Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Chris_5339762 · 10-08-2020 9:49pm

smurfjed wrote: »

This is interesting from Eurocontrol

http://https://twitter.com/eurocontroldg/status/1292125590884175875?s=21 https://twitter.com/eurocontroldg/status/1292125590884175875?s=21

Yes, flights are running, but the load factors are absolutely pathetic.

Even if I was vaccinated and could travel tomorrow, I probably still wouldn't due to governments changing quarantine restrictions almost daily.

Blut2 · 10-08-2020 11:17pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Yes, flights are running, but the load factors are absolutely pathetic.

Even if I was vaccinated and could travel tomorrow, I probably still wouldn't due to governments changing quarantine restrictions almost daily.

Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

Not good compared to normal times obviously, but thats still a hell of a lot of seats being sold. And its going up rapidly every week.

The budget carriers seem to recovering a lot faster than others. Presumably because they get a lot more last minute travel, a lot more short haul/intra-EU travel, and are a lot less reliant on business travel.

Jack1985 · 10-08-2020 11:20pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

Not good compared to normal times obviously, but thats still a hell of a lot of seats being sold. And its going up rapidly every week.

The budget carriers seem to recovering a lot faster than others. Presumably because they get a lot more last minute travel, a lot more short haul travel, and are a lot less reliant on business travel.

Not being exposed to Long Haul seriously helps matters too. It's the winter I worry about, I think there will be massive capacity reductions by all.

Noxegon · 11-08-2020 8:11am

Blut2 wrote: »

Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

Load factor is one thing, yield is another –– when you can buy tickets for the next day's flight for €19.99 it speaks volumes.

IngazZagni · 11-08-2020 8:57am

Exactly and the figures quoted would be for tickets sold rather than passengers flown. No show rates are still sky high showing a lack of passenger confidence. Many of these having bought €20 fares which barely cover the taxes applicable anyway hoping that things would change by the flight date but have not.

The real test will come from October onwards I feel for the low season. Itll be very tough for airlines especially as very few airlines made a profit in winter even during the good times.

Nijmegen · 11-08-2020 9:29am

Cashflow, even if it's not the most profitable revenue in the world, probably does the business a world of good both in the short term but also in the medium term - your capacity to return to operations in a timely manner along with the market is enhanced by the operational capabilities you're keeping going today.

goingnowhere · 11-08-2020 9:55am

If you don't fly you loose money, still got to pay staff, for leases and upkeep on the fleet.

If you do fly you loose less money as once you have covered the fuel cost, ATC and airport fees you are generating cash. It reduces the burn rate, the closer you can get to breaking even the better

Tenger · 11-08-2020 10:46am

I’m guessing that most airlines will need a financial injection (loans or bailout) to allow them to stay in business until next March/April. At which point the hope would be that we have a vaccine and air travel will begin to return to normal.

But even then the lower performers in 2018/2019 will probably not be able to operate in the lower revenue/traffic numbers environment.

11-08-2020 1:12pm

Noxegon wrote: »

Load factor is one thing, yield is another –– when you can buy tickets for the next day's flight for €19.99 it speaks volumes.

19.99 is below cost on most routes. They'd be better off not taking a booking off you and flying an empty plane.
I am seeing 14.99 fares on my route.

It isn't just the airlines. Car hire should be almost unaffordable in a normal August and it is so unbelievably cheap. Accommodation isn't cheap in Ireland as there is a lot of staycationing.

HTCOne · 11-08-2020 1:12pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

Many of these having bought €20 fares which barely cover the taxes applicable anyway....

This got me wondering, if the passenger who booked their flight before COVID kicked off doesn’t show up for a flight that the airline still operates because they don’t want to quarantine etc, does the airline still pay the taxes and airport fees for that passenger?

goingnowhere · 11-08-2020 1:38pm

HTCOne wrote: »

This got me wondering, if the passenger who booked their flight before COVID kicked off doesn’t show up for a flight that the airline still operates because they don’t want to quarantine etc, does the airline still pay the taxes and airport fees for that passenger?

They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show

Nijmegen · 11-08-2020 2:33pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show

Breakage, major part of the profit margin that typically restaurants going (from vouchers) and possibly now some airlines...!

In other news, the Indo reporting that the Dublin airport pax falls among the worst out there, -97.2%. Gatwick tho, -99.4%!

Airports did comparatively better in markets with large internal markets, ala Russia and Turkey.

