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Hurricane Dorian

  • 30-08-2019 4:16pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Hurricane Dorian does look ominous for Florida and sooner for parts of the Bahamas. It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane in the next 24 hours and could be a Category four on landfall somewhere along Floridas East coast.
    1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
    winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
    hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
    hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
    officials.
    2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
    winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
    next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
    surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
    plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
    listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
    ...
    INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
    12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
    24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
    36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
    72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
    96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
    120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
    NHC Discussion 25
    145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


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Comments

  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,098 Mod ✭✭✭✭ cherryghost


    WEBCAMS (times subject to change):
    Green Turtle Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    Treasure Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (6pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    Paradise Island: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected
    Old Bahama Bay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 around Lunchtime Monday our Time (1pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    FT Lauderdale: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected (see also Hilton Beach cam)
    Pompano Beach: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected

    Plenty more from the PTZ site


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Latest ECMWF impression has 'Dorian' stalling around the Grand Bahama region for almost a 24hr period between Sun evening (our time) and Monday.

    Image may take a while to load properly.

    qh7PRae.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Max winds now 100 kts, with higher gusts, however the highest winds are confined to a very small area around the northeastern eyewall and the 64-kt winds extend only out to 25 miles from the centre. Still a small wind-field but it should expand a bit more from here now as the eye has fully formed.

    Latest visible image from a few.mins ago.

    2019AL05_1KMSRVIS_201908301946.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Ocean Heat Content shows Dorian currently in relatively shallow warm layer, moving into a slightly deeper pool later tomorrow. However, as it slows down, upwelling should offset some of the intensification and lower shear. Such a delicate balance of many competing factors makes this compelling viewing!

    2019AL05_OHCNFCST_201908301200.GIF


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Center stalling over Grand Bahama for a length would have a deleterous effect on the eye wall as well. That could be the difference between a Cat 4, Cat 3 or even verging on Cat 5.

    This will be a fascinating one to watch.

    You can keep up to date with the Hurricane Hunter recon missions in to Dorian here...

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN

    Mission 19 (already) was en-route but they seem to have turned back...


  • Registered Users Posts: 275 ✭✭ J6P


    Beautiful but deadly!

    Interesting model watching when a 50 mile shift east or west can either devastate or spare florida.

    Grand Bahama looks to be in serious trouble with this thing forecast to stall over them.

    4252a9d19a9f48056c49b654566ea3e9d5f69c945c2ab537562948157450e333.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 275 ✭✭ J6P


    Nice explanation for those interested in the factors influencing Dorians track



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Looking like it’s developing that buzzsaw effect. Rapid intensification underway I’d say now. Cat 5 certainly not out of the question.

    E6-D83343-924-D-4-BF0-B14-A-0-FD556289-A25.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    "Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

    The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    What's it's most likely path for us as an ex hurricane? Will it across the Atlantic?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    "Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

    The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.

    Yeah really cleared out now. Latest sat looks to me a high end Cat 3 if not a Cat 4.

    C39-F206-E-5407-4-C4-C-AE3-D-569-EE43-C01-CA.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Eye looking fairly symmetrical now. Intensifying. Very deep convection increasing around the eye. Now a major Hurricane with winds near 115mph / 185 km/h / 100 knts

    NHC saying upper level environment and high SST's leading Dorian to become an extremely dangerous Hurricane yet depending on the steering currents very uncertain if it will go inland, keep near the shore or offshore. Models are suggesting that it could turn and veer up along and near the coast . Could slow and stall just off the Florida coast before turning up the coast.

    ZsoWirc.gif

    qV7EAKE.gif

    iM7ovfr.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Recon reaching north western eyewall section - high level CAT 3 or CAT 4? Find out in a few minutes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    RECON
    Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
    Extrapolated pressure of 946mb

    0-F17-D20-F-7763-4167-A741-820-BD3-D5-FFB2.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    That is rapid intensification - on the edge of CAT 4 now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

    It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

    It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.

    Will be well into Cat 4 next advisory I’d say. That pressure drop is phenomenal. Should looks stunning on satellite tomorrow.
    Small storm though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

    This looks a serious one.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

    This looks a serious one.

    Yeah should be a monster as it nears Florida.
    Eye wall replacement cycle soon I’d say.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Levi Cowan reporting 'Recon found an estimated pressure of 946mb just now, pending a dropsonde to get a more accurate reading. That's a rapid drop from 970mb about 6 hours ago.'

    ' The dropsonde in #Dorian's eye measured a pressure of 951mb with a 13 kt wind, so the accurate pressure is probably ~950mb.'


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Mission 20 underway - decent chance of a CAT 4 confirmation in the next couple of hours.

    Amazing pressure drop. That's almost 25mbs lower over 6 hours.

    So yeah, this will be worth watching.

    EDIT: just seen that Meteorite - still fairly dramatic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Going to be a stunning storm to follow


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Mission 21's Dropsonde 3 in the NE eyewall found 116-knot surface winds a few minutes ago

    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_dropsonde3_20190830-2257.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Dropsonde 3 was in the northwestern eye wall? Recon (21) going through northeast eye wall now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Spare a thought for the people caught in its path. Always conflicts me that we find these events - which without wanting to provoke a debate unsuitable for the thread, are becoming more common - so fascinating and enjoyable while at the same time, there are genuine threats to peoples lives and livelihoods.

    In any event, if we have gone from the below to 129 (133) mph in just 2 hours - this is rapid intensifictation for sure and Cat 5 would appear to be very much within the bounds of possibility toward landfall. Even hitting Florida at Cat 4 will be no joke.
    INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
    pad199207 wrote: »
    RECON
    Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
    116-knot surface winds
    [133mph]


    For those interested in historic storms, track and intensity are very similar to Andrew


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    CAT 4 if not suspect reading.

    EDQeSVBXUAIDQLB?format=jpg&name=medium


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,332 ✭✭✭✭ Itssoeasy


    What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,709 ✭✭✭ igCorcaigh


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.

    The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.


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