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What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

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12467…32

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    #92
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Tesla3 wrote: »
    There will be a bill at the end of this!

    The wealthy will not want to pay it

    Cuts in our social wave and protection should be resisted as we will all then be aware how important health and social protection is when we realise d how close to poverty we all all

    Increase in taxes for the middle to high earners will be on the cards.....

    Will we shape a new Ireland at the end of will it be business as usual?

    another opportunity to overhault the welfare state. End the poverty traps, the xmas bonus etc the entire farce. Implement a system like many other countries, what you get out, is based on what you pay in. Giving away social housing for free is another morally corrupt disgrace, while the working poor paying for this, not only pay for it all, live in kips and or pay extortionate rents... :rolleyes:


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    #93
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    Fred Cryton wrote: »
    Big bounce back in second half of year.

    There are still around 2 million in work, presumably earning the same amount in March as in February.

    By taking these measures, the government has essentially forced those 2 million workers to save cash like they've never saved before. Within 3-4 months, there will be an absolute tsunami of cash ready to be unleashed into the economy. Think of the number of people dining out, in pubs and taking holidays/hotel breaks later in the year.

    This is very different to '08. I still think there's a chance the Irish economy will have overall positive growth in 2020, such will be the comeback in spending in Q3 and Q4.


    Very naive and borderline line deluded thinking here, i can see your school of thought but here is a few reasons why that will not happen:

    * This is just the beginning and within the span of two weeks we have gone from full employment to > 15% unemployed. This will number will go higher and could hit 30% within weeks.

    You are forgetting the biggest influence in economics, human nature. Right now there is an all time fear in the air. Fear leads to hoarding, anyone who is working will likely hoard even after whenever this ends:

    * Many of these temporary lay offs will become permanent as demand will not be there, thus promoting more fear and hoarding. Add in the rumors of lay offs etc and this will increase hoarding.

    * Any surplus money will be spent on essentials.

    * Most online purchases will be via the likes of Amazon, crushing some SMEs.

    * Companies will use this as an opportunity to cut the fat and not increase pay and potentially reducing pay, leading to further fear ie hoarding.

    The United States only answer to this is a stimulus package giving citizens money to spend. You will see this fail due to the above.

    I hope i am wrong


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    #94
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Yurt! wrote: »
    Haven't done the sums, but I'd wager the vaunted rainy day fund will be fully wiped out in the next few weeks with the income supports announced.

    All eyes will now be on Europe and if bloc bond issuance will proceed. Two sides are now clearly forming. We'll see what European solidarity is made of in the next few months.


    Five more Countries join Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and others, in calling for coronabonds: the three Baltics, Slovakia and Cyprus.
    It is a total of 14 Countries now pushing for this.
    On the other side: Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
    Surely Germany can change their position in the face of this crisis.
    It risks losing its main market.


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    #95
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    another opportunity to overhault the welfare state. End the poverty traps, the xmas bonus etc the entire farce. Implement a system like many other countries, what you get out, is based on what you pay in. Giving away social housing for free is another morally corrupt disgrace, while the working poor paying for this, not only pay for it all, live in kips and or pay extortionate rents... :rolleyes:


    Absolutely agree, start at the top and we likely have about 60 TD.
    Then our leaders can lead by example...


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    #96
    J_1980
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭J_1980


    otnomart wrote: »
    Five more Countries join Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and others, in calling for coronabonds: the three Baltics, Slovakia and Cyprus.
    It is a total of 14 Countries now pushing for this.
    On the other side: Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
    Surely Germany can change their position in the face of this crisis.
    It risks losing its main market.

    Surprise surprise, The 3 countries paying for all the left/populist left nonsense are against it.
    Germany wont change their position on the strings attached.

    It’s a lot easier to convince disgusting left governed leeches of joint debt than the net payers.


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    #97
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    ITman88 wrote: »
    I do hope you are right, but it’s foreign investment only here due to a low corporate tax rate.
    That is the only reason they are based in Ireland

    Why don’t we make our own people like Larry Goodman , Denis o brien , JP and others pay tax in Ireland rather than them using Luxembourg, Maltese or Switzerland addresses .
    It’s easy for Larry Goodman own our hospitals when he refuses to pay Irish tax .


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    #98
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    J_1980 wrote: »
    Surprise surprise, The 3 countries paying for all the left/populist left nonsense are against it.
    Germany wont change their position on the strings attached.

    It’s a lot easier to convince disgusting left governed leeches of joint debt than the net payers.


    Sorry but Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy are all net payers into the EU.


