Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Sunday, 1 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal except for a few parts of the southeast which may average 2-3 deg below normal as cold temperatures in all areas at start of the interval persist longer there; most other places will eventually become 2-3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, with most of that coming around Wednesday 4th.
-- Sunshine will probably average a bit above normal but cloud will be persistent in some places so the results will be rather variable.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly to mostly sunny but cold, although there could be some areas of rather persistent low cloud due to the fog not totally dispersing in some valleys. Highs 4 to 7 C. There are also a few very weak showers still present due to the easterly winds over the past day; these may drop small amounts of rain or soft hail in Leinster and east Ulster this morning. Most of that activity will dissipate by afternoon as skies become more generally clear.

TONIGHT will see clear intervals and frost with some fog patches, very cold with lows -2 to -5 C, except a bit milder near Atlantic coasts.

MONDAY milder air will brush up against the west coast and will rather lethargically attempt to push further inland. The colder air is likely to hang on in most of the inland south and east. Some coastal locations will get a slight warming too. Temperatures will be rising to 8-10 C near the west coast, 4-7 C central and east coast, and 2-5 C inland southeast. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times.

TUESDAY will see the milder air making a bit more progress but with very slight wind gradients in the south it may be another day before all of the colder air is scoured out of low-lying areas. The results will be similar to Monday but perhaps several degrees warmer in some places in particular the central and inland northern counties which could benefit from a bit of a wind gradient developing there.

WEDNESDAY will complete the transition to milder air in a stronger southwest wind, and there will be outbreaks of rain across most areas, not expected to be very heavy (3-5 mm). Winds will increase to 50 or 60 km/hr and temperatures will be steady in the 8-11 C range.

THURSDAY will also be overcast and breezy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C.

FRIDAY may see more broken cloud as a slight change in air mass brings in a somewhat drier regime but temperatures will likely remain fairly similar, 7 to 9 C.

The WEEKEND of 7-8 Dec appears likely to become quite unsettled with rain at times on Saturday, rain and strong winds by Sunday, but staying mild until late Sunday night, with temperatures generally 8 to 11 C. Winds could exceed 110 km/hr by Sunday evening near the west coast, veering from southwest to northwest by Monday morning.

MONDAY (9th Dec) is looking like quite a cold day with northerly winds and the risk of mixed wintry showers in northern and eastern counties, but that won't last too long before a slight warming trend sets in with lighter westerly winds by Tuesday. The rest of the week will remain somewhat unsettled and there could be mixed falls of sleet or even snow as well as cold rain at times during this interval. Typical highs will be around 4 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast but it was a patchy and rather high cloud deck that allowed a bit of sunshine at times, and the high was around 2 C. With light winds, it was fairly tolerable and probably better than anything that might include precipitation at this time of year. This was probably the driest November on record around here, certainly among the driest ten per cent anyway.

Tuesday, 3 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values in many areas, with above normal readings likely for several days between Thursday and Sunday balanced by colder than average at either end of the interval. However, western counties may run somewhat above normal on balance and the southeast as much as 1.5 below normal due to the colder start there.
-- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some lingering frost and fog in parts of Leinster and northeast Munster, with the best chance for sunshine in areas a bit further west where patchy mist will dissipate faster. The slow warming trend will continue with Atlantic counties generally around 10 or 11 C and from there eastward, a degree or two higher than Monday's values, so reaching about 5 to 7 C at least in the inland southeast. Winds will continue rather light but may pick up to moderate south-southwest where it has turned milder.

TONIGHT will see patchy mist and fog returning and it will continue somewhat cold in a few parts of the east, but milder air will make inroads and rain may follow onto the west coast. Lows -1 to +3 C east to about 5 to 8 C west.

WEDNESDAY will become breezy with increasing cloud east, overcast west with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely there. Highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will see stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain but somewhat cooler at about 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will turn sharply colder as winds veer to the northwest, temperatures will slide down to around 5 C and there may be wintry falls on higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations.

TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 7 to 9 C, but this storm will be weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic.

The outlook calls for that colder air to dominate for about a week although with a few episodes where the Atlantic fights back with fast-moving disturbances. This could set up some of those battleground scenarios mentioned in our earlier long-range forecast. Too early to speculate on details but within the week of 10th to 16th there could be some situations with snow in northern areas and rain in the south. At other times it will be generally cold but more settled throughout, but with some wintry streamers (ocean-fed lines of showers) possible in a few areas. The temperatures will likely be moderately rather than severely cold, in the 3 to 7 C range daytimes and frosts at night. If I had to guess at the Christmas holiday weather, in the pattern upcoming the most likely outcome would be strong winds and either rain or mixed forms of precipitation in an active weather situation that could even become stormy. So I will be tracking that potential as we get closer, but maps already out to the 19th are pointing in that direction.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a bit of light snow mixed with freezing drizzle, no real change to the Sunday accumulation on the ground of about 15-20 cms. Temperatures were around -1 C. Meanwhile, another storm over the northeast U.S. has dumped very heavy snow in a few places from near Albany NY to Worcester MA and into southern VT and NH. Reports of over 50 cms have come in, but along the coast in the big cities, just a slick mixture of wet snow, freezing rain or sleet, and a coating of 1 to 2 cms here and there. The low responsible for this is south of Cape Cod moving northeast towards New Brunswick later tonight, placing Maine in the firing line today for heavy snow.

Thursday, 5 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values. Colder intervals will not last long enough to make a full impact on daily extremes, so while it may seem colder at times, by the numbers it will average milder.
-- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east. The heaviest falls will be today, Saturday and Tuesday.
-- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible in western counties, closer to 5 mm further east. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

TONIGHT ... Winds will ease somewhat becoming westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, and there will be partial clearing with just a few showers. Continued rather mild with lows around 5 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and lows near 5 C with highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain and temperatures will drop steadily from morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop by afternoon and evening in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, 70 to 120 km/hr with some minor damage possible in those areas. Further east, the winds will also increase but not to quite such intense levels, 60 to 100 km/hr can be expected.

MONDAY after it has turned sharply colder overnight, temperatures will be quite cold at first in the range of 3 to 5 C and there may be wintry showers over higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations. This cold shot will last only a few hours as the next Atlantic frontal disturbance pushes it away to the east by later Monday morning to mid-day. This will cause temperatures to become steady near 8 C and then rise a bit further overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back from north-northwest to west-southwest in that time, and will remain strong and gusty throughout although easing somewhat from peak gust speeds of 110 km/hr early in the day.

TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 8 to 11 C, but this storm will be somewhat weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic. Even so, it will produce some briefly stronger wind gusts near 90 km/hr before the wind turns northerly mid-week.

