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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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    #2252
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,854 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    smurfjed wrote: »
    This is interesting from Eurocontrol

    http://https://twitter.com/eurocontroldg/status/1292125590884175875?s=21https://twitter.com/eurocontroldg/status/1292125590884175875?s=21


    Yes, flights are running, but the load factors are absolutely pathetic.


    Even if I was vaccinated and could travel tomorrow, I probably still wouldn't due to governments changing quarantine restrictions almost daily.


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    #2253
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,928 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Chris_5339762 wrote: »
    Yes, flights are running, but the load factors are absolutely pathetic.


    Even if I was vaccinated and could travel tomorrow, I probably still wouldn't due to governments changing quarantine restrictions almost daily.

    Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

    Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

    Not good compared to normal times obviously, but thats still a hell of a lot of seats being sold. And its going up rapidly every week.

    The budget carriers seem to recovering a lot faster than others. Presumably because they get a lot more last minute travel, a lot more short haul/intra-EU travel, and are a lot less reliant on business travel.


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    #2254
    Jack1985
    Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

    Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

    Not good compared to normal times obviously, but thats still a hell of a lot of seats being sold. And its going up rapidly every week.

    The budget carriers seem to recovering a lot faster than others. Presumably because they get a lot more last minute travel, a lot more short haul travel, and are a lot less reliant on business travel.

    Not being exposed to Long Haul seriously helps matters too. It's the winter I worry about, I think there will be massive capacity reductions by all.


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    #2255
    Noxegon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,502 ✭✭✭Noxegon


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Ryanair flew 40% of its planned July schedule with a load factor of 72%. Its planning to fly 60%+ of normal schedule in August apparently.

    Wizz operated 74% of its planned capacity in July and achieved a load factor of 61%.

    Load factor is one thing, yield is another –– when you can buy tickets for the next day's flight for €19.99 it speaks volumes.

    I develop Superior Solitaire when I'm not procrastinating on boards.ie.



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    #2256
    IngazZagni
    Registered Users Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭IngazZagni


    Exactly and the figures quoted would be for tickets sold rather than passengers flown. No show rates are still sky high showing a lack of passenger confidence. Many of these having bought €20 fares which barely cover the taxes applicable anyway hoping that things would change by the flight date but have not.

    The real test will come from October onwards I feel for the low season. Itll be very tough for airlines especially as very few airlines made a profit in winter even during the good times.


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    #2257
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Cashflow, even if it's not the most profitable revenue in the world, probably does the business a world of good both in the short term but also in the medium term - your capacity to return to operations in a timely manner along with the market is enhanced by the operational capabilities you're keeping going today.


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    #2258
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    If you don't fly you loose money, still got to pay staff, for leases and upkeep on the fleet.

    If you do fly you loose less money as once you have covered the fuel cost, ATC and airport fees you are generating cash. It reduces the burn rate, the closer you can get to breaking even the better


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    #2259
    Tenger
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    I’m guessing that most airlines will need a financial injection (loans or bailout) to allow them to stay in business until next March/April. At which point the hope would be that we have a vaccine and air travel will begin to return to normal.

    But even then the lower performers in 2018/2019 will probably not be able to operate in the lower revenue/traffic numbers environment.


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    #2260
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Noxegon wrote: »
    Load factor is one thing, yield is another –– when you can buy tickets for the next day's flight for €19.99 it speaks volumes.
    19.99 is below cost on most routes. They'd be better off not taking a booking off you and flying an empty plane.
    I am seeing 14.99 fares on my route.

    It isn't just the airlines. Car hire should be almost unaffordable in a normal August and it is so unbelievably cheap. Accommodation isn't cheap in Ireland as there is a lot of staycationing.


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    #2261
    HTCOne
    Registered Users Posts: 869 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    IngazZagni wrote: »
    Many of these having bought €20 fares which barely cover the taxes applicable anyway....

    This got me wondering, if the passenger who booked their flight before COVID kicked off doesn’t show up for a flight that the airline still operates because they don’t want to quarantine etc, does the airline still pay the taxes and airport fees for that passenger?


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    #2262
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    HTCOne wrote: »
    This got me wondering, if the passenger who booked their flight before COVID kicked off doesn’t show up for a flight that the airline still operates because they don’t want to quarantine etc, does the airline still pay the taxes and airport fees for that passenger?

    They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show


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    #2263
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show

    Breakage, major part of the profit margin that typically restaurants going (from vouchers) and possibly now some airlines...!

    In other news, the Indo reporting that the Dublin airport pax falls among the worst out there, -97.2%. Gatwick tho, -99.4%!

    Airports did comparatively better in markets with large internal markets, ala Russia and Turkey.

    Be interesting to see the DAAs revised capital plan after all of this. Back to the drawing board surely on pax fees also with the CAA.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/dublin-airport-suffered-one-of-biggest-falls-in-passenger-numbers-across-the-world-39440081.html


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    #2264
    HTCOne
    Registered Users Posts: 869 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    They pocket the cash, you pay only for passengers who show

    Thanks. This combined with the fact that Eurocontrol ANSPs haven’t been charging ATC fees since February, and won’t be until at least October, probably means break even LF for carriers has dropped.


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    #2265
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Jet fuel is running at half the price it was in January and thats a huge chunk of the operating cost.

    EI is flying around with 40-70 per flight, but they carry freight on most routes.


