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Midterm Elections

24567…10

Comments

  • #52
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Yeah I reckon if the Democrats are to have any chance of claiming the Senate then they have to win one of Texas and Tennessee.

    I just can't see it, but if Beto wins Texas then he's going to be a big player in American politics until he runs for President (if he wins tonight, then it'll be a case of 'when'). The media love him and he's also popular among the likes of Ellen DeGeneres and that cohort.

    However I think the Democrats when eventually rue poor campaigning in North Dakota, as the other 7 are entirely up for grabs and we could easily end up with Mike Pence being the deciding Senate vote.


  • #53
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,333 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Yeah I reckon if the Democrats are to have any chance of claiming the Senate then they have to win one of Texas and Tennessee.

    I just can't see it, but if Beto wins Texas then he's going to be a big player in American politics until he runs for President (if he wins tonight, then it'll be a case of 'when'). The media love him and he's also popular among the likes of Ellen DeGeneres and that cohort.

    However I think the Democrats when eventually rue poor campaigning in North Dakota, as the other 7 are entirely up for grabs and we could easily end up with Mike Pence being the deciding Senate vote.
    I think the winning Democrat factor is simply Trump himself; even with a poor candidate (Hillary) Democrats won the popular vote on low turn out. This election looks likely to have noticeable higher than usual turnout which is likely to benefit the democrats and Trump's politics (and general behaviour) has been a driving factor in making that possible (compared to a generic R candidate such as a Bush etc.).

    I was considering staying up to wait for the first results but I got a feeling it would be a waste of my time before there's enough results in to get an initial feel how things are leaning.


  • #54
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The CNN exit poll on voters doesn't look good for the GOP. Very large no think the country is going the wrong direction. 16% first time voters.


  • #55
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    The CNN exit poll on voters doesn't look good for the GOP. Very large no think the country is going the wrong direction. 16% first time voters.

    One caveat though is that these numbers are preliminary and appear to be going on as people vote.

    Also if you have the CNN app you can watch the live coverage. They have dropped the block they have normally. NBC haven't which is strange, and the abc news app also shows the election coverage.


  • #56
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Healthcare is the most important election issue which will be good for the democrats.


  • #57
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The Republican Party are not liked which is hardly surprising but Nancy pelosi is not liked. Let's say the dems do take back the House of Representatives tonight(well in January technically) how can she be a uniting speaker if in a CNN exit poll she's not liked by a good margain.


  • #58
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Water John wrote: »
    The CNN exit poll on voters doesn't look good for the GOP. Very large no think the country is going the wrong direction. 16% first time voters.

    But a large majority of voters in that exit poll feel the economy is doing well. It was a point made on CNN that how do you Square those two numbers.


  • #59
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,634 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Yeah I reckon if the Democrats are to have any chance of claiming the Senate then they have to win one of Texas and Tennessee.

    I just can't see it, but if Beto wins Texas then he's going to be a big player in American politics until he runs for President (if he wins tonight, then it'll be a case of 'when'). The media love him and he's also popular among the likes of Ellen DeGeneres and that cohort.

    However I think the Democrats when eventually rue poor campaigning in North Dakota, as the other 7 are entirely up for grabs and we could easily end up with Mike Pence being the deciding Senate vote.

    Politico had an interesting piece where they were saying that whilst the Beto hype has worked really well to build his national profile that it could have worked against him in terms of the state election as he's slightly forgotten his focus on the local issues


  • #60
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The governors races in Florida and Georgia could really be historic. Stacy Abrams was actually invited to the governors mansion when she was in high school and was refused entry initially. How amazing would it be for her to become the inhabitant of that house in 2018.


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  • #61
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    One caveat though is that these numbers are preliminary and appear to be going on as people vote.

    Also if you have the CNN app you can watch the live coverage. They have dropped the block they have normally. NBC haven't which is strange, and the abc news app also shows the election coverage.
    I would issue an even bigger caveat.

    CNN's preliminary exit poll numbers say 54% view the Republican party unfavourably and 43% view them favourably.

    The Democrats are viewed favourably by 50% and unfavourably by 46%.