The OUTLOOK calls for colder weather for a day or two with readings of 2 to 7 C mid-week, largely dry during that colder spell with isolated mixed wintry showers, but renewed battles between that colder air and still very active Atlantic jet stream driven disturbances will dominate mid-month and temperatures will be back up around 10 C by the end of the week with more rain and wind. There will likely be several more similar oscillations between air masses as the upper level winds remain very strong from a westerly direction, allowing milder and colder shots to take turns lasting a day or two. This still looks like it is building towards a possible major disturbance and with the highest energy peak around 25-26 December, it is likely to come around then (unless the upper level winds relax by then which could allow the storm track to re-set further south).

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and foggy as milder air oozed into the region, changing light snow to drizzle and causing a partial thaw of ground cover snow which has settled now to about 8 cms. Temperatures rose gradually to about 3 C.

Saturday, 7 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values. This would now be about 8-9 C for daytime highs and 2-3 C for overnight lows.
-- Rainfall will average about normal in the west and north, to 50% of normal in the south and east.
-- Sunshine will average close to normal, or about 2 hours a day on average.
-- Strong winds will be a frequent element also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out dry for most with a few breaks in overcast skies, then it will become rather windy by afternoon with rain developing across western counties, spreading to the east by this evening. Rather mild with highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with 10-20 mm rainfalls and southwest winds 80-110 km/hr. Continued mild at first then temperatures will drop sharply towards morning reaching 2-5 C. Rain will turn to squally showers during this colder phase.

TOMORROW (Sunday 8th) -- Alert for strong winds from Storm "Atiyah" -- while most of the day will be quite windy (westerly 70-110 km/hr), blustery and cold, with passing squally showers (mixed with snow on higher terrain), the evening hours will become stormy with even stronger winds especially in two areas (a) Atlantic coastal counties and (b) places inland south and east with local wind enhancement from nearby hills. Very strong northwest winds are expected, 80 to 130 km/hr, and these could peak even higher in a few areas with those enhanced conditions, for example, to the south of the Galtees in Waterford. The very strong winds will begin to moderate towards Monday morning after howling most of the night. Some places may be sheltered from the full force of these winds by high terrain (for example, parts of the Wicklow coast and possibly some parts of Dublin). Temperatures on Sunday will remain rather cold in the 4 to 7 C range for most, and could rise slightly during the strong winds before falling back again.

MONDAY will start out with a few remnant gusts of the departing windstorm but it will quickly moderate to become a relatively pleasant and dry day between that storm and another one due in on Monday night. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C in moderate westerly breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will become very windy again with rain (15-25 mm potential) and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C. Winds will be south to southwest 70 to 120 km/hr. Then Tuesday will be rather similar to Sunday in seeing a falling temperature trend in strong westerly winds, and squally showers, but this time there won't be an interval of stronger winds as the following day remains similar in moderate to strong westerly winds, blustery showers and cool for WEDNESDAY with highs near 6 or 7 C.

The outlook calls for somewhat milder temperatures to return by THURSDAY into the first part of the weekend of 14th-15th, then colder for a few days before much milder towards the end of the second week of our outlook period. So the roller coaster ride will continue with rather frequent strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild (for here) with a high near 5 C. The slush factor continues to grow as snow cover slowly melts.

UPDATE _ Sun 8 Dec 2:30 p.m.
________________________________

Latest guidance shows some ominous features that readers should track over the next few hours as storm "Atiyah" winds up for a direct hit on the north later.

The first wave of stronger winds (in an already very windy situation) will sweep through Kerry and parts of west Cork around 4-6 p.m. A meso-scale low is forming in the strong westerly flow about 150 miles west of Clare and will produce the winds that have prompted the official red alert for Kerry, and local gusts could exceed 140 km/hr as this feature moves across. Further east there may be remnant strong gusts but this feature will be tracking more southeast than east after hitting west Munster.

A squall line with very active thunderstorms, likely containing damaging wind gusts and hail, has formed in Donegal Bay and appears to be tracking east-southeast so that counties between south Donegal, Leitrim and the northwest parts of Leinster may be in line for some of its impacts in the next few hours. Keep a close watch on radar for this feature possibly approaching your location if you are in that zone. It could even hold together as far as the east coast by this evening.

Also of concern, the main centre of the storm which is south of Iceland now will be tracking rapidly southeast to make a direct hit on Ulster this evening. Very strong northwest to north winds are likely to hit the coastal areas around 7 to 9 p.m. and then move rapidly through north-central counties towards the capital region by about midnight. This phase looks quite powerful now and you may be getting red alerts along some of that track (also in the UK warning system affecting Northern Ireland). If not, expect some local red alert conditions anyway and certainly the higher end of orange alert conditions very likely to verify all the way around the north coast from about Portrush west into Donegal and possibly some parts of Connacht as well. That phase of the storm is still a good distance from shore and strongest winds will not arrive until after sunset, well into the late evening hours for most in its path.

Further updates may be needed.

Tuesday, 10 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 1.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the west, and 50-75 per cent of normal in the east.
-- Sunshine will average near or slightly above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and mild for a few hours before turning gradually colder around mid-day, temperatures starting out 12-14 C will slide down towards 5-7 C by late afternoon. Some light rain this morning will be followed by a few sunny intervals and further showers developing in a westerly flow, when winds veer from southwest 70-110 km/hr to westerly 60-100 km/hr by afternoon. A few of these showers could produce hail and thunder.

TONIGHT will be windy and quite cold with passing sleety showers, a growing risk of wintry precipitation on higher ground, as temperatures slowly fall to about 2-3 C. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr will add considerable chill.

WEDNESDAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, temperatures in the range of 4 to 7 C but sometimes dropping back after squally showers pass. Some snow or sleet is likely on higher ground. Winds will be southwest to west 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY will also be rather cold with sleety intervals of rain mixed at times with wet snow on higher ground. Temperatures will remain in the 4 to 7 C range but could rise slightly towards evening.

FRIDAY will be overcast with further sleety rainfall or wet snow (mostly on higher terrain) with lows 1-3 C and highs about 7 C.

The weekend outlook is rather unsettled and continued rather cold, although temperatures may edge back up a degree or two, with some rain each day. Next week looks a little milder in general as more of a southwest backing to southerly flow develops, and temperatures creep back up towards 9 or 10 C. It continues to look rather volatile towards the holiday period although details on that will continue to be somewhat variable from day to day until we get a clearer signal which I think will be mainly about the timing of a powerful disturbance likely sometime around the 26th.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few brighter intervals and cool with highs near 2 C. There is a powerful windstorm and local blizzard conditions heading for Iceland from the northeast, as low pressure associated with the weekend storm circles around and takes aim at the north coast of Iceland later today and tonight. Winds of up to 140 km/hr are predicted. The capital Reykjavik is not quite at ground zero for this storm but will have significant wind and snowfall also.

Thursday, 12 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values, relatively cold in the west for a change, as the source of most air masses will be the far northern Atlantic by a roundabout route across the central Atlantic.
-- Rainfall will be near normal in most regions but could be somewhat below normal in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will be slightly above normal in parts of the east, to near normal further west.


