Hurricane Dorian

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1168982022024519680?s=19

Gaoth Laidir

I wouldn't be putting much stock on what that twitter account says. It's a clickbait site run by an individual in Miami. Josh has gone radio silent after hurricanes plenty of times before and I'm sure this is no different.

pad199207

Yup Josh is alive and well in Nassau

BumperD

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nVHXu3Ie2lc


Abaco Island Arial footage this afternoon.

highdef

I'm so happy that my existence is not dependent on the regularity of my postings on social media! If so, I'd have search parties out looking for me at least once or twice a week.

pad199207

Eye looks to be redeveloping again on Dorian as it moves away from The Bahamas.

Slight strengthening Probably will occur with possible Category 3 status again.
Could go back to 4, with the way the surprises are coming you wouldn’t know these days.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We should see it reduced to CAT 1 by the 10 pm update.

Wrong. Your stock-in-trade seems to be downplaying severe weather events. A misplaced confidence at best.

Kermit.de.frog

Western eye wall becoming better defined again as Dorian is tapping warmer water and has left land behind. This is probably an indication the storm is going to strengthen somewhat...

Gaoth Laidir

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Wrong. Your stock-in-trade seems to be downplaying severe weather events. A misplaced confidence at best.

Pressure has risen to 964 hPa, winds are max 80 knots, yet they're still keeping it at 95 knots, even if they admit that "it may be a little generous" in their latest discussion. I'm not downplaying anything, just interpreting the data I see. They're seeing this too but are reluctant to call it as there's a big significance to making it just a CAT 1 after all the preparations and evacuations in Florida.



Their latest forecast chart shows tropical storm force (34 knots) winds already well inland of eastern Florida, yet actual surface observations are showing only up to 20-25 knots along the coastal airports.

Kermit.de.frog

Looks more ragged than Ophelia's last 200 mile approach toward Ireland at the moment to be honest.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks more ragged than Ophelia's last 200 mile approach toward Ireland at the moment to be honest.

Are you downplaying it too?

Aircraft's just flown through the centre again now and found pressure 964.8 (965) hPa, max surface wind 77 and max flight level winds 92 knots. Latest ADT intensity estimate 79.6 kts. All screaming Cat 1.

Villain

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1169009558167142402?s=20

Certainly weakened a lot and moving north-northwest near 7 mph now, still going to cause issues with rainfall and storm surge.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Are you downplaying it too?

Just telling it as it is. Like yourself i'm no bull****ter with the facts.

And again I don't like the taking of liberties by the NOAA. It's either CAT 2 or it isn't.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just telling it as it is. Like yourself i'm no bull****ter with the facts.

And again I don't like the taking of liberties by the NOAA. It's either CAT 2 or it isn't.

It seems to happen time and time again with hurricanes approaching the States.

MJohnston

To be fair lads, you're just posting on a message board, they're trying to safeguard the lives of millions of humans. Pedantic accuracy might not be their primary concern.

Oneiric 3

Looking at the satellite loop here and while still classed as a hurricane by NOAA, structurally, it looks very messy and almost 'hybridy' Eye looks a bit big in a weird sort of way.

Kermit.de.frog

MJohnston wrote: »

To be fair lads, you're just posting on a message board, they're trying to safeguard the lives of millions of humans.

Trust me, the storm is not that much of a threat now. Immediate coastal areas may see a bit of a surge but nothing dramatic.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

To be fair lads, you're just posting on a message board, they're trying to safeguard the lives of millions of humans. Pedantic accuracy might not be their primary concern.

On the contrary, pedantic accuracy should be one of their main concerns as their word is taken most seriously by the authorities. They're still intent on holding it at 90 knots despite repeated observations less than that for the past 12 hours. Latest recon data max surface winds 79, max flight level winds 81 knots. From the latest discussion:

Although the central pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft.

Anyway, here are the latest surface mesonet observations. Gusts (in red) are in MPH. Not much going on windwise on dry land.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

On the contrary, pedantic accuracy should be one of their main concerns as their word is taken most seriously by the authorities.

They've been dealing with hurricanes a bit longer than you, I'd say they have a wee bit of a better handle on it all, no offence

Graces7

MJohnston wrote: »

They've been dealing with hurricanes a bit longer than you, I'd say they have a wee bit of a better handle on it all, no offence

agree totally and am puzzled at the idea that it is all over? Just read the breaking news.ie survey ( sorry cannot quote the link and the danger is far from all over. still a damaging hurricane. and as you say, lives still in danger.

MJohnston

Graces7 wrote: »

agree totally and am puzzled at the idea that it is all over? Just read the breaking news.ie survey ( sorry cannot quote the link and the danger is far from all over. still a damaging hurricane. and as you say, lives still in danger.

I think there's just a disconnect between what thrills the weather seekers of boards.ie and what actually causes impact in the real world

No harm really, this is a weather forum after all, but it does lead to lots of situations where otherwise intelligent people are scratching their heads over meteorologically-related agencies inserting some human factors into their warnings and forecasts.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

I think there's just a disconnect between what thrills the weather seekers of boards.ie and what actually causes impact in the real world

No harm really, this is a weather forum after all, but it does lead to lots of situations where otherwise intelligent people are scratching their heads over meteorologically-related agencies inserting some human factors into their warnings and forecasts.

Human factors is one thing, but when they repeatedly admit that they're deliberately overstating intensity after analysing and quoting the same data that we are looking at, it does seem a bit questionable.

PS I wouldn't be looking at breakingnews or other media outlets for accurate reporting. On the radio this morning I heard them say that Dorian is still in the Bahamas...

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Human factors is one thing, but when they repeatedly admit that they're deliberately overstating intensity after analysing and quoting the same data that we are looking at, it does seem a bit questionable.

Is that actually accurate though? Hurricane Hunters are a NOAA aircrew, which means that NHC could have direct access to the opinions/reports of the crews. Ultimately it seems like the officially reported wind intensities have regularly been 're-interpreted' from the flight data that is shared, and that often leads to a difference in raw figures. In between flight data and official figures lives a lot of interpretation.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

Is that actually accurate though? Hurricane Hunters are a NOAA aircrew, which means that NHC could have direct access to the opinions/reports of the crews. Ultimately it seems like the officially reported wind intensities have regularly been 're-interpreted' from the flight data that is shared, and that often leads to a difference in raw figures. In between flight data and official figures lives a lot of interpretation.

When you have them using these phrases then there's no real doubt what they mean

The current intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.

Anyway, it is what it is.

MJohnston

Generous there may as well say "erring on the side of caution" but whatever

Gaoth Laidir

Marginal increase in winds from the latest recon data 30 mins ago, with 85 knots surface / 100 knots flight level to the southeast of the centre. Central pressure 964 hPa.

sdanseo

Latest GFS deepens the storm from c. 970mb to mid 950s as it accelerates towards Newfoundland. Likely to be a Category 3 strength extratropical cyclone if this came off.

SST values south of Virginia up to 29C then take a nosedive further North.

Alarming for Canada (and much later, us, in terms of remnants).

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1168960512538939392

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

To be fair lads, you're just posting on a message board, they're trying to safeguard the lives of millions of humans. Pedantic accuracy might not be their primary concern.

Strange, because I would have thought that 'pedantic accuracy' was hallmark of science. NOAA is there to collect data and inform the public and relevant authorities, not 'safegaurd them'. That is not their responsibility.

Tigerandahalf

Is this due to make landfall tonight in Florida or is it staying off course?