Be interesting to see the DAAs revised capital plan after all of this. Back to the drawing board surely on pax fees also with the CAA.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/dublin-airport-suffered-one-of-biggest-falls-in-passenger-numbers-across-the-world-39440081.html

HTCOne · 11-08-2020 3:29pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show

Thanks. This combined with the fact that Eurocontrol ANSPs haven’t been charging ATC fees since February, and won’t be until at least October, probably means break even LF for carriers has dropped.

goingnowhere · 11-08-2020 3:48pm

Jet fuel is running at half the price it was in January and thats a huge chunk of the operating cost.

EI is flying around with 40-70 per flight, but they carry freight on most routes.

All things considered if you can run at 50% load and 50 euro a head you are not in a bad place currrently

Tenzor07 · 15-08-2020 12:10pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Jet fuel is running at half the price it was in January and thats a huge chunk of the operating cost.
EI is flying around with 40-70 per flight, but they carry freight on most routes.
All things considered if you can run at 50% load and 50 euro a head you are not in a bad place currrently

Airlines heage fuel costs at the start of the year, so if they get that wrong they'll still pay high prices for fuel that year...

Ryanair are offering 1000's of seats at €30 one way, though they will make another €30+ on priority boarding and baggage charges, and any of the flights i've been on this year have been almost full apart from maybe a handful of seats.

HTCOne · 15-08-2020 6:17pm

There’s probably very few bookings for this winter, and even less for next year. The current situation of airlines operating flights with decent number of seats sold pre covid is likely to end in the next month or two. Could be a very grim winter ahead for jobs in our industry. It will likely start hitting the MROs soon, all those aircraft due in for heavy checks this winter will be mothballed instead. Thousands of MRO jobs alone in Shannon and Dublin at risk.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-08-2020 7:45pm

Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.

Tenger · 15-08-2020 10:05pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.

My sister lives in Hong Kong. Been that way there for weeks now.
Tested on arrival, placed in quarantine, tested again at the end of the quarantine period.

Personally I would be happier to see testing testing on arrival at our airports.

L1011 · 15-08-2020 10:25pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Airlines heage fuel costs at the start of the year, so if they get that wrong they'll still pay high prices for fuel that year...

Many airlines don't hedge at all; and its not all January-December contracts either.

goingnowhere · 15-08-2020 10:27pm

Hedges work two ways, you can hedge to pay at a set price (i.e committed) and hedge an option to purchase (no obligation to purchase)

billy few mates · 15-08-2020 10:39pm

goingnowhere wrote: »

Hedges work two ways, you can hedge to pay at a set price (i.e committed) and hedge an option to purchase (no obligation to purchase)

Plus they normally only hedge a percentage of their fuel...

WishUWereHere · 16-08-2020 3:16pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.

I'd never be a fan of this government but hats off to them, they withdrew Malta ( along with others a week ahead of the UK also withdrawing Malta's favourite status.

For such a small country, am amazed at how quickly their fortunes can turn around. Anyone know what actually happened?

Comhrá · 17-08-2020 2:01pm

This story is behind the IT paywall but the headline gives the summary.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-to-cut-flight-capacity-by-20-as-bookings-fall-1.4332109

"Ryanair said it would cut its flight capacity by 20 per cent for September and October as the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in some EU countries weakened bookings".

BZ · 17-08-2020 4:45pm

Easyjet feeling the pinch now aswell. They have just announced they are closing Stansted, Newcastle and Southend bases.

marno21 · 17-08-2020 4:51pm

The struggle for air capacity in the London area over the past few years will lead to a glut of capacity now with the massive reduction in air traffic. VS have moved all operations ex LGW to LHR and BA are cutting back at LGW too. LGW will then have excess capacity which might see some flights which were at STN/LTN move to LGW. Southend is in serious trouble as it was primarily as an overflow airport for low cost carriers from LGW/STN/LTN.

Blut2 · 17-08-2020 5:32pm

marno21 wrote: »

The struggle for air capacity in the London area over the past few years will lead to a glut of capacity now with the massive reduction in air traffic. VS have moved all operations ex LGW to LHR and BA are cutting back at LGW too. LGW will then have excess capacity which might see some flights which were at STN/LTN move to LGW. Southend is in serious trouble as it was primarily as an overflow airport for low cost carriers from LGW/STN/LTN.

London is going to be particularly fascinating to watch over the next 12 months. In a year's time I really wonder what state STN/LTN/SEN will be in. I'd be shocked if they all survived in anything resembling their current form, with LCY/LHR/LGW likely to hoover up the vast majority of what remains of the much reduced demand over winter.

JCX BXC · 17-08-2020 5:56pm

Stansted and Luton are safe in my opinion, purely because they are the main bases for Ryanair and easyJet respectively.