FORECASTS

TODAY some heavy rain will fall in the next few hours across Leinster, with temperatures rising slightly for a time to around 7 C, then it will turn colder again by afternoon with blustery west winds, frequent mixed wintry showers feeding in from the Atlantic with only slightly reduced coverage by the time they reach the east coast. A complete mixture of precipitation types can be expected, somewhat sorted by elevation, but capable of changing to sleet or snow at sea level, depending on how fast the snow falls (heavier showers will reach the ground before the material can fully melt). Even snow pellets (people often call them styrofoam balls in conversation) might be observed as this mixed brew develops. Temperatures will tend to fall off each time a heavier shower moves through, and will vary from 3 to 6 C. Some snow cover might develop on higher ground. Winds southwest at least 40 to 70 km/hr and sometimes stronger. Longer intervals of sleety rain or wet snow on higher terrain may develop towards evening.

TONIGHT will have intervals of sleet or cold rain, and moderate westerly winds, quite cold at about 1 or 2 C even in the west. Full moon has just occurred (0536h today) so tonight you may catch a few glimpses of the full moon again between scudding low clouds.

FRIDAY will turn very slightly milder again with showers becoming heavy at times, some quite squally showers developing, and now a reduced threat of any stronger winds in the south, although moderate westerlies will be a theme all day at 60 to 90 km/hr. Highs will range from 5 to 8 C in the north and central counties, to about 9 or 10 C near the south coast.

SATURDAY will be windy and cold with passing showers of sleet, hail or wet snow with highs 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with more isolated showers and highs once again around 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY will probably continue in a similar fashion with cloudy skies and sleety rain or wet snow at times, not warming from the 4 to 7 C range.

Later next week, milder air will arrive, probably a weak first stage by Tuesday (rain and 7-9 C) then much milder by mid-week with southerly winds and temperatures above 10 C by Wednesday and possibly several more days after that. Eventually there could be quite a strong windstorm, even before the Christmas period as I outlined, according to the European model this morning a low will explode to 950 mbs near the south coast around the end of next week tracking northward. This sort of model guidance has sometimes failed miserably in the past so I am just mentioning it as an alert to the possibility of a significant storm near the end of next week (roughly the 20th). This does not alter the earlier suggestion that the holiday period could be very unsettled, windy and mild with rain, and that theme predominates on the longer-duration GFS model which now goes as far as the 28th. Verbatim, the weather on Christmas Day would be heavy rain, strong westerly winds and temperatures 9-12 C. Here again, model guidance at that time range (currently twelve days) is only an indicator of a trend, if similar output keeps appearing we might place more faith in it, but it does match my theoretical forecast scenario (which is a combination that I would actually prefer to avoid on the jinx factor basis).

My local weather on Wednesday featured light snow which turned to light rain lower down as we made our way through nearby lower elevations on a day trip. Back up to the home town this evening and there's about 5 cms of new snow up here with more falling moderately now, and possibly up to 15 cms by this afternoon. Temperatures were about +2 C with the light rainfall and are around -2 C here.

The OUTLOOK for the following week is for a gradual warming trend in more of a south to southwest flow, and rain will become frequent by mid-week. Temperatures will probably recover to normal or above normal values 9 to 12 C. There is still a definitely unsettled look to charts for the holiday period with the latest twist being deep low pressure moving around from south to east of Ireland. If that system were to drift further north on later charts it would be quite stormy in Ireland around the holiday (right now it looks wet with moderate northeast winds for Ireland and stormy in France and southern Britain).

Saturday, 14 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 December 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, the first half of the period more like 3 deg below, then later on a little above normal.
-- Rainfall will average generally a bit below normal in most areas, although could reach or exceed normal values in parts of west Munster.
-- Sunshine will probably manage to exceed normal slightly, although this is the cloudiest time of the year with an average of only 1.5 hours bright sunshine a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and quite cold with passing showers of rain or hail at low elevations, sleet, hail or wet snow at higher elevations. Winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs near 5 or 6 C for most, 2 to 4 C on higher ground.

TONIGHT will be overcast and cold with sleet or wet snow showers, lows around -1 C. Some patchy black ice conditions may form on some rural untreated roads.

SUNDAY will also be cold, but not quite as windy, with the same mixture of partly wintry showers by elevation. Highs will be similar to today, in the range of 4 to 7 C.

MONDAY may turn out a little brighter and more settled as a weak area of high pressure briefly replaces the westerly flow. There will still be some wintry showers around, mainly near coasts and over hills. Morning lows -3 to -1 C will bring some sharp frosts, and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 5 C.

TUESDAY will see increasing cloud after a rather clear start with frost. Lows -3 to -1 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Rain is likely by evening in the south and west.

WEDNESDAY will become rather windy again (southeast to south 50 to 80 km/hr at times) with intervals of rain, possibly about 15 mm in some parts. Highs will slowly reach values between 8 and 10 C perhaps by the evening.

The further outlook is generally milder although it could drop back a degree or two at first before really mild air starts to arrive in the run up to the holiday week. Strong winds and rain seem more or less inevitable at times around Christmas to New Years, and temperatures could be quite mild also, 10 to 12 C at times.

My local weather on Friday was overcast but generally dry with a few wet snowflakes in the morning, no further accumulation, so a good day to clean up from several days of snowfall. The high was around 0 to +1 C.

Monday, 16 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 December, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, often colder than that but briefly milder mid-week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south and west, to 50% of normal in the north and east.
-- Sunshine will average 25% above normal values, or close to 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be bright and cold with passing wintry showers, more frequent in the north, west and southwest, once again more likely to produce snow on higher elevations above 200 metres elevation, with longer intervals of sunshine than most recent days in the east and south, also diminished winds except for moderate southwesterlies in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear and frosty conditions, quite cold with lows -4 to -1 C, widespread icy conditions by dawn, and still some lingering wintry showers near Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, still rather cold, highs 5 to 8 C. There may be some outbreaks of rain or sleet later in the day near the west coast mainly.

WEDNESDAY will become windy with intervals of rain, heavy at times, in strong southeast winds 50-80 km/hr. This could start out as sleet over higher parts of west Ulster and north Connacht. Temperatures will start out frosty in the east, near 3 C west, and then will rise to the 8-10 C range. It will stay fairly mild well into the overnight hours as rain tapers to drizzle, with widespread fog likely.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with a few lingering showers, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C. The strong winds of the Wednesday night rain will diminish by morning and most of the day will have light to moderate southerlies.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cold with mixed wintry showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

The following WEEKEND (21st-22nd) will be unsettled with rain and some risk of sleet or wet snow inland on hills, as temperatures remain a bit below average around 7 C at best.

The outlook for the days leading up to Christmas is also somewhat unsettled, but model guidance begins to diverge, I find the European model's timing more credible with rain likely by later Christmas Day into St Stephen's Day and moderate to strong southwest winds developing. There is a more unified signal for further mild and unsettled conditions towards the end of the month and New Years. Any chance of snow near Christmas is probably confined to some northern hills on the 24th.

My local weather on Sunday remained overcast with foggy low cloud conditions over the surrounding hills, and temperatures steady near 0 to +1 C.

