Hurricane Dorian

star gazer

Hurricane Dorian does look ominous for Florida and sooner for parts of the Bahamas. It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane in the next 24 hours and could be a Category four on landfall somewhere along Floridas East coast.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
...
INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

NHC Discussion 25

HighLine

https://twitter.com/AstroDrewMorgan/status/1167447150478934016

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1167470511842107392

cherryghost

WEBCAMS (times subject to change):
Green Turtle Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
Treasure Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (6pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
Paradise Island: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected
Old Bahama Bay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 around Lunchtime Monday our Time (1pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
FT Lauderdale: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected (see also Hilton Beach cam)
Pompano Beach: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected

Plenty more from the PTZ site

Oneiric 3

Latest ECMWF impression has 'Dorian' stalling around the Grand Bahama region for almost a 24hr period between Sun evening (our time) and Monday.

Image may take a while to load properly.

Gaoth Laidir

Max winds now 100 kts, with higher gusts, however the highest winds are confined to a very small area around the northeastern eyewall and the 64-kt winds extend only out to 25 miles from the centre. Still a small wind-field but it should expand a bit more from here now as the eye has fully formed.

Latest visible image from a few.mins ago.

Gaoth Laidir

Ocean Heat Content shows Dorian currently in relatively shallow warm layer, moving into a slightly deeper pool later tomorrow. However, as it slows down, upwelling should offset some of the intensification and lower shear. Such a delicate balance of many competing factors makes this compelling viewing!

Kermit.de.frog

Center stalling over Grand Bahama for a length would have a deleterous effect on the eye wall as well. That could be the difference between a Cat 4, Cat 3 or even verging on Cat 5.

This will be a fascinating one to watch.

You can keep up to date with the Hurricane Hunter recon missions in to Dorian here...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN

Mission 19 (already) was en-route but they seem to have turned back...

J6P

Beautiful but deadly!

Interesting model watching when a 50 mile shift east or west can either devastate or spare florida.

Grand Bahama looks to be in serious trouble with this thing forecast to stall over them.

J6P

Nice explanation for those interested in the factors influencing Dorians track

Kermit.de.frog

Mission 21 underway...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN

pad199207

Looking like it’s developing that buzzsaw effect. Rapid intensification underway I’d say now. Cat 5 certainly not out of the question.

Kermit.de.frog

"Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.

Harry Palmr

What's it's most likely path for us as an ex hurricane? Will it across the Atlantic?

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

"Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.

Yeah really cleared out now. Latest sat looks to me a high end Cat 3 if not a Cat 4.

Meteorite58

Eye looking fairly symmetrical now. Intensifying. Very deep convection increasing around the eye. Now a major Hurricane with winds near 115mph / 185 km/h / 100 knts

NHC saying upper level environment and high SST's leading Dorian to become an extremely dangerous Hurricane yet depending on the steering currents very uncertain if it will go inland, keep near the shore or offshore. Models are suggesting that it could turn and veer up along and near the coast . Could slow and stall just off the Florida coast before turning up the coast.

Kermit.de.frog

Recon reaching north western eyewall section - high level CAT 3 or CAT 4? Find out in a few minutes.

pad199207

RECON
Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
Extrapolated pressure of 946mb

Kermit.de.frog

That is rapid intensification - on the edge of CAT 4 now.

Kermit.de.frog

It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.

Will be well into Cat 4 next advisory I’d say. That pressure drop is phenomenal. Should looks stunning on satellite tomorrow.
Small storm though.

Kermit.de.frog

It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

This looks a serious one.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

This looks a serious one.

Yeah should be a monster as it nears Florida.
Eye wall replacement cycle soon I’d say.

Meteorite58

Levi Cowan reporting 'Recon found an estimated pressure of 946mb just now, pending a dropsonde to get a more accurate reading. That's a rapid drop from 970mb about 6 hours ago.'

' The dropsonde in #Dorian's eye measured a pressure of 951mb with a 13 kt wind, so the accurate pressure is probably ~950mb.'

Kermit.de.frog

Mission 20 underway - decent chance of a CAT 4 confirmation in the next couple of hours.

