Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen · 11-01-2019 8:45pm

Gonzo wrote: »

could we see a repeat of March 2013?

I hope not... I'd rather forget that pathetic, atrocious month.

Muckka · 11-01-2019 8:45pm

Gonzo wrote: »

really looking forward to hopefully a very cold February, however it is a bit concerning that March and possibly April could also be quite wintry at times, hinting at a very cold start to Spring, could we see a repeat of March 2013?

it's beginning to look like we are really going to pay for the past 2 and a half months of very mild conditions. The next 4 to 5 days could be the last time to see temps around 10 or 11C for some time to come.

Oh I can't wait, crispy morning afternoons and evenings....

mrsnrub2.0 · 11-01-2019 9:07pm

Gonzo wrote: »

really looking forward to hopefully a very cold February, however it is a bit concerning that March and possibly April could also be quite wintry at times, hinting at a very cold start to Spring, could we see a repeat of March 2013?

it's beginning to look like we are really going to pay for the past 2 and a half months of very mild conditions. The next 4 to 5 days could be the last time to see temps around 10 or 11C for some time to come.

Winter now includes March and April.

The last typical Spring I can recall is 2011.

Reckless Abandonment · 11-01-2019 9:07pm

Muckka wrote: »

Oh I can't wait, crispy morning afternoons and evenings....

I do love crisp weather. But to be honest by March I'm done with snow and cold. Only want to feel the warmth coming back.

sryanbruen · 11-01-2019 9:10pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I do love crisp weather. But to be honest by March I'm done with snow and cold. Only want to feel the warmth coming back.

I'm fine with cold in March, especially with severe frost overnight, once it's sunny like in 2010. Damp and dreary like March 2013 aka depressing, no thanks.

Artane2002 · 11-01-2019 9:11pm

I'd take a March 2018 repeat any day. Yes I know we put up with lots of wet weather but I couldn't complain about that because of what we got throughout the month. No thanks to March 2013 though. I know most people will disagree with this but I think it would be fun if we got around 1-3cm of snow in April!

YanSno · 11-01-2019 9:15pm

Winter 2009 was a very long on and off cold and we even had wintry weather on March 28th.

Gonzo · 11-01-2019 9:31pm

March 2013 was a waste of good cold, we had plenty of overnight snow showers throughout the month with several cm's of snow most mornings, but the sun would power through it and nothing but green gardens and fields left by midday.

You need a proper sustained fall of heavy snow in March combined with a deep depth of cold for it to stick around more than a day, similar to last year's Storm Emma or the Northern Ireland snow of March 2013. Random snow showers make very little impact in March.

That's why I generally look forward to a movement towards spring like conditions in March.

rooney30 · 11-01-2019 9:33pm

Christ , lads were reaching for the Prozac in here yesterday such was lack of cold on the horizon . Today there is talk of blizzards as far south as Madrid . What gives ?

Monkeynut · 11-01-2019 9:34pm

rooney30 wrote: »

Christ , lads were reaching for the Prozac in here yesterday such was lack of cold on the horizon . Today there is talk of blizzards as far south as Madrid . What gives ?

the charts!!!! :eek:

Donegal Storm · 11-01-2019 9:53pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

the charts!!!! :eek:

Charts are mostly showing slack westerlies with the occasional north westerly for the coming week, i.e. bog standard January weather. Still can't make much sense all the optimism and excitement here every day recently

Gonzo · 11-01-2019 9:54pm

the mild conditions ending now even earlier than I expected, colder conditions taking over from as early as next Tuesday with temperatures struggling in the mid single digits from next Wednesday onward. Could be some wintry precipitation on high ground at times next week.

BBC automated forecasts have snow for Dublin on Tuesday 22 January.

Defaulter1831 · 11-01-2019 9:56pm

Between Christmas and New Years 1995 we had a very decent cold spell. The coldest temperature in 14 years, back to 1981, was recorded in Clones, -11C.

Here's a clip from the 6 O'Clock News on 27 December.

Defaulter1831 · 11-01-2019 10:13pm

On the above cold spell Braemer in Scotland went to below -27C. Equalling the coldest ever recorded.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/galleries/worlds-hottest-and-coldest-places/braemar/

irishrover99 · 11-01-2019 10:19pm

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Between Christmas and New Years 1995 we had a very decent cold spell. The coldest temperature in 14 years, back to 1981, was recorded in Clones, -11C.

Here's a clip from the 6 O'Clock News on 27 December.