Wednesday, 18 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average about one degree below normal to near average in some parts of the north.
-- Rainfall will average near normal or slightly above, but a large part of that will fall today, so after that happens, the rest of the interval will be rather dry by comparison (50% of normal rainfall expected for the six days after today).
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become very wet and windy in most regions, especially near the south and west coasts. Rainfalls in most areas will be 15-25 mm but could reach 30-50 mm in parts of the inland south and 20-35 mm in the west. Winds will increase steadily to reach peak values of 60 to 100 km/hr from the southeast, except 80-120 km/hr locally near the west coast this evening. High temperatures will reach 12 C in the south and west, 10 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will continue windy for the first part of the night, as rain ends with a windshift to southerly, after which the wind speeds will be reduced considerably towards morning. Peak winds will occur around 9 p.m. in the Galway Bay area and 10-11 p.m. in Mayo, as the storm moves past (local gusts to 120 km/hr from the south-southeast). Rain will gradually end and while there could be brief clearing, low cloud and then fog may develop towards morning as temperatures peak around midnight (at 12 C) then fall back towards 5 C.

THURSDAY will see widespread fog and mist, light rain and low cloud, with some partial clearing in parts of the west around mid-day, but intervals of rain will continue and intensify somewhat in Leinster by afternoon and evening. Winds will stay rather moderate from the south. Highs 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, and somewhat colder again, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will bring some rain or sleet on hills, and cold, raw southeast winds at times, with temperatures steady in the range of 4 to 6 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with light rain at times, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

The outlook for the holiday period is still somewhat undecided with rather different guidance available from the various models. Some want to bring several more active low pressure areas through the country around the 24th and 26th with frequent outbreaks of rain and at least moderately strong winds. Others have more of a settled look with high pressure becoming dominant. I think the unsettled versions have more chance of being right, and would say the weather over the holidays is likely to be at least damp, if not wet, and temperatures at least average if not a little above (7 to 10 C range).

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and rather cold (-3 C) with a bit of light snow at times, no real accumulation on top of what has fallen in the past ten days or so.

Friday, 20 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 December

-- Temperatures will be near average values for this time of year (highs near 8 C and lows near 2 C).
-- Rainfall will be somewhat below average at 15-20 mm total in most places.
-- Sunshine will be at least near the usual amount for late December, about 2 hours a day, or as high as 3 hours in some parts away from the cloudier south.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some sunny intervals developing after fog and mist dissipate this morning. Any further rain will be confined to a few isolated showers. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud with outbreaks of light rain in the west and south, remaining mostly dry in the east and north. Lows may reach slight frost levels early in the night before the cloud arrives, but temperatures will then edge up to around 3 C.

SATURDAY will bring outbreaks of light rain in the south mostly, with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers further north. Highs will be near 8 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, and moderate westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows will be close to -1 C and highs around 7 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with somewhat diminished westerly winds, and isolated outbreaks of light rain. Lows will be near -1 C and highs around 7 C.

From Tuesday onward, the guidance remains rather scattered from one source to another, and therefore not very reliable. There seems to be a fairly good chance that a weak low will bring a sleety cold rain at times on the 24th, with some risk of wintry precipitation developing on the northern edge as it moves across the midlands. Temperatures in that scenario would be around 5 C at best. However, some other guidance promises a more settled day with a bit of sunshine. For Christmas Day (Wed 25th) it appears more likely to be settled as the next disturbance might not arrive until later that evening or overnight. So that would imply perhaps a rather frosty start to the day, hazy sunshine through mist or patchy low cloud, and increasing southeast winds later with a slow rise in temperatures towards evening when it might be near 7 C in many areas and 10 C on the south and west coasts. The most likely outcome for St Stephens Day (Thurs 26th) would be milder (9-12 C) with rain and southerly winds. Some guidance shows this becoming rather stormy with strong wind gusts, but other models keep this disturbance weak. There is even a slight chance that the whole pattern will slow down by about one day and all of these events will arrive a day later, a sign that some models are picking up on a blocking tendency over Europe.

The consensus from 27th to New Years is for further rain and southerly winds perhaps leading up to stormy conditions at some point. Although that could be followed by colder weather, the preferred option is for the stormy interval to be replaced by Atlantic high pressure and near average temperatures in the early part of January.

I am hoping this model confusion is resolved later today or by Saturday morning so I can be a bit more confident about the outlook, but with rather weak signals available, the models are "all over the place" with their solutions at the moment.

My local weather on Thursday was somewhat milder than recent days with light snow briefly changing to drizzle before accumulating snow resumed this afternoon, and a further 5 cms have fallen. Well, this is a ski resort town so lots of snow is expected here, and from climate records I think we are running at about 50% of normal with 15-20 cms on the ground. We were warned to expect "big snow drifts" by somebody who was using hand signals rather than numbers to estimate the amounts in recent winters. The hands were going up towards the chest when I looked away.

Sunday, 22 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 December, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal. This is because the end of this interval will turn very mild.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south and west, to 50% of normal in the east and north.
-- Sunshine will average near or slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become quite breezy and even windy in some parts of the north. Westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr will become widespread by afternoon, 60 to 100 km/hr in exposed coastal parts of the north. A few passing showers will be mingled with sunny breaks, with highs near the seasonal average of 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT will see some clearing in parts of the north but it will remain rather overcast in the south where a little light rain is possible. Lows -1 (north inland) to +4 C (south coast).

MONDAY will have a few intervals of light rain in the south, and variable cloud with showers in the north. It will become less windy than today. Highs 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY will bring some light rain but there is some uncertainty about how far north that might spread with some guidance saying midlands to east coast in line for some, other sources confining the rain to the south coast. Either way it will be cloudy with highs near 7 C. The risk of any snow or sleet depends on the storm track, a south coast grazer probably won't bring any low-elevation sleet, but a low tracking inland could bring hill snow or sleet on its trailing edge by Tuesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) -- I am nearly convinced now that it will turn quite windy and wet later in the day after a frosty start in some eastern and northern inland locations. There was guidance earlier on Saturday showing low pressure on a track through the south by Christmas night and the 26th, but that has largely shifted back to my old idea of a rather strong low in the Atlantic moving north past the west coast. If so, that would imply increasing cloud after a bright but chilly start to the day, followed by strong southeast winds and heavy rainfalls by later in the day with temperatures rising steadily from morning lows of -2 to +3 C, to evening highs of 7 to 12 C (east to west) with bands of rain spreading north. That rain would continue most of the night and it could get very windy by the early morning of the 26th in Galway, Mayo and parts of Sligo into Donegal. Until we can be sure this storm is really going to hit, we will avoid specific numbers for wind speeds and rainfall amounts but it could be almost like that recent storm for the south and west.

THURSDAY (St Stephen's Day) -- The most likely outcome is windy and mild, with the rain tapering off to showers and some partial clearing later as winds gradually subside. Temperatures will be in the 8 to 11 C range.

