Scottish independence

Aegir wrote: »

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

Great you accept that in FPTP, 37% is an acceptable level of the peoples votes to bring forward legislation that fundamentally alters a nations future.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

Legislation for which was put before the House of Commons and supported by the Labour Party

Aegir wrote: »

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

Really Ironic.

37% is the share of the vote the Tories got in 2015. They considered this a mandate for the Brexit vote.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

when Theresa May called the last election, the SNP were polling on 47 to 49%, they ended up with 37%.

First past the post really worked in their favour as well, giving the SNP 35 of 59 seats.

I would wait for your chickens to hatch, before counting them.

Aegir wrote: »

ten of the thirteen seats they lost at the last election?

Yes thats right - they are on track for 45+ seats out of 59.
Not bad for a party losing support right, left and centre.

I also don't think your point about "blind nationalism" really stands up.
I think most Scots recognise that the SNP are the only adults in the room.

Water John

The Tories just, borrowed them. They'll be handing them back soon.
It will be strange for a country to be possibly governed by a political party or similar minded one, with no elected members of Parliament, in that country.

bob mcbob wrote: »

That is news to me - can you supply some evidence for this.
The latest poll I have seen said that the SNP was on course to pick up 10 Tory seats at the next election.

ten of the thirteen seats they lost at the last election?

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

I suspect you're not debating in good faith but I'll engage nonetheless.

The response will be from the electorate, according to you the SNP are losing ground which I'd like to see evidence of as anything I've seen is the opposite. The electorate will almost certainly hand an overwhelming majority mandate to the SNP, which in turn puts more weight behind another independence referendum. The Scots have been totter ally sidelined by the Tories and their voices ignored regarding Brexit, I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a response.

Aegir wrote: »

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland ) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

Is there a point that you disagree with or is it just a general whinge?

Aegir wrote: »

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre

Can you post any evidence of that?

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

That is news to me - can you supply some evidence for this.
The latest poll I have seen said that the SNP was on course to pick up 10 Tory seats at the next election.

derrymcorry

The EU is much better than the UK. I'd much rather a country being a full member of the EU than a part of the UK.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Sure, but they are being dragged out of the European Union against their will right now.

So Independence will be out of one union, but back into another one, one with a decent record of supporting smaller member countries. A different story from the UK trying to escape into non-existent sunlit uplands.

By no means guaranteed and a long way down the road.

Zubeneschamali

Aegir wrote: »

and the Scots now know that a lot of the issues written off as project fear are actually project fact.

They also know exactly how difficult it is to untangle a country from a union.

Sure, but they are being dragged out of the European Union against their will right now.

So Independence will be out of one union, but back into another one, one with a decent record of supporting smaller member countries. A different story from the UK trying to escape into non-existent sunlit uplands.

Jim2007 wrote: »

The winning party in a referendum almost always looses in a repeat.... the loosing party now know the full impact of the arguments used to win and will be able to more effectively challenge them second time around.

and the Scots now know that a lot of the issues written off as project fear are actually project fact.

They also know exactly how difficult it is to untangle a country from a union.

Aegir wrote: »

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland ) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

Yep
The campaign for an independent Scotland will be full of their version of sunlit uplands and unicorns and as you previously implied anything negative will be called project fear.

Jim2007

Aegir wrote: »

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

The winning party in a referendum almost always looses in a repeat.... the loosing party now know the full impact of the arguments used to win and will be able to more effectively challenge them second time around.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

1. The Tories are refusing another Section 30 order therefore there is no referendum confirmed and is unlikely to take place for at least another 4-6 months if the order was agreed
2. If Scotland voted for independence then it will probably be another 2 years before independence takes place
3. Scotland would not join the EU immediately as it will need to demonstrate how it meets the criteria
4. It is reasonable to suggest that Scotland and rUK would enjoy a CTA similar to Ireland and UK
5. It is reasonable to suggest that some sort of trade agreement will take place between Scotland and rUK
6. The UK trade arrangement with the EU is unknown at this point therefore we do not know what the border will look like if Scotland joins the EU

I do find it mildly amusing that Scottish Nationalists (or is that Irish nationalists in Scotland

) seem to have completely missed the shenanigans over Brexit and seem to think that somehow none of that will apply to them.

circadian wrote: »

The SNP have been actively planning this for years. I'd hazard a guess they'd be a lot more organised than the absolute chaos that is Brexit.