Southend will be one to watch, I can't any quantifiable demand for services from there for the foreseeable future.

gral6 · 17-08-2020 5:58pm

Blut2 wrote: »

London is going to be particularly fascinating to watch over the next 12 months. In a year's time I really wonder what state STN/LTN/SEN will be in. I'd be shocked if they all survived in anything resembling their current form, with LCY/LHR/LGW likely to hoover up the vast majority of what remains of the much reduced demand over winter.

I'd rather to worry about Cork, Dublin and Shannon

Chris_5339762 · 17-08-2020 9:00pm

Luton is the most likely to go, Southend too.

City will still attract business because they'll pay whatever.

Heathrow will keep acting as a hub

Gatwick will do the same (they're the best managed and will find a way)

Stansted will also survive because Ryanair will make them!

I think we'll keep Cork... can't see it shutting even with this. Not with Mr Martin as Taoiseach. Shannon maybe days numbered?

marno21 · 17-08-2020 9:04pm

Luton is very busy with corporate aircraft too. Presumably both it and Stansted will continue to remain busy with those types of aircraft alongside Biggin Hill and Farnborough.

If more private slots open at LTN/STN it'll likely affect business at fringe airports like Oxford.

lintdrummer · 17-08-2020 9:45pm

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Shannon maybe days numbered?

Shannon's strategic importance as ETOPS alternate makes it very unlikely to be in any danger of closing. What kind of regular passenger services it has going forward is another story.

L1011 · 17-08-2020 9:49pm

lintdrummer wrote: »

Shannon's strategic importance as ETOPS alternate makes it very unlikely to be in any danger of closing. What kind of regular passenger services it has going forward is another story.

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

Cookiemunster · 17-08-2020 10:17pm

L1011 wrote: »

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

L1011 · 17-08-2020 10:23pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

Not going to keep the lights on on their own.

HTCOne · 18-08-2020 12:59am

L1011 wrote: »

If nobody is willing to pay for its services on a regular basis, it'll close - strategic reserve importance or not.

We may need to look at levying TATL airlines to keep Shannon (and Gander etc) going, or else they'll be gone. Look at the light duties on ships for an example there, US<->UK ships still contribute to Irish lights.

A neglected runway alone is bugger all use for the majority of emergencies; you need high enough grade fire cover and suitable GSE.

These types of charges used to be levied on airlines by ICAO and given to Shannon, Gander and Keflavik for sure, possibly Prestwick and Santa Maria too. They were done away with years ago as there are commercially accessible alternates nearby that don't need subsidies such as DUB, YYT, or in the case of KEF, it got busy enough to stand on its own two feet.

Cork has been busier than Shannon most days during COVID. When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone. Shannon had already cut their fire cover at night pre COVID, can't remember whether it's CAT 6 or CAT 8 now during night time, haven't seen the NOTAM in a while.

Shannon is definitely the most vulnerable of the 3 state airports.

BZ · 18-08-2020 12:03pm

HTCOne wrote: »

These types of charges used to be levied on airlines by ICAO and given to Shannon, Gander and Keflavik for sure, possibly Prestwick and Santa Maria too. They were done away with years ago as there are commercially accessible alternates nearby that don't need subsidies such as DUB, YYT, or in the case of KEF, it got busy enough to stand on it's own two feet.

Cork has been busier than Shannon most days during COVID. When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone. Shannon had already cut their fire cover at night pre COVID, can't remember whether it's CAT 6 or CAT 8 now during night time, haven't seen the NOTAM in a while.

Shannon is definitely the most vulnerable of the 3 state airports.

Shannon is CAT7 all the time but can be CAT9 at short notice to facilitate larger aircraft such as the Omni 777s, Turkish Cargo 747s and any other adhoc flights.

HTCOne · 18-08-2020 12:56pm

BZ wrote: »

Shannon is CAT7 all the time but can be CAT9 at short notice to facilitate larger aircraft such as the Omni 777s, Turkish Cargo 747s and any other adhoc flights.

Ah, so they made the cuts even more widespread. That rings a bell alright. Thanks.

HTCOne · 18-08-2020 1:04pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Private jets, cargos and the MROs still using Shannon. Its not a total ghost town.

Even still it is the quietest of the 3 State airports, both before and since COVID, and few of those aircraft need the big expensive passenger terminal. Remote tower (which has already been successfully trialed), Flight Information Service or uncontrolled airfield are all also possible.

As I’ve said it is my local airport and losing it would devastate many local businesses, but it is going to have the toughest fight for survival.