The OUTLOOK then calls for continued rather mild weather to New Years. Although it could be breezy at times, there are some signs that high pressure will edge in from the south and slacken the gradient so that might also reintroduce frosts to the forecast although I think days would recover to mild mid-day readings in all but a few fog-prone locations. The west and north would likely see readings around 10 C, it could be a bit colder than that in the east and inland south to southeast.

My local weather has continued rather mild with light rain, and this has depleted snow cover a bit at our elevation and a lot down in the Columbia valley where most of it has disappeared. Highs were around 5 C up here and 10 C down there. The skiers are far from happy with the conditions. This milder air mass is spreading east and will be dominating most of the central then eastern U.S. for the Christmas period. It could be well into the 50s (F) or low 60s in the major east coast cities, and 7-10 C in places like Toronto, over the holiday period. There are signs of a gradual turn to colder weather there in the new year and a large storm on the east coast towards the second week of the outlook.

Tuesday, 24 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal, thanks to the second half of the week becoming very mild. It will be quite close to the seasonal average until Thursday.
-- Rainfall will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal although it appears that some days will be fully overcast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some outbreaks of showery light rain from a weak disturbance tracking through the south. Much of the country will be dry but some areas of showers will affect the midlands and south coast until mid-day when they will begin to break up. There could also be some light rain in parts of north coast Ulster. Best chance for sunshine would likely be around Donegal Bay to Cavan. Highs will reach about 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will see some clearing although patchy low cloud will persist and it will probably stay cloudy near the west coast and parts of the south coast. Where it does clear, a slight frost will develop with widespread fog, hopefully Santa has his fog lights installed and working. Lows -2 C to
+4 C.

WEDNESDAY (Christmas Day) will start out rather cold and frosty in some inland parts of Leinster and Ulster, with morning lows of about -2 C. It will be cloudy further south and west with temperatures around 1 to 4 C on Christmas morning. The day will slowly get milder in all regions, as southeast winds develop, and highs will reach about 7 or 8 degrees in Leinster and Ulster, 9 to 11 C in Munster and Connacht. Rain will arrive there by evening. The rain will spread across the country fairly quickly over the late overnight hours to Thursday morning.

THURSDAY (26th) is likely to become quite windy with 10-15 mm rainfalls across most areas, easing during the morning except in parts of Ulster, and southeast to south winds at least 50 to 80 km/hr, and there remains some chance of stronger winds near the west and south coasts. These winds will veer slowly to the southwesterly direction before easing by afternoon. Highs of 9 to 12 C for most, possibly a bit cooler in the north
(7-9 C).

FRIDAY 27th to MONDAY 30th will bring a mild spell that may bring temperatures up to near record values of 12 or 13 degrees in some places. Winds will be moderate south to southwest, and some patchy light rain or drizzle is likely in northern and some central counties, but overall accumulations will be slight. It will be mostly cloudy with just a few brighter intervals, but possibly mild enough for out-of-season activities.

The outlook then calls for rather windy weather from a westerly direction towards New Years Eve and New Years Day, with a lot of guidance now calling for quite strong winds to develop as a deep low passes by well to the north around the 2nd of January. Temperatures are likely to come back down to a more average level around 7 or 8 C.

My local weather continued foggy up at our elevation, while lower down the visibility was a bit better under the low cloud ceiling. Highs were around 2 to 4 C and some melting snow changing to drizzle made it rather unpleasant to be outside very long.

I hope to post something for your Christmas morning forecast but if either you or I miss that occasion, all the best for the holidays and enjoy, we are not going anywhere this year and will have a quiet celebration at home.

Thanks very much and I hope you are all enjoying the tranquil weather, it will be a somewhat different story by tonight though ...

Wednesday, 25 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 Dec 2019

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal with record highs possible around the weekend.
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal, much of it will fall on the 26th.
-- Sunshine will average a little above normal too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out bright and calm with slowly increasing temperatures that will peak around 7 C in the east and closer to 10 C in the south and west. Any fog this morning should gradually dissipate. Some patchy frost has developed and some rural roads could be quite slippery this morning.

TONIGHT will see rain spreading rapidly across the country with increasing southeasterly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, possibly a bit stronger near south coast. About 10-15 mm rain will fall eventually. Temperatures may drop back slightly for the evening hours in Leinster and Ulster but will continue to rise slowly elsewhere and this will happen in the east and north later in the night, with lowest values there around 3-4 C, otherwise 7 to 10 C.

TOMORROW will be windy and wet to start out, with a slow drying trend more evident in the west and southwest where the sun could break through at times by afternoon. It will turn quite mild with highs around 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY to MONDAY (30th) will bring a very mild spell with moderate south to southwest winds, patchy light rain more likely near the west coast and into west Ulster, and highs each day between 11 and 14 C.

Around New Years Eve (Tuesday 31st) there will be a shift in the winds to westerly and it may turn a few degrees cooler, but January 1-2 are also looking quite mild as a distant low tracks north from the Azores towards Iceland, almost a subtropical looking feature that could keep temperatures well above normal for a few more days into the new year.

The first ten days of the new year are looking relatively mild now, and breezy to windy much of the time, in a fairly constant west-southwest flow. Highs will probably be close to 8 C most of that period. If there's going to be any real winter weather at all, it might be delayed well into the second half of the winter. In previous model runs there were hints of stormy conditions by the 6th to 10th but more recent guidance seems to be backing away from that much intensity. It could return as a theme however.

My local weather on Tuesday was seasonal, overcast with light snow drifting down, no real accumulation after 5 cm of heavy wet snow had fallen in the early morning. Temperatures were close to the freezing point all through that.

Will be keeping an eye on this disturbance approaching, it does not seem to have fully captured all the available energy from the peak I mentioned but it's right on time (the new moon occurs early on the 26th). There may be some "yellow" warnings but so far it does not look like a named storm or orange level warnings.

Friday, 27 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS will return after New Years.

Since we're all in the holiday mode, I will just update the forecasts a little more informally these next few days.

The mild spell will continue with even higher temperatures likely each day to Monday 30th. Some rain is going to be brushing past the northwest coastal counties at times today and Saturday, but it won't appear in a lot of other places, despite a fair amount of cloud. Temperatures will be as high as 13 or 14 C in some places each day, and above 10 just about everywhere. This mild spell may be quite breezy near the Atlantic coasts but further east only moderately breezy from the south. It won't get a lot cooler at night either, thanks to cloudy skies and the ongoing southerly breezes. There is a slight tendency showing up by Sunday night for clearing to create dense fog under calmer conditions there, and somewhat colder overnight lows in the inland southeast for Monday morning, possibly in the 2 to 5 C range. Monday will however return to near 10-12 C mild mid-day temperatures in most places. It may be starting to turn a bit colder in Ulster during the afternoon on Monday.

