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Hurricane Dorian

  • 30-08-2019 3:16pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Hurricane Dorian does look ominous for Florida and sooner for parts of the Bahamas. It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane in the next 24 hours and could be a Category four on landfall somewhere along Floridas East coast.
    1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
    winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
    hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
    hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
    officials.
    2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
    winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
    next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
    surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
    plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
    listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
    ...
    INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
    12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
    24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
    36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
    72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
    96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
    120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
    NHC Discussion 25
    145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


«13456789

Comments

  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    WEBCAMS (times subject to change):
    Green Turtle Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    Treasure Cay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (6pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    Paradise Island: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 Around Sunday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected
    Old Bahama Bay: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4 around Lunchtime Monday our Time (1pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected
    FT Lauderdale: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Near Hit Expected (see also Hilton Beach cam)
    Pompano Beach: Expected Hurricane Arrival CAT4/CAT3 Around Monday Evening our Time (7pm onwards) - Direct Hit Expected

    Plenty more from the PTZ site


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest ECMWF impression has 'Dorian' stalling around the Grand Bahama region for almost a 24hr period between Sun evening (our time) and Monday.

    Image may take a while to load properly.

    qh7PRae.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Max winds now 100 kts, with higher gusts, however the highest winds are confined to a very small area around the northeastern eyewall and the 64-kt winds extend only out to 25 miles from the centre. Still a small wind-field but it should expand a bit more from here now as the eye has fully formed.

    Latest visible image from a few.mins ago.

    2019AL05_1KMSRVIS_201908301946.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Ocean Heat Content shows Dorian currently in relatively shallow warm layer, moving into a slightly deeper pool later tomorrow. However, as it slows down, upwelling should offset some of the intensification and lower shear. Such a delicate balance of many competing factors makes this compelling viewing!

    2019AL05_OHCNFCST_201908301200.GIF


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Center stalling over Grand Bahama for a length would have a deleterous effect on the eye wall as well. That could be the difference between a Cat 4, Cat 3 or even verging on Cat 5.

    This will be a fascinating one to watch.

    You can keep up to date with the Hurricane Hunter recon missions in to Dorian here...

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF3031905ADORIAN

    Mission 19 (already) was en-route but they seem to have turned back...


  • Registered Users Posts: 278 ✭✭J6P


    Beautiful but deadly!

    Interesting model watching when a 50 mile shift east or west can either devastate or spare florida.

    Grand Bahama looks to be in serious trouble with this thing forecast to stall over them.

    4252a9d19a9f48056c49b654566ea3e9d5f69c945c2ab537562948157450e333.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 278 ✭✭J6P


    Nice explanation for those interested in the factors influencing Dorians track



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Looking like it’s developing that buzzsaw effect. Rapid intensification underway I’d say now. Cat 5 certainly not out of the question.

    E6-D83343-924-D-4-BF0-B14-A-0-FD556289-A25.jpg


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    "Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

    The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    What's it's most likely path for us as an ex hurricane? Will it across the Atlantic?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    "Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.

    The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.

    Yeah really cleared out now. Latest sat looks to me a high end Cat 3 if not a Cat 4.

    C39-F206-E-5407-4-C4-C-AE3-D-569-EE43-C01-CA.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,211 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Eye looking fairly symmetrical now. Intensifying. Very deep convection increasing around the eye. Now a major Hurricane with winds near 115mph / 185 km/h / 100 knts

    NHC saying upper level environment and high SST's leading Dorian to become an extremely dangerous Hurricane yet depending on the steering currents very uncertain if it will go inland, keep near the shore or offshore. Models are suggesting that it could turn and veer up along and near the coast . Could slow and stall just off the Florida coast before turning up the coast.

    ZsoWirc.gif

    qV7EAKE.gif

    iM7ovfr.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Recon reaching north western eyewall section - high level CAT 3 or CAT 4? Find out in a few minutes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    RECON
    Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
    Extrapolated pressure of 946mb

    0-F17-D20-F-7763-4167-A741-820-BD3-D5-FFB2.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That is rapid intensification - on the edge of CAT 4 now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

    It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

    It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.

    Will be well into Cat 4 next advisory I’d say. That pressure drop is phenomenal. Should looks stunning on satellite tomorrow.
    Small storm though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

    This looks a serious one.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    It's just breathing - the wind field will expand...

    This looks a serious one.

    Yeah should be a monster as it nears Florida.
    Eye wall replacement cycle soon I’d say.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,211 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Levi Cowan reporting 'Recon found an estimated pressure of 946mb just now, pending a dropsonde to get a more accurate reading. That's a rapid drop from 970mb about 6 hours ago.'

    ' The dropsonde in #Dorian's eye measured a pressure of 951mb with a 13 kt wind, so the accurate pressure is probably ~950mb.'


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Mission 20 underway - decent chance of a CAT 4 confirmation in the next couple of hours.

    Amazing pressure drop. That's almost 25mbs lower over 6 hours.