The behaviour towards Scottish politicians has been abhorrent. I can guarantee that treating the majority party in a regional Parliament in such a way will result in a response. The current government is burning bridges left, right and centre at the minute and I can't tell if it's a result of arrogance or sheer stupidity.

what sort of response? are the SNP going to declare war or something?

They should sort out their own backyard first though, they seem to be losing support left right and centre as the Scots start to realise that there is a bot more to running a country than blind nationalism.

Aegir wrote: »

It’s still a border though and would still mean regulatory and customs checks.

If the Irish back stop was just about it being a bit difficult then the UK would have left the Eu by now.

It will be ignored by Scottish Nationalists though and written off as project fear.

The SNP have been actively planning this for years. I'd hazard a guess they'd be a lot more organised than the absolute chaos that is Brexit.

The behaviour towards Scottish politicians has been abhorrent. I can guarantee that treating the majority party in a regional Parliament in such a way will result in a response. The current government is burning bridges left, right and centre at the minute and I can't tell if it's a result of arrogance or sheer stupidity.

1. The Tories are refusing another Section 30 order therefore there is no referendum confirmed and is unlikely to take place for at least another 4-6 months if the order was agreed
2. If Scotland voted for independence then it will probably be another 2 years before independence takes place
3. Scotland would not join the EU immediately as it will need to demonstrate how it meets the criteria
4. It is reasonable to suggest that Scotland and rUK would enjoy a CTA similar to Ireland and UK
5. It is reasonable to suggest that some sort of trade agreement will take place between Scotland and rUK
6. The UK trade arrangement with the EU is unknown at this point therefore we do not know what the border will look like if Scotland joins the EU

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The border between Scotland and England is much more straightforward then the NI/Republic border.

It is only 154 km long vs. 500 km in Ireland, and a lot of it is across remote/mountainous national park. Berwick-upon-Tweed is the only biggish town nearby, and it is only 12,000 people, so similar to Strabane vs. Derry with 90,000.

It’s still a border though and would still mean regulatory and customs checks.

If the Irish back stop was just about it being a bit difficult then the UK would have left the Eu by now.

It will be ignored by Scottish Nationalists though and written off as project fear.

New poll out by Ashcroft and it confirms UK is heading for dissolution

https://twitter.com/AileanBeaton/status/1186172707706146816

Zubeneschamali

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

especially for people and businesses along the border between Scotland and England.

The border between Scotland and England is much more straightforward then the NI/Republic border.

It is only 154 km long vs. 500 km in Ireland, and a lot of it is across remote/mountainous national park. Berwick-upon-Tweed is the only biggish town nearby, and it is only 12,000 people, so similar to Strabane vs. Derry with 90,000.

Aegir wrote: »

Is a hard border with England in Scotland’s interests?

If we have learned anything thus far from Brexit it is that decoupling from existing unions is not trivial.
So imagine what decoupling Scotland from the rest of the UK would be like, especially for people and businesses along the border between Scotland and England.

Any who suggests otherwise would be like Liam Fox in 2017.

beggars_bush

Overheal wrote: »

If they wanted to secede I mean sure, wish them luck

A hard border between Roscommon and Mayo would great.

Aegir wrote: »

Is a hard border with England in Scotland’s interests?

Maybe, maybe not

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Scotland cannot currently make any decision about EFTA/EU/EEA or any other group as they are hitched to whatever England whats to do and England currently does not want to do what is in Scotlands interests

Is a hard border with England in Scotland’s interests?

derrymcorry

TeaBagMania wrote: »

Not only should Scotland become independent from england but we should unit our clans and become one Celtic nation with Scotland

This is a fantastic idea, but not as full countries but maybe in an EU alliance.

When there is a united Ireland and let's be real here it will happen before 2050, an independent Scotland would be a great ally given that most of the loyalists in the Six Counties are Scottish.