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Winter 2011/2012

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Comments

  • #1002
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Going to put my head on the line.

    As i have watched the charts for the last 5 years or so.

    So i think i have some idea when i spot a changing signal.

    I think that there is a strong likelihood we will get a cold outbreak from the north and east from November 20th onwards. At this moment i have no real grasp on the duration of any cold incursion.

    I am suggesting a significant cold spell to begin around November 18th - 24th and last for at least 5-7 days.

    I tip my hat to you Sir !

    180156.png

    180157.png


  • #1003
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Going to put my head on the line.

    As i have watched the charts for the last 5 years or so.

    So i think i have some idea when i spot a changing signal.

    I think that there is a strong likelihood we will get a cold outbreak from the north and east from November 20th onwards. At this moment i have no real grasp on the duration of any cold incursion.

    I am suggesting a significant cold spell to begin around November 18th - 24th and last for at least 5-7 days.

    Well Roger J Smith is of the same view judging by his latest update on Netweather. Now if we could just fast forward a few weeks to see...


  • #1004
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I know what I posted is way way out in FI but at least its a trend , not too different from last year too.


    Quick question whats the best site for getting Last years charts on


  • #1005
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes MT is sticking to his guns.Probably won't be any major cold though till the New Year.


  • #1006
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Winter threads have exploded the last few days, Nice to see.


  • #1007
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I just graphed my morning temperatures for October and comparing to last year I was surprised with the results.

    The overall look shows a warm start to the month but by the end 2009 was warmer but still far warmer than 2010 and 23 in 2009.

    There was 21 wet days in the month compared to 8 last year. There was 0 frost days in October 2011 and 4 in 2010 and 1 in 2009.


  • #1008
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Lucreto wrote: »
    I just graphed my morning temperatures for October and comparing to last year I was surprised with the results.

    The overall look shows a warm start to the month but by the end 2009 was warmer but still far warmer than 2010 and 23 in 2009.

    There was 21 wet days in the month compared to 8 last year. There was 0 frost days in October 2011 and 4 in 2010 and 1 in 2009.

    Where do you live?
    By mid November last year I remember having a good few nights frost behind me already in Donegal, haven't had any yet really, just one occasion last week the temp went down to 1c and I wasn't awake to see if there was any frost.


  • #1009
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    I know what I posted is way way out in FI but at least its a trend , not too different from last year too.


    Quick question whats the best site for getting Last years charts on
    try this, just pick your date.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm


  • #1010
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    We are beginning to see signs of the early stages of height rises to our North reflected in the models in the 7 - 14 day period indicating that a new phase in the MJO is imminent. The chances of colder or much colder weather toward the end of the month are increasing but it's a long way off yet. I do think things will get "interesting" in the second half of the month. Fingers crossed anyway.


  • #1011
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    try this, just pick your date.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm

    Theyre available on meteociel as well, just click on archives along the top and pick your date. For some reason the GFS charts dont seem to be working right now but ECM and the rest are all there as well

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&archive=1


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  • #1012
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ...


  • #1013
    DominoDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    Lots of winter "Love !" :D in After Hours for the Weather Forum.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056440597

    Yesterday, 21:33 #35
    starbelgrade
    I was bored the other night & had a read of the Weather Forum.

    The weather nerds are practically **** themselves silly at the thought of another **** winter.


  • #1014
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    JOE BASTARDI
    LOOK OUT EUROPE
    Heh Europe,,, looks like blocking may be rocking early this year. Get the winter woolies ready for possible December to remember

    NAO may go negative for December, meaning 3rd cold one in row for Europe, US east and far east ( though from different source)


  • #1015
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    DominoDub wrote: »
    Lots of winter "Love !" :D in After Hours for the Weather Forum.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056440597

    Yesterday, 21:33 #35
    starbelgrade


    Interestingly though, more than half want it, a gpood few said they'll put up with it and only 35% said they hate it!! Have the boards weather forum users been hyjacking this poll?!!!


  • #1016
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Those After hour fella's are right, us 'nerds' need to discuss more productive things like in the AH section.

    So lads, where does your favorite kebab come from?? :rolleyes:


  • #1017
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Those After hour fella's are right, us 'nerds' need to discuss more productive things like in the AH section.

    So lads, where does your favorite kebab come from?? :rolleyes:

    Lapland, cause there is SNOW there :D


  • #1018
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    180187.JPG


    While everything is still going to plan i just want to highlight to those fairly new here that in the image it shows lots of warm air is being pumped into the Arctic because of high pressure blocking to our east and all the Atlantic lows not being able to beat it back.This set up can have serious implications down the road as it can eventually help to create high latitude blocking like we seen the last few years.So these upcoming winter cold spells really could have a fair bite in them.


  • #1019
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Those After hour fella's are right, us 'nerds' need to discuss more productive things like in the AH section.

    So lads, where does your favorite kebab come from?? :rolleyes:

    Cant stop laughing , BRILLIANT! hahahahaa :D


  • #1020
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Cant stop laughing , BRILLIANT! hahahahaa :D

    I should have said a pack of frozen kebabs from Iceland :o


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  • #1021
    YouTookMyName
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭YouTookMyName


    Lucreto wrote: »
    I just graphed my morning temperatures for October and comparing to last year I was surprised with the results.

    The overall look shows a warm start to the month but by the end 2009 was warmer but still far warmer than 2010 and 23 in 2009.

    There was 21 wet days in the month compared to 8 last year. There was 0 frost days in October 2011 and 4 in 2010 and 1 in 2009.

    October 2009 was a lovely month and the week before xmas and 2 weeks after were shite.


  • #1022
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Don't think I have ever been called a nerd before... oh the excitement of it all..:D.. mmmm maybe we could be boffin's instead? Enthusiasts, or, or, or, or Anoraks... although to be fair, if we get the snow that a large number of us seem to want, I don't think an anorak will suffice... might need snow jackets... :pac:


  • #1023
    DominoDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    I get asked in work all the time " Any Streamers Yet ? " :D


  • #1024
    Newtown90
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭Newtown90


    DominoDub wrote: »
    I get asked in work all the time " Any Streamers Yet ? " :D

    Haha good times watching this thread last year!

    Sign's on i failed an exam over it! lol

    Was worth it ;)

    Roll on the streamers :D:D:D


  • #1025
    starbelgrade
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,739 ✭✭✭✭starbelgrade


    How did I end up in the Weather forum? :confused:


  • #1026
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    How did I end up in the Weather forum? :confused:

    You fapped too much and hit the wrong link :D


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  • #1027
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,176 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Major Snow Not to Hit Ireland
    heard on the radio that they woz saying that net weather are saying we are going to get no prolonged snowy cold spells this Winter.

    what does you all think

    i think we have a fair chance of getting a decent spell of snow at some stage. they cant just dis it like that.

    bring it.


  • #1028
    lord lucan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    pauldry wrote: »
    Major Snow Not to Hit Ireland
    heard on the radio that they woz saying that net weather are saying we are going to get no prolonged snowy cold spells this Winter.

    what does you all think

    ZOMG!! Netweather are always wrong,they got the last 10 winters wrong,pay no attention to them.


    *************Enter previously unheard of weather prediction centre who predict epic snow***************

    ZOMG!!! They're always right,i trust their predictions with my life! Bring on the snow!


  • #1029
    Newtown90
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭Newtown90


    pauldry wrote: »
    Major Snow Not to Hit Ireland
    heard on the radio that they woz saying that net weather are saying we are going to get no prolonged snowy cold spells this Winter.

    what does you all think

    i think we have a fair chance of getting a decent spell of snow at some stage. they cant just dis it like that.

    bring it.

    Read that in the Star just there but I want a cold winter!

    So i'm holding on for hope!


  • #1030
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    How did I end up in the Weather forum? :confused:

    Your always here star, Admit it. :pac:


  • #1031
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,176 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Everyone always ends up on the weather forum its the only place to be


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  • #1032
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Current NAO Observation & 14 day Forecast... i like the increasing phase at the end , looks promising :)

    nao.mrf.gif

    And Monthly data from 2010 and current 2011 months
    2010
    -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85
    2011
    2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54


  • #1033
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    woah anything supporting a mild winter seems to be stomped out by now:p cant believe just how strong signs are looking now in favour of a cold winter. is there anything going against a cold winter at all?, and nearly all forecaster think itll be very cold, the charts ,factors everything seems to be inplace for a cold winter..never been so dead cert a winter will be very cold:D everythings looking good!


  • #1034
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    woah anything supporting a mild winter seems to be stomped out by now:p cant believe just how strong signs are looking now in favour of a cold winter. is there anything going against a cold winter at all?, and nearly all forecaster think itll be very cold, the charts ,factors everything seems to be inplace for a cold winter..never been so dead cert a winter will be very cold:D everythings looking good!

    Everything you said is whats going against it ;)

    When usually we are not expecting something good of the winter , it delivers , now that everyone is on board there can only be one outcome , a complete and utter failure of what the vast majority on people in here want myself included :D


  • #1035
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Everything you said is whats going against it ;)

    When usually we are not expecting something good of the winter , it delivers , now that everyone is on board there can only be one outcome , a complete and utter failure of what the vast majority on people in here want myself included :D

    Being from Newbridge I would expect you to see the wrost in everything !! :p:pac:


  • #1036
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Being from Newbridge I would expect you to see the wrost in everything !! :p:pac:

    We have the best of everything up there , we even have our own shoping centre :eek:

    Im not from the area , Im merely a blow in :)


  • #1037
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    This place is gone crazy lately, like you get when theres a storm or something!.


  • #1038
    4Sheets
    Closed Accounts Posts: 613 ✭✭✭4Sheets


    I did some searching for treatment for the snow obsessed folks on the forum but could find little information.. perhaps someone could set up a support group..

    http://qna.rediff.com/questions-and-answers/what-is-snowphilia-it-is-of-how-many-kinds/13508726/answers

    http://www.healthcaremagic.com/healthpage/symptoms-of-snowphilia


    as I said not much information regarding this life and forum destroying condition at all.
    :D


  • #1039
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    woah anything supporting a mild winter seems to be stomped out by now:p cant believe just how strong signs are looking now in favour of a cold winter. is there anything going against a cold winter at all?, and nearly all forecaster think itll be very cold, the charts ,factors everything seems to be inplace for a cold winter..never been so dead cert a winter will be very cold:D everythings looking good!

    I wouldn't be getting my hopes up yet.


  • #1040
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Derekon, if the cfs charts are right it will be unusually cold next October.
    While you may scoff at specualting about what the weather will be like in six months, it needs to be said the cfs charts were by and large correct about how this winter panned out.
    I remember the above post from back at the start of the year.
    So October turned out to be warmer than average Nacho. What exactly are CFS charts and are they used frequently in forecasting? They were obviously wrong about the October just passed.


  • #1041
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Pangea wrote: »
    I remember the above post from back at the start of the year.
    So October turned out to be warmer than average Nacho. What exactly are CFS charts and are they used frequently in forecasting? They were obviously wrong about the October just passed.

    This is what weather online have to say about it:
    weatheronline.co.uk wrote:
    The CFS model is different to any other operational weather forecasting model you will see on WeatherOnline.

    The systems works by taking reanalysis data (NCEP Reanalysis 2) and ocean conditions from GODAS (Global Ocean data Assimilation). Both of these data sets are for the previous day, and so you should be aware that before initialisation the data is already one day old.

    Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform.


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  • #1042
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    I remember the above post from back at the start of the year.
    So October turned out to be warmer than average Nacho. What exactly are CFS charts and are they used frequently in forecasting? They were obviously wrong about the October just passed.


    Yes. They get it right sometimes- as in last winter, but were obviously wrong about this past October being blocked.
    While weatheronline advises caution, you'll find quite a few long range forecasters use them as a guide when compiling a winter forecast.


  • #1043
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Today's developments are interesting.
    If you take the last 2years out of the equation height rises in Greenland during Nov are few and far between.
    Jet all over the place.
    Could history repeat itself??

    Doubt it, but worth watching! :)


  • #1044
    Conor30
    Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?


  • #1045
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Conor30 wrote: »
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?

    nah. he's a complete chancer :pac:


  • #1046
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    :pac::pac:


  • #1047
    Ahorseofaman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 269 ✭✭Ahorseofaman


    Conor30 wrote: »
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?
    A complete novice who sometimes guesses correctly.Ignore him.:D


  • #1048
    Derfil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Derfil


    Conor30 wrote: »
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?

    He's a genius :pac::pac::pac:


  • #1049
    Big Daddy Cool
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Conor30 wrote: »
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?

    have to agree with the above posts, he's a chancer and should be ignored, i prefer michael fish, way better then this guy o'donnell :D


  • #1050
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Conor30 wrote: »
    http://www.irishweatheronline.com/fo...and/41524.html

    What do people think of PETER O' DONNELL? Does he have much street cred?

    Ask him yourself: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/member.php?u=101703


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  • #1051
    ShawB
    Registered Users Posts: 30 ✭ShawB


    Too many mild days in october for my liking! Dunno if November is gonna fair much differently. I cant remember last week let alone last year. Fair play to people following the patterns! :pac: -1 leaving work last night at 12! had to DE-ICE the car.... DELIGHTED! :P


This discussion has been closed.
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