Scottish independence

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

People who assume Scotland would be Ireland's friend if independent need only think back to the Rockall drama a few months ago.

That was Edinburgh driving that, not Westminster.

Westminster decided Rockall was part of the UK and allocated it to Scotland with its own exclusion zone around it and fisheries is devolved to Scotland therefore Scotland is implementing Westminster law

bob mcbob wrote: »

From these guys -

The Henry Jackson Society is a libertarian British foreign policy think tank. It has been described as right-wing, but positions itself as cross-partisan, with support from some left-leaning politicians.

A couple of points on the article -
- London has started to take Russian interest in Scotland seriously and has adopted a "Fusion Doctrine" to counter hybrid warfare. So that is what Boris, JRM, et al are up to - sorry I did not realise
- SNP wants to join NATO but opposes Trident - this is ironic as these submarines provide NATOs nuclear deterrence in Europe Which other NATO country has it's main nuclear arsenal 30 miles from it's main population centre?

The Scottish Government states that the Trident submarines and nuclear weapons belong to rUK and should be stationed there. The UK knows that they do not have any facility for them anywhere else other than Scotland hence the 'colonial' keep

How many NATO members are nuclear armed?

Eric Cartman wrote: »

considering how the EU feels about our rate, I would only imagine on the very slim chance of them getting back into the EU, that not dropping it below 19% would be the basis of any agreement to let them in to stop precisely that.

With the Catalan situation still unresolved Scotland may be a long way from EU membership so it could be a moot point.

With regards to a referendum campaign I can imagine the independence side offering their own versions of sunlit uplands and unicorns that the Leave campaign did for Brexit.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

With the Catalan situation still unresolved Scotland may be a long way from EU membership so it could be a moot point.

The only EU Country that was against Scottish independence was Spain.
That changed after Brexit.
Spain now would not oppose Scotland secessing from another non-EU Country.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-scotland/spain-would-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-minister-idUSKCN1NP26D



I can actually see France being in favour of Scotland gaining independence and joining the EU.
It would mean access to Scottish fishing waters for French fishing vessels.

The SNP, while saying they want to join the EU after an independence vote are also saying they want to retain their own currency etc. They appear to believe they would have the same exceptions the UK won for itself.

I think the Scottish are unlikely to vote for independence. Independence creates uncertainty and most Scottish people are rathr conservative, especially in matters fiscal.

Not only should Scotland become independent from england but we should unit our clans and become one Celtic nation with Scotland

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But the whole resurgence in Scottish independence since the 2014 referendum has been around the idea that they are being dragged out of the EU by the English.

Not quite clear as that, Scotland was split 55% - 45% on the independence question. The 45% mostly moved to vote for the SNP in subsequent elections to keep the pressure on and the SNP put a manifesto commitment that they would seek another referendum if Brexit happens and Scotland voted to remain. This was a material change since the 2014 referendum as the No side claimed that the only way to stay in the EU was to vote No

The SNP asked the Tories to make the Brexit referendum contingent on all 4 constituent countries of of the UK voting to leave, this was refused and Scottish interests and views have been ignored ever since

If independence is possible without EU membership then it's not as appealing is it ?

Scotland cannot currently make any decision about EFTA/EU/EEA or any other group as they are hitched to whatever England whats to do and England currently does not want to do what is in Scotlands interests

Overheal wrote: »

If they wanted to secede I mean sure, wish them luck

A hard border between Roscommon and Mayo would great.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

especially for people and businesses along the border between Scotland and England.

The border between Scotland and England is much more straightforward then the NI/Republic border.

It is only 154 km long vs. 500 km in Ireland, and a lot of it is across remote/mountainous national park. Berwick-upon-Tweed is the only biggish town nearby, and it is only 12,000 people, so similar to Strabane vs. Derry with 90,000.

Aegir wrote: »

It’s still a border though and would still mean regulatory and customs checks.

If the Irish back stop was just about it being a bit difficult then the UK would have left the Eu by now.

It will be ignored by Scottish Nationalists though and written off as project fear.

The SNP have been actively planning this for years. I'd hazard a guess they'd be a lot more organised than the absolute chaos that is Brexit.

The behaviour towards Scottish politicians has been abhorrent. I can guarantee that treating the majority party in a regional Parliament in such a way will result in a response. The current government is burning bridges left, right and centre at the minute and I can't tell if it's a result of arrogance or sheer stupidity.

Aegir wrote: »

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland ) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

Yep
The campaign for an independent Scotland will be full of their version of sunlit uplands and unicorns and as you previously implied anything negative will be called project fear.

Aegir wrote: »

and the Scots now know that a lot of the issues written off as project fear are actually project fact.

They also know exactly how difficult it is to untangle a country from a union.

Sure, but they are being dragged out of the European Union against their will right now.

So Independence will be out of one union, but back into another one, one with a decent record of supporting smaller member countries. A different story from the UK trying to escape into non-existent sunlit uplands.

Aegir wrote: »

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre

Can you post any evidence of that?

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

I suspect you're not debating in good faith but I'll engage nonetheless.

The response will be from the electorate, according to you the SNP are losing ground which I'd like to see evidence of as anything I've seen is the opposite. The electorate will almost certainly hand an overwhelming majority mandate to the SNP, which in turn puts more weight behind another independence referendum. The Scots have been totter ally sidelined by the Tories and their voices ignored regarding Brexit, I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a response.