What if there is no cure?

The chan chan man

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

Diarmuid

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

I think you know the answer, everyone eventually gets it over a period of time and based on the most solid number currently available, 0.5% of the population die in the best case scenario.

snoopboggybog

It's an interesting question.

The normal flu can cause up to 1000 deaths a year in Ireland and even with vaccines etc. people still catch it.

Even if we do get a vaccine there will be different strains and no one will ever be fully immune like the chicken pox.

I think people with underlying conditions and the elderly will need to wear face masks and goggles whenever they are out in public for a long long time.

Its horrible to think about to be honest but i reckon it will be around the 1% mark whoever catches it.

We can't put the country on hold forever.

Tokyo

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries.

Not quite. There are a few varieties of coronavirus that cause cold like symptoms, but the vast majority of colds are caused by rhino viruses. Rhino viruses mutate rapidly and there are so many varieties that there is no way to easily create a vaccine. Added to that, it's not necessarily a case of being 'impossible', but rather it’s a waste of time and money to develop vaccines for just one let alone hundreds of non-life threatening viruses.

On the other hand, a vaccine for COVID-19, which is caused by a specific coronavirus, is comparatively easier. There is one (possibly 2) virus and pre-existing data to start with (SARS research) in creating the vaccine.

Diarmuid

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

GM228

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

The common cold is not a coronavirus, it's a HRV (human rhinovirus).

Wibbs

Diarmuid wrote: »

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

Not quite D, or at least length of immunity is still an unknown variable. In those who contracted and survived SARS, a similar virus, most had antibodies after two years, some out to three, but IIRC that dropped off after that time. I'll try and dig up the study on it. Then again if most people in the world gained immunity through either catching and surviving the virus or through a vaccine the potential pool for hosts would fall off a cliff and the virus would be homeless. Even if that immunity only lasted a few years.

Sleeper12

Diarmuid wrote:

Must reports suggest it's quiet stable so won't mutate reach year. So once you're immune, you stay immune

It's already mutated 8 times, to some extent, that we know of in the last 4 or 5 months. As of 2 weeks ago there were 8 separate strains of the virus.

Wibbs

It's where the mutations occur is the thing I gather. If the mutations are "internal" not on the protein coating then immunity/vaccines will keep working, but if the protein coating mutates it becomes less recognisable to the host's immune system. Measles mutates like all viruses do, but one dose of it, or a vaccination and you're essentially covered for life.

The One Doctor

It's a tough one. We can't sit here forever, our money loving economy is dying on its feet right now. That said, I don't want anyone to die from some uppity virus either. Where's the balance?

The balance is where the we discover that we do actually all care for one another, albeit in a slightly impersonal way.

Interesting about the economy... apparently it has to grow all the time. Like us. But growth for the sake of growth is the philosophy of cancer.

I dunno, to be blunt.

Wanderer78

The One Doctor wrote:

Interesting about the economy... apparently it has to grow all the time. Like us. But growth for the sake of growth is the philosophy of cancer.

Many economic commentators use this anology, there's an element of truth in it, are we just slowly killing ourselves with all this growth!

begbysback

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

This is probably the best explanation of the purpose of a virus, if it persists then it will most likely mutate into something milder over a period of time - so it can live with us

SeaBreezes

What if it's like Spanish flu?
Spanish flu targeted the old and infirm its first year too.
What if next year it roars back targeting the young?
Is it time to say juniors gotta go then too?
Better to beat it now..

El_Duderino 09

It's a conversation we should definitely have. In one way we should dave had this conversation before the lock down. But I also think that if the governments all around the world had been completely upfront at the beginning and told everyone that they were going into a kind of lock down for 2 or 3 months, only going outside for food and exercise, then people might have bucked. So they had to do it in increments to get people used to each set of changes before introducing further changes.

Eventually we might have to make the decision to just go back out and accept the fact that people will die at a higher rate then if we all.stayed at home.

maestroamado

I expect over if it is not gone in a couple of months we will all be exposed to it and a large proportion have contacted minor doses already. It may be by contacting a small amount our bodies learn to deal with it and build up immunity. The biggest danger seem be people who have being on prolonged medication.

I met a friend the other day who was out with dog. This friend is the head nurse in local ICU. We were keeping our social distance.
The dog was not on a lead as we were beside friends house, during the course of chat i mentioned the dog and covid 19 as dog was beside me and i was aware of this so i mentioned it.
They said animals do not carry viruses, i accepted this completely as from a professional.
This morning i read that a 4 year old tiger in New York has being diagnosed with Covid 19.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

I reckon a big reason for that is that the common cold is generally a very mild, self-limiting illness. So the impetus to find a cure just never was there. Coronavirus 'mild' and common cold 'mild' seem to be two very different things.

Apparently some people can die from a cold but it seems incredibly rare.

El_Duderino 09

maestroamado wrote: »

The dog was not on a lead as we were beside friends house, during the course of chat i mentioned the dog and covid 19 as dog was beside me and i was aware of this so i mentioned it.
They said animals do not carry viruses, i accepted this completely as from a professional.
This morning i read that a 4 year old tiger in New York has being diagnosed with Covid 19.

The dog can carry it on their coat and rub against your leg or you pet the dog and then you bring it back to your house - or the other way around and your friend brings it back to their house.

If you kept your distance from your friend in case you might transfer it between you, then the same needs to apply to the dog.

You can carry it on your clothes but your clothes can’t get sick. Of course the dog could have it on their coat even if they couldn’t get sick

Miccoli

GM228 wrote: »

The common cold is not a coronavirus, it's a HRV (human rhinovirus).

There's still a large minority of common colds caused by coronaviruses, around 10%.

Danzy

The chan chan man wrote: »

The common cold is also a coronavirus, there has been no prevention or cure for this for centuries. So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19? Do we stay on lockdown for life and watch our economies and mental states dwindle, or just accept that grandma’s gotta go?

It'll become milder in time so one won't know if it is a cold or Chinese Bat Flu.

Medical treatments will vastly reduce the fatality rate.

Hand sanitizer and masks will be everywhere after the lockdown.

5 minute tests, home tests will be everywhere and used for every sniffle.

All within 8 to 10 weeks.

maestroamado

I did not keep distance as the person said dogs not carry, i actually thought same as you you until they said dogs not carry.
Anyway not much i can do now, there is a good chance i may have contacted as i returned from one of the countries which has being seriously effected 3 weeks ago.
I did stay home as it was just then we all started to realize that this was a serious. Buses. trains planes etc are lethal....

Wizard!

There is a possibility of an easy cure with the use of 3 different medicines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zer6omW0vnU

DeVore

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It's already mutated 8 times, to some extent, that we know of in the last 4 or 5 months. As of 2 weeks ago there were 8 separate strains of the virus.

The 'flu mutates 8-10 times a month. Its called viral genetic drift (and "shift")...its responsible for the difficulty in vaccinating against it.
COVID mutates about 1-2 times a month it seems. Remember, not all mutations will cause vaccines to stop working. If its not a big mutation (which likely renders the virus non-functioning anyway) or a mutation in the protein/RNA/whatever the immunes system uses to recognise it, then the vaccine continues to be effective.

DeVore

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It's a conversation we should definitely have. In one way we should dave had this conversation before the lock down. But I also think that if the governments all around the world had been completely upfront at the beginning and told everyone that they were going into a kind of lock down for 2 or 3 months, only going outside for food and exercise, then people might have bucked. So they had to do it in increments to get people used to each set of changes before introducing further changes.

Eventually we might have to make the decision to just go back out and accept the fact that people will die at a higher rate then if we all.stayed at home.

But its not just "the same people dead at a higher rate". Thats just not true. When the italians maxed out their healthcare system their CFR (case fatality rate) sky rocketed.

Not having ICU/Ventilator beds is a disaster and many many more people will needlessly die. Its not the same number of people, just quicker.

Danzy

It seems that the virus is considered to be very stable, ie little mutation

Which is not the same as no mutation, you can be certain that there are multiple strains in Ireland now.

Just not enough to concern immunologists or those racing to a vaccine.

JustAThought

Danzy wrote: »

It seems that the virus is considered to be very stable, ie little mutation

Which is not the same as no mutation, you can be certain that there are multiple strains in Ireland now.

Just not enough to concern immunologists or those racing to a vaccine.

and you cannot catch it from pets - unless you have a bat or civid cat or camel in your luving room in which case you have far greater problems.

Current stats are running at 2% death. For Iteland that would be what 40,000 people. Time to stop the local authority councils charging a thousand euro to JCB dig a 6 foot grave open and to start externally regulating the small group of families that run the funeral industries.

Podge201

The Chinese will have a vaccine in a few months time to sell us.

Danzy

Podge201 wrote: »

The Chinese will have a vaccine in a few months time to sell us.

There are several vaccines already in human trials and over 50 being worked on.

It's not considered a highly complex virus.

Kivaro

There's a whole new dimension to this virus now with the human to animal transmission confirmed today.
A Covid-19 infected zoo employee transmitted the virus to a tiger in the Bronx zoo, and other animals in the zoo now have it also.

DeVore

I have seen confirmation of a transmission to the tiger but only of a "coronavirus". Cats are already known to be susceptible to a variety of coronaviruses but I havent seen it confirmed that its COVID 19. If it is (and it may well be), the paper I read on the topic was clear that cat-to-human transmission isnt proved (it also may well be, but it hasnt been researched yet so we dont know either way).

Zoonotic diseases are relatively rare. Viruses dont like humans to begin with (we have very elaborate and nasty immune systems) and tend to want to stay within a species. There are some that can jump species for sure, but we're not sure yet if this is one that can jump from cat to humans.

Edit: for example, heres an NCBI study from 1993 about coronavirus transmission to cats: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8380655

GM228

DeVore wrote: »

I have seen confirmation of a transmission to the tiger but only of a "coronavirus". Cats are already known to be susceptible to a variety of coronaviruses but I havent seen it confirmed that its COVID 19. If it is (and it may well be), the paper I read on the topic was clear that cat-to-human transmission isnt proved (it also may well be, but it hasnt been researched yet so we dont know either way).

Zoonotic diseases are relatively rare. Viruses dont like humans to begin with (we have very elaborate and nasty immune systems) and tend to want to stay within a species. There are some that can jump species for sure, but we're not sure yet if this is one that can jump from cat to humans.

Edit: for example, heres an NCBI study from 1993 about coronavirus transmission to cats: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8380655

From the Zoo themselves:-

https://newsroom.wcs.org/?_ga=2.73784145.2118705509.1586164888-971338039.1586164888

Nadia, a 4-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo, has tested positive for COVID-19. She, her sister Azul, two Amur tigers, and three African lions had developed a dry cough and all are expected to recover

If that's not enough the US Department of Agriculture has also confirmed it:-

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/news/sa_by_date/sa-2020/ny-zoo-covid-19

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories has confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans) in one tiger at a zoo in New York. This is the first instance of a tiger being infected with COVID-19. Samples from this tiger were taken and tested after several lions and tigers at the zoo showed symptoms of respiratory illness.

There has also been officiial confirmation in two dogs released by the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department in Hong Kong previously.

El_Duderino 09

DeVore wrote: »

But its not just "the same people dead at a higher rate". Thats just not true. When the italians maxed out their healthcare system their CFR (case fatality rate) sky rocketed.

Not having ICU/Ventilator beds is a disaster and many many more people will needlessly die. Its not the same number of people, just quicker.

Sure. It's what I said "people will die at a higher rate then if we all stayed at home. For example 5% death rate is a higher rate than 2% death rate. And that's the conversation we ought to have sooner or later, no matter how unpleasant it might be to think about.

If we go into a big recession when this is over, and have to cut spending on the health service by 20%. That would also bring a higher death rate. So it's not a clear cut answer and we should have the discussion

DeVore

Ok, 3.5% is the CFR (case fatality rate) worldwide. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#the-current-case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19 ) Theres some indication that that will drop to closer to 1% (optimistic) over time.
Thats 40k dead over the 4M pop. Lets say it reaches herd immunity (somewhere around 2.6M) and we'll just conveniently ignore the rest of the pop. Thats still 26,000 dead. So somewhere between 26,000 and 40,000 at the best possible CFR.

Now the CSO recorded about 8-9k people died in Q1 of 2019, in Ireland, of *anything at all* (https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2019/) , so we're talking somewhere in the region of 32-36k deaths for the year from every known source.

So what we're talking about is *at best* a years worth of deaths.

Now, the italians have been recording a CFR of about 11% since they blew through their healthcare maximums. This is basically the current worst case but since it also includes the period before they exceeded the maximums, its probably going to continue to tip upwards. Now, this is the worst case scenario but its what will happen if we were to release lockdown prematurely and abruptly. (And yes, I understand there is a middle ground but I want to establish the upper and lower limits first).
So in that case we're looking at a lot more deaths, somewhere in the quarter million region at least. Or a decade of our usually death rate.


I dont have info on the future economics but I'd be interested in any "discussion" which shows statistical basis for economic impact which would justify an alternative course of action.

This is the discussion you want to have I believe.

Wibbs

GM228 wrote: »

From the Zoo themselves:-

https://newsroom.wcs.org/?_ga=2.73784145.2118705509.1586164888-971338039.1586164888



If that's not enough the US Department of Agriculture has also confirmed it:-

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom/news/sa_by_date/sa-2020/ny-zoo-covid-19



There has also been officiial confirmation in two dogs released by the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department in Hong Kong previously.

Viruses can jump species, but one that infects humans, likely bats, maybe pangolins and now three different species of felines(tiger, lion, domestic) and is symptomatic in each? That's unusual I would have thought? Though rabies can infect and kill loads of mammals so not really I suppose.

El_Duderino 09

DeVore wrote: »

I dont have info on the future economics but I'd be interested in any "discussion" which shows statistical basis for economic impact which would justify an alternative course of action.

This is the discussion you want to have I believe.

Yeah. The discussion about whether we stay in lock down or accept that there will be a higher rate of deaths if we go back to work and try to get things back to normal.

Trump is talking about this but purely from the selfish perspective of his re-election prospects. So it a pity that he is the main proponent of getting things back to normal and accepting the higher rate of deaths.

I suppose the discussion would have to start with the simple sounding questions like; "when/ under what circumstances would we like to stop the lock down?"

For example, with an average infection rate of 20,000 per week, and a population of 5m on the island. How many weeks would it take to everyone to get it? And how many weeks would it take for about 66% of the population to get it and begin herd Immunity?

P.s. It would take 250 weeks for everyone to become infected and it would take about 150 weeks for herd immunity at about 66%.

For context, we have about 5,000 TOTAL conformed cases in the Republic so far so we're talking a massive increase in infections.

Wibbs

DeVore wrote: »

Now the CSO recorded about 8-9k people died in Q1 of 2019, in Ireland, of *anything at all* (https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticsfirstquarter2019/) , so we're talking somewhere in the region of 32-36k deaths for the year from every known source.

So what we're talking about is *at best* a years worth of deaths.

You're leaving out one obvious factor; those who will die from Covid19 that would have otherwise died from other morbidities anyway. Yes it will most certainly speed up that process and lower longevity among some demographics, the majority being elderly, but it won't be a case of 30,000 "new" deaths. Of course that's of zero comfort for loved ones who lose an already ailing grandparent or parent earlier than expected, but big picture here and let's look at the wood, not the trees, it's not armageddon either.

Take Italy's deaths at least in March. Here's a study by Italy's HSE Google translate may be required. Anyhoo, over 99% of people who died had underlying conditions(0.8 had none). 75% had high blood pressure, over a third had diabetes and another third were being treated for heart disease. The average age of death was as close to 80 as makes no difference, less than 20 people died under the age of 50 and every one of those who died under 40 had serious underlying conditions.

Now these were all of course deaths and hospitalisations, we have no clue how many caught and recovered from the virus and won't know until the dust has settled way down the line, any other claim is supposition at this stage.

Now this is a serious time and a serious virus and people will die, including those who might not be able to get medical attention because the hospitals are overwhelmed. And yes we need to keep a lid on it as much as we can and save as many as we can, but we also need not lose the run of ourselves with projections that in the face of a lot of unknowns and suppositions are little more than intellectual exercises.

Idbatterim

[articularly in relation to the above post, read this... many who have died, would likely die any way. I am not saying what the Americans and english did is right, it wasnt, but this lock down, is not viable for long either. I think they should start re-opening some businesses, absolutely building supplier and builders, you cant just take several hundred thousand out of jobs, on top of several hundred thousand others, the latter makes sense, not the former in my opinion. Or only for a very brief period, to put stuff in place with health...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120805778/coronavirus-to-swedes-its-the-rest-of-the-world-engaging-in-a-reckless-experiment

Nermal

DeVore wrote: »

Ok, 3.5% is the CFR (case fatality rate) worldwide. (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#the-current-case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19 ) Theres some indication that that will drop to closer to 1% (optimistic) over time.

Come on - this CFR and quotes of 11% in Italy are absolute nonsense. Both the numerator and denominator are meaningless, we cannot identify who has the disease and cannot agree how to define who died from it.

The only nation that has conducted randomised testing has a CFR of 0.25%, per your own link. This wasn't antibody testing, so it's an overestimate.

That's the starting point for discussion.

Wibbs

Idbatterim wrote: »

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120805778/coronavirus-to-swedes-its-the-rest-of-the-world-engaging-in-a-reckless-experiment

I'd not be looking to Sweden for a good example. They have a younger demographic and a first class health system, but their prime minister has started to warn them of the number of deaths coming.

Like I said we're all in WTF mode in this, with a large side order of we're not actually sure what's what. And you mention construction. We need to look at jobs and businesses as far as risk goes. Online businesses are much lower risk than pubs for example. Callout and delivery services that never cross a threshold of a dwelling are lower risk. How risky are building sites and even what type of building site. EG building a factory/hotel/business centre with no "civilians" on the ground or going in and out of a site is less risky than extension work on an existing used site. Is the government even looking at this kind of risk evaluation? Or how to reduce it.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

snoopboggybog wrote: »

It's an interesting question.

The normal flu can cause up to 1000 deaths a year in Ireland and even with vaccines etc. people still catch it.

Even if we do get a vaccine there will be different strains and no one will ever be fully immune like the chicken pox.

I think people with underlying conditions and the elderly will need to wear face masks and goggles whenever they are out in public for a long long time.

Its horrible to think about to be honest but i reckon it will be around the 1% mark whoever catches it.

We can't put the country on hold forever.

On average, the flu kills about 200-500 people in Ireland annually. We've almost reached that figure with this virus after a few weeks!

Also, early research seems to indicate that this virus does not mutate particularly quickly... so any vaccine could be effective for many years. It's unlikely to mutate like the seasonal flu.

s7ryf3925pivug

The objective is not to prevent people catching it. The objective is to prevent too many people catching it at once. They are trying to avoid overwhelming the health service. If the health service is overwhelmed then not everyone who is critical can be treated and the fatality rate increases greatly.

Enough people will eventually catch it and recover that fewer humans will be susceptible to infection and therefore those who are susceptible will be exposed less. This does not depend on immunity being permanent. Even if it becomes endemic it will not continue to have the same impact at that point.

The general view seems to be that it's reasonable to expect a vaccine to be developed sooner or later. I don't think colds are a good comparison. There is less motivation to develop a vaccine for a cold. I read somewhere that vaccines are generally not particularly profitable so developing vaccines for relatively trivial diseases seems like a waste of resources whatever way you look at it.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Nermal wrote: »

Come on - this CFR and quotes of 11% in Italy are absolute nonsense. Both the numerator and denominator are meaningless, we cannot identify who has the disease and cannot agree how to define who died from it.

The only nation that has conducted randomised testing has a CFR of 0.25%, per your own link. This wasn't antibody testing, so it's an overestimate.

That's the starting point for discussion.

Clearly the numbers must be very high in Italy and Spain in particular, otherwise how do you explain their hospitals being completely overwhelmed?