Cookiemunster · 18-08-2020 1:20pm

HTCOne wrote: »

Even still it is the quietest of the 3 State airports, both before and since COVID, and few of those aircraft need the big expensive passenger terminal. Remote tower (which has already been successfully trialed), Flight Information Service or uncontrolled airfield are all also possible.

As I’ve said it is my local airport and losing it would devastate many local businesses, but it is going to have the toughest fight for survival.

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

gral6 · 18-08-2020 1:32pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

Why not? So far the Gov is managing well enough with that.

opinionated3 · 18-08-2020 1:35pm

gral6 wrote: »

Why not? So far the Gov is managing well enough with that.

I can tell you now, if Shannon is closed, FF and FG will never see a candidate returned in Clare or Limerick ever again. That's how high feelings run around this issue

HTCOne · 18-08-2020 1:37pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It's a state owned airport though. The state are not going to shut down any of the three airports. It would be political suicide.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but the current situation is so unprecedented for our industry, all our certainties need to be left at the door I feel. Who would have thought we’d see a day where Shannon went an entire summer without flights to North America? And looks likely do the same next summer? Who thought we’d see a 90% drop in air traffic across the State? Who thought Aer Lingus’ route map would essentially revert to the 1960s from Ireland? 50% wage cuts here, 70% there. Anything is possible now unfortunately.

Irish Steve · 18-08-2020 2:14pm

opinionated3 wrote: »

I can tell you now, if Shannon is closed, FF and FG will never see a candidate returned in Clare or Limerick ever again. That's how high feelings run around this issue

And you really think any other political party will be capable of squaring that circle?

If it didn't exist, there is no way that a brand new airport would be built at Shannon, but the fact that it is there, with the size runway that it has, and has a range of industries both aviation related and otherwise means that it should be capable of continuing to survive, but as to if it can survive with the present size of terminal and the like is a very different story, and at some stage, those issues are going to have to be addressed by all the stakeholders, and all the political parties, the long term future of Shannon HAS to be looked at on a wider basis than just the party political parish pump level that all too often completely damns Irish Political life.

Van.Bosch · 18-08-2020 2:26pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

And you really think any other political party will be capable of squaring that circle?

If it didn't exist, there is no way that a brand new airport would be built at Shannon, but the fact that it is there, with the size runway that it has, and has a range of industries both aviation related and otherwise means that it should be capable of continuing to survive, but as to if it can survive with the present size of terminal and the like is a very different story, and at some stage, those issues are going to have to be addressed by all the stakeholders, and all the political parties, the long term future of Shannon HAS to be looked at on a wider basis than just the party political parish pump level that all too often completely damns Irish Political life.

I’d say a few years of no/minuscule traffic would be needed to show it’s dead before any politician even toyed with the idea.

Unfortunately that could be starting this year.

NH2013 · 18-08-2020 2:37pm

HTCOne wrote: »

When the new runway in DUB opens, Shannon's only advantage over DUB for EMG diversions is gone.

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

L1011 · 18-08-2020 2:37pm

There are now political demands for it to be brought back under the DAA, after having been moved out seperate due to political demands... the airport equivalent of a cat at the back door.

3d4life · 18-08-2020 3:15pm

Whats the cost of having SNN 'open' per year ? ( assume min capex and no airport income )

Inquitus · 18-08-2020 3:26pm

3d4life wrote: »

Whats the cost of having SNN 'open' per year ? ( assume min capex and no airport income )

The Depreciation charge on the airport and terminal building is €3m annually on its own.

IngazZagni · 18-08-2020 3:33pm

NH2013 wrote: »

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

Has this always been the case? What the hell is the reason for the displaced thresholds? Madness.

HTCOne · 18-08-2020 4:01pm

NH2013 wrote: »

Unfortunately, the new runway in Dublin while longer than the current one for taking off, due to the planned displaced threshold on the new 28R/10L, the actual landing distance available will only be approximately 50m longer than the current 28/10, and still significantly too short for most aircraft, particularly heavy widebody aircraft to land on above their maximum landing weights.

Whether that will serve as a reason to keep Shannon going or not remains to be seen, but it is a factor that will have to be considered.

Another short sighted decision on behalf of aviation and infastructure in Ireland. :rolleyes:

DUB will still be the number one choice for emergency aircraft in Irish airspace for widebodies, particularly at night (it is already), due the lack of immediate required level of fire cover at Shannon. No 777 / A350 / 787 etc is going to hold with a dying passenger or fire alarm in the baggage compartment while the on call fire crews get to Shannon. And if they can visual the landing they can land prior to the displaced threshold anyway. If anything the idea of doing that would appeal to the yanks in particular.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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