What if there is no cure?

The chan chan man · 06-04-2020 6:44am #1

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

Diarmuid · 06-04-2020 6:57am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

I think you know the answer, everyone eventually gets it over a period of time and based on the most solid number currently available, 0.5% of the population die in the best case scenario.

snoopboggybog · 06-04-2020 6:58am

It's an interesting question.

The normal flu can cause up to 1000 deaths a year in Ireland and even with vaccines etc. people still catch it.

Even if we do get a vaccine there will be different strains and no one will ever be fully immune like the chicken pox.

I think people with underlying conditions and the elderly will need to wear face masks and goggles whenever they are out in public for a long long time.

Its horrible to think about to be honest but i reckon it will be around the 1% mark whoever catches it.

We can't put the country on hold forever.

Tokyo · 06-04-2020 6:59am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries.

Not quite. There are a few varieties of coronavirus that cause cold like symptoms, but the vast majority of colds are caused by rhino viruses. Rhino viruses mutate rapidly and there are so many varieties that there is no way to easily create a vaccine. Added to that, it's not necessarily a case of being 'impossible', but rather it’s a waste of time and money to develop vaccines for just one let alone hundreds of non-life threatening viruses.

On the other hand, a vaccine for COVID-19, which is caused by a specific coronavirus, is comparatively easier. There is one (possibly 2) virus and pre-existing data to start with (SARS research) in creating the vaccine.

Diarmuid · 06-04-2020 7:01am

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

GM228 · 06-04-2020 7:01am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

The common cold is not a coronavirus, it's a HRV (human rhinovirus).

Wibbs · 06-04-2020 8:08am

Diarmuid wrote: »

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

Not quite D, or at least length of immunity is still an unknown variable. In those who contracted and survived SARS, a similar virus, most had antibodies after two years, some out to three, but IIRC that dropped off after that time. I'll try and dig up the study on it. Then again if most people in the world gained immunity through either catching and surviving the virus or through a vaccine the potential pool for hosts would fall off a cliff and the virus would be homeless. Even if that immunity only lasted a few years.

Sleeper12 · 06-04-2020 8:14am

Diarmuid wrote:

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

It's already mutated 8 times, to some extent, that we know of in the last 4 or 5 months. As of 2 weeks ago there were 8 separate strains of the virus.

Wibbs · 06-04-2020 8:18am

It's where the mutations occur is the thing I gather. If the mutations are "internal" not on the protein coating then immunity/vaccines will keep working, but if the protein coating mutates it becomes less recognisable to the host's immune system. Measles mutates like all viruses do, but one dose of it, or a vaccination and you're essentially covered for life.

The One Doctor · 06-04-2020 8:32am

It's a tough one. We can't sit here forever, our money loving economy is dying on its feet right now. That said, I don't want anyone to die from some uppity virus either. Where's the balance?

The balance is where the we discover that we do actually all care for one another, albeit in a slightly impersonal way.

Interesting about the economy... apparently it has to grow all the time. Like us. But growth for the sake of growth is the philosophy of cancer.

I dunno, to be blunt.

Wanderer78 · 06-04-2020 8:34am

The One Doctor wrote:

Interesting about the economy... apparently it has to grow all the time. Like us. But growth for the sake of growth is the philosophy of cancer.

Many economic commentators use this anology, there's an element of truth in it, are we just slowly killing ourselves with all this growth!

begbysback · 06-04-2020 8:37am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

This is probably the best explanation of the purpose of a virus, if it persists then it will most likely mutate into something milder over a period of time - so it can live with us

SeaBreezes · 06-04-2020 8:39am

What if it's like Spanish flu?
Spanish flu targeted the old and infirm its first year too.
What if next year it roars back targeting the young?
Is it time to say juniors gotta go then too?
Better to beat it now..

El_Duderino 09 · 06-04-2020 8:42am

It's a conversation we should definitely have. In one way we should dave had this conversation before the lock down. But I also think that if the governments all around the world had been completely upfront at the beginning and told everyone that they were going into a kind of lock down for 2 or 3 months, only going outside for food and exercise, then people might have bucked. So they had to do it in increments to get people used to each set of changes before introducing further changes.