I walked from the harp nightclub on Saint Stephens night that year to the Yellow house pub in rathfarnham and then waited outside for some people to show up and then we were supposedly onto a house party.
Back then you couldn’t get a taxi on any busy night in town, never mind around Xmas.
We waited for a half hour and then left.
It’s still the coldest night I can ever remember been out in.
We went back to my shed instead to drink and had the heaters on full blast for hours warning up.
I can even remember the next days news about how cold it was.
But not a bit of snow fell.

Defaulter1831 · 11-01-2019 10:22pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

I walked from the harp nightclub on Saint Stephens night that year to the Yellow house pub in rathfarnham and then awaited outside for some people to show up and then we were supposedly onto a house party.
Back then you couldn’t get a taxi on any busy night in town, never mind around Xmas.
We waited for a half hour and then left.
It’s still the coldest night I can ever remember been out in.
We went back to my shed instead to drink and had the heaters on full blast for hours warning up.
I can even remember the next days news about how cold it was.
But not a bit of snow fell.

That was the funny thing. A bit of snow up north but the temperatures were very cold outside Ulster despite lack of snow cover.

Donegal Storm · 11-01-2019 10:35pm

Had plenty of snow right on the coast in NW Donegal that week, more so than 2010 or any other year I can remember other than maybe 2000. Good times, best week of the year to get a good dumping of snow

amor3 · 11-01-2019 10:50pm

I had my daughter 15 weeks early, last year on storm Emma day! My husband just about made it in! I was in hospital from 4 days before she was born so missed the whole snow event, just seems so surreal to me. I was reading and getting pics but can't imagine the extent of it all! Watching here with great interest now!

Still hasn't put me off snow!! Bring it on!!

nacho libre · 11-01-2019 11:39pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I hope not... I'd rather forget that pathetic, atrocious month.

It was a wonderful month for me. What i am getting from that glosea depiction is, milder interludes, but with Ireland and England possibly in battleground territory alot. It could well be a winter of two halves;)

nacho libre · 11-01-2019 11:47pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'd take a March 2018 repeat any day. Yes I know we put up with lots of wet weather but I couldn't complain about that because of what we got throughout the month. No thanks to March 2013 though. I know most people will disagree with this but I think it would be fun if we got around 1-3cm of snow in April!

One thing last year events will hopefully have helped put to bed is that you can't get decent cold or snow after mid February. The events you mentioned in March were surreal. Temperatures in double digits one day, then barely making it above freezing the next day. It was absolutely incredible to witness. Also the snow hammering down. People were laughing at me on the 16th, when i said we would have snow and very cold weather on the 17th!

Cork Boy 53 · 11-01-2019 11:53pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'd take a March 2018 repeat any day. Yes I know we put up with lots of wet weather but I couldn't complain about that because of what we got throughout the month. No thanks to March 2013 though. I know most people will disagree with this but I think it would be fun if we got around 1-3cm of snow in April!

Would you ever get off the stage there bud? You would like to have 1-3 cm of snow in April? I don `t want snow in March let alone April. The cold March and April of 2018 was more than enough for me so don`t want any repeat during those months this year.

nacho libre · 12-01-2019 12:17am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I know most people will disagree with this but I think it would be fun if we got around 1-3cm of snow in April!

I will take snow at anytime too. I remember in 1994 we had snow during the last week of April.

mickger844posts · 12-01-2019 12:34am

Two contrasting mindsets for me tonight after looking at the latest models.
Firstly without a SSW event would i be getting excited by any model output i'm seeing tonight?? Answer is a big fat no. Colder than of late but diluted and never delivering the goods.
Secondly i'm factoring in the SSW event and thinking the models are not picking up the signals and output is unreliable.
My conclusions are anything is possible. Whats likely is an end to the Anticyclonic dominance of late and a more mobile outlook. That will be most welcomed.

Defaulter1831 · 12-01-2019 12:38am

nacho libre wrote: »

I will take snow at anytime too. I remember in 1994 we had snow during the last week of April.

Mid May here. A Friday, 14th I think. Lay on the ground too (high ground).

Andrew00 · 12-01-2019 12:44am

Bring on da snow

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2019 1:03am

mickger844posts wrote: »

Two contrasting mindsets for me tonight after looking at the latest models.
Firstly without a SSW event would i be getting excited by any model output i'm seeing tonight?? Answer is a big fat no. Colder than of late but diluted and never delivering the goods.
Secondly i'm factoring in the SSW event and thinking the models are not picking up the signals and output is unreliable.
My conclusions are anything is possible. Whats likely is an end to the Anticyclonic dominance of late and a more mobile outlook. That will be most welcomed.

