-2019 2:22pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is why I hate fake news.

That could well be a real genuine video but i'm always suspicious.

Me too actually. Broadsheet.ie retweeted it so i didnt check, I cant verify that its authentic.

Stop moaning ffs · 03-09-2019 2:33pm

The second floor. I hope there’s a serious an sustained effort to help these people rebuild when this is over

https://twitter.com/newsbreaking/status/1168663528292532224?s=21

BumperD · 03-09-2019 2:36pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

So they're on their own then? No one will help them..

Lots will help them Toby. There is a Caribbean task force who all come to aid of any country hit in the region. They will supply power workers from countries not affected (from Bermuda all the way as far south as the ABC islands off Venezuela) to restore electricity/ utilities, police to restore law and order , medical staff, loss adjusters to get insurance money flowing rapidly to aid recovery efforts. I live in the region and know some of this is underway. The US are already in there assisting with med Evacs. They also have a combined risk pool in the region for Catastrophic cover so that cash will be released. All this before donations / Red Cross etc etc arrive. There are recovery ships heading there I posted a link above of the UK one that forward deploys each May. Unfortunately storms hit every year in the region though with modern technology we are seeing it live and unfold like never before and some are far worse than others .

miamee · 03-09-2019 2:37pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The second floor. I hope there’s a serious an sustained effort to help these people rebuild when this is over

https://twitter.com/newsbreaking/status/1168663528292532224?s=21

That is terrifying.

GBX · 03-09-2019 2:39pm

Satellite images of the Bahamas

https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393

NIMAN · 03-09-2019 2:45pm

So basically nothing left?

All gone?

I take everything I see reported now online with a pinch of salt. There are too many inaccurate photos, videos, Facebook posts etc out there.

artanevilla · 03-09-2019 2:49pm

The water would not be that colour in the wake of such destruction.

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 2:54pm

fits wrote: »

Me too actually. Broadsheet.ie retweeted it so i didnt check, I cant verify that its authentic.

Best way to arm yourself against potentially fake or misconstrued news is to just do a bit of digging.

There's a shipping container in that video marked Duke, which is probably from this company:
http://www.unitedabacoshipping.com/

Additionally you can see lots of modern cars in the video, which narrows the date range. One or two of the cars (particularly the silver car at 7 seconds) have a bright blue/green license plate, which matches what you'll see on a quick Google search.

For me that's enough to reassure that this is genuine (not to mention it matches other clearly genuine videos from elsewhere).

sparrowcar · 03-09-2019 2:57pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Best way to arm yourself against potentially fake or misconstrued news is to just do a bit of digging.

There's a shipping container in that video marked Duke, which is probably from this company:
http://www.unitedabacoshipping.com/

Additionally you can see lots of modern cars in the video, which narrows the date range. One or two of the cars (particularly the silver car at 7 seconds) have a bright blue/green license plate, which matches what you'll see on a quick Google search.

For me that's enough to reassure that this is genuine (not to mention it matches other clearly genuine videos from elsewhere).

If I ever suspect the wife of anything I'm calling you to investigate....

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 2:58pm

artanevilla wrote: »

The water would not be that colour in the wake of such destruction.

It's not a satellite photo, it's a radar image, and it's tragically real:

https://twitter.com/Meteor_Mike/status/1168869260266999808

Mickeroo · 03-09-2019 2:59pm

artanevilla wrote: »

The water would not be that colour in the wake of such destruction.

It's likely a false colour composite of a radar image if it's real considering the storm would have still been overhead at the time it was taken if I'm not mistaken....

josip · 03-09-2019 3:06pm

While that photo may be enhanced and coloured, it's well within the bounds of reality.
Grand Bahama has a maximum height above sea level of 10m.
Dorian had a storm surge of 6-7m
It seems strange that the island and Abaco (11m ASL) wasn't fully evacuated before the storm hit.

JCX BXC · 03-09-2019 3:09pm

Also, the road markings are conveniently placed in the first photo for added effect.