Then a weak disturbance will drift past the south coast and spread bands of light rain or drizzle into the coastal counties, but it may remain dry further north. The mild spell will be interrupted by a somewhat cooler day on Tuesday 31st but there may be more sunshine and some coastal areas may not turn that much cooler at all, would expect highs of 7 to 9 C on average and near 10 C along the west coast and perhaps the south coast as well.

A transient high pressure cell will drift over the country around New Years Eve and this may allow some cooling to take place with frost or fog possible in a few places, but milder air will still be very close (near the west coast and above any temperature inversions that develop). It could mix down to the surface again by the afternoon of New Year's Day and then a strengthening southerly wind will mix the air further and return milder temperatures during the next few days, with some potential for strong gusts from the southwest to west as weak fronts pass.

My local weather on the 26th was overcast and rather cold, around -3 C. We had a mostly dry day with the odd snowflake floating down, nothing measurable, and nearly calm most of the day.

Sunday, 29 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY will continue very mild with somewhat less breezy conditions developing, perhaps a few brighter intervals although cloud will tend to dominate in most areas, and highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be relatively calm and with cloud cover the lows will probably stay above 5 C in many places.

MONDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sunshine with isolated bands of light rain mainly near the west and later south coasts. Winds will remain light but swing around to a northeast direction. Highs 9 to 11 C, but 7 or 8 C in parts of Ulster.

TUESDAY could have a colder start due to some clearing overnight, lows -1 to +3 C. The day will have some sunny breaks with areas of low cloud and highs 6 to 9 C. By New Years Eve (around midnight) some eastern areas may be rather chilly due to clear skies and a slight frost developing, western counties are more likely to be overcast with a breeze from the south keeping temperatures around 7 C.

WEDNESDAY (New Year's Day) will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder again with moderate south to southwest winds developing, and highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY is looking rather windy with rain at times, highs 8 to 10 C, and winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr.

Once that disturbance passes on Thursday night, there will be one more session of mild and relatively tranquil weather before a more unsettled pattern replaces the high pressure influence and exposes Ireland to the threat of strong winds and occasional rain. Temperatures will remain rather mild throughout, daily highs of 7 to 10 C looks to be about the range we can expect in early to mid January.

My local weather changes so little I have to concentrate to recall what it was doing, the same as each of the previous many days, overcast with the cloud ceiling just above the town on top of the local hills, and highs near -1 C. There is now enough of a snow pack to keep everyone happy but not to be disruptive.

Tuesday, 31 December, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


Today is the last day you won't instantly be able to say what decade it is.

For this time of year, the weather has been exceptionally tranquil and it looks to remain that way well into New Years Day before getting a little more unsettled. Today, there are patches of cloud associated with that very weak disturbance which has been drifting east well to the south of the coastal counties. These appear to be almost entirely devoid of moisture but some patchy drizzle remains possible. Clearing skies will gradually work their way further south from Ulster and north Connacht where a slight frost developed overnight. The air mass remains relatively mild for late December and highs will reach 7 to 10 C with light east to northeast breezes dying out by mid-day.

By this evening, a southerly flow will have started, and this will keep temperatures from falling very much except in a few places well to the east in north Leinster and Ulster, where once again a slight frost could develop before more cloud spreads in and temperatures begin to edge upwards again. Around midnight it should be around 4 to 7 C in many places with light southerly breezes and mostly cloudy skies.

Tomorrow, New Year's Day, cloud will be increasing and so will southerly winds, but rain will hold off in most areas until the evening, with milder highs again of 9 to 12 C.

Thursday is looking unsettled with rain (10-15 mm likely) and stronger southwest winds at times, reaching about 60 to 90 km/hr. The wind and rain will ease by the evening hours with a rather weak frontal trough pushing through, and dropping temperatures by only a degree or two for Friday, in a brisk westerly flow of 50 to 80 km/hr. Skies will become partly cloudy. There's more mild, dry weather to follow before this pattern tightens up somewhat by about the 9th or 10th of January with stronger southwest winds by then, but highs throughout that first full week of the new year should remain 8 to 10 C.

My local weather remained in the realm of instant forgetability (if that's even a word) with (you guessed it) low overcast, no wind, and a few snowflakes managing to add up to about 0.5 cm, enough to cover up what needed to be hidden (there's a lot of dog walkers in this town). And it was somewhere between -2 and zero C. However, we do have 10-20 cm worth of snow on the way thanks to a more active Pacific frontal system.

Happy new year to all, I will update briefly around 0700h and get back to the more formal forecasts by Thursday.

Thursday, 2 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Jan, 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal (highs around 10 C, lows around 4 C).
-- Rainfall will be near normal values (about 25-35 mm in total).
-- Sunshine will be near average also (about 1.5-2.0 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with intervals of rain, briefly heavy, already having started on the west coast and moving steadily east this morning to reach the east coast before mid-day. Winds south to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr with some higher gusts on the west coast. Highs 10 to 12 C and about 10-15 mm rainfalls.

TONIGHT will bring some gusty westerly winds and colder temperatures after midnight with partial clearing, lows about 4 C with winds west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and rather cold with highs 6 to 8 C. Winds west-northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be somewhat less breezy and a touch milder, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle confined mainly to northern coastal areas, lows around 2 C and highs around 9 C. It will become windy by evening with rain sweeping into western areas.

MONDAY will be very windy at times with a band of squally rain showers, temperatures peaking around 12 C in the morning followed by somewhat colder and strong westerly winds, gusts to 110 km/hr, temperatures falling off to about 7 C.

The outlook for next week is very unsettled with frequent intervals of rain, strong southwest winds sometimes reaching gale force almost on a daily basis, and temperatures moving up and down more by timing of fronts than by the time of day, but on average around 8 C. With the details likely to change, at the present time the indications are that stronger winds would peak late Tuesday, again late Wednesday, then into the early to mid-day hours of Friday.

There is not much change in this westerly Atlantic dominated pattern as far as the charts go into mid-January, although sometimes a colder theme where snow could fall on higher ground in some of the showers.

My local weather on New Year's Day was quite mild with a few glimpses of blue sky but odd cloud formations trapped in valleys off to our south and west. The high was about 6 C and the recent heavy snow has slumped down considerably with a lot of slush developing during the day. Passing showers were trying to drop rain rather than snow but not much of that, perhaps a trace at most. Sleet has been falling for the past hour or two.

Saturday, 4 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1.5 to 2.5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be 75% of normal to near normal values.
-- Sunshine will be close to the January average of 1.5 to 2 hours a day, to about 25% above average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals, only moderate southwest breezes, and highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and breezy with lows 2 to 5 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle confined mainly to northern coastal areas, and highs around 9 C. It will become windy by evening with rain sweeping into western areas.

MONDAY will be very windy at times with a band of squally rain showers moving through from early morning to mid-day, temperatures peaking around 12 C in the morning followed by somewhat colder temperatures, and strong westerly winds, gusts to 110 km/hr, temperatures falling off to about 7 C.