Eventually we might have to make the decision to just go back out and accept the fact that people will die at a higher rate then if we all.stayed at home.

maestroamado · 06-04-2020 8:49am

I expect over if it is not gone in a couple of months we will all be exposed to it and a large proportion have contacted minor doses already. It may be by contacting a small amount our bodies learn to deal with it and build up immunity. The biggest danger seem be people who have being on prolonged medication.

I met a friend the other day who was out with dog. This friend is the head nurse in local ICU. We were keeping our social distance.
The dog was not on a lead as we were beside friends house, during the course of chat i mentioned the dog and covid 19 as dog was beside me and i was aware of this so i mentioned it.
They said animals do not carry viruses, i accepted this completely as from a professional.
This morning i read that a 4 year old tiger in New York has being diagnosed with Covid 19.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 06-04-2020 8:50am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

I reckon a big reason for that is that the common cold is generally a very mild, self-limiting illness. So the impetus to find a cure just never was there. Coronavirus 'mild' and common cold 'mild' seem to be two very different things.

Apparently some people can die from a cold but it seems incredibly rare.

El_Duderino 09 · 06-04-2020 9:05am

maestroamado wrote: »

The dog was not on a lead as we were beside friends house, during the course of chat i mentioned the dog and covid 19 as dog was beside me and i was aware of this so i mentioned it.
They said animals do not carry viruses, i accepted this completely as from a professional.
This morning i read that a 4 year old tiger in New York has being diagnosed with Covid 19.

The dog can carry it on their coat and rub against your leg or you pet the dog and then you bring it back to your house - or the other way around and your friend brings it back to their house.

If you kept your distance from your friend in case you might transfer it between you, then the same needs to apply to the dog.

You can carry it on your clothes but your clothes can’t get sick. Of course the dog could have it on their coat even if they couldn’t get sick

Miccoli · 06-04-2020 9:19am

GM228 wrote: »

The common cold is not a coronavirus, it's a HRV (human rhinovirus).

There's still a large minority of common colds caused by coronaviruses, around 10%.

Danzy · 06-04-2020 9:23am

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

It'll become milder in time so one won't know if it is a cold or Chinese Bat Flu.

Medical treatments will vastly reduce the fatality rate.

Hand sanitizer and masks will be everywhere after the lockdown.

5 minute tests, home tests will be everywhere and used for every sniffle.

All within 8 to 10 weeks.

maestroamado · 06-04-2020 9:28am

I did not keep distance as the person said dogs not carry, i actually thought same as you you until they said dogs not carry.
Anyway not much i can do now, there is a good chance i may have contacted as i returned from one of the countries which has being seriously effected 3 weeks ago.
I did stay home as it was just then we all started to realize that this was a serious. Buses. trains planes etc are lethal....

Wizard! · 06-04-2020 9:29am

There is a possibility of an easy cure with the use of 3 different medicines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zer6omW0vnU

DeVore · 06-04-2020 9:38am

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It's already mutated 8 times, to some extent, that we know of in the last 4 or 5 months. As of 2 weeks ago there were 8 separate strains of the virus.

The 'flu mutates 8-10 times a month. Its called viral genetic drift (and "shift")...its responsible for the difficulty in vaccinating against it.
COVID mutates about 1-2 times a month it seems. Remember, not all mutations will cause vaccines to stop working. If its not a big mutation (which likely renders the virus non-functioning anyway) or a mutation in the protein/RNA/whatever the immunes system uses to recognise it, then the vaccine continues to be effective.

DeVore · 06-04-2020 9:40am

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It's a conversation we should definitely have. In one way we should dave had this conversation before the lock down. But I also think that if the governments all around the world had been completely upfront at the beginning and told everyone that they were going into a kind of lock down for 2 or 3 months, only going outside for food and exercise, then people might have bucked. So they had to do it in increments to get people used to each set of changes before introducing further changes.

Eventually we might have to make the decision to just go back out and accept the fact that people will die at a higher rate then if we all.stayed at home.

But its not just "the same people dead at a higher rate". Thats just not true. When the italians maxed out their healthcare system their CFR (case fatality rate) sky rocketed.

Not having ICU/Ventilator beds is a disaster and many many more people will needlessly die. Its not the same number of people, just quicker.