Why you'd need to further dramatise such a shocking wipeout is beyond me.

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 3:13pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Also, the road markings are conveniently placed in the first photo for added effect.

Why you'd need to further dramatise such a shocking wipeout is beyond me.

The road markings in the video are useful for showing where the built-up areas are.

Graces7 · 03-09-2019 3:19pm

BumperD wrote: »

Lots will help them Toby. There is a Caribbean task force who all come to aid of any country hit in the region. They will supply power workers from countries not affected (from Bermuda all the way as far south as the ABC islands off Venezuela) to restore electricity/ utilities, police to restore law and order , medical staff, loss adjusters to get insurance money flowing rapidly to aid recovery efforts. I live in the region and know some of this is underway. The US are already in there assisting with med Evacs. They also have a combined risk pool in the region for Catastrophic cover so that cash will be released. All this before donations / Red Cross etc etc arrive. There are recovery ships heading there I posted a link above of the UK one that forward deploys each May. Unfortunately storms hit every year in the region though with modern technology we are seeing it live and unfold like never before and some are far worse than others .

Thank you for this assurance and comfort in this appalling situation.

Just came on to thank our stalwart and always expert and accurate weather folk here. For this thread. For up to date news, all though and beyond. Always dependable. Blessings and thanks

MJohnston · 03-09-2019 3:34pm

BumperD wrote: »

Lots will help them Toby. There is a Caribbean task force who all come to aid of any country hit in the region. They will supply power workers from countries not affected (from Bermuda all the way as far south as the ABC islands off Venezuela) to restore electricity/ utilities, police to restore law and order , medical staff, loss adjusters to get insurance money flowing rapidly to aid recovery efforts. I live in the region and know some of this is underway. The US are already in there assisting with med Evacs. They also have a combined risk pool in the region for Catastrophic cover so that cash will be released. All this before donations / Red Cross etc etc arrive. There are recovery ships heading there I posted a link above of the UK one that forward deploys each May. Unfortunately storms hit every year in the region though with modern technology we are seeing it live and unfold like never before and some are far worse than others .

To be slightly cynical too - there are a lot of financial 'interests' in the Bahamas (one of the highest GDPs in the Americas!) which makes it much more likely to receive support compared to say Puerto Rico.

BumperD · 03-09-2019 4:29pm

MJohnston wrote: »

To be slightly cynical too - there are a lot of financial 'interests' in the Bahamas (one of the highest GDPs in the Americas!) which makes it much more likely to receive support compared to say Puerto Rico.

You may well have a point but I think humanity takes over. Haiti after the quake a few years back was flooded with aid. Anyway slightly off topic but I take your point

Gaoth Laidir · 03-09-2019 4:35pm

Down to 95 knots (Cat 2) now.

Gaoth Laidir · 03-09-2019 6:06pm

It's a complete mess now. Max surface winds a few minutes ago barely 75 knots and max flight level winds max 85 knots. Central pressure 958 hPa. We should see it reduced to CAT 1 by the 10 pm update.

sdanseo · 03-09-2019 6:10pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's a complete mess now. Max surface winds a few minutes ago barely 75 knots and max flight level winds max 85 knots. Central pressure 958 hPa. We should see it reduced to CAT 1 by the 10 pm update.

If it gets a couple 100 km north, over warmer water again will it re-intensify or fizzle our entirely?

Gaoth Laidir · 03-09-2019 6:26pm

sdanseo wrote: »

If it gets a couple 100 km north, over warmer water again will it re-intensify or fizzle our entirely?

Unlikely. Increased shear and drier air were always going to cause weakening anyway.

star gazer · 03-09-2019 7:22pm

Dorian is finally starting to pick up a small bit of speed away from Grand Bahama island. The people there have had to endure such a prolonged, devastating impact.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NWS Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 78.7 West.
Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a
slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is
expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of
Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then
move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1168945270253588483

Hurricane Dorian

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