Just exactly how high is debatable, of course, but you cannot ignore the obvious signs that they were hit with something huge that took them by surprise. It's definitely well out of normal proportions.

Also, the % of healthcare workers dying must also be quite alarming too. I can't imagine it would be too common for doctors and nurses to drop dead at such frequency in normal circumstances in these countries.

DeVore

Nermal wrote: »

Come on - this CFR and quotes of 11% in Italy are absolute nonsense. Both the numerator and denominator are meaningless, we cannot identify who has the disease and cannot agree how to define who died from it.

The only nation that has conducted randomised testing has a CFR of 0.25%, per your own link. This wasn't antibody testing, so it's an overestimate.

That's the starting point for discussion.

Case Fatality Rate isnt calculated based on whole populations nor on those who might have it but havent been identified (think Aids etc). Its a rough metric used for comparision. I've already allowed for it being watered down over time in my post on this above.

That data/link is from the ECDC. I'll take there expertise over other peoples opinions.

biko

The chan chan man wrote: »

So what if there’s no cure for Covid-19?

I don't understand the question.
Many humans have recovered from the virus (even though it appears some have got it again..

ShineOn7

Sleeper12 wrote: »

It's already mutated 8 times, to some extent, that we know of in the last 4 or 5 months. As of 2 weeks ago there were 8 separate strains of the virus.

Source?

Hasn't the HSE worker in their AMA thread said there's only 2 strains still?

ShineOn7

begbysback wrote: »

This is probably the best explanation of the purpose of a virus, if it persists then it will most likely mutate into something milder over a period of time - so it can live with us

Sorry but who the hell is that guy and why should we listen to him?

People need to stop sharing articles and videos without:

A) making sure the source is credible, and stating where they're from when they re-share

Kivaro

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd not be looking to Sweden for a good example. They have a younger demographic and a first class health system, but their prime minister has started to warn them of the number of deaths coming.
.....

Sweden is hugely important in all of this.
We need one country where we could rely on solid verifiable reporting, and use this a baseline to determine if lock downs were indeed the correct measure. Personally, I believe social distancing is very important, but can this be practiced indefinitely into the future? We have not matured as a society (yet) to follow rules like physical distancing; meaning that there should be a very high % compliance for it to work. I believe that the Irish government is saying we only need 80% compliance, but that is not enough. We need to be in the high 90's.

quokula

DeVore wrote: »

Case Fatality Rate isnt calculated based on whole populations nor on those who might have it but havent been identified (think Aids etc). Its a rough metric used for comparision. I've already allowed for it being watered down over time in my post on this above.

That data/link is from the ECDC. I'll take there expertise over other peoples opinions.

I think you've misunderstood their post. The link you posted contained data for Iceland, which is a country that has had the most comprehensive testing.

Out of those who tested positive, there is a CFR of 0.25% - this is neither an estimate or a percentage of the whole population, it is a real CFR based on real data.

Yes, there will be demographic differences, cultural differences, climate difference and health service differences that may all play a part. But the obvious explanation for CFR to be much lower in places that have comprehensive testing is that places that have less testing are simply missing large numbers of mild cases and making the percentage look higher.

storker

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

I reckon a big reason for that is that the common cold is generally a very mild, self-limiting illness.

And, while I'm not a conspiracy theorist, you'd have to wonder about the money made selling cold remedies and how much that might impact the urgency given to finding a vaccine.

ShineOn7

Danzy wrote: »

It'll become milder in time so one won't know if it is a cold or Chinese Bat Flu.

Medical treatments will vastly reduce the fatality rate.

Hand sanitizer and masks will be everywhere after the lockdown.

5 minute tests, home tests will be everywhere and used for every sniffle.

All within 8 to 10 weeks.

Source?

ShineOn7

biko wrote: »

I don't understand the question.
Many humans have recovered from the virus (even though it appears some have got it again..

Sorry to keep saying "Source?", but it's so important these days to back up your statements with credible articles

Where did you see evidence of the bit in bold above?

ek motor

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Sorry to keep saying "Source?", but it's so important these days to back up your statements with credible articles

Where did you see evidence of the bit in bold above?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197