    For the Democrats that's slightly better than the corresponding (completed) exit poll in 2016 which gave them a 47% favourable/49% unfavourable rating.

    But tonight's preliminary numbers are actually better than the full 2016 exit poll numbers for the Republicans, which gave them a 55% unfavourable/40% favourable rating.

    2016 numbers for this criteria are towards the bottom this link.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls


  • #62
    Captain Obvious
    Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    The governors races in Florida and Georgia could really be historic. Stacy Abrams was actually invited to the governors mansion when she was in high school and was refused entry initially. How amazing would it be for her to become the inhabitant of that house in 2018.


    Yeah but

    Ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election in Georgia, an armed militia has threatened violence if Stacey Abrams wins the governor’s race. In a since edited Facebook post, the far-right group III% Security Force Intel referred to the Democratic candidate as a “flag burning, gun grabbing, socialist bitch.” The group mentioned their love for Donald Trump and wrote, “Guns Up!”


  • #63
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,104 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Wouldn't trust anything put up on Facebook


  • #64
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Captain Obvious wrote: »
    Yeah but

    Well if she's elected it's going to change the opinions of the handbangers in that state.

    There was an add that used very unflattering language towards her.


  • #65
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Around 10 minutes to the first results.

    Most of Indiana's polls close then a couple of mid-west House seats could give us a pointer to how the night will go.

    This is 538's guide for what results to watch for hour by hour.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-election-polls-close


  • #66
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    So more women and minorities are wanted to by the electorate. That's not a great sign for the GOP who's base isn't that broad or diverse.


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  • #67
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Water John wrote: »
    The CNN exit poll on voters doesn't look good for the GOP. Very large no think the country is going the wrong direction. 16% first time voters.
    Should be clarified that that's 16% first-time mid-term election voters, so doesn't include 2016.

    The Democrats will clearly win the popular House vote, but I fear because of gerrymandering they might need around an 8% national lead to actually win more seats.


  • #68
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The first results are finally nearly here. Christ it's felt an age for this moment.


  • #69
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    GOP sources are saying that trumps immigration stance looks to have hurt their chances.


  • #70
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    First governorship called for Dems in Guam, flipping from two term Rep. <50% so no run off.


  • #71
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Rhineshark wrote: »
    First governorship called for Dems in Guam, flipping from two term Rep. <50% so no run off.

    Guam ? Oh yeah you'd forget about them.


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  • #72
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    GOP sources are saying that trumps immigration stance looks to have hurt their chances.
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.


  • #73
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,104 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    hill16bhoy wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.

    Huh...

    Nearly 50 per cent say too tough


    That's more than majority of other options.


  • #74
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    hill16bhoy wrote: »
    I'm not so sure about that based on the numbers though.

    CNN saying 48% consider it "too tough".

    32% say it's "about right" and 16% say "it's not tough enough". Add that together and they add up to 48% with a hardline stance.

    Those numbers don't look particularly great for Democrats on the face of it.

    Most of the right have been moaning for weeks about his language and how he handled the terrorist attacks and the caravan for a while to be fair.

    Its crazy as while he was erratic back in 2016, that message "MAGA" clearly resonated with so many.

    The "Brown people in the caravan are coming to take your money " is even if you agree with it was just really dumb when you consider how far away it was etc.


  • #75
    flazio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,250 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    I suspect the shift in power will be something along the lines of Teresa Mays snap election last year. Close but not close enough.


  • #76
    manual_man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,264 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    my prediction: Republicans gain 3 senate seats. Democrats gain 23 house seats


  • #77
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,156 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    So more women and minorities are wanted to by the electorate. That's not a great sign for the GOP who's base isn't that broad or diverse.

    Its not,it will be interesting to see if Trump has made gains outside his usual demographics. One of the Vox guys was suggesting he may make some inroads in the Hispanic base which might be one of the few things to give him hope for 2020.


  • #78
    Agent Smith
    Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 21,504 Mod ✭✭✭✭Agent Smith


    https://www.livenewson.com/american/msnbc.html


    Msnbc Live stream tonight


  • #79
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Preliminary CNN exit poll responses in the Florida and Georgia Governor's races are not overly encouraging for Democrats either, though 50% do say that Stacey Abrams' stance on the issues in Georgia is "about right".

