Dublin Bay South By-Election

KevRossi wrote: »

Yeah. Deirdre Conroy is running for FF.

I'm actually looking forward to the televised debates. Pity Chu isn't running, I'd like to see her up against Justin Barrett for the laughs.

Is there normally televised debates for by-elections? Seems weirdly D4-centric, surely if the by-election was Roscommon or somewhere there wouldn't be the same coverage...

Larbre34 wrote: »

His is a child size however.

I actually did try searching for a child size Nazi hat but nothing. I'm probably on some CIA hot list now.

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

I actually did try searching for a child size Nazi hat but nothing. I'm probably on some CIA hot list now.

Google "worst kids Halloween costumes" and a few pictures of a child dressed as Barrett come up

blackwhite wrote: »

Does Norma Burke actually do anything - or is she just a professional twitter commenter?

seems so, just self righteousness



thought her accusing a particular person as being the person who threw the milkshakes at Leo without proof was ill-judged.

Annasopra wrote: »

Michael McGrath

Neo Nazi Homophobe
https://sites.google.com/site/guydecervens/michaelmcgrathonkukluxklanwebsite
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/26034
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2055097616
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/12/10/anything-good-in-the-kilkenny-journal/

Could end up splitting the Nazi vote in Dublin Bay and hurt Barrett's chance of getting 2% of the vote

blackwhite wrote: »

Does Norma Burke actually do anything - or is she just a professional twitter commenter?

Spends what seems most of her waking hours acting the contrarian on twitter.

Annasopra wrote: »

Michael McGrath

Neo Nazi Homophobe
https://sites.google.com/site/guydecervens/michaelmcgrathonkukluxklanwebsite
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/26034
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2055097616
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/12/10/anything-good-in-the-kilkenny-journal/

I ain't clicking on any of those links, but I'm assuming he's the Kilkenny Journal lad? Deeply unpleasant individual.

Will Harris be resigning seeing as his candidate is "Sinister"?

So Geoghegan he did a poll for Lucinda Creighton in 2016 https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1402927054346203136

Why do you need to do a poll when the Independent/Millward Brown does one for you?

2016 FG has Creighton's Dáil seat firmly in its sights https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fg-has-creightons-dail-seat-firmly-in-its-sights-34467153.html

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1404766490063167489

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

There are no opinion polls, AFAIK, but Paddy Power have updated their odds on the likely winner. Geoghegan now available at even odds.

Geoghegan: 1/1 (from 8/13)
Boylan: 6/4 (shortening, from 7/2)
Bacik: 9/2 (widening, from 5/2)
Byrne: 33/1 (widening, from 25/1)

I can't understand the perception of support for Boylan, but presumably this is based on betting activity, so is an opinion poll of sorts. Perhaps she will do well in transfers, but the next competitor (Bacik) is likely to transfer to FG. Seems like Geoghegan has it in the bag.

Betting activity for sure a major factor.

Also excellent polls for SF recently and obviously punters looking at Geoghegan and understandably been hugely unimpressed and not wanting to put money on him when he was much shorter odds.

I do think though if he gets much bigger price wise then the canny punters will get involved, yes he is useless but he should still be solid fav for this.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I can't understand the perception of support for Boylan, but presumably this is based on betting activity, so is an opinion poll of sorts. Perhaps she will do well in transfers, but the next competitor (Bacik) is likely to transfer to FG. Seems like Geoghegan has it in the bag.

It's probably a combination of betting activity but also those 2 national polls showing SF with a clear lead during the week.

As for Boylan, she's one of the more appropriate candidates that they could run here. She's well educated, attractive, good on twitter and most importantly, doesn't have the whiff of cordite off of her that some of their other well known members do. Put it this way, she'd do a lot better in DBS then David Cullinane would.