    All things considered if you can run at 50% load and 50 euro a head you are not in a bad place currrently


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    #2266
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    Jet fuel is running at half the price it was in January and thats a huge chunk of the operating cost.
    EI is flying around with 40-70 per flight, but they carry freight on most routes.
    All things considered if you can run at 50% load and 50 euro a head you are not in a bad place currrently

    Airlines heage fuel costs at the start of the year, so if they get that wrong they'll still pay high prices for fuel that year...

    Ryanair are offering 1000's of seats at €30 one way, though they will make another €30+ on priority boarding and baggage charges, and any of the flights i've been on this year have been almost full apart from maybe a handful of seats.


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    #2267
    HTCOne
    Registered Users Posts: 869 ✭✭✭HTCOne


    There’s probably very few bookings for this winter, and even less for next year. The current situation of airlines operating flights with decent number of seats sold pre covid is likely to end in the next month or two. Could be a very grim winter ahead for jobs in our industry. It will likely start hitting the MROs soon, all those aircraft due in for heavy checks this winter will be mothballed instead. Thousands of MRO jobs alone in Shannon and Dublin at risk.


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    #2268
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

    From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.


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    #2269
    Tenger
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

    From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.

    My sister lives in Hong Kong. Been that way there for weeks now.
    Tested on arrival, placed in quarantine, tested again at the end of the quarantine period.

    Personally I would be happier to see testing testing on arrival at our airports.


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    #2270
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,767 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Airlines heage fuel costs at the start of the year, so if they get that wrong they'll still pay high prices for fuel that year...

    Many airlines don't hedge at all; and its not all January-December contracts either.


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    #2271
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users Posts: 4,139 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Hedges work two ways, you can hedge to pay at a set price (i.e committed) and hedge an option to purchase (no obligation to purchase)


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    #2272
    billy few mates
    Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    Hedges work two ways, you can hedge to pay at a set price (i.e committed) and hedge an option to purchase (no obligation to purchase)

    Plus they normally only hedge a percentage of their fuel...


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    #2273
    WishUWereHere
    Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭WishUWereHere


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Italy now has mandatory testing on all passengers entering Italy from Spain, Greece, Malta and Croatia. The increase in cases recently is mostly due to African migrant ships and returning holidaymakers from those four countries.

    From tomorrow they'll be starting rapid testing at Rome Fiumicino, with a 15-minute turnaround time. The test is based on a saliva sample, so I'm not sure exactly how its reliability compares to the current test.

    I'd never be a fan of this government but hats off to them, they withdrew Malta ( along with others a week ahead of the UK also withdrawing Malta's favourite status.

    For such a small country, am amazed at how quickly their fortunes can turn around. Anyone know what actually happened?


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    #2274
    Comhrá
    Registered Users Posts: 4,760 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    This story is behind the IT paywall but the headline gives the summary.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/ryanair-to-cut-flight-capacity-by-20-as-bookings-fall-1.4332109

    "Ryanair said it would cut its flight capacity by 20 per cent for September and October as the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in some EU countries weakened bookings".


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    #2275
    BZ
    Registered Users Posts: 705 ✭✭✭BZ


    Easyjet feeling the pinch now aswell. They have just announced they are closing Stansted, Newcastle and Southend bases.


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    #2276
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,347 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    The struggle for air capacity in the London area over the past few years will lead to a glut of capacity now with the massive reduction in air traffic. VS have moved all operations ex LGW to LHR and BA are cutting back at LGW too. LGW will then have excess capacity which might see some flights which were at STN/LTN move to LGW. Southend is in serious trouble as it was primarily as an overflow airport for low cost carriers from LGW/STN/LTN.


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    #2277
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,928 ✭✭✭Blut2


    marno21 wrote: »
    The struggle for air capacity in the London area over the past few years will lead to a glut of capacity now with the massive reduction in air traffic. VS have moved all operations ex LGW to LHR and BA are cutting back at LGW too. LGW will then have excess capacity which might see some flights which were at STN/LTN move to LGW. Southend is in serious trouble as it was primarily as an overflow airport for low cost carriers from LGW/STN/LTN.


    London is going to be particularly fascinating to watch over the next 12 months. In a year's time I really wonder what state STN/LTN/SEN will be in. I'd be shocked if they all survived in anything resembling their current form, with LCY/LHR/LGW likely to hoover up the vast majority of what remains of the much reduced demand over winter.


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    #2278
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,113 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Stansted and Luton are safe in my opinion, purely because they are the main bases for Ryanair and easyJet respectively.

    Southend will be one to watch, I can't any quantifiable demand for services from there for the foreseeable future.


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    #2279
    gral6
    Registered Users Posts: 657 ✭✭✭gral6


    Blut2 wrote: »
    London is going to be particularly fascinating to watch over the next 12 months. In a year's time I really wonder what state STN/LTN/SEN will be in. I'd be shocked if they all survived in anything resembling their current form, with LCY/LHR/LGW likely to hoover up the vast majority of what remains of the much reduced demand over winter.

    I'd rather to worry about Cork, Dublin and Shannon


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    #2280
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,854 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Luton is the most likely to go, Southend too.

    City will still attract business because they'll pay whatever.

    Heathrow will keep acting as a hub

    Gatwick will do the same (they're the best managed and will find a way)

    Stansted will also survive because Ryanair will make them!

    I think we'll keep Cork... can't see it shutting even with this. Not with Mr Martin as Taoiseach. Shannon maybe days numbered?


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    #2281
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,347 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Luton is very busy with corporate aircraft too. Presumably both it and Stansted will continue to remain busy with those types of aircraft alongside Biggin Hill and Farnborough.

    If more private slots open at LTN/STN it'll likely affect business at fringe airports like Oxford.


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