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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    There will always be demand for new build houses in a growing population, hence there will always be construction.

    My point is I believe the current discourse is flawed and if it leads to building 35,000+ per annum units, majority of which are 3/4 bed family homes in the suburbs/commuter belts it will lead to a massive oversupply in the relatively near future.

    I believe Manchester United were the best team in England last season and will win the league next season. Both of those beliefs are bollo*x as they are not supported by fact. I have a vested interest in that I support United.
    I read articles by the toss*er hearne and he said the type of units being delivered has to be correct so there could of be a point there.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I believe Manchester United were the best team in England last season and will win the league next season. Both of those beliefs are bollo*x as they are not supported by fact. I have a vested interest in that I support United.
    I read articles by the toss*er hearne and he said the type of units being delivered has to be correct so there could of be a point there.

    My belief is based on facts.

    Though plenty of posters have told me that those facts are from discredited data sources.

    Like the CSO.

    I’m yet to hear an intelligent argument that has persuaded me otherwise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 152 ✭✭JamesMason


    schmittel wrote: »
    My belief is based on facts.

    Though plenty of posters have told me that those facts are from discredited data sources.

    Like the CSO.

    I’m yet to hear an intelligent argument that has persuaded me otherwise.
    The US economy is in tatters...the UK economy has fell into the deepest recession in living memory. However, in Ireland sure it's grand..quick buy a house now...demand is high ...get in now before it's too late.
    It's like CoVid never happened. Bat**** crazy behaviour. When the penny drops in the autumn the SWHTF.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    There are also some such as yourself who say there is no housing shortage. If so why should there be any construction?
    Whatever about demand or availability of credit, there looks to me like a requirement of accommodation. This will have to be provided by the government in some form. There are some idiots that believe the waven pipe spouted out by Sinn Fein.
    Irrespective of what policy you have there is a finite number of construction operatives in this country which determines the number of units that can be delivered. You could always increase the number of migrants to work in construction that could magically build the houses they will live in as well as the houses they will build for commercial purposes.
    The rest is just noise.
    To add, only an idiot would think that prices won’t be adversely affected by current economic issues.

    I don't think there is a shortage of construction workers in Ireland at the moment or for the foreseeable future.

    The latest Build 2020 Report in July 2020 from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform states: "that while construction sector employment in 2019 exceeded the level of employment in the year 2000, the number of new dwellings completed in 2019 is estimated to be approximately 60 percent, or over 30,000 units, lower than in the year 2000. This suggests that there is easily enough construction labour in Ireland to meet the housing demand."

    You can read it here: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/c19a5-build-2020-construction-sector-performance-and-capacity/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,249 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    JamesMason wrote: »
    The US economy is in tatters...the UK economy has fell into the deepest recession in living memory. However, in Ireland sure it's grand..quick buy a house now...demand is high ...get in now before it's too late.
    It's like CoVid never happened. Bat**** crazy behaviour. When the penny drops in the autumn the SWHTF.

    It’s autumn now is it ? And when it doesn’t happen in autumn it’ll be q1 next year and so on

    Eventually you will be right like a stopped clock


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,621 ✭✭✭wassie


    schmittel wrote: »
    Ok, so why in your opinion will the availability of property go down?

    Availability of property has already gone down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    A few years ago, they changed their measurement of counting new homes entering the market from ESB connections to actual new builds. The ESB measurement used up to then was only counted if the home had been disconnected for at least 2 years previously and then re-connected, which signaled that it was now being used as a home.

    I'm sure people will say it's insane logic, but have we actually been under-counting the supply of homes entering the market over the past few years.

    Surely, if a house was previously vacant for two years and then re-enters the market, that's the equivalent of a new home entering the market (new build or not), but we have only been counting new builds and may have being significantly under-counting the actual true number of homes entering the market by just concentrating on new builds.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Surely, if a house was previously vacant for two years and then re-enters the market, that's the equivalent of a new home entering the market

    that could mean a single property is counted as a 'new build' multiple times.

    Probably better that we don't start double counting properties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    that could mean a single property is counted as a 'new build' multiple times.

    Probably better that we don't start double counting properties.

    I don't think so as it had to be disconnected for at least two years previously before being counted.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    I don't think so as it had to be disconnected for at least two years previously before being counted.

    which implies it was previously connected and the second connection would be when the house was sold as a second hand house.

    I don't see any benefit at all to adding second-hand houses into the new build counts.