Give me variety any day over the endless dirty high being experienced now for weeks. I think having lived most my life near the Atlantic I kinda need the wind and weather systems coming in off it at times, hard to explain but it just all fits together better that way ( no I am not on the sauce

).

Gonzo · 12-01-2019 1:15am

tonights GFS is a definite downgrade on earlier, between the 18th and 23rd of January. We still get some cold, but appears to be nothing more than a cold zonal Atlantic cold front where winds back into the north for a short time, but the systems keep moving north-west to south-east. Looks cold rain/sleety at best with perhaps snow on high ground.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I still reckon it will be final days of January/February before the blocking really gets going as is shown in the very long range models.

sicknotexi · 12-01-2019 2:18am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Charts are mostly showing slack westerlies with the occasional north westerly for the coming week, i.e. bog standard January weather. Still can't make much sense all the optimism and excitement here every day recently

Think the final third of January into February is where the real potential lies. Nobody is expecting snow within a week but the LRF is for a cold possibly even very cold spell.

No harm in being excited by that prospect, even if it doesn't come to fruition at least we get digital snow.

Donegal Storm · 12-01-2019 2:35am

Yeah but that's ages away and people have been building things up all week already, I've read posts describing 'best runs they've ever seen', 'huge potential', 'comparable to 2010' etc. when there's nothing more than boring westerlies (& brief NW'erlies) shown...

Not trying to be a downer or anything, I'm just genuinely confused reading through this thread then comparing it to the model runs

gabeeg · 12-01-2019 2:56am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah but that's ages away and people have been building things up all week already, I've read posts describing 'best runs they've ever seen', 'huge potential', 'comparable to 2010' etc. when there's nothing more than boring westerlies (& brief NW'erlies) shown...

Not trying to be a downer or anything, I'm just genuinely confused reading through this thread then comparing it to the model runs

I think you must be talking solely about the "reliable" and ignoring everything else.

Frankly, it's very tiring.

sdanseo · 12-01-2019 3:32am

Gonzo wrote: »

tonights GFS is a definite downgrade on earlier, between the 18th and 23rd of January. We still get some cold, but appears to be nothing more than a cold zonal Atlantic cold front where winds back into the north for a short time, but the systems keep moving north-west to south-east. Looks cold rain/sleety at best with perhaps snow on high ground.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I still reckon it will be final days of January/February before the blocking really gets going as is shown in the very long range models.

The parallel on the other hand shows brief snow potential this coming Wednesday into Thursday. -9 uppers.

gfs-1-132.png?18

Graces7 · 12-01-2019 7:57am

esposito wrote: »

This angers me greatly. Virgin media turning into the daily express and other cheap tabloids? Pathetic! Way too early to be talking about this. Any sniff they get of snow and they go to town on it.

No more than boards does!

Graces7 · 12-01-2019 8:04am

Wild night out here; snug and cosy in here. Wind howl and rain rhythm

sideswipe · 12-01-2019 12:00pm

^^ Boo, never get anything good from the west at my location on the east coast.

Captain Snow · 12-01-2019 12:01pm

This mornings run.

Snow into the Northwest by Wednesday. Or heavy wintery showers. That low could slip a little further south?

A brief mild spell or cool spell again up to Saturday before the onslaught of something better...….

More heavy Snow showers coming in off the Atlantic in a very cold north west flow. Beefy snow showers.

A cold theme throughout the rest of the run.

sryanbruen · 12-01-2019 12:03pm

You posted the same chart three times in that post :P

Captain Snow · 12-01-2019 12:05pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

You posted the same chart three times in that post :P

Was out last night on the beer...…….:D

amadangomor · 12-01-2019 12:43pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

The direction of flow is north to south generally for the foreseeable with lows in the mix,some of which will slide,ergo engaging with the cold air feed,battle ground Ireland, what's not to like?

Glosea amongst others is showing the direction of flow from the northeast a lot of the time going forward, which is logical and ties in with all the anomaly charts,what's not to like about that?

There's not going to be uninterrupted cold,there will be milder interludes as lows interact a bit further north
Land sakes you'd want some moderation
Mother nature's looking out for you
You don't want the entire human race killed off
Lastly,will you enjoy the ride For heaven's sake

Patronising much?

Snow Garden · 12-01-2019 12:45pm

I am beginning to believe.