TUESDAY will become windy again with very mild temperatures in a strong southwest flow reaching 80 to 110 km/hr by later in the day. Some rain at times, with highs around 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be less windy, partly cloudy at first then overcast and still rather mild, highs 10 to 12 C, with rain resuming by afternoon and becoming heavier at times. About 10 to 20 mm rainfalls can be expected.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be relatively mild also with southwest breezes and some rain at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

There is currently no strong signal for any change in the pattern for another week following.

My local weather on Friday brought some further snow (5-10 cm) mixed with drizzle and then generally dry but with the low overcast continuing, highs near -1 C.

Monday, 6 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1.5 to 2.5 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will be 75% of normal to near normal values.
-- Sunshine will be close to the January average of 1.5 to 2 hours a day, to about 25% above average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be very windy at times with a band of squally rain showers moving across the country, arriving soon on the east coast. Temperatures will peak around 10-12 C in the morning followed by somewhat colder temperatures, and strong westerly winds, with clearing for a time, then variable cloud and more showers possible by later afternoon again. South to southwest winds with gusts to 110 km/hr this morning, then westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr easing gradually through the afternoon, as temperatures fall off to about 7 C.

TONIGHT will be breezy and temperatures will likely begin to rise after a slight fall this evening, to reach 8 to 10 C later in the night. Some light rain at times in the north but essentially dry further south.

TUESDAY will become windy again with very mild temperatures in a strong southwest flow reaching 80 to 110 km/hr by later in the day. Some rain at times, with highs around 12 to 15 C. Once again turning a bit colder by afternoon especially in Connacht (with partial clearing and temperatures falling to 6 C).

WEDNESDAY will be less windy, partly cloudy at first with morning lows 2 to 5 C, then overcast and still rather mild, highs 10 to 12 C, except near 7 C in parts of Ulster, with rain resuming by afternoon in west Munster and becoming heavier at times. About 10 to 20 mm rainfalls can be expected by Thursday morning.

THURSDAY may bring some intervals of strong southwest winds along the south coast in the early morning hours as rain spreads through the southern half of the country. There is some uncertainty on the track of this disturbance, if it were to stay further south then strong winds would not reach the south coast and rain would only spread a shorter distance inland. The north in any case will likely see just intervals of light rain with a weaker frontal system, then clearing. All of these features will be followed by a windshift to northwesterly by mid-day, and partial clearing. Highs near 10 C in the south, 5 to 8 C further north.

FRIDAY will be relatively mild with southwest breezes and some rain at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... It will stay mild for several more days into next weekend (11th-12th) with highs near 12 C. Some guidance is indicating a very stormy pattern to follow, at the very least it will get quite windy and there will be frequent rain. I mentioned yesterday that any details on timing or intensity of these mid-month storms may take a few days to gain much clarity but the later guidance is starting to converge on strong south to southwest winds by about Monday 13th or Tuesday 14th.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with snow, about 10 cms has fallen since mid-day, with highs of about -3 deg C. The pattern for most of North America in the next week or two will be just a bit milder than normal in many areas with the Pacific rather active and the Gulf of Mexico not providing much energy although adding a few frontal waves in the southeast from time to time. The net result will be a stormy outcome for the far eastern parts of Canada and the western Atlantic with very intense storms expected south of Greenland.

This looks to me like a pattern that could hold for a time then collapse into a blocking episode allowing a much colder period to develop, whether it's before or after the end of January it may lead to a colder February.

Tuesday, 7 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Jan 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near normal.
-- Sunshine will also be close to average for mid-January.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and mild with south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, sometimes reaching 100 km/hr, with occasional rain and highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring partial clearing and lows 3 to 6 C as winds diminish to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will have a bright start with increasing cloud from the southwest later in the day, highs 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY morning, rain will spread into most areas, mixing with sleet on hills in northern areas. Temperatures will be steady 8-10 C in the south, and 3-5 C in the north. Some strong wind gusts from the southwest could arrive on the south coast briefly during the early morning hours.

THURSDAY, once the rain or sleet clear eastward by mid-day, turning somewhat cooler in the south, and staying cool further north as winds shift to northwest. Temperatures will be near 5 C by afternoon in most parts of the country.

FRIDAY will become breezy to windy again with milder temperatures returning, and some light rain. Morning lows around 1 to 3 C then highs 9 to 12 C.

The weekend is likely to remain mild and unsettled with moderate southwest winds. By Monday there could be even stronger southwest winds and intervals of heavier rain. Temperatures during the weekend and Monday will be around 9 to 12 C.

The further outlook calls for somewhat cooler weather, still rather unsettled, but some precipitation may become wintry especially on higher terrain later next week. However, no major cold spell is foreseen and it could return to milder temperatures again later in the month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with snow, about 20-25 cm fell before lunch time and just a light additional amount since then, with highs around zero deg C.

Thursday, 9 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 January 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average slightly below normal values (75 to 100 per cent).
-- Sunshine will average slightly above normal values (100 to 125 per cent).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy but may see brighter spells towards mid-day and afternoon, in generally light northerly breezes. While colder than recently, temperatures will be close to average at 7 or 8 C by afternoon.

TONIGHT will feature some clear and frosty spells before midnight then increasing cloud and a rising westerly wind will bring in milder air from the Atlantic, followed by occasional light rain. Lows -2 to +3 C at first, temperatures rising to 4 to 7 C later.

FRIDAY will become windy and mild with occasional rain, south to southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will start out mild with further rain in the morning, then a cold front will move across the country with potential for a squall line to develop, and colder temperatures by afternoon. Temperatures will drop from 10 to about 5 C, and there could be 10-15 mm rainfalls in some eastern counties. Winds will become westerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be a bright but rather cold day with passing mixed wintry showers on some higher terrain, mostly rain or hail showers at lower elevations. Lows near 2 C and highs 5 to 7 C.

MONDAY will be windy with rain, heavy at times, and some potential for hill snow or sleet in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Despite a southerly wind direction, it may not feel very mild at 7 or 8 C, lower temperatures possible in parts of the north. Winds will be gusty and in the range of 60 to 100 km/hr.

TUESDAY another disturbance will approach and could bring even stronger winds at times, with more rain or showers. Highs will be 7 to 9 C.

The outlook continues very unsettled for the rest of the week, frequently quite windy and wet, temperatures generally around 7 C.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with occasional light snow, and it turned a bit colder from a mild start around 3 C to afternoon readings of -3 C.

Saturday, 11 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 January, 2020

-- Temperatures will average close to normal values, or slightly above (although starting out quite a bit milder).
-- Rainfall will average close to normal values to about 25% above average in some parts.
-- Sunshine will average fairly close to January normals of 1.5 to 2 hours a day.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out quite mild with several lines of showers likely to form in advance of a cold front that might produce squally showers with some hail and thunder. Eventually all of these will clear through eastern counties and there may be some afternoon sunny breaks. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr may briefly gust to about 100 km/hr with the frontal passage then will diminish somewhat to 40 to 70 km/hr westerly this afternoon. Temperatures near 12 C until the front arrives, then dropping rather steadily to reach 5-6 C later on.