    Responses in Florida do indicate a rather conservative bent to the electorate.

    Gillum in particular would be a bitter loss for the Democrats to take as he has been up in the polls and his opponent De Santis has been playing the (pro-)racism card for all it's worth.


  • #80
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    It's bizarre watching CNN's coverage and there's an ad during the break for MSNBC's election coverage. :D


  • #81
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,670 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?


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  • #82
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,996 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Too early to say yet.

    But if Dems win Trump will have two years to give them hell anyway

    I suppose there will be an opportunity to investigate things though.


  • #83
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,670 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Was looking at declared votes and Republicans at 46
    A yes vote for Trump no? Don't follow US politics


  • #84
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?

    Winning ? The election polls in some states haven't even closed. The republicans control both houses of congress as of now and will until January 2019 when the next congress will sit.


  • #85
    Captain Obvious
    Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the republicans winning?


    It's difficult to predict. Early voting seems to have been record numbers and voter suppression seems to have been rife. I don't think polling outside centres today will be accurate.


  • #86
    Townton
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Townton


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Am I missing something but aren't the Republicans winning?

    Way to early to say. Indiana, for example, less than 5% of the vote and most of those in are from rural areas. The only thing to take from that race is that the Republican challenger to Donnelly is certainly running up the numbers where he needs to in order to offset urban votes. But that's about all you can say still way too early.


  • #87
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Here's an Indiana voting machine.

    I believe this is what's euphemistically called a "technical glitch".

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1059942912312688642


  • #88
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,670 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead


  • #89
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,996 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Better if Republicans win (apart from Dems being able to question), because Trump cannot blame the Dems for anything apart from his own GOP.

    Only two years to go also.


  • #90
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead

    That's not correct.


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  • #91
    Townton
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Townton


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead

    Safe seats. Not news really. It will come down to 50 or so races worth looking at. Thing is in KY6 (which was seen as a benchmark for the so-called "blue wave") and Indiana the Republicans are doing well but very early.


  • #92
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Better if Republicans win (apart from Dems being able to question), because Trump cannot blame the Dems for anything apart from his own GOP.

    Only two years to go also.

    Yeah imagine the state of the union addresses for two years with a democratic speaker of the house ?


  • #93
    KevIRL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,578 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    Sat in a hotel room in Cleveland, Ohio watching the results on the TV and having a few beers. Great to be watching them for once at a respectable time of the evening


  • #94
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead


    I think that includes those senate seats that aren't up for election. Quite misleading actually.



    No senate seats have been declared yet.


  • #95
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Townton wrote: »
    Safe seats. Not news really. It will come down to 50 or so races worth looking at. Thing is in KY6 (which was seen as a benchmark for the so-called "blue wave") and Indiana the Republicans are doing well but very early.

    The dem has gone very slightly ahead in KY6.


  • #96
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,240 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    fritzelly wrote: »
    When I google us election results it gives 66 results declared and Republicans way ahead

    It's meaningless for the most part at the moment. Counts so far are mainly from Republican states.

    It's like if there was an all Ireland election and unionist areas had their counts in first while the rest of the country hadn't even started counting yet. Doesn't mean the unionists were heading for government.


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  • #97
    Captain Obvious
    Registered Users Posts: 4,165 ✭✭✭Captain Obvious


    These are the sites I'm using to keep track

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html


  • #98
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Results in Indiana are still embryonic, but 538 say that in one rural county where about a third of the vote has been counted, Joe Donnelly is running about 1% behind where he was running in 2012, when he beat his Republican opponent 50-44.

    That's reasonably encouraging for him in terms of taking the seat. Still very early days though, obviously.


  • #99
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    CNN are calling that Bernie sanders has won his race. Hardly a hot take there lads.


  • #100
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    CNN are calling that Bernie sanders has won his race. Hardly a hot take there lads.


    I'm shocked! Shocked!! :D


  • #101
    manual_man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,264 ✭✭✭✭manual_man


    SimonTemplar wrote: »
    I'm shocked! Shocked!! :D

    The 1%!

    Of senate seats has been declared for Democrats


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