Winter 2011/2012

Rigador

eskimocat wrote: »

Welcome Rigador... glad the forum has another snowbie ****** Enjoy !

Thanks eskimokat!! Hopefully this thread will become a lot busier very soon - LOVE LOVE LOVE snow!! I know it causes major inconvenience's for some - and for me it does also, to an extent - but I choose to embrace it Now't anyone can do when it starts to fall so might aswell enjoy it

Can't wait for this year's instalment - I can feel it in my waters

Mr Benevolent

Rigador wrote: »

Can't wait for this year's instalment - I can feel it in my waters

Snow in your waters? Ok, but remember - don't eat yellow snow.

Rigador

Confab wrote: »

Snow in your waters? Ok, but remember - don't eat yellow snow.

joe199

excitments starting to build now that theres a threath started on our first possible coldish snap, really hope its a snowy one this year, couldnt deal with a mild rainy winter after the past couple of winters wev been threathed to

Tazio

Have to agree with ye above....

A blast of snow is welcome.... Even though getting feed to livestock can be a bit of a pain..... Naaawww bring on the snow...


There are roses and trees blooming/budding near me again recently.... whats all that about??

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have a winter forecast basically "sketched out" from the research analysis and the plan is to include it with the daily forecast on Thursday 13th.

No sneak previews, but I promise it won't be a "mild southwesterly" all winter prediction.

Increased solar activity in recent months factors into the research model but the basic principle here is that milder long-term trends normally follow several years of higher than normal activity. Some of the coldest winters have actually come during the "ramp up" period of active solar cycles, and with the recent four year solar quiet spell, this developing cycle reminds me more of a low to moderate peak in the Dalton or the late 19th century periods. Those were epic times for cold winters whether the sun was slightly active or not.

But even 1947, one of the most prolific of cold snowy winters, came just before a very active peak that spanned roughly 1947 to 1950. Other examples of cold winters that came just before, or at, solar max include 1917, 1979 and 1838. Probably 1987 could also be considered as solar activity was beginning to "turn on" again that year. The very high peak of 1957-58 was preceded by a cold winter in 1956 when the Sun was getting towards the level of activity normally seen in less notable cycles. So all in all, the "concept" of cold winters requiring quiet sun can rather easily be disproven. It's really just the background colder averages of the Maunder and Dalton periods that led to this concept in the first place. There's something to be said for the more refined concept that cold winters seem to fall more frequiently than random during periods of increasing solar activity, while mild winters seem to cluster on the other side of the roller coaster. But these are far from inflexible rules, just tendencies that I've spotted in my data analysis.

In any case, the physical cause and effect that relates weather patterns to solar activity must be more complicated than just signal and response because different regions display different signatures relative to solar activity and yet we're all subject to the same changes in the incoming solar radiation (which tends to be somewhat greater during active solar periods -- despite the cooler nature of sunspots themselves, the Sun belts out more radiation during its active phases).

If I can find some good graphs to illustrate, I may return to this discussion with those in a day or two, at the moment my own research material is on a computer not connected to this internet computer and I would need to copy the graphs I can see in my "office" here most probably by hand as the two machines don't connect very easily (this will gradually cease to be a problem because the data base itself has been transferred).

Thanks for the note MT - I am sure a lot of us will be eagerly awaiting your winter forecast 2011-2012 for Ireland this Thursday. Your forecast for December 2010 was spot on.

I am sure a lot of snow lovers (including me) will take a wee bit of hope from the line in your post that confirmed you don't think it will be a mild southwesterly all winter!

Madpaddy79

Can anyone find MT's winter forecast 2010/11? Unable to find in forecast.

bb1234567

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Can anyone find MT's winter forecast 2010/11? Unable to find in forecast.

he says hes going to release it this thursday:) fingers crossed for cold !

Madpaddy79

bb1234567 wrote: »

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Can anyone find MT's winter forecast 2010/11? Unable to find in forecast.

he says hes going to release it this thursday:) fingers crossed for cold !

Last years forecast!

ShawB

Ah lads I know some of yee don't like snow and its trouble and all the rest for some folk! But as many people have said I would take the crisp snow days before those windy wet dull ones anyday! :rolleyes:

Redsunset

LAST YEARS WINTER FORECAST FROM MT
Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.


Some points that were bang on.
Higher than normal snowall amounts...

with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many...

I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned...

I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

Carsinian Thau

Why would anyone actually wish for snow? Barring children, who just think it's fun no matter what, it's actually a huge inconvenience. It practically shut down the entire country last year and if nothing else, was pretty freaking dangerous. I know cold, wet and grey isn't fun but at least you can walk around (however uncomfortably) and driving doesn't become insanely dangerous.

Lucreto

I love snow. One of the advantages of it is between the snow showers the sun is out and the skies are clear. I think we had more sun last December than most of July.:D

patneve2

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

Why would anyone actually wish for snow? Barring children, who just think it's fun no matter what, it's actually a huge inconvenience. It practically shut down the entire country last year and if nothing else, was pretty freaking dangerous. I know cold, wet and grey isn't fun but at least you can walk around (however uncomfortably) and driving doesn't become insanely dangerous.

i sense you won't be too popular here

NIALL D

patneve2 wrote: »

i sense you won't be too popular here

agree ,

wishing for snow here :pac:

Carsinian Thau

patneve2 wrote: »

i sense you won't be too popular here

NIALL D wrote: »

agree ,

wishing for snow here :pac:

I rarely post here so I don't really think that'll matter to me or to the regular posters who do.

But I stand by my original question.
I dislike snow (intensely). That's my viewpoint.
A lot of people like it. That's their's.

But I am curious as to why. I've assumed that it goes beyond just a personal preference and that there is a tangible reason behind this liking. It could just be a personal preference (rather like a taste in music), and that's fair enough (though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion) but assuming that you were as badly affected as everyone else was last year, would this not dent your desire for snow?

Harps

Well, this is a weather forum so naturally people on here have an interest in more extreme weather that the general public. We don't get much interesting weather for most of the year so when winter comes around we like to see something a bit different

Theres also the fact that it looks great, gives us a totally different landscape for a few days and brightens up the otherwise dark and depressing days of mid-winter.

Obviously it inconveniences us as much as anyone but for me at least, I can live with the inconvenience and far prefer it to the usual wet and grey winters we get.

JanuarySnowstor

Am I being rude by suggesting MT's forecast for Jan and Feb of last Winter were totally out ?
Were both months not more or less snowless ??

Now i'm all for guys who stick their neck out and make lrf's but fair is fair and apart from December the forecast had more inaccuracies than accuracies

Madpaddy79

redsunset wrote: »

[SIZE="5"]LAST YEARS[/SIZE] WINTER FORECAST FROM MT
Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.


Some points that were bang on.
Higher than normal snowall amounts...

with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many...

I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned...

I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

Thank you. Very interesting to read back, he got so much of it correct. Truely amazing.

Bring on Thursday's forecast.

patneve2

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

I rarely post here so I don't really think that'll matter to me or to the regular posters who do.

But I stand by my original question.
I dislike snow (intensely). That's my viewpoint.
A lot of people like it. That's their's.

But I am curious as to why. I've assumed that it goes beyond just a personal preference and that there is a tangible reason behind this liking. It could just be a personal preference (rather like a taste in music), and that's fair enough (though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion) but assuming that you were as badly affected as everyone else was last year, would this not dent your desire for snow?

Fortunately I wasn't badly affected last year (I don't drive and I live on a rail line), but I can see how it was a horrible nuisance for many people: the elderly, the people who need their cars on a daily basis, and the homeless.

And yeah, we can call it an interest/passion. But seriously, when you write "though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion" you kind of make me a bit angry Not to offend you or anything, but you are evidently quite ignorant in the subject (as i am surely ignorant in subjects that interest you)...when you have a passion it can be an endless source of discussion....discussing weather charts that promise snow/exciting weather, discussing snow accumulations, discussing snow events as they develop (or any weather event for that matter), checking synoptic charts to see the if the conditions are right...

I'm just going to call it the child that never left me

And by the way this has been done to death...

novarock

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Am I being rude by suggesting MT's forecast for Jan and Feb of last Winter were totally out ?
Were both months not more or less snowless ??

Now i'm all for guys who stick their neck out and make lrf's but fair is fair and apart from December the forecast had more inaccuracies than accuracies

I wouldnt say rude, but the man himself would tell you that the longer out you go, the higher the probability that you are going to be wrong. Although he predicted that chaotic November snow about three - four weeks before met eireann.

bb1234567

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

I rarely post here so I don't really think that'll matter to me or to the regular posters who do.

But I stand by my original question.
I dislike snow (intensely). That's my viewpoint.
A lot of people like it. That's their's.

But I am curious as to why. I've assumed that it goes beyond just a personal preference and that there is a tangible reason behind this liking. It could just be a personal preference (rather like a taste in music), and that's fair enough (though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion) but assuming that you were as badly affected as everyone else was last year, would this not dent your desire for snow?

loved your post its really funny,you must really ahte snow!! haha well..
I love the snow, I love how it looks and when it falls and I love to think i live in canade:D i love the way its so cosy inside when you come inside and having hot chocolates. i love the way you have to put on loads of clothes to go outside. i lovemissing school. i love sledding and building snowmen and snowball fights :L sorry to say this but i LOVE the chaos, nobody can think straight,daily routines messed up,nobody leaves the house, school isnt on,everybody acts as if its the end of the world and nobody talks about anything but the snow, i love nobody driving anywhere and nobody thinking about anything but the snow, i love it because iit makes the days very different to how they would be if it werent snowing. its beautiful and makes dublin look soooo nice.I also love how all the teachers at school and other students in my class make such a big deal out of the snow, oh my god how are we gonna get home the bus isnt running, and teachers are wondering should we send pupils home are keep them, nd then when we do stay in we dont do anywork or get homework etc i just love snow it is heaven for me, oh and carsinian thau you are actually in the majority of people with that preference towards snow. i'd say 95 percent of irish people hate it, my parents and sublings and extended family hate it,all my friends hate it, myteachers,school staff and oupils hate it,government hates it,motorists hate it . we snowlovers on boards are a small minority in ireland who flock to this forum to talk about snow, and snowhaters on this forum think that everyone loves snow just because lots of people on this forum do when in afct most peoeple hate snows guts:D viva la cold snowy winters

Bishop_Donal

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Am I being rude by suggesting MT's forecast for Jan and Feb of last Winter were totally out ?
Were both months not more or less snowless ??

Now i'm all for guys who stick their neck out and make lrf's but fair is fair and apart from December the forecast had more inaccuracies than accuracies

I guess the most 'stick your neck out' aspect of the forecast relates to the November / December period and that was pretty damn accurate by any measure!!

My key recollection of January / February was spending half an hour every morning defrosting, so while the snow didn't materialise the way lots of us would have liked, it was always marginal.

On balance, it's not about being rude, but I do think your judgement is a bit harsh.

Let's put it this way, his 3 month forecast was considerably more accurate than a lot of other peoples 5 day forecasts (and on the other hand in general I find his short range forecast the most reliable that I can source), Anyway, just one persons opinion.

Redsunset

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Am I being rude by suggesting MT's forecast for Jan and Feb of last Winter were totally out ?
Were both months not more or less snowless ??

Now i'm all for guys who stick their neck out and make lrf's but fair is fair and apart from December the forecast had more inaccuracies than accuracies

Fred AKA Blast from The Past admitted that it was he who convinced MT to agree to a cold feb.So MT was not so sure.

esposito

I just hope MT calls it as it is (which i'm sure he will) and dosen't dramatize just to please us snow lovers!

Carsinian Thau

patneve2 wrote: »

But seriously, when you write "though admittedly not particularly interesting or worthy of protracted discussion" you kind of make me a bit angry

Sorry, I've been living on about 4 hours sleep a night for the past while so I'm a little slow at the moment. That was meant to mean that if it's just personal preference to have snow then there's nothing to really talk about. Kind of like if someone just likes X genre of music more than Y genre of music, then that's it, there wouldn't be any major information to be gleaned from going it detail on it. Sorry for the bad phrasing though.

patneve2 wrote: »

Not to offend you or anything, but you are evidently quite ignorant in the subject

Definitely not going to disagree with that though.

patneve2 wrote: »

when you have a passion it can be an endless source of discussion....discussing weather charts that promise snow/exciting weather, discussing snow accumulations, discussing snow events as they develop (or any weather event for that matter), checking synoptic charts to see the if the conditions are right...

I do find the science behind it all to be very interesting, despite the fact that I don't properly understand it and that understanding will diminish more as I don't have time to keep up on anything outside my own field.

patneve2 wrote: »

And by the way this has been done to death...

Should really have realised that. (I really obviously don't come here often!)



Everything's that's been said makes complete sense. Though we'll have to agree to disagree about hoping if snow actually comes or not.

Mars Bar

To me, snow is only a nuisance as our government and ourselves don't know how to deal with it.

I like snow! I much prefer a snappy cold and snowy day to rain and wind.

Lucreto

I am with bb1234567 point of view.

I like snow as it is something different. We don't get a lot of it most of the time so for me it was a novelty. I lived in Bray for years and I never got snow now I am in Kildare and never got any that lasted a day. So I think it is me wanting to catch up all the snow I missed in my youth.:p

I like walking in it and no cars on the road especially when it is snowing. I also enjoy the sunshine after a snow shower. I enjoy it more than summer sun.

I am lucky I work in walking distance and enough shops around to keep me in food.

dsmythy

Another reason to dislike heavy snow is how troublemakers react to it. I don't mind putting up with it for a couple of days at a time followed by a thaw but please not a whole month of it ha.

Mc Love

Carsinian Thau wrote: »

Why would anyone actually wish for snow? Barring children, who just think it's fun no matter what, it's actually a huge inconvenience. It practically shut down the entire country last year and if nothing else, was pretty freaking dangerous. I know cold, wet and grey isn't fun but at least you can walk around (however uncomfortably) and driving doesn't become insanely dangerous.

Unless you lived in Limerick and didn't get any snow! Or not as much as the rest of the country!