Winter 2011/2012

M.T. Cranium

Yep, would fully agree with all of the points including the more critical ones, although Fred aka BFTP has taken an unfair share of the blame on February. I had inconclusive looking output for the end of the winter last year and he was seeing 1942 as a good analogue (we collaborate on Net-weather because he has some similar research interests).

The post mortem already extensively done to death was that December was so exceptional that almost from a statistical basis alone there wasn't much left in the pipeline at that point. Note that it tried to turn cold again after the mid-January warmup, but that was a rather tame affair compared to December.

Anyway, there are different time scales that I try to study and forecast around, and you tend to get a blend of accuracy and random noise in this technique at its current state of development. I have the output and a first draft of the verbal equivalent ready for a few fellow weather nuts to look over and then we'll do a spot of editing, praying to the weather gods etc, and see how it all turns out.

Nothing subjective goes into this, I just crunch the numbers, imagine the pattern that must produce the numbers, and go from there. Not by nature a cold ramper, I called the mild January of 2008 on Net-weather when just about everyone else was saying cold because they saw a big cold high coming for the first three days. And that was entirely research based, I didn't have a hunch or a pain in my bunions (of course I'm not even there so that wouldn't really be a useful technique).

Could say that the forecast contains a lot of variety so if the winter turns out to be all cold, all mild or all anything else, it will by definition seem hit or miss. If it's variable and I get the timing details wrong, then the debate will turn to how useful or useless that outcome is. I think a forecast of variable spells has an economic utility regardless of what the order of play turns out to be. You can estimate how much road maintenance or disruption might be involved, how much you might pay for fuel, etc, in such a scenario, even if the details turn out scrambled, the totals or averages would be similar. So fingers crossed it will be variable and we'll have some clue what to expect in roughly the same order as reality. But it's looking like the sort of pattern that would be enormously difficult to "nail down" in great detail. Could also predict that many other voices will be heard and most of those will be saying coldest ever, ice age descending -- this tends to be a sort of blend of sincere belief based on theory, hope that you'll "knock one out of the park" and just plain old publicity seeking. My approach is to churn out the numbers and see what they suggest. If I ever do get that kind of output that flat-lines near record cold all the time, you may hear a faint shout from far out to the west.

Have been trying to back-cast to check the model on extreme cases in the past, but problem is a lot of the natural variations are just now getting into a second go-round in the long series and weren't there fifty to a hundred years ago from years that fell before the long data sets. So that limits the comparison, in fact it has been a lucky break for me that two rather big factors just came "on line" in their last appearance at the start of the data sets.

Anyway, I think we should do that winter seasonal forecast contest again and see what the group consensus looks like. Will set that up soon and run it to a mid-November deadline to get a good early call going. TBH, the best call for the winter could come from just about anyone and the trick over many years is to stay ahead of consensus in a field that everyone knows is just in its infancy compared to many other parts of meteorology and certainly "real" science where approximate predictions aren't even tolerated period (for example you don't want to send a space probe somewhere near Jupiter or Saturn and hope for the best). So of all people, I am very realistic about where long-range forecasting stands relative to other sciences. I think the general public are on to it as well.

touts

That has a feel and tone that leads me to forecast that many of the Ice Age Lovers are about to be disappointed....

Strangegravy

Mc Love wrote: »

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

Why would anyone actually wish for snow? Barring children, who just think it's fun no matter what, it's actually a huge inconvenience. It practically shut down the entire country last year and if nothing else, was pretty freaking dangerous. I know cold, wet and grey isn't fun but at least you can walk around (however uncomfortably) and driving doesn't become insanely dangerous.

Unless you lived in Limerick and didn't get any snow! Or not as much as the rest of the country!

Amen.. one snow shower where I live, at the end of January or start of Feb, gave us more snow than Nov/Dec put together.. we had the extreme cold bit no snow.

Even satellite pictures had us in green and rest of country in white... depressing!

davidsr20

Any chance of a little hint for this winter mt?

Mr Benevolent

davidsr20 wrote: »

Any chance of a little hint for this winter mt?

I'm sure he'll let us know soon enough.

Speak Now

davidsr20 wrote: »

Any chance of a little hint for this winter mt?

Confab wrote: »

I'm sure he'll let us know soon enough.

Tomorrow

Unlikely to be the day after...........

Pangea

touts wrote: »

That has a feel and tone that leads me to forecast that many of the Ice Age Lovers are about to be disappointed....

I get that feeling too, but remember last winter wasn't all cold either.
So maybe thats the line of thinking he is at.
(Me Clutching at straws here)

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Could say that the forecast contains a lot of variety so if the winter turns out to be all cold, all mild or all anything else, it will by definition seem hit or miss. .

delw

Pangea wrote: »

I get that feeling too, but remember last winter wasn't all cold either.
So maybe thats the line of thinking he is at.
(Me Clutching at straws here)

yeah get that feeling as well,back to some cold blasts rather than any length of cold

andre2010

I dont think MT was saying its gonna be mild etc, he was just saying that its very hard to predict and no matter what he predicts, its just a prediction, cannot guarantee anything.

Although in saying that. I know people working with Met Eireann and they have been hounded lately with these kind of requests. From what he says, they are predicting a cold winter but nothing along the lines of last year. Something to do with "northern block" . figure you guys will know what that is. Apparently its not going to be in the same position this year which will greatly affect ireland and more than likely we will be sheilded.

Although he says its also not as simple as just looking at one specific thing, loads of factors need to be included, but he doesnt think this year will be anyway as bad as last.

But i hope he is wrong and MT comes out with a forecast for us snow lovers.

NIALL D

it will be a strong depression if it turns out to be mostly mild in the forecast !!!

Rigador

Perhaps this has already been posted, but if not -

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/category/news/atmosphere/cold

It's dated yesterday but i've only just spotted it now. Not sure how reliable the source of the report is as I'm not familiar with who is who in the world of weather - but let's hope it's an accurate prediction

Iancar29

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

I rarely post here so I don't really think that'll matter to me or to the regular posters who do.

But I am curious as to why. I've assumed that it goes beyond just a personal preference and that there is a tangible reason behind this liking. It could just be a personal preference (rather like a taste in music), and that's fair enough (though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion) but assuming that you were as badly affected as everyone else was last year, would this not dent your desire for snow?

1- For Starters , PLease take away all the bad things it causes, ANY extreme weather can cause a number of problems for anyone . It Happens , and i'm sure nobody on here wishes the bad effects that it can cause upon anyone else. We all just get by as well as we can. Preparation is key to minimise such problems. For example, for this year at least on the front of stocks of grit , the NRA is more than prepared with triple amount of stock already for this winter if it proves to be as "bad" as lasts.

2- Its enjoyable , for most , going out in, that being with a child, a family member , a friend , or even a pet! Theres so much that can be done.

3- I personally think it heightens peoples spirits , it can be such a relaxing thing to watch or walk in. The really crisp clear and bright days it can bring can only contribute to that.

4- It brings people together , alot of the time family members have to stay in during snowy weather and yeah , for many that can lead to time well spent with others.

5. For people like me who love photography i think its one of the most spectacular scenes to capture , it brings an extra sense of "feel" to pictures which i love.

6. And for my last point .... IT BRINGS OUT THE KID INSIDE US ALL... Last winter i got a snowball thrown at me by my elderly neighbour, truly made me feel good! Ask anyone here how many times they would press the oul REFRESH BUTTON , thats our excitement , like kids coming back to us all .

SO ye , hope i answered most of your question for you



Snow Fanatic

Min

A varied winter is the best winter, I just want an early spring and for the milk lory to be able to come and collect the milk, so all the bad snow in Decmeber and gone by mid January please
Some sunscreen needed for St Patricks day and on would be good too.

The Spring this year was just marvelous.

DominoDub

andre2010

Rigador wrote: »

Perhaps this has already been posted, but if not -

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/category/news/atmosphere/cold

It's dated yesterday but i've only just spotted it now. Not sure how reliable the source of the report is as I'm not familiar with who is who in the world of weather - but let's hope it's an accurate prediction

Great article, so they are saying cold but not as severe as last year but very strong possibility of a lot of snow wuh hoo
Come on MT give us your predictions mate.

esposito

Personally, I would much rather most of the snow to fall around the Christmas period and for most of January and February. I don't care if we don't get any snow in November. I don't think I'll get much sleep tonight!

Rigador

esposito wrote: »

Personally, I would much rather most of the snow to fall around the Christmas period and for most of January and February. I don't care if we don't get any snow in November. I don't think I'll get much sleep tonight!

Same here - if we're to get any at all I would rather have it nearer Christmas and the few weeks following! Wait and see now - what's the bets after all this talk we won't get one single flake :rolleyes:

esposito

Rigador wrote: »

Same here - if we're to get any at all I would rather have it nearer Christmas and the few weeks following! Wait and see now - what's the bets after all this talk we won't get one single flake :rolleyes:

Ha, well there's a good chance the county of Cork won't get a single flake

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

6. And for my last point .... IT BRINGS OUT THE KID INSIDE US ALL... Last winter i got a snowball thrown at me by my elderly neighbour, truly made me feel good! Ask anyone here how many times they would press the oul REFRESH BUTTON , thats our excitement , like kids coming back to us all .

SO ye , hope i answered most of your question for you



Snow Fanatic

i dont think my F5 will survive another winter

Redsunset

No severe winter this year the med is too warm unlike the last few years where it clearly was showing cold anomaly.I posted bout this in last years winter outlook, as joe b was discussing how it was an indicator for upcoming winter.I'll post more on it later

rhonin

Hard to beat a dry, crisp frosty day. At least you can go out and have a walk. This mild muck we have now is bloody depressing. Roll on a proper winter with some snow and maybe one or two good aul storms
Oh yeah and some thunder snow!!

bb1234567

andre2010 wrote: »

Great article, so they are saying cold but not as severe as last year but very strong possibility of a lot of snow wuh hoo
Come on MT give us your predictions mate.

no when i read that iwo article i read it wrong too, i reread it and it said that blocking would occur but it wouldnt be as strong so it would confine blocking to uk and ireland instead of extending down to france and german and the rest of europe like last 2 years. so the blocking will reach us but not europe so still same blocking effects on ireland as last year so cold winter for us:D
the very cold temps will be confined to uk and ireland as blocking isnt strong enough to reach europe, blocking will still give ireland the very cold temps we expereienced last year

pauldry

Come on MT - Prediction better be right ......>>>>>>> No pressure then

We'r all waiting :D:D

Speak Now

pauldry wrote: »

Come on MT - Prediction better be right ......>>>>>>> No pressure then

We'r all waiting :D:D

Higher the pressure the better

andre2010

Well fingers crossed! For some reason though i dont think its going to happen this year. With all of these predictions etc, it leaves me to believe it wont happen. when have MET ever predicted anything correctly.

Plus the weather seems so very mild lately, i know it wasnt that cold last year before the cold spell, but it wasnt this humid right?

Unfortunately i feel that there are going to be a lot of very unhappy people come december, i know i will be one of them if it doesnt snow

Speak Now

andre2010 wrote: »

Well fingers crossed! For some reason though i dont think its going to happen this year. With all of these predictions etc, it leaves me to believe it wont happen. when have MET ever predicted anything correctly.

Plus the weather seems so very mild lately, i know it wasnt that cold last year before the cold spell, but it wasnt this humid right?

Unfortunately i feel that there are going to be a lot of very unhappy people come december, i know i will be one of them if it doesnt snow

If you mean Met Eireann then they get it right most of the time in fairness plus you wont find them giving any predictions over 7 days anyway.

opinion guy

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

If you mean Met Eireann then they get it right most of the time in fairness plus you wont find them giving any predictions over 7 days anyway.

Well you are never technically wrong when you say 'there may be sunny spells, with showers, gusting winds and a chance of snow' every day

fizzycyst

From the MET E monthly weather bulletin from October last year....

Unsettled weather at both the beginning and end of October brought spells of wet and windy weather,
but much of the month was dry and sunny. Temperatures were around two degrees higher than normal
during the first ten days, but much cooler weather developed subsequently, with severe frost in some
areas late in the month

............

Daily maximum values rose above 20°C in places on the 8th, the highest for October for between seven
and 13 years in places; in contrast, widespread ground frost developed after mid-month, with particularly
low air and ground temperatures recorded in eastern and midland areas on the 25th. Sunshine totals for
the month were well above normal everywhere, with around 40% more sunshine than normal generally;
it was the sunniest October for more than 40 years at several stations.

Seems October last year was quite warm too, not sure if that will bear any reflection on this year.....hopefully

Iancar29

fizzycyst wrote: »

From the MET E monthly weather bulletin from October last year....



............




Seems October last year was quite warm too, not sure if that will bear any reflection on this year.....hopefully

Great spot!... It could WELL turn out VERY similar for this month toO!

NIALL D

Iancar29 wrote: »

Great spot!... It could WELL turn out VERY similar for this month toO!

hopefully , its looking good , that this october an october 2010 were fairly similar...
now we jus need mt on our side to the deliver the good news that there will be at least a few decent snowfall events this winter... (hopefully at least a month of lying snow :eek::))

i think we will defo get a decent snowy winter !!!