Amazing pressure drop. That's almost 25mbs lower over 6 hours.

So yeah, this will be worth watching.

EDIT: just seen that Meteorite - still fairly dramatic.

pad199207

Going to be a stunning storm to follow

Gaoth Laidir

Mission 21's Dropsonde 3 in the NE eyewall found 116-knot surface winds a few minutes ago

Kermit.de.frog

Dropsonde 3 was in the northwestern eye wall? Recon (21) going through northeast eye wall now.

sdanseo

Spare a thought for the people caught in its path. Always conflicts me that we find these events - which without wanting to provoke a debate unsuitable for the thread, are becoming more common - so fascinating and enjoyable while at the same time, there are genuine threats to peoples lives and livelihoods.

In any event, if we have gone from the below to 129 (133) mph in just 2 hours - this is rapid intensifictation for sure and Cat 5 would appear to be very much within the bounds of possibility toward landfall. Even hitting Florida at Cat 4 will be no joke.

INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

pad199207 wrote: »

RECON
Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

116-knot surface winds

[133mph]


For those interested in historic storms, track and intensity are very similar to Andrew

Kermit.de.frog

CAT 4 if not suspect reading.

Itssoeasy

What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.

igCorcaigh

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.

The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.

Itssoeasy

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.

Yeah It seems the models are in agreement that it's not going into the gulf of mexico now and will make landfall in florida and go up the state.

sdanseo

Cat 4.

000
WTNT65 KNHC 310027
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

Gaoth Laidir

I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

Itssoeasy

Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?

deisedude

In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now

Kermit.de.frog

Mandatory evacuations now in some coastal counties of Florida. Not even hurricane warnings yet.

sdanseo

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?

Low ocean temperatures and vertical windshear are the two things that will kill a tropical cyclone dead the fastest.

The former means no fuel, and the latter quite literally pulls it apart.

At the moment, ocean temperatures are high, and there is little windshear.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=sst&MODELLTYP=3&BASE=-&VAR=1&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.

Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.

sdanseo

deisedude wrote: »

In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now

It's all about the preparation.

Florida is exceptionally well prepared for Hurricanes. Follow the local authorities' advice.

Compare Katrina, which hit Louisiana and caused untold devastation, to Michael last year which had a comparatively small human effect (everything being relative.. it still killed 31 people).

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.

Agree. Can't call anything yet.

I also disagree somewhat with the upgrade to CAT 4 now. They state winds are "near" 130 mph. They either are or they aren't over 130 mph.

We have seen liberties like this being taken before and I don't agree with it. That said, most recent recon does show 131 mph SL (but that is not what the NHC update was based on).

Still they should be accurate but that's probably nit picking these days.

Kermit.de.frog

Latest pass



Definitely in CAT 4 territory now and continuing to strengthen.

igCorcaigh

It's the rain will be the issue though, not the winds, or the landfall.

RobAMerc

In South beach Miami - 3 streets back from the Atlantic sea front. Hard to believe anything could be in the offing bar what we are hearing on the telly.

Due to fly out Sunday night 10pm, ****ting it a little, my hotel doesnt seem terribly well prepared !

Latest projections suggest it might be going about 100 miles north of us, heres hoping we are ling gone by the time this is near us !

Kermit.de.frog

Dorian in it's nursery stage...

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1167310225935699968

Kermit.de.frog

00z GFS keeping this off shore of Florida by a good 150 miles.

Not so good for the Carolinas and Virgina.

Gaoth Laidir

The overall offshore trend continues, so the focus should be shifting away from the US and more on the Bahamas, which will be most effected by this. If it does affect the Carolinas its will most likely be in a much reduced state, with increased shear and drier air taking their toll.



In the meantime, we should start to see some eyewall replacement cycles affect the overall intensity, so with a bit of luck that plus the Bahamas islands will limit the effects there. Those max winds quoted really are still only in a very tiny area.

Gaoth Laidir

The latest official track

Gaoth Laidir

With ocean heat content

Merkin

When is this due to reach land?