Graces7 · 12-01-2019 1:35pm

For once I am totally and fully equipped and prepared for whatever weather hits.. Will need turf soon but my neighbour the ferryman will sell me more....with a spare gas bottle, and abundant food... although being coastal we get little snow they told me that in 2010 they had to shovel the snow out of the ferry...

This time I WILL build a snowman! No camera sadly,,

Gonzo · 12-01-2019 2:03pm

looks fairly messy from next Wednesday with cold and mild days. Wednesday and into Thursday looks cold, with perhaps a mix of rain, sleet and possibly wet snow in places.

Friday looks mild again with mild Atlantic south westerly's taking over briefly followed by more cold conditions from the north-west later on Saturday.

Ireland looks very knife-edge for the following 6 to 7 days, on the very edge of the colder plunges which would deliver wintry showers for much of the time and snow during the coldest of the plunges, Mild Atlantic air never looks too far away, just off our west and south-west coasts for much of the run. This is of course in FI and all it would take is a little shift and Ireland will either be comfortably within the colder zones or left out in the milder sectors.

There doesn't appear to be much blocking up to 26th of January, I would be much more confident if this blocking was showing up.

ZX7R · 12-01-2019 3:11pm

16th January last year it was an interesting ride home that night

Mortelaro · 12-01-2019 5:56pm

Just by way of a commentary
I've said several times this month that FI is FI regardless of the strat
Its still FI
The last week of January starts Jan 24 which by my reckoning is 12 days away
February even further
I think it was joanna Donnelly what said a day 10 ECM chart ain't worth the crayons it's wrote with ,(hi Joanna

)
I agree
You can imagine what I think of GFS FI,that hasn't changed either
Day 12 is deep FI
I've also given the opinion at the opening of the month that I'd expect increasingly colder solutions to start arriving in models and they are in response to the strat effect and other things
All that is happening
We've a decent handle on the next 5 days and a quarter handle on the 2 or 3 after that
The only thing we can say beyond that is the likelihood of cold to very cold at times is very high and speculate
AT Times
There is a point worth noting on sliding Atlantic lows
Their warm side clashing with colder air is likely to give very heavy rain somewhere
At some point that could be snow somewhere
You just don't know yet but do you know what,my Spidey senses are telling me the white stuff won't be shy in the coming 30 days plus when 'gravity' is dropping that air down from the north
Which point from the north ?
Well northwest certainly initially but there's every chance depending on the synoptic of the week that north,northeast and east will arrive too if you get me,so buckle down?

refusetolose · 12-01-2019 6:31pm

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/1084137955902570497

pad199207 · 12-01-2019 6:34pm

Still very much on the fence of any significant cold for Ireland this month. Trend is ofcourse for a cooler end to the month, but significant cold under serious doubt.

Really need to see the upgrades in the short to medium term.

sdanseo · 12-01-2019 6:44pm

refusetolose wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/1084137955902570497

Holy cow. That would make Emma look like a gentle breeze.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2019 6:53pm

refusetolose wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/1084137955902570497

ECM showing a large area of LP coming off Greenland at +240 hrs on the Oz with a big push of cold air out in front of it , will be interesting to see if it goes the same way as the GFS ,the 12Z coming out soon.

Gonzo · 12-01-2019 7:04pm

There is currently a great deal of uncertainty about what happens after next weekend.

The GFS Ensemble run up to January 27th for my hometown of Dunshaughlin in County Meath, shows general agreement of milder than average conditions lasting up to late Tuesday with very low amounts of rainfall.

For Wednesday the models show spikes in precipitation and a drop in overall temperature, but nothing terribly cold.

The models suggest temperatures returning back to normal values late Thursday and into Friday as well as early Saturday.

After that they mostly show a small to medium drop in temperature between 20th and 23rd of January, followed by great uncertainty after that.

From the 23rd to 27th of January the ensemble is showing wide variations in temperature outcomes, some colder outcomes but also several very mild outcomes that want to bring the mild Atlantic back.

The only thing that looks consistent from the middle of next week, is that unsettled conditions and precipitation will be dominant.

gabeeg · 12-01-2019 7:08pm

The GFS Para just produced an amazing run. Miles off in FI though.

highdef · 12-01-2019 7:10pm

The latest GFS(P) run is sheer amazement! If we got anywhere near what it's showing, we'd be buried for days, at least. Nice to look at though :P

And apologies, I just realised I posted this in the wrong thread. Should've been in the FI thread....my bad!

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments