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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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    #122
    thebaz
    Registered Users Posts: 13,584 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    Swedish figures today

    New cases 466
    New deaths 17


    Ireland

    New cases 839
    New deaths. 33

    Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?


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    #123
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Just googled what Swedish doctors are saying. It wouldn't recommend their approach to you
    A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will “probably end in a historical massacre.” He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because “it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision” but said he felt a need to speak out from an “ethical and medical point of view.”

    https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/


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    #124
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    This bit in that article is a little bit vague for my liking:.

    "The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while."

    well they can't say definitively at this early date can they....

    the people tested for immunity there are not long through the experience....

    these Germans are careful feckers.


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    #125
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    thebaz wrote: »
    Swedish figures today

    New cases 466
    New deaths 17


    Ireland

    New cases 839
    New deaths. 33

    Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

    I believe (open to correction) they are only testing people who need to go to hospital and only counting deaths in hospital. If we left out all the deaths happening in nursing homes our figures would be a lot lower too.


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    #126
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,062 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    KiKi III wrote: »
    I believe (open to correction) they are only testing people who need to go to hospital and only counting deaths in hospital. If we left out all the deaths happening in nursing homes our figures would be a lot lower too.

    Yeah Swedens testing is pitiful.

    Their government can't be see to have egg on their face with their criminal approach to this


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    #127
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    glasso wrote: »
    well they can't say definitively at this early date can they....

    the people tested for immunity there are not long through the experience....

    these Germans are careful feckers.

    Well thats the point, bit early maybe to be making arguments for going back to normal when those gaps in knowledgeable remain to be filled in.


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    #128
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Well thats the point, bit early maybe to be making arguments for going back to normal when those gaps in knowledgeable remain to be filled in.

    decisions will be made regardless. the world can't stand still for ever.

    looking like the true infection fatality rate is closer to 0.4 % than 1 to 2%

    that changes a lot.


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    #129
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

    In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !


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    #130
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    thebaz wrote: »
    Swedish figures today

    New cases 466
    New deaths 17


    Ireland

    New cases 839
    New deaths. 33

    Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

    That's a drop of around 80% on yesterday's swedish figure i think. Am guessing that's down to weekend reporting procedures.


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    #131
    Turtwig
    Registered Users Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Blut2 wrote: »
    This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

    No you shouldn't. The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand. With the extent of community spread in Ireland at the moment it'd be putting our hospitals out to pasture to the point appendicitis could be fatal for people.


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    #132
    Nermal
    Registered Users Posts: 2,616 ✭✭✭Nermal


    Turtwig wrote: »
    The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand.

    Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?


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    #133
    Bridge93
    Registered Users Posts: 7,018 ✭✭✭Bridge93


    Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die


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    #134
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Nermal wrote: »
    Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

    don't be questioning the esteemed self-appointed armchair epidemiologist :pac:


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    #135
    Turtwig
    Registered Users Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Nermal wrote: »
    Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

    You want me to cite what?
    Be specific.


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    #136
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lGmcVvQl8s


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    #137
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    Nermal wrote: »
    Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

    Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

    The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.


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    #138
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    2u2me wrote: »
    Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

    The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.

    can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

    Italy has no clue of what % of their population was infected so a death rate cannot be calculated there

    at the very least the assumptions in Ireland and elsewhere should be revisited in the light of this German data


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    #139
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    2u2me wrote: »
    In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !

    Two ways of looking at it imo.

    Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

    or

    Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.


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    #140
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

    We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.


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    #141
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

    You're right - we have absolutely no evidence of how this works out in the long run. Nobody does.

    So the smart money would go with the approach working best in the immediate term.


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    #142
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

    I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.



    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804


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    #143
    vladmydad
    Registered Users Posts: 786 ✭✭✭vladmydad


    Bridge93 wrote: »
    Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die

    This is what I’m talking about right here..... what a scandalous thing to say.


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    #144
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    Blut2 wrote: »
    This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

    What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

    Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

    It would give an interesting picture


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    #145
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Jurgen Klopp wrote: »
    What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

    Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

    It would give an interesting picture

    I feel like we never think outside of the box in this country, it's always a case of following everyone else and usually from far behind. It's only through referendums that we have actually done anything you could consider progressive. Ultra conservative politics rule round these parts unfortunately.


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    #146
    Jurgen Klopp
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭Jurgen Klopp


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

    I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.



    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

    Well if I remember correctly with the swine flu it was declared a pandemic in April with vaccines that November but resulted in 1 in 55,000 developing narcolepsy from the vaccine


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    #147
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.
    .
    All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.


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    #148
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    .
    All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

    I'm not aware of any success stories tbh, of course a virus isn't going to spread if you stop people moving around. The real success will be lifting restrictions and not having a resurgence, there's no proof of this anywhere yet.


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    #149
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    glasso wrote: »
    can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

    Well it wasn't just ventilator shortage. It was shortage of medical personnel and other equipment, resources, beds, wards, masks, etc..

    Just look at the death rate they have been experiencing as of late, compared to the death rate(per unit time) they had before this crisis. They're health service was unable to handle it.
    A total of 17,127 people have died from the virus in Italy,the most anywhere in the world, with Lombardy accounting for 55%of the tally. The region also accounts for 39% of the country's 135,586 confirmed cases.
    The particularly large death toll in Lombardy, thewealthiest region in Italy, has raised eyebrows, with local officials suggesting that both the high urban density andconsiderable elderly population might have played a part.
    However, a damning letter by senior doctors, including the heads of 11 provincial health authorities within Lombardy, said failures in the region's health system had exacerbated the greatest emergency Italy has faced since World War Two[...]
    While the neighbouring region of Veneto engaged in widespread testing in a known coronavirus hotspot, Lombardy only tested the seriously ill arriving for treatment in hospital,saying they did not have the capacity for wider checks.
    Source


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    #150
    2u2me
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,693 ✭✭✭2u2me


    timsey tiger wrote: »
    Two ways of looking at it imo.

    Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

    or

    Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.

    I think we can disregard the placebo effect in this case! :pac:


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    #151
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    .
    All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

    So-called "success" Singapore now locked down

    https://www.cnet.com/news/singapore-had-the-coronavirus-under-control-now-its-locking-down-the-country/


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