Danzy · 06-04-2020 9:41am

It seems that the virus is considered to be very stable, ie little mutation

Which is not the same as no mutation, you can be certain that there are multiple strains in Ireland now.

Just not enough to concern immunologists or those racing to a vaccine.

JustAThought · 06-04-2020 9:48am

Danzy wrote: »

It seems that the virus is considered to be very stable, ie little mutation

Which is not the same as no mutation, you can be certain that there are multiple strains in Ireland now.

Just not enough to concern immunologists or those racing to a vaccine.

and you cannot catch it from pets - unless you have a bat or civid cat or camel in your luving room in which case you have far greater problems.

Current stats are running at 2% death. For Iteland that would be what 40,000 people. Time to stop the local authority councils charging a thousand euro to JCB dig a 6 foot grave open and to start externally regulating the small group of families that run the funeral industries.

Podge201 · 06-04-2020 9:51am

The Chinese will have a vaccine in a few months time to sell us.

Danzy · 06-04-2020 9:56am

Podge201 wrote: »

The Chinese will have a vaccine in a few months time to sell us.

There are several vaccines already in human trials and over 50 being worked on.

It's not considered a highly complex virus.

Kivaro · 06-04-2020 9:57am

There's a whole new dimension to this virus now with the human to animal transmission confirmed today.
A Covid-19 infected zoo employee transmitted the virus to a tiger in the Bronx zoo, and other animals in the zoo now have it also.

DeVore · 06-04-2020 10:19am

I have seen confirmation of a transmission to the tiger but only of a "coronavirus". Cats are already known to be susceptible to a variety of coronaviruses but I havent seen it confirmed that its COVID 19. If it is (and it may well be), the paper I read on the topic was clear that cat-to-human transmission isnt proved (it also may well be, but it hasnt been researched yet so we dont know either way).

Zoonotic diseases are relatively rare. Viruses dont like humans to begin with (we have very elaborate and nasty immune systems) and tend to want to stay within a species. There are some that can jump species for sure, but we're not sure yet if this is one that can jump from cat to humans.

Edit: for example, heres an NCBI study from 1993 about coronavirus transmission to cats: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8380655

GM228 · 06-04-2020 10:24am

DeVore wrote: »

I have seen confirmation of a transmission to the tiger but only of a "coronavirus". Cats are already known to be susceptible to a variety of coronaviruses but I havent seen it confirmed that its COVID 19. If it is (and it may well be), the paper I read on the topic was clear that cat-to-human transmission isnt proved (it also may well be, but it hasnt been researched yet so we dont know either way).

Zoonotic diseases are relatively rare. Viruses dont like humans to begin with (we have very elaborate and nasty immune systems) and tend to want to stay within a species. There are some that can jump species for sure, but we're not sure yet if this is one that can jump from cat to humans.

Edit: for example, heres an NCBI study from 1993 about coronavirus transmission to cats: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8380655

From the Zoo themselves:-

https://newsroom.wcs.org/?_ga=2.73784145.2118705509.1586164888-971338039.1586164888

Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo, has tested positive for COVID-19. She, her sister Azul, two Amur tigers, and three African lions had developed a dry cough and all are expected to recover

If that's not enough the US Department of Agriculture has also confirmed it:-

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/news/sa_by_date/sa-2020/ny-zoo-covid-19

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories has confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans) in one tiger at a zoo in New York. This is the first instance of a tiger being infected with COVID-19. Samples from this tiger were taken and tested after several lions and tigers at the zoo showed symptoms of respiratory illness.

There has also been officiial confirmation in two dogs released by the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department in Hong Kong previously.

El_Duderino 09 · 06-04-2020 11:06am

DeVore wrote: »

But its not just "the same people dead at a higher rate". Thats just not true. When the italians maxed out their healthcare system their CFR (case fatality rate) sky rocketed.

Not having ICU/Ventilator beds is a disaster and many many more people will needlessly die. Its not the same number of people, just quicker.

Sure. It's what I said "people will die at a higher rate then if we all stayed at home. For example 5% death rate is a higher rate than 2% death rate. And that's the conversation we ought to have sooner or later, no matter how unpleasant it might be to think about.

If we go into a big recession when this is over, and have to cut spending on the health service by 20%. That would also bring a higher death rate. So it's not a clear cut answer and we should have the discussion

What if there is no cure?

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