    There are many counties where your suggested approach would leave the impression there had been enormous amounts of construction activity over the last 10 years when there has in fact been none.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    which implies it was previously connected and the second connection would be when the house was sold as a second hand house.

    I don't see any benefit at all to adding second-hand houses into the new build counts.

    There are many counties where your suggested approach would leave the impression there had been enormous amounts of construction activity over the last 10 years when there has in fact been none.

    Good point. But it would also provide reliable data on the number of vacant homes coming back into use. Maybe they should re-introduce the ESB connections data alongside the new build data to give us a picture of both new builds and previously vacant homes re-entering the market.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Good point. But it would also provide reliable data on the number of vacant homes coming back into use. Maybe they should re-introduce the ESB connections data alongside the new build data to give us a picture of both new builds and previously vacant homes re-entering the market.

    Would also need to be balanced with the number of properties leaving the market.

    Not a bad idea but that's probably a topic for another thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    I don't think there is a shortage of construction workers in Ireland at the moment or for the foreseeable future.

    The latest Build 2020 Report in July 2020 from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform states: "that while construction sector employment in 2019 exceeded the level of employment in the year 2000, the number of new dwellings completed in 2019 is estimated to be approximately 60 percent, or over 30,000 units, lower than in the year 2000. This suggests that there is easily enough construction labour in Ireland to meet the housing demand."

    You can read it here: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/c19a5-build-2020-construction-sector-performance-and-capacity/

    Thank you, will take a look - productivity summary gives a couple of interesting highlights. If employment levels are high why has productivity fallen so much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Thank you, will take a look - productivity summary gives a couple of interesting highlights. If employment levels are high why has productivity fallen so much.

    I would assume they were employed in office and student accommodation developments. They can probably now hopefully easily move over to residential development.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    schmittel wrote: »
    Is this the wait and see argument? I.e if you don’t have to sell you would be better off staying put to see how all this plays out?

    Well it would make sense I mean we are in an unprecedented situation of a pandemic never seen before but you also have to weigh up that some people have been waiting for prices to drop from the day the term Brexit was coined so there is a lot of pent up demand as well


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Not sure if this is a good example, but asking prices in this estate in South Dublin are now back at the prices they sold for in 2014.

    This is the house on MyHome.ie: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-glenbourne-grove-leopardstown-dublin-18/4447555

    These are the actual selling prices on the same road in the estate according to the Property Price Register over the past number of years: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=[address]=Glenbourne%20Grove%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Glenbourne%20Grove

    *You may have to copy and paste the link for the Property Price Register page to go to the page for that estate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    I'd be willing to bet €100 that sells for more than 450K if anyone wants to take me up on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Cyrus wrote: »
    It’s autumn now is it ? And when it doesn’t happen in autumn it’ll be q1 next year and so on

    Eventually you will be right like a stopped clock

    He can't tell you when the radical State interventions will end but it's soon after that. Wake up.


  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    accensi0n wrote: »
    I'd be willing to bet €100 that sells for more than 450K if anyone wants to take me up on it.

    i sold on this road in 2016, for 455k, which was over asking, so I reckon it's about right.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    My limited, tiny experience of looking to buy is that apartments are going for under asking; houses are not. I think because of the pandemic, people want access to outside space even more than before. It's certainly true for me. I would now prefer a house to an apartment, even if it's in a worse area.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Shelga wrote: »
    My limited, tiny experience of looking to buy is that apartments are going for under asking; houses are not. I think because of the pandemic, people want access to outside space even more than before. It's certainly true for me. I would now prefer a house to an apartment, even if it's in a worse area.

    Not in my experience. Area is always the most important factor.


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Iceman29 wrote: »

    Those approvals are for final approval I believe, not AIP, in case anyone reads into it as a leading indicator. It would correlate closely with the number of transactions completed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Not in my experience. Area is always the most important factor.

    Oh I agree that an apartment in a desirable area will be priced higher than a house in a less desirable area, but I suppose what I mean is, apartments don't seem to be shifting as quickly.

    There have been bids coming in steadily for houses I've looked at, but not apartments. Could be that the owner is pricing too high, though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Those approvals are for final approval I believe, not AIP, in case anyone reads into it as a leading indicator. It would correlate closely with the number of transactions completed.

    Isn't that the important one?

    AIP can be done online in 2 mins


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Those approvals are for final approval I believe, not AIP, in case anyone reads into it as a leading indicator. It would correlate closely with the number of transactions completed.

    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy

    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    It's more than I thought we would see

    People bidding on properties that they won't be able to draw down and buy is surely an issue now?