As for the Labour transfers, it's tricky to know where they will go. We don't really have any recent examples. In the 2020 election, in most constituencies the SF candidate had already been elected at the time of the Labour candidates elimination. Then in the 2019 local elections in Dublin most wards elected Labour councilors (so their transfers never happened).

My hunch is that the Green, Labour and Soc Dem transfers might split evenly between Geoghegan and Boylan and that will probably be good enough to get Geoghegan elected since he'll likely top the first preferences and get most of Conroy's transfers.

I don't think its accurate to say Labour aren't a left-wing party. A lot of their party platform policies are still very much left-wing. But it is accurate to say they're no longer a working class party. Look at the demographic breakdown of the most recent Irish Times poll from this week:



It really shows how Labour and the Greens both get their support predominantly from the well off. So its not a huge surprise that the votes of both parties are very transfer friendly to FG.

Blut2 wrote: »

I don't think its accurate to say Labour aren't a left-wing party. A lot of their party platform policies are still very much left-wing. But it is accurate to say they're no longer a working class party. Look at the demographic breakdown of the most recent Irish Times poll from this week:



It really shows how Labour and the Greens both get their support predominantly from the well off. So its not a huge surprise that the votes of both parties are very transfer friendly to FG.

Well what it actually shows is that labour are pretty even across all the groups except farmers. This was always the case where Labour were the alternative to FF/FG vote in the cities but couldnt scratch the rural areas. Certainly in my personal experience they were always left and urban but not huge in the working class council estates.
They have certainly lost a fair whack of the youth vote to SF though

1) that's a parody twitter account
2) Tubridy is a constituent, who they meet on the doorsteps is random and besides
3) Tubridy is not an RTÉ employee, he's a contractor, he can do more or less whatever he likes short of broadcasting for an RTÉ competitor. And besides besides,
4) Tubridy is a member of one of the oldest Fianna Fáil dynasties in history.

Tubridys first cousin is a current sitting td in the constituency. Spinning this as evidence of RTÉ being anti sf actually demeans any valid argument of that existing

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought he lived in Monkstown? I've seen him on foot a few times around Monkstown and Dun Laoghaire.


I'd bet that the same code applies to contractors as employees, that they can't be active politically.

Not any more.

Would you call that being politically active?

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Well in DBS in 2020, only the Green candidate, Eamon Ryan, had been elected. Humphrey's (Labour) elimination elected SF, FG and FF

3,916 of Labour votes transferred as follows:
SF: 24.5%
FG (Murphy): 21.3%
FF: 25%
FG (O'Connell): 29.2%

The dynamics are all different, less than 1.5 years later, but I still think that trend will be roughly maintained.

So 50% of Labour votes transferred to the FG candidates, in a nationwide disaster for FG. I don't have other data to hand, but this seems to be an ongoing phenomenon, and really pulls the rug from under any idea that Labour is a left-wing party. Local party organisation, eg councillors like Dermot Lacey, are almost obsessively anti-SF.

I can see Labour transferring well to FG again, and to the greens, but the latter are only in with a small chance it seems.

That's an interesting post.

I think their is a relatively lazy section of the public who assume all left wing transfers go to left and right right etc.

However I could find people on my phone contact list who would swear FG is left /right and Labour left/right! Its nothing like the Republicans v Dems over here.

Their is plenty of people who would call themselves left who would loath SF while I have seen some of the harshest criticism of the greens come from SF supporters who I think coined the term "FG on bicycles" .

Well this thread is taking a pretty embarrassing turn.

expectationlost wrote: »

now Dolores Cahill says she's running in DBS, how selfish is Eoghan Murphy to create this opportunity for these people to get coverage, if he didn't want to be a TD he should not have run in 2019.

So DBS will get 5 Far right candidates. Gonna be a joke when they split the fascist vote between them.

Larbre34 wrote: »

Not any more.

Would you call that being politically active?

When did he move? I've seen him several times on early morning walks around DO in the past three months.

I certainly wouldn't call it being politically neutral.