    So yeah, this will be worth watching.

    EDIT: just seen that Meteorite - still fairly dramatic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Going to be a stunning storm to follow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Mission 21's Dropsonde 3 in the NE eyewall found 116-knot surface winds a few minutes ago

    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_dropsonde3_20190830-2257.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Dropsonde 3 was in the northwestern eye wall? Recon (21) going through northeast eye wall now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Spare a thought for the people caught in its path. Always conflicts me that we find these events - which without wanting to provoke a debate unsuitable for the thread, are becoming more common - so fascinating and enjoyable while at the same time, there are genuine threats to peoples lives and livelihoods.

    In any event, if we have gone from the below to 129 (133) mph in just 2 hours - this is rapid intensifictation for sure and Cat 5 would appear to be very much within the bounds of possibility toward landfall. Even hitting Florida at Cat 4 will be no joke.
    INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 70.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
    pad199207 wrote: »
    RECON
    Winds recorded at 129MPH at surface
    116-knot surface winds
    [133mph]


    For those interested in historic storms, track and intensity are very similar to Andrew


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    CAT 4 if not suspect reading.

    EDQeSVBXUAIDQLB?format=jpg&name=medium


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,509 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What I find worrying for florida is that it's a Cat 3 hurricane as we speak and is projected to be a Cat 4 at landfall in florida but earlier in the week it was showing as a Cat 1 storm up through florida it's now showing Cat 2 near Jacksonville after it hangs a right. This could be bad.

    The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,509 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    The slow movement of it is concerning. It won't stall, but the amount of rain it could put down.

    Yeah It seems the models are in agreement that it's not going into the gulf of mexico now and will make landfall in florida and go up the state.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Cat 4.
    000
    WTNT65 KNHC 310027
    TCUAT5

    Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
    830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

    ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

    Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
    strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
    maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
    intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
    (0300 UTC).

    SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
    ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

    aal05_2019083018_track_early.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,509 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,936 ✭✭✭deisedude


    In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Mandatory evacuations now in some coastal counties of Florida. Not even hurricane warnings yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Okay it's a Cat4 now and it's 8:35pm florida time on a friday and the hurricane isn't meant to make landfall until monday night florida time. My question to the great and good on this forum, what will stop this from being a Cat 5 at landfall ?

    Low ocean temperatures and vertical windshear are the two things that will kill a tropical cyclone dead the fastest.

    The former means no fuel, and the latter quite literally pulls it apart.

    At the moment, ocean temperatures are high, and there is little windshear.

    https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=sst&MODELLTYP=3&BASE=-&VAR=1&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.

    aal05_2019083018_track_early.png

    The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

    Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.

    Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.

    Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    deisedude wrote: »
    In Orlando on a family holiday until Thursday. Bricking it is putting it mildly. Contacted Tour America and they basically told us either wait it out or pay up to Aer Lingus to change flights. Orlando International Airport is closed from 2am Monday morning now

    It's all about the preparation.

    Florida is exceptionally well prepared for Hurricanes. Follow the local authorities' advice.

    Compare Katrina, which hit Louisiana and caused untold devastation, to Michael last year which had a comparatively small human effect (everything being relative.. it still killed 31 people).


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Just offshore would be bad, but if the current trend continues it could be well offshore. This is still all to play for, with even a southerly dive not out of the question either.

    Agree. Can't call anything yet.

    I also disagree somewhat with the upgrade to CAT 4 now. They state winds are "near" 130 mph. They either are or they aren't over 130 mph.

    We have seen liberties like this being taken before and I don't agree with it. That said, most recent recon does show 131 mph SL (but that is not what the NHC update was based on).

    Still they should be accurate but that's probably nit picking these days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Latest pass

    recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_timeseries.png

    Definitely in CAT 4 territory now and continuing to strengthen.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    It's the rain will be the issue though, not the winds, or the landfall.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,863 ✭✭✭RobAMerc


    In South beach Miami - 3 streets back from the Atlantic sea front. Hard to believe anything could be in the offing bar what we are hearing on the telly.

    Due to fly out Sunday night 10pm, ****ting it a little, my hotel doesnt seem terribly well prepared !

    Latest projections suggest it might be going about 100 miles north of us, heres hoping we are ling gone by the time this is near us !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,175 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    00z GFS keeping this off shore of Florida by a good 150 miles.

    Not so good for the Carolinas and Virgina.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The overall offshore trend continues, so the focus should be shifting away from the US and more on the Bahamas, which will be most effected by this. If it does affect the Carolinas its will most likely be in a much reduced state, with increased shear and drier air taking their toll.

    aal05_2019083100_track_early.png

    In the meantime, we should start to see some eyewall replacement cycles affect the overall intensity, so with a bit of luck that plus the Bahamas islands will limit the effects there. Those max winds quoted really are still only in a very tiny area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The latest official track

    489537.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    With ocean heat content

    489538.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,230 ✭✭✭Merkin


    When is this due to reach land?


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