    Would love to see sale agreed stat's

    Guessing a load of people have agreed to buy houses, they won't be able to buy

    Yeah I didn't expect such a big number. 31% is huge and you're dead right about people with AIP bidding on houses. If I was buying a house I'd be putting a low ball offer and leave it there. Wouldn't get involved with a bidding war with someone who can't actually buy it.

    Something should be done about this type of bidding


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Browney7 wrote: »
    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.

    I thought it would be worse.

    The payment holiday will start to.impact banks Tier1 capital position. If 10% of borrowers are not repaying, that represents serious headwinds for banks.

    They have no alternative but to reduce lending.

    That said, this number is not consistent with posters saying houses flying off the shelves.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Yeah I didn't expect such a big number. 31% is huge and you're dead right about people with AIP bidding on houses. If I was buying a house I'd be putting a low ball offer and leave it there. Wouldn't get involved with a bidding war with someone who can't actually buy it.

    Something should be done about this type of bidding

    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.

    Not really, solicitors and mortgage brokers were all working during lockdown. The whole paper side of buying a house was all working. The only thing that was affected was the viewings and that wasn't for that long really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Not sure if this is a good example, but asking prices in this estate in South Dublin are now back at the prices they sold for in 2014.

    This is the house on MyHome.ie: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-glenbourne-grove-leopardstown-dublin-18/4447555

    These are the actual selling prices on the same road in the estate according to the Property Price Register over the past number of years: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=[address]=Glenbourne%20Grove%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Glenbourne%20Grove

    *You may have to copy and paste the link for the Property Price Register page to go to the page for that estate.

    One observation re 23 versus 11 - 23 appears to have an extension - which potentially makes it worth more. So not exactly like with like.

    Need to see sale price for 11 to see how it compares to 23

    Edit: 16 on the other hand looks very very expensive


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,346 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.

    I wish I was bidding against you


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Isn't that the important one?

    AIP can be done online in 2 mins

    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier?
    I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.

    Me too were there not 1 million employees on some kind of Covid support that is about half the working population, I would of thought the same number would of been seen in people not getting approvals


  • Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    There must be a lot of rejections.

    Covid payment recipients are probably being rejected


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    I wish I was bidding against you

    Me too. Hold low and lose out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.

    Good luck with that but if you ignore the supply side of this equation then there is no helping you, in less than 6 months we have seen nearly 20% less proerties available on Myhome if that continues the supply vs demand will be pretty much the same..As in if I have 10 apples and 10 people want to buy then the price is set, if 5 people no longer want an apple then the price drops but if we take 5 apples out then the price reset to what it was.

    Seriously any buying or selling look at both sides of this coin I have been saying for months now the supply side is dwindling to a very low level myhome is down 30 from yesterday and the day is not over.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    There must be a lot of rejections.

    Covid payment recipients are probably being rejected

    And rightly so I mean if your employer needs the state to come in and pay some of your wages then your job is not safe and it would be incorrect for a bank to take a risk on you


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    fliball123 wrote: »
    And rightly so I mean if your employer needs the state to come in and pay some of your wages then your job is not safe and it would be incorrect for a bank to take a risk on you

    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    That's not demand. That's dreaming.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    JamesMason wrote: »
    The US economy is in tatters...the UK economy has fell into the deepest recession in living memory. However, in Ireland sure it's grand..quick buy a house now...demand is high ...get in now before it's too late.
    It's like CoVid never happened. Bat**** crazy behaviour. When the penny drops in the autumn the SWHTF.

    The UK economy did indeed fall into the deepest recession in living memory.

    It is also having the fastest return in living memory.

    It's because this was a shut down, not a systemic shut off that a normal recession is.

    Heck, in the US Donald is bragging about having the greatest job creation numbers ever recorded...... Because of the massive drop followed by people swinging back into jobs. Yes it won't all come back and yes some of it will come back more slowly, but saying "the economy is in tatters" is not actually the whole or accurate story.

    But again, the doom sayers here are fighting the last war.
    Cyrus wrote: »
    It’s autumn now is it ? And when it doesn’t happen in autumn it’ll be q1 next year and so on

    Eventually you will be right like a stopped clock

    Amen.
    Iceman29 wrote: »
    So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals
    ie banks tightening the rules.
    31% less people able to draw down.
    31% less demand
    31% less people able to borrow
    31% that will will grow as more job losses happen

    This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here

    Not ie, banks tightening the rules as mentioned elsewhere. Also conveyancing shutting, life assurance slowing or shutting, building sites shutting....
    Browney7 wrote: »
    I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either.

    I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.

    I do think a small decline is possible. But a 5% decline in the price of a 400k house to 380k, whilst providing you with a smaller mortgage over the lifetime will mean that your repayments if you're a FTB fall from €1,248 per month (UB, FTB looking at their calculator today) to €1,186 per month. Meanwhile, are you renting? For, say, €1,500 or €2,000 per month? Waiting three or six months to see that drop materialise may well not be worth it to be honest.
    Iceman29 wrote: »
    Not really, solicitors and mortgage brokers were all working during lockdown. The whole paper side of buying a house was all working. The only thing that was affected was the viewings and that wasn't for that long really.

    This is incorrect and speaks to the sort of hand waving waffle that permeates this discussion. The property registration authority shut on 27 March for example, for searches and only slowly has been returning service after about a month totally out of action; and Land Registry is still I believe operating a reduced service after being shut for new applications even longer. The probate office closed. The company registration office still continues to operate at reduced capacity (it is required for some searches). Life assurance was stalled significantly, both from the nature of working from home with the data they handle and also because their medical centers had to shut during lockdown for anyone who needed to be assessed.

    There was a tonne of administrative stoppages and delays that mean that "the whole paper side of buying a house" was not, in fact, working normally and continues to work at a reduced capacity.

    As I note above, another thing that will slow down final approvals and houses is that building sites shut. In my own estate they're still building and people who were supposed to be in their new homes for months now will be lucky to get in by Christmas.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them

    But no one knows what might happen between point A and Point B say the Bar owner dies and the kids dont want to open and just want to sell, then you have no job. The only measure for success should be when your business is back open and the state is no longer helping with paying your employees. The employee should be back off Covid payments for at least 3 months before they can draw down a mortgage


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    It wont if the availability of property goes down as well as the numbers that can buy go down the status quo continues supply vs demand = price this has always been and always will be the basis of any price

    The idea that if supply falls equally to match a fall in demand means that there is no net effect on price is ridiculous:

    The supply is falling because people who might otherwise have property on the market but who don't have to sell, or wish to hold out for a better price, or will wait and see, will decide not to sell.

    So basically less sellers who do not have to sell = drop in supply.

    Demand is falling because unemployment is rising, mortgage approvals are down, people are more cautious, uncertainty will cause them to wait and see.

    So basically less buyers who are the most sensitive to consumer confidence and strength of economy = drop in demand.

    Plenty on here, not just fliball, seem to think that this supply/demand drop will balance each other out and have no significant effect, and that some of us, like myself, are too thick to understand the concept of supply and demand.

    But have they considered that their logic consists of taking the strongest sellers out of the market? - i.e the properties that will be on the market will be forced sellers, and those who don't wish to wait and see for whatever reason.

    And the weakest buyers have been taken out of the market - those who only get mortgage approval in the good times etc. It will be cash buyers and those with rock solid incomes that remain.

    Sure supply might drop to match demand but if it does so we have a market that is dominated by weak sellers and strong buyers.

    Otherwise known as a buyers market, characterised by lower prices.


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    fliball123 wrote: »
    AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy

    I want to buy a helicopter but unfortunately I can't afford it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,507 ✭✭✭fliball123


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    That's not demand. That's dreaming.

    Ah in fairness its not if someone has physically gone through the trouble of identifying a property, going to see once maybe twice, gone through the bidding process, gone to the bank to ask about a mortgage, jumped through the hoops to get approval and then waiting for draw down and are told its not happening due to Covid, its hardly dreaming they have physically done a lot of things. they may of been dreaming of being married to a model and iiving on a huge yacht of the south coast of France but to say to want to own and live in your own place in Ireland is dreaming is a bit of a stretch.


  • Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    JJJackal wrote: »
    Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them

    I don't think so. Pubs especially will probably never be the same again. Won't be making the same money again and jobs will defo be at risk


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Ah in fairness its not if someone has physically gone through the trouble of identifying a property, going to see once maybe twice, gone through the bidding process, gone to the bank to ask about a mortgage, jumped through the hoops to get approval and then waiting for draw down and are told its not happening due to Covid, its hardly dreaming they have physically done a lot of things. they may of been dreaming of being married to a model and iiving on a huge yacht of the south coast of France but to say to want to own and live in your own place in Ireland is dreaming is a bit of a stretch.

    AIP can be done online in a few mins

    You can lie through your teeth to get it

    No one should be bidding with it


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