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    #99
    J_1980
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭J_1980


    otnomart wrote: »
    Sorry but Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Italy are all net payers into the EU.

    It’s not about paying into the EU budget.

    It’s about
    1)who benefits from whose credit spread(someone pays and someone benefits)
    2)who wants this so desperate instead of using ESM funds (410bn available) that do come with conditions

    Its all left wing governments: stealing from Pablo to give to Jose. And when you expectedly run out of Pablos then you pick Peter’s pocket.
    Irish spongers are obviously at the forefront: free gaffs and the Germans guarantee the debt and are on the hook when it all goes pear shaped again.

    There is ENOGH money in the ESM (410bn), use that!!!

    Outside of city state Luxembourg all other have perilous finances in that list if you add 20% debt/GDP. All run into the ground by the left in boom times. Serves its people right to tighten the belt :)
    Most of these countries were already failed states before Corona. This won’t be temporary, at some point you just have to admit they’re bankrupt and need some serious reforms. Eurobonds will put zero pressure on them to do that.


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    #100
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,145 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yurt! wrote: »
    All he has to say is waster this, waster that. Everyone's a waster and that's why we have unaffordable property, rents and high taxes. The reality is Ireland has one of the most economically productive populations in the world, with a very small cohort of long term unemployed.

    We do have very high rates of economic inactivity.

    Our employment rates are not high, they are about average, maybe 10-12 countries have higher employment rates.

    Mind you, this could be a reflection of our social choices.

    Yes, correct, the "wasters" don't cause the very high property costs.


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    #101
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    another opportunity to overhault the welfare state. End the poverty traps, the xmas bonus etc the entire farce. Implement a system like many other countries, what you get out, is based on what you pay in. Giving away social housing for free is another morally corrupt disgrace, while the working poor paying for this, not only pay for it all, live in kips and or pay extortionate rents... :rolleyes:

    Any link to these "free" social houses?

    Thanks


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    #102
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,268 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Any link to these "free" social houses?

    Thanks

    If you are in receipt of the dole and use that money to pay for your social house that is free.

    As in you haven't earned or done anything to contribute to you having a house to stay in.


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    #103
    snoopboggybog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Any link to these "free" social houses?

    Thanks

    Sorry but if your paying 50 euro out of your free dole money a week then its a free house. Even if your just working part time and paying 200 a month its still a free house. Many families are paying 1200 to rent a house as they are working.

    Back on topic anyway. I think many people won't have a job to return to.

    Can't see restaurants picking up again for a long long time and most will be forced to shut for good or until the tourist industry picks up again.

    Most Bars will lay off their weekend staff and owners will run it themselves.

    House prices will drop.

    Small non-chain shops will be forced to close.

    Hotels will be forced to lay off staff long term.


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    #104
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    otnomart wrote: »
    Five more Countries join Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and others, in calling for coronabonds: the three Baltics, Slovakia and Cyprus.
    It is a total of 14 Countries now pushing for this.
    On the other side: Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
    Surely Germany can change their position in the face of this crisis.
    It risks losing its main market.


    The problem Germany have is their economy is largely built on Engineering and the motor trade. This market has being re-focusing because of the environment.
    Now the spending on cars and toys be depleted, i think they take a bigger hit than most of Europe.
    What kindof reserve fund is there in Europe?


    We don't seem to have any reserve fund, we did not learn any lessons from what happened 10 years ago as every time there is a problem we go running to EU.
    I am not talking about this as this is "exceptional" but for the flooding the farmers, the closure of the bogs recently.
    Can we do anything ourselves?


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    #105
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    High unemployment ...fewer businesses many will have gone under ...prices will be higher due to an inability to meet demands unless they introduce price control which they should imo.


    Also Brexit is coming.


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    #106
    irishgeo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,396 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    murphyebass wrote: »
    When we get all that money apple owes us we’ll be grand sure.

    It's not all ours.


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    #107
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    If you are in receipt of the dole and use that money to pay for your social house that is free.

    As in you haven't earned or done anything to contribute to you having a house to stay in.

    I would be glad to be corrected on this,but deos the state not retain ownership of said social houses??


    And by common sense calling them free/give away is completly factually incorrect,dumbed down, misleading info??? (assuming my understanding is true?)


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    #108
    pjohnson
    Registered Users Posts: 23,298 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    snoopboggybog wrote: »
    Sorry but if your paying 50 euro out of your free dole money a week then its a free house. Even if your just working part time and paying 200 a month its still a free house. Many families are paying 1200 to rent a house as they are working.

    Back on topic anyway. I think many people won't have a job to return to.

    Can't see restaurants picking up again for a long long time and most will be forced to shut for good or until the tourist industry picks up again.

    Most Bars will lay off their weekend staff and owners will run it themselves.

    House prices will drop.

    Small non-chain shops will be forced to close.

    Hotels will be forced to lay off staff long term.

    House price dropping is good. Also rents should drop unless we let AirB&B return to its cancerous pre-crisis level. I think everyone knew AirB&B was a problem but I dont think anyone knew the size of it.


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    #109
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    otnomart wrote: »
    Five more Countries join Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and others, in calling for coronabonds: the three Baltics, Slovakia and Cyprus.
    It is a total of 14 Countries now pushing for this.
    On the other side: Netherlands, Austria and Germany.
    Surely Germany can change their position in the face of this crisis.
    It risks losing its main market.

    Let's be clear on Germany,they did not say no to the coronabinds,they said no to unlimited conorabonds , this is still open for negotiation and currently is been negotiated,
    Germany's main sticking point on this is when to issue the sale of the Bond's.
    Germany wants to issue them when restrictions are to be eased in Europe ,this would entail a quicker jump start to the EU economy.
    Where as the other member states want immediate bond sales


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    #110
    reg114
    Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭reg114


    Christine Lagarde of the IMF said this week that the world is already in recession. In the run up to the Corona crisis, several countries such as Germany and the UK were teetering on the brink of recession anyway. Lagarde added the economic shock arising from the current pandemic would be more severe than the financial crisis of 2008.

    Even with financial stimulus you will not see consumers spending returning to the levels they were at even several weeks ago, because people will still be recovering from the shock of losing their job, or reduced wages. There will be a portion of businesses that will not reopen. Businesses that do may reopen with fewer staff to cover losses.

    Tradesmen who had been up to their eyes as people sought to upgrade their houses will lose out. The tourism sector will be badly hit with tourism from Europe , UK and the US completely being wiped out for the remainder of 2020. Tourism employs 250,000 people in this country. The only upside is that Irish people will be forced to staycation, as they wont be travelling abroad any time soon, so this might help to offset the losses.

    Foreign nationals especially those here on student visas like the indians, pakistanis and brazilians will most probably be forced to go home as the gig economy dries up. As a result you will see a freeing up of much of the rental accommodation and a dropping of rental prices. The 5000 air bnb properties will be absorbed into the rental market in Dublin again because tourism will be non existent, further reducing the price of rents.

    Sales of new cars will fall off a cliff, property prices will drop, and the economy will have contracted by about 5%. The esri suggested a 7 % drop if the restrictions continue for 12 weeks, youd really hope that would not be the case.

    I agree with the call for the Irish gov to drop the legal case fighting the billions Apple owe us, it is money that will be badly needed.

    Capital projects will be all but frozen, this applies especially to metro north which will never see the light of day now.


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    #111
    reg114
    Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭reg114


    pjohnson wrote: »
    House price dropping is good. Also rents should drop unless we let AirB&B return to its cancerous pre-crisis level. I think everyone knew AirB&B was a problem but I dont think anyone knew the size of it.

    Air bnb will probably fold their Dublin offices, as there will be zero tourists visiting Ireland for the remainder of this year at best.


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    #112
    J_1980
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭J_1980


    reg114 wrote: »
    Christine Lagarde of the IMF said this week that the world is already in recession. In the run up to the Corona crisis, several countries such as Germany and the UK were teetering on the brink of recession anyway. Lagarde added the economic shock arising from the current pandemic would be more severe than the financial crisis of 2008.

    Even with financial stimulus you will not see consumers spending returning to the levels they were at even several weeks ago, because people will still be recovering from the shock of losing their job, or reduced wages. There will be a portion of businesses that will not reopen. Businesses that do may reopen with fewer staff to cover losses.

    Tradesmen who had been up to their eyes as people sought to upgrade their houses will lose out. The tourism sector will be badly hit with tourism from Europe , UK and the US completely being wiped out for the remainder of 2020. Tourism employs 250,000 people in this country. The only upside is that Irish people will be forced to staycation, as they wont be travelling abroad any time soon, so this might help to offset the losses.

    Foreign nationals especially those here on student visas like the indians, pakistanis and brazilians will most probably be forced to go home as the gig economy dries up. As a result you will see a freeing up of much of the rental accommodation and a dropping of rental prices. The 5000 air bnb properties will be absorbed into the rental market in Dublin again because tourism will be non existent, further reducing the price of rents.

    Sales of new cars will fall off a cliff, property prices will drop, and the economy will have contracted by about 5%. The esri suggested a 7 % drop if the restrictions continue for 12 weeks, youd really hope that would not be the case.

    I agree with the call for the Irish gov to drop the legal case fighting the billions Apple owe us, it is money that will be badly needed.

    Capital projects will be all but frozen, this applies especially to metro north which will never see the light of day now.

    The only real casualty is tourism and hospitality. Trades will see giant pent up demand, and the students will be back once this is over.


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    #113
    jimmyrustle
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭jimmyrustle


    reg114 wrote: »

    Foreign nationals especially those here on student visas like the indians, pakistanis and brazilians will most probably be forced to go home as the gig economy dries up. As a result you will see a freeing up of much of the rental accommodation and a dropping of rental prices. T

    .


    I just can't understand this one.

    We just had an election, and one of the prominent drums banged by everyone from establishment to hard left parties was the need to provide affordable rental properties.

    Not a single one mentioned that our migration policy, be it a bottomless pit of student visas for sale or our open door with the EU, just might be making rental properties unaffordable.

    It's almost as if some in these parties might have realised this was the case, seeing as you would need a skill level of Senior Infants maths to work out that pouring more people into a city with an either stagnant, barely growing or even declining availability of rental properties would raise the cost of renting such properites, but that people like Mary Lou, Richard Boyd Barrett, Ruth Coppinger and others who claim to care about resolving the crisis really couldn't give a shiny ****e, because they were too gutless to call it out.

    Thankfully Coppinger lost her seat primarily over her aloofness over an immigration related housing issue in her own back yard, her name blackened among the cohort in D15 who would normally vote for her.

    We keep hearing all these cries from the left that we can't go back to how we were- that an emergency has pushed the government into making provisions on rent controls, social welfare and healthcare recruitment that they previously argued were out of their remit, therefore this should be the new normal (ignorant, of course, of how much debt this will get us into, but that's socialists for ya)

    I wonder will they make a similar call on migration, that the old system was not working.

    Don't hold your breath.

    Migration is welcome, and needed. But at controlled numbers and involving individuals that for the most part have no negative impact on the finances of the natives of the host nation.


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    #114
    snoopboggybog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭snoopboggybog


    gandalfio wrote: »
    Why can't we use the 13 billion Google owe us to balance the books?

    Because they'll feck off somewhere else. They employ 8000 in Ireland.


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    #115
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    snoopboggybog wrote: »
    Because they'll feck off somewhere else. They employ 8000 in Ireland.


    Its frightening they have so much power over our economy.
    Google manufacture nothing and could operate anywhere i think.


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    #116
    lalababa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,727 ✭✭✭lalababa


    I can't see non Irish workers and non Irish seasonal workers going home when they can get 200 or 350 a week.


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    #117
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    snoopboggybog wrote: »
    Sorry but if your paying 50 euro out of your free dole money a week then its a free house. Even if your just working part time and paying 200 a month its still a free house. Many families are paying 1200 to rent a house as they are working.

    Back on topic anyway. I think many people won't have a job to return to.

    Can't see restaurants picking up again for a long long time and most will be forced to shut for good or until the tourist industry picks up again.

    Most Bars will lay off their weekend staff and owners will run it themselves.

    House prices will drop.

    Small non-chain shops will be forced to close.

    Hotels will be forced to lay off staff long term.

    Agreed with all of the above. I would add though that House prices will CRASH


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    #118
    J_1980
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭J_1980


    maestroamado wrote: »
    Its frightening they have so much power over our economy.
    Google manufacture nothing and could operate anywhere i think.

    What’s frightening about that? They bring the jobs and loads of tax revenue (also on incomes taxes of the employees) in return for fair stable treatment.

    What you want to happen? Force them to stay here at gunpoint and fleece their employees at 60% taxation?
    You can stick you SinnFein Stalinism where the sun never shines.


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    #119
    enricoh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭enricoh


    No let up in spending at the moment for the foreva home brigade anyway. On the front page of the Sunday times Dublin city council have signed leases on 200 apartments in the last week alone!


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    #120
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    I hope they were all airbnb properties.


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    #121
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    maestroamado wrote: »
    Its frightening they have so much power over our economy.
    Google manufacture nothing and could operate anywhere i think.

    Its Apple that owe us the 13Bn. Of course you could argue that that is the EU overstretching its remit.


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