TONIGHT will turn rather cold with moderate southwest winds and passing sleety showers, leading to some wet snow on higher slopes. Lows 1 to 3 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and quite cool with passing mixed wintry showers on higher terrain, mostly rain showers at lower elevations with some hail possible. There will also be a few brighter intervals. Highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will become very windy at times with rain rather heavy too, 15-25 mm at least with potential for 30-40 mm in a few spots. Despite strong southerly winds, it will only warm up slightly to 8 or 9 C and it will feel rather cold and raw as a result of the winds and rain. Some sleet could fall on hills in the north. Winds southerly 70 to 110 km/hr with the risk of damaging gusts to 130 km/hr in coastal Connacht. Offshore in Donegal Bay there will be force 11 or force 12 winds as a deep low tracks northeast towards the Hebrides. It looks like this will be just far enough off the coast to spare most places on land from very severe conditions but we are tracking this closely.

TUESDAY will be overcast with intervals of rain, and some guidance suggests a cold rain with wet snow on higher terrain by evening as a secondary low forms and tracks past the Wexford coast, with winds briefly turning more to the east. Temperatures will be in the 5-7 C range but could fall to 1-3 C if the rain mixes with any snow.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and a bit milder again with occasional rain, highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY another storm will develop and move towards western Ireland. Details are hard to pin down given a range in the guidance and the situation being almost a week away and after two other active weather events, but consider this a watch situation that could go either way closer to the time (either a non-event or a fairly significant storm seem equally possible). Temperatures are somewhat easier to estimate, in the range of 5 to 8 C.

The further outlook is basically more of the same except perhaps not as unsettled with somewhat more influence from higher pressure off to the south. It should stay relatively mild for January.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow amounting to about 10-12 cms by mid-day when it eased up to a few flurries. Highs were near -1 C. We are expecting another snowfall of 15-20 cms on Sunday then into the deep freeze as a severely cold air mass descends on us from the far north (it is currently near -50 C in the Yukon).

Monday, 13 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


(Trends will return later in the week)

ALERT for strong winds by late morning hours and mid-day south coast and east coast, more persistent on west coast with a second peak of intense wind gusts late afternoon and evening. Peak gusts likely to hit 120 km/hr briefly, with risk of thunderstorms and hail. The second wave for mainly the northwestern counties could reach 130 km/hr there. This will bring less impact to most other regions however.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become very windy with a band of squally rain showers, possibly including thunder and hail, moving into the west through the morning hours, and reaching the midlands to mid-south coast around noon, and Leinster around 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. For several hours leading up to passage of this front, southerly gales will reach 70 to 110 km/hr and there could be gusts to around 120 km/hr near the time of frontal passage. Once this goes through, winds in most places will diminish to more moderate speeds of 60 to 80 km/hr. Skies will clear briefly then further showers are likely to develop. ... On the west coast, a second interval of very strong winds will occur by mid to late afternoon when the core circulation of storm "Brendan" passes well off the coast. Southwest winds of 80 to 130 km/hr may develop then in coastal Connacht, 70 to 120 km/hr in a few parts of west Munster. This will not have as much impact elsewhere in the country. High temperatures today will reach about 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT the very strong winds in the northwest and north will continue to around midnight and then slowly moderate to 50-80 km/hr. Elsewhere, it should remain moderately windy for the first part of the night then become less windy after midnight. There will be a few passing sleety showers and it will turn colder with lows 1 to 3 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some wintry on hills. By afternoon, an area of sleet or rain will move through the southeast, some snow could fall on higher slopes then. Highs 5 to 7 C but temperatures may fall back to about 1 to 3 C during the mixed wintry precipitation. Winds moderate at times will be somewhat lighter during the rain or sleet in the southeast.

WEDNESDAY will see southwest winds increasing again to 50-80 km/hr, with slightly milder temperatures near 9 C and occasional light rain.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times (south to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr) with rain at times, morning lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and cooler with highs 5 to 8 C.

The outlook is more settled with higher pressure building up near Ireland and while not wintry cold, the temperature regime will be cooler than this unsettled period. Highs will be generally in the 5 to 8 C range. The settled period may be fairly persistent but one or two days could see some stronger winds and a bit of rain, before a return to the more settled weather.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light snow. About 5-8 cms fell before colder air arrived recently. Temperatures were near -2 C but are now dropping fast, and a rather gusty northerly wind is adding chill to readings that are close to -10 C already.

(Timing today's storm in various regions)

west Munster ... expect the main round of strong winds and squally rain 10 to 11:30 a.m.

central to east Munster ... strong winds and squally rain around 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.

south and central Leinster ... strong winds and squally rain noon to 3 p.m.

midlands ... strong winds and squally rain 10:30 a.m. to 1 p.m.

west and northwest counties ... rain and strong winds most of the day with perhaps a break for a time during the early afternoon. Peaks in wind gusts around 10-11 a.m. and again around 4 to 8 p.m.

Wednesday, 15 January, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 January 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg below normal in the southeast, to near normal on the west coast.
-- Rainfall will average 25% of normal values; most of that will occur tomorrow.
-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, or around 3 hours a day on average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy, with sunny intervals in the east and south, more frequent showers in west and north, some with thunder and hail. Amounts rather slight, 1-3 mm. Highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT will be clear for the evening hours, then clouds will increase. Lows could reach -1 or -2 C with slight frost before the cloud and a strengthening southerly wind clear frost away with rising temperatures later on.

THURSDAY will become rather windy, southerly gales near the south coast 70-110 km/hr, and 50-80 km/hr elsewhere, with intervals of rain (5-15 mm expected) and milder highs near 10 C. This disturbance will weaken later in the day, and the winds will ease, skies will become partly cloudy with more moderate southwest to west winds.

FRIDAY will feature some early morning sleet or wet snow in some places, before a clearing trend. The day will become partly cloudy and rather cold. Lows -1 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be dry but rather cold, with partly cloudy skies and some longer sunny intervals by afternoon. Light winds generally. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be a calm and rather cold day in most places, but it could feel milder near the west coast. Morning lows will be around -3 C with sharp frosts. Afternoon readings will vary from 4 to 8 C except near 10 C on some parts of the south and west coasts.

NEXT WEEK will continue to be settled and it could turn milder at times, but we'll be dealing with one of those rather slow-moving persistent highs that can shift a small amount and cut off one wind flow replacing it with a different type, all very slack gradients with light winds can be expected generally. Highs may reach 10 C on some days, and be held to 5-7 C on others, depending on whether the wind direction is westerly (mild) or northeast (colder). This settled interval will probably begin to yield to a more mobile pattern again by the following weekend (25th-26th). It may be a rather abrupt change back to windy and wet weather around then.

My local weather, some will be jealous, most will be relieved not to be here -- very cold, even by our standards, daytime readings of -15 to -18 C, with some clearing tonight likely to fall to the mid -20s. Another snowstorm is approaching the west coast but looks like it will only bring us a small dusting (we have 45 cm on the ground already which is enough for me).