Commuting weather diary

inisboffin wrote: »

Single trips: 39
Percentage wet (I got wet with water whether icy or liquid, which came from the sky): 62
Percentage dry: 38


Them's me facts - enjoy

So just to be clear: are you saying that you kept a record of each and every one of your trips as this thread progressed, amounting to 39 trips with none left out? And that by chance it turned out there was rainfall during no less than 62% of those trips? Are all these commutes recorded in this thread?

Or is it the case that of 39 trip reports you selected to post in this thread, 24 of them were selected reports of rainfall?

There is a difference...

I'm not trying to be a curmudgeon or whatever, but I would not agree that the wind was incessant for three entire months.

Sure it's windy in Galway, but not constantly for a whole season. Strong cold winds make cycling and walking very unpleasant, but there are many days in all seasons where nasty wind is not a dominant weather feature.

That said, I found the wind this evening to be bitterly cold. Should have worn my scarf.

Mr_A wrote: »

I don't see why the OP has some obligation to use input other than their own when putting together a report. As has been pointed out, the same option is open to everyone else.

gordongekko wrote: »

True but if its only relevant to the people who travel between the ops house,where their kids go to school and their place of work then its not supposed to be in the Galway forum.

I think it finally dawned on me this morning what the (perceived) issue is.

It all hinges on the word "diary".

gordongekko wrote: »

so once again this has nothing to do with Galway and only relevant to your household. ... Its only since you were challenged on it that you have started to see some rain. And do you not commute on days that kids are off school?

inisboffin wrote: »

I think people thought it was something other than it is.

inisboffin wrote: »

Wait, so you're only taking into account your own posts on this thread? Why not just keep a diary at home? I thought you were looking for a representation of everyone's experience.

My intention was that any interested commuter could maintain their own diary in the thread. Obviously I was motivated to do so, or I wouldn't have started it in the first place. Other posters may not be equally motivated or may just be too busy or whatever.

However, a key point is that each diary within the thread must have its own separate and independent existence. The reasons are obvious, or so I would have thought.

My commuting diary began on 18th November 2013 and focuses on the morning school run over 3 km from A to B. Sometimes it involves an extra 4 km school-to-work journey from B to C.

Jo Bloggs started her diary in mid-February and walks 4 km from home in E to work in F, which is a different part of the city altogether from B, leaving home after 9am.

A. N. Other's diary commenced on March 21st, and his commute is 5 km by car from his home in location G to college in H, and the hours vary because of class timetables.

The A-B, E-F and G-H commuting weather diaries cannot be combined into one mega-diary for the simple reason that they are not comparable in terms of location, distance and time of day.

The weather in Galway is changeable.

The 'hypothesis' stated in the OP and subsequent posts is that it is possible to walk or cycle a reasonable distance (say 4-5 km or maybe more) to work or school without being soaked on a regular or frequent basis.

Each diary can be used to test that notion independently, by keeping a daily record of every trip for a reasonable length of time. I don't know what the minimum duration of such a diary should be, but my guess is that you'd need at least a couple of month's worth of daily reports to build up a reliable and realistic picture of the commuting weather experience.

But, crucially, I can't take bits of the E-F and G-H reports and stick them into the A-B diary in order to create a single catch-all "representation of everyone's experience".

Each diary has to be assessed separately once it's finished, with the main objective being to work out the percentage of trips during which rain actually fell, relative to the total number of trips recorded in each diary. Jo Bloggs and A. N. Other will experience whatever the weather was during each of their individual commutes, but neither has a direct bearing on what the weather was like during my A-B trips. So the only way to draw valid and informative conclusions about rainfall and commuting is to compare the frequency of wet commutes in each diary, subject to the proviso that all trips were recorded.

Ideally there would be several diaries on the go, covering most of the day and over a range of distances up to, say, 10 km. That would provide a bigger picture that would be closer to a "representation of everyone's experience".

However, it remains the case that the weather recorded in each diary is representative of the experience of everyone else who does -- or could do -- the same commute. In other words, everyone in location A who cycles, or could potentially cycle, 3 km or so to school in location B around the same time every morning would experience the same weather.

As I've stated previously in this thread, this is where it's possible to make generalisations because individuals are part of communities and the weather affects us all in much the same way over time. When we cycle the A-B route to school in the morning, for example, we are travelling on the same roads and pretty much the same trips as hundreds (perhaps thousands?) of other commuters. We are all experiencing the same weather, because we are travelling at the same time over similar distances to adjacent locations. Where the circumstances are the same the weather for one is the weather for all, regardless of mode of transport, which is what this thread is about.

90th consecutive weather diary report. Last one was Friday 11th April, just before the Easter break.

Usual morning school run, with Senior Infant on own bike. Lovely weather -- no rain. A small amount of fog earlier, clearing to beautiful sunshine. Thermometer says 17%, but it feels a lot warmer.

Usual morning school run by bike. Beautiful warm sunshine. Yesterday I saw car occupants wearing coats, but I forgot to look today.

Usual morning school run. Cool and cloudy, but no rainfall during trip. Recent rainy weather doing wonders for the garden, mind you.

Spotted the sign below in the back window of a car this morning. Prompted a wry chuckle.

Morning school run. Cool and cloudy, but no rain.

Usual morning school run. No rain on outward journey. Caught in light shower on way back. Stationary traffic blocking access to "courtesy crossings".

Morning school run. After delayed departure, Senior Infant started out on own bike. Misjudged the weather entirely, and got caught in nasty shower less than 1 km out. Switched to Plan B. Fair bit of rain during outward leg, but clear on return. Clothes actually dried out. Traffic heavy. Saw two buses stuck among stationary and slow-moving cars.

Usual school run, by bike. Much too wet for Senior Infant to cycle own bike.

Usual school run, Senior Infant on own bike. Very wet weather recently, with temperatures below average. Waited for heavy shower to clear, so ended up leaving much later than usual. No rain during trip. Approx 1.5 km line of slow-moving stop-start traffic on route. Passed one car with sticker in the rear window: "you've just been passed by a girl." Buses stuck in traffic as usual. Got caught in two showers on return leg, so had to take shelter.

I finally got around to analysing the weather-related information accumulated over 100 school days since starting this exercise on 18th November.

I found it to be a useful and informative process, and I hope others do too. I've done my best to ensure that everything has been recorded and reported accurately. If anyone spots any errors or omissions, please let me know. The attached PDF lists all the dates and, where helpful for reference purposes, the post numbers. Constructive criticism welcome.

A few points to note:

1. The 100 days included were, for the purposes of tracking weather experiences, randomly selected. In other words, the weather conditions were those that happened to occur between 8am and 9am approximately on the 100 school days that fell between November 18th and the arbitrary end-point of the diary. I decided on 100 days because (a) it's a reasonable sample size for illustration purposes and (b) it makes percentage calculations a cinch. The time period also included winter and spring weather.

2. The analysis was done on what medical researchers call an "intention to treat" basis. In simple terms, that means that all notable 'real-world' occurrences are accounted for, even if they are not strictly about the effects of weather on commuting. For that reason I have included other factors such as sick days, missing/incomplete records and incidents such as punctures. Additionally, where Senior Infant's mode of travel was not clearly recorded or could not be recalled, it was assumed not to be by bike. This tends to underestimate the actual number of occasions on which Senior Infant cycles, but in the context of this thread such an underestimate is preferable to an overestimate. An important point to bear in mind is that whether Senior Infant cycles or not is a good indicator of weather conditions.

3. The rainfall experience is described in two ways. Firstly, if any rain at all fell around the time of the morning school run, whether outward or return, this was coded as 1. This has the effect of overestimating the impact of rainfall, but for the purposes of this thread that's preferable to an underestimate. However, since rain can be light or heavy, or can be avoided in certain circumstances, there is also a "Got Wet" category to indicate the number of occasions on which rainfall was actually a problem, eg if it caused a soaking. Problematic rainfall was relatively infrequent (and in any case wearing proper waterproof gear makes heavy rain manageable).

Now for the actual numbers. All figures based on 100 records, so N=%.

Days on which school run was done by bike: 93
Mornings on which Senior Infant cycled own bike to school: 76
Morning school runs during which any rain fell: 30
Number of school runs during which rain was a problem: 12
Sick days: 5.

If sick days are excluded, then Senior Infant did the 3 km school run by bike 80% (76/95) of the time between November and May. In my opinion that figure alone strongly supports the original premise of this thread, which is that Galway's level of rainfall ought not to be regarded as a significant deterrent to cycle commuting over distances of 4 km or less, especially for able-bodied adults.