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What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

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    #122
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users Posts: 6,741 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    Bad enough that someone asked about the money Google "owe" us, but then posters actually replied about Google as well!


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    #123
    kravmaga
    Registered Users Posts: 1,945 ✭✭✭kravmaga


    Dorakman wrote: »
    It’s early days yet of covid-19, however the past couple of days the number of new cases have been in or around 200-250. If all goes well, and the curve is indeed starting to flatten, it begs the question of how our economy will cope? Will this be a short lived depression, which will bounce back relatively quickly, or will we be thrown into a 2008 type scenario?

    Hi OP, I like this guy Colm Mc Carthy, he us usually right on the money and I read this article in full and agree with a lot of what he says is the outlook for the Irish economy.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0328/1126970-mccarthy-covid-economy/


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    #124
    jimmyrustle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭jimmyrustle


    enricoh wrote: »
    No let up in spending at the moment for the foreva home brigade anyway. On the front page of the Sunday times Dublin city council have signed leases on 200 apartments in the last week alone!

    Good. These people need to live somewhere and god knows overpriced hotels are not the answer.

    Just hope a minimal amount are going to people who have been in the country 5 minutes and/ or have little discernable link to the state.


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    #125
    kravmaga
    Registered Users Posts: 1,945 ✭✭✭kravmaga


    niallo27 wrote: »
    .Dell were burnt badly when they left for Poland.

    You cant really be serious with that comment???

    Dell Corporation badly burnt the workers in Limerick and went to a cheap labour industrial city of Lodz.

    I've been to Poland a few times and the rate per hour of the locals in Lodz was half of what the workers in the plant in Raheen, Limerick earned. They have no union and the working conditions, terms and conditions are poor.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/dells-limerick-closure-to-cause-9500-job-losses-26523346.html


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    #126
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    J_1980 wrote: »
    The only real casualty is tourism and hospitality. Trades will see giant pent up demand, and the students will be back once this is over.

    Well if this isn't economic illiteracy in the face of one of the biggest global sh*tstorms in a century, I don't know what is.

    Tourism, you think the fallout will be limited to tourism. I have to laugh.


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    #127
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    kravmaga wrote: »
    Hi OP, I like this guy Colm Mc Carthy, he us usually right on the money and I read this article in full and agree with a lot of what he says is the outlook for the Irish economy.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0328/1126970-mccarthy-covid-economy/

    He is very good,has a weekly article in the farmers journal too....cuts straight through spin and bluster with accurate,no bullsh1t info....and his views seem well researched and informed properly


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    #128
    Marsden35
    Site Banned Posts: 93 ✭✭Marsden35


    Short term pain. We won't have a recession in the west like 2008. That was a systemic problem. This isn't.

    Once the shackles are off and lockdown is over, the economic furnace will begin to burn and within 6 months we'll be back polluting the crap out of our world. Sorry Greta, no one is going to want to hear you moan for awhile.

    In fact, the global economy was overdue a downturn. We may have been forced into one in a more controlled way, and end up staving off the natural recession cycle this time around.

    I'm optimistic about the future. Especially if the Chinese acquire a more moderate pallet and leave disease ridden animals be.


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    #129
    JoChervil
    Registered Users Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    My friends working at the moment from homes are afraid that their companies will close aftermath. These companies are at the verge off viability and they will use this opportunity to close their businesses and save their faces. Probably there will be good schemes for employers to do it than in a normal times...


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    #130
    kravmaga
    Registered Users Posts: 1,945 ✭✭✭kravmaga


    reg114 wrote: »
    Air bnb will probably fold their Dublin offices, as there will be zero tourists visiting Ireland for the remainder of this year at best.

    That's there European Headquarters so I doubt they will close down completely.

    Can see headcount reductions coming down the line alright.


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    #131
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    J_1980 wrote: »
    What’s frightening about that? They bring the jobs and loads of tax revenue (also on incomes taxes of the employees) in return for fair stable treatment.

    What you want to happen? Force them to stay here at gunpoint and fleece their employees at 60% taxation?
    You can stick you SinnFein Stalinism where the sun never shines.


    You have no idea what i want but i will tell you.
    I want us to run our own country and not be led by Multi National corporations.

    We need to control our own destiny more in my opinion.
    Most of our high end products are exported to US.
    We produce expensive meat which 90% is exported, we produce very little of our food requirements except for meat/dairy, all other stuff is imported from less expensive economies especially Spain.

    I am not associated to politics as that is where the problem and really the whole system.
    Where i am coming from is i wish as a country we produced more of what we need in regard to food for our people.
    What i am saying was evident with queues at supermarkets...


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    #132
    RiseAbove4
    Registered Users Posts: 77 ✭✭RiseAbove4


    Marsden35 wrote: »
    Short term pain. We won't have a recession in the west like 2008. That was a systemic problem. This isn't.

    Once the shackles are off and lockdown is over, the economic furnace will begin to burn and within 6 months we'll be back polluting the crap out of our world. Sorry Greta, no one is going to want to hear you moan for awhile.

    In fact, the global economy was overdue a downturn. We may have been forced into one in a more controlled way, and end up staving off the natural recession cycle this time around.

    I'm optimistic about the future. Especially if the Chinese acquire a more moderate pallet and leave disease ridden animals be.


    There’s optimism and then there’s realism

    I think you need a lot more of the latter


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    #133
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,010 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    kravmaga wrote: »
    You cant really be serious with that comment???

    Dell Corporation badly burnt the workers in Limerick and went to a cheap labour industrial city of Lodz.

    I've been to Poland a few times and the rate per hour of the locals in Lodz was half of what the workers in the plant in Raheen, Limerick earned. They have no union and the working conditions, terms and conditions are poor.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/dells-limerick-closure-to-cause-9500-job-losses-26523346.html

    I was working there at the time, I think if they had their time back they would have not left. Dell has gone to **** since it left limerick.


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    #134
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    Marsden35 wrote: »
    Short term pain. We won't have a recession in the west like 2008. That was a systemic problem. This isn't.

    Once the shackles are off and lockdown is over, the economic furnace will begin to burn and within 6 months we'll be back polluting the crap out of our world. Sorry Greta, no one is going to want to hear you moan for awhile.

    In fact, the global economy was overdue a downturn. We may have been forced into one in a more controlled way, and end up staving off the natural recession cycle this time around.

    I'm optimistic about the future. Especially if the Chinese acquire a more moderate pallet and leave disease ridden animals be.

    Deluded is not the word.

    The global economy won't go back to normal immediately, many jobs will not come back. People will be fearful to spend as the virus will be back with version 2.0 next flu season. Vaccine will be 18 months at the earliest.

    Need i go on ?


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    #135
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,774 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Even before recovery time, how long can the govt continue to pay almost everyone €350 pw dole plus all of the additional health service and other PS personnel wages on top of additional capital health care costs?


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    #136
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Even before recovery time, how long can the govt continue to pay almost everyone €350 pw dole plus all of the additional health service and other PS personnel wages on top of additional capital health care costs?

    This is the question. I'd wager that our rainy day fund is extinguished already. We're taking the gamble that our European partners don't treat this crisis like the last one get their collective economic thinking hats on.

    The Hesse state finance minister committed suicide yesterday over the pressure on the economy. Maybe that will focus the mind's of German policy makers to ditch orthodoxy.


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    #137
    J_1980
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Yurt! wrote: »
    This is the question. I'd wager that our rainy day fund is extinguished already. We're taking the gamble that our European partners don't treat this crisis like the last one get their collective economic thinking hats on.

    The Hesse state finance minister committed suicide yesterday over the pressure on the economy. Maybe that will focus the mind's of German policy makers to ditch orthodoxy.

    All of Europe expects the same “European response” which translates to:
    “Germany pays”
    Are you surprised they don’t like it?

    “European solidarity “ is always a pure one-way money transfer. Not everyone is as stupid as the Irish and continues alimenting lifetime wasters.


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    #138
    Marsden35
    Site Banned Posts: 93 ✭✭Marsden35


    RiseAbove4 wrote: »
    There’s optimism and then there’s realism

    I think you need a lot more of the latter

    Some sectors will take longer to recover, for sure. But just imagine airlines, hotels, restaurants, pubs, tourism once this is over. They will boom.

    Much different to a systemic recession where the economic gears slowly grind to a halt.

    I'd also like to see manufacturing of essential equipment brought back from China to be made domestically. That will create some jobs too.

    Once lockdown is over, there will be a rush to spend. Imagine all the haircuts needed.

    I'm going to be like a woman whose just been given a platinum American express with no limit. Like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman.


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    #139
    Airyfairy12
    Registered Users Posts: 3,390 ✭✭✭Airyfairy12


    Marsden35 wrote: »
    Some sectors will take longer to recover, for sure. But just imagine airlines, hotels, restaurants, pubs, tourism once this is over. They will boom.

    Much different to a systemic recession where the economic gears slowly grind to a halt.

    I'd also like to see manufacturing of essential equipment brought back from China to be made domestically. That will create some jobs too.

    Once lockdown is over, there will be a rush to spend. Imagine all the haircuts needed.

    I'm going to be like a woman whose just been given a platinum American express with no limit. Like Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman.

    Rushing to spend with what money? Most people have lost their jobs. Businesses have had to let their staff go and lots of them will never reopen.

    Government can only pay the entire country 350 a week for so long, soon enough thats going to have to be cut down.

    The manufacturing of essential equipment is done in China because of the cheap labor. If your washing machine, smart phone or pennies jumper was made here, you'd be paying 10 times the cost.


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    #140
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    MadYaker wrote: »
    The chinese will likely have a big head start if their plan to prevent another outbreak works and will pass out the USA as the leading world super power. They are getting back to normal now while the US and EU are looking down the barrel and will be in disarray for months.

    From reading economists online there seems to be two most likely scenarios. If some sort of normality can resume in 8 - 12 weeks then most of the economy that was switched off should be able to come back to life, rehire whatever staff they layed off and resume trading. But if it's longer than that a lot of SMEs will start running into difficulty and apparently they make up 70% of the economy so if they go bust, start laying off staff, stop paying their rents and other loans and mortages on property etc then were looking at a much deeper longer recession.


    You've changed your tune.....


    Quote: 28th feb:
    Originally Posted by SeaBreezes:
    I'm laughing at the concern for the economy shown here.
    That's about as ostrich as it gets. The world economy is in free fall.
    There is NO way out of the global recession that's coming.
    And oddly the countries that manage the virus best will be first off their knees after.
    At the moment that's looking like China.

    Reply from MadYaker:
    Just highlighting this so we can come back to it in a few weeks and laugh.


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    #141
    Airyfairy12
    Registered Users Posts: 3,390 ✭✭✭Airyfairy12


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    You've changed your tune.....


    Quote: 28th feb:
    Originally Posted by SeaBreezes:
    I'm laughing at the concern for the economy shown here.
    That's about as ostrich as it gets. The world economy is in free fall.
    There is NO way out of the global recession that's coming.
    And oddly the countries that manage the virus best will be first off their knees after.
    At the moment that's looking like China.

    Reply from MadYaker:
    Just highlighting this so we can come back to it in a few weeks and laugh.

    Bit unfair to root out an old comment on someone and push it in their face. Did you or anyone else realise how this was going to blow up a month ago?

    A month ago none of us imagined the country would be on lockdown, schools cancelled and gaurds patrolling the streets questioning people why theyre out of their house.

    Im fed up reading these condescending arrogant posts. 'Oh look you said something a month ago and it turned out to be wrong, what have you got to say for yourself?'

    People can change their mind and form different opinions about things, especially when circumstances change, which in this case, it has done massively.


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    #142
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    J_1980 wrote: »
    All of Europe expects the same “European response” which translates to:
    “Germany pays”
    Are you surprised they don’t like it?

    “European solidarity “ is always a pure one-way money transfer. Not everyone is as stupid as the Irish and continues alimenting lifetime wasters.

    Clear off you weirdo. After your disgusting comments about Italy and Spain you should behave yourself you grade-A scumbag.

    (Mods I'll take whatever card you're giving me for this post, but note I've already reported the above waster for sociopathic comments mocking the suffering in Italy in another thread)


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    #143
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Airyfairy12 wrote: »
    Bit unfair to root out an old comment on someone and push it in their face. Did you or anyone else realise how this was going to blow up a month ago?

    A month ago none of us imagined the country would be on lockdown, schools cancelled and gaurds patrolling the streets questioning people why theyre out of their house.

    Im fed up reading these condescending arrogant posts. 'Oh look you said something a month ago and it turned out to be wrong, what have you got to say for yourself?'

    People can change their mind and form different opinions about things, especially when circumstances change, which in this case, it has done massively.

    I'm very glad people ARE changing their minds, and I think it totally fair to remind someone who quoted me three weeks ago, and said they would laugh at it in a few weeks time, what they said. Perhaps next time they will be more measured/kinder in their replies. Or do their own research before scoffing.

    The irony of a condescending arrogant post calling another post condescending and arrogant... :-) what are we like?


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    #144
    Airyfairy12
    Registered Users Posts: 3,390 ✭✭✭Airyfairy12


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    I'm very glad people ARE changing their minds, and I think it totally fair to remind someone who quoted me three weeks ago, and said they would laugh at it in a few weeks time, what they said. Perhaps next time they will be more measured/kinder in their replies. Or do their own research before scoffing.

    The irony of a condescending arrogant post calling another post condescending and arrogant... :-) what are we like?

    In fairness, a few weeks ago we expected schools to be reopening tomorrow. Media was suggesting COVID 19 was like a bad flu and nothing to worry about as long as everyone washed their hands properly and lessened visits to elderly relatives.

    Plenty of people were saying how we'd be laughing at all this in a few weeks. Keep in mind, 3 weeks ago we had 34 cases and they were all people who either traveled over seas from an effected area or were connected to someone who did. Of course people have changed their minds, why is that so surprising or something they should be bashed over the head with?


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    #145
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Airyfairy12 wrote: »
    In fairness, a few weeks ago we expected schools to be reopening tomorrow. Media was suggesting COVID 19 was like a bad flu and nothing to worry about as long as everyone washed their hands properly and lessened visits to elderly relatives.

    Plenty of people were saying how we'd be laughing at all this in a few weeks. Keep in mind, 3 weeks ago we had 34 cases and they were all people who either traveled over seas from an effected area or were connected to someone who did. Of course people have changed their minds, why is that so surprising or something they should be bashed over the head with?

    Because we were watching this with alarm since China in Jan.
    11 million people unable to leave their apartments for 2 months.
    Because the WHO were Calling for extreme aggression in managing the virus with the last few months.
    Because we were discussing the global ramifications on these threads for a long time.
    Because plenty of people were laughing and scoffing 3 weeks ago when it could have been controlled sooner.
    Because if 'people' had only educated themselves and actually READ the thread instead of scoffing we wouldn't be shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
    Because now frontline health workers are in danger because 'people' 3 weeks ago laughed and went to the pub instead of isolating.
    ( we were on thread 3 at that stage there is no excuse for ignorance).

    Yes, it's good that 'people' change their mind.
    Pity they didn't do it sooner.


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    #146
    jimmyrustle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭jimmyrustle


    J_1980 wrote: »
    All of Europe expects the same “European response” which translates to:
    “Germany pays”
    Are you surprised they don’t like it?

    “European solidarity “ is always a pure one-way money transfer. Not everyone is as stupid as the Irish and continues alimenting lifetime wasters.

    LOL. You talk some scutter. Germany loves handing out free stuff to the right people.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/most-germany-migrants-fail-to-get-jobs-unemployment/


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    #147
    Gael23
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    A deep recession follows. Severe enough that the only way out will be to print money


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    #148
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    Gael23 wrote: »
    A deep recession follows. Severe enough that the only way out will be to print money


    If as you say print money, who picks up the tab?
    As a country i doubt we can...


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    #149
    Gael23
    Registered Users Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    maestroamado wrote: »
    If as you say print money, who picks up the tab?
    As a country i doubt we can...

    No through the ECB for the EU as a whole. There’s no way this can be funded through existing resources


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    #150
    snoopboggybog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-could-contract-by-13-if-shutdown-lasts-until-august-1.4215802?fbclid=IwAR2A7zGuJ4Qi9IXVyNgHzT_xwK7zBahFECG3V32_yZODaHDJ-CEy4auZw4s

    Intertsting article, unfortunaly don't think their wrong. Up to 315,000 will lose their jobs.


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    #151
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    J_1980 wrote: »
    All of Europe expects the same “European response” which translates to:
    “Germany pays”
    Are you surprised they don’t like it?

    “European solidarity “ is always a pure one-way money transfer. Not everyone is as stupid as the Irish and continues alimenting lifetime wasters.

    Nobody is asking Germany to pay anything. In fact Germany paid nothing last time as far as I can see; quite the opposite, by bailing out the banks here Ireland bailed out the creditors of those banks. And German banks are still in trouble.

    What is needed is a proper EU zone response, start the printing presses.


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