Sweden avoiding lockdown

niallo27

glasso wrote: »

don't say rate then!

a rate is something measured against something else.....

anyways it may be still to early to judge Sweden's figures - another month will give a clearer picture.

I meant the death per head of population rate.

sydthebeat

niallo27 wrote: »

I meant the death per head of population rate.

You mean Swedens 88 versus Finland 8??

Who's tackling it better?

Joe_ Public

Sweden was always an interesting case as a kind of poster boy for the advocates of keeping economies going. There's not many other examples of countries tackling the virus without a lockdown, south korea never fully did but they had an excellent testing policy that helped them prevent that.

The gloss is now wearing off Sweden somewhat and they may well live to regret their strategy. You might even say they could be doing worse but it's also the case that having one of Europe's lowest population densities is a factor that should be standing to them.

Gary kk

niallo27 wrote: »

We are just delaying the inevitable here, we will all end up going this way. People really need to get their heads out of the sand.

Yeah but its about not overloading the health service

vladmydad

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

vladmydad

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208397/amp/Sweden-sees-just-77-new-deaths-coronavirus.html?__twitter_impression=true

vladmydad

vladmydad wrote: »

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

I'm pretty sure nobody is concerned about such a thing. If we'd let it play out, that would be our entire health service collapsed.

sydthebeat

vladmydad wrote: »

The truth is everyone on here and in other countries are terrified Sweden got it right. There’s a strange kind of Nationalism going on here. People can’t stand the thought that they may have spent weeks in quarantine for nothing, maybe even losing their livelihoods, so they attack the Swedes as a kind of defense mechanism.

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

Donald Trump

Do they still do the oul' Eugenics up there?


Wikipedia says they stopped in the '76 ..... well 2012 if you count the people who wanted to do the oul' gender switcheroo

Joe_ Public

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

vladmydad

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm pretty sure nobody is concerned about such a thing. If we'd let it play out, that would be our entire health service collapsed.

There is a barely concealed rooting for Sweden’s failure throughout this thread, Twitter and many other places, that I find disturbing. Admitting we consented to flushing our economy down the toilet may be difficult but wanting Sweden to fail is just nasty.

niallo27

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

We wont know that until nearer the end of the year though.

niallo27

Gary kk wrote: »

Yeah but its about not overloading the health service

Is the swedish health service overloaded, genuine question. It should be by now.

vladmydad

vladmydad wrote: »

There is a barely concealed rooting for Sweden’s failure throughout this thread, Twitter and many other places, that I find disturbing. Admitting we consented to flushing our economy down the toilet may be difficult but wanting Sweden to fail is just nasty.

I don't believe people want Sweden to fail. In the same way people criticize the UK response originally.
People don't want to see unnecessary deaths that can be avoided.

metricspaces

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

All your post shows is you still don't get the point. Comparing apples & oranges. Too early in the game to compare.

Blut2

glasso wrote: »

the Germans immunity tested 80% of a town with about 11,000 population

they were therefore able to get a very accurate picture (obv demographics comes into it) of the infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/


Quote:
One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

Nermal

sydthebeat wrote: »

The figures show that obviously Sweden aren't getting it right.

You might have a point if your base argument wasn't so easily shown to be false

And you might have a point if success was measured solely in minimising deaths. Not that simple though, is it?

Joe_ Public

Worth pointing out that having one of best healthcare systems will help them cope. Or at least one of the highest per capita spends anyway.

Joe_ Public

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

This bit in that article is a little bit vague for my liking:.

"The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while."

mariaalice

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-sweden-to-enact-crisis-powers-but-hold-them-in-reserve-1.4223367

They are hoping it is working but just in case its not.

thebaz

Swedish figures today

New cases 466
New deaths 17


Ireland

New cases 839
New deaths. 33

Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

KiKi III

Just googled what Swedish doctors are saying. It wouldn't recommend their approach to you

A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will “probably end in a historical massacre.” He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because “it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision” but said he felt a need to speak out from an “ethical and medical point of view.”

https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This bit in that article is a little bit vague for my liking:.

"The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while."

well they can't say definitively at this early date can they....

the people tested for immunity there are not long through the experience....

these Germans are careful feckers.

KiKi III

thebaz wrote: »

Swedish figures today

New cases 466
New deaths 17


Ireland

New cases 839
New deaths. 33

Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

I believe (open to correction) they are only testing people who need to go to hospital and only counting deaths in hospital. If we left out all the deaths happening in nursing homes our figures would be a lot lower too.

sydthebeat

KiKi III wrote: »

I believe (open to correction) they are only testing people who need to go to hospital and only counting deaths in hospital. If we left out all the deaths happening in nursing homes our figures would be a lot lower too.

Yeah Swedens testing is pitiful.

Their government can't be see to have egg on their face with their criminal approach to this

Joe_ Public

glasso wrote: »

well they can't say definitively at this early date can they....

the people tested for immunity there are not long through the experience....

these Germans are careful feckers.

Well thats the point, bit early maybe to be making arguments for going back to normal when those gaps in knowledgeable remain to be filled in.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well thats the point, bit early maybe to be making arguments for going back to normal when those gaps in knowledgeable remain to be filled in.

decisions will be made regardless. the world can't stand still for ever.

looking like the true infection fatality rate is closer to 0.4 % than 1 to 2%

that changes a lot.

2u2me

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !

Joe_ Public

thebaz wrote: »

Swedish figures today

New cases 466
New deaths 17


Ireland

New cases 839
New deaths. 33

Surely they should be inverted according to experts models ?

That's a drop of around 80% on yesterday's swedish figure i think. Am guessing that's down to weekend reporting procedures.

Turtwig

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

No you shouldn't. The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand. With the extent of community spread in Ireland at the moment it'd be putting our hospitals out to pasture to the point appendicitis could be fatal for people.

Nermal

Turtwig wrote: »

The fatality ratio only applies when there's sufficient healthcare to meet demand.

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

Bridge93

Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die

Nermal

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

don't be questioning the esteemed self-appointed armchair epidemiologist :pac:

Turtwig

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

You want me to cite what?
Be specific.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lGmcVvQl8s

2u2me

Nermal wrote: »

Let's see your data. You're responding to a post with a cite - where's yours?

Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.

2u2me

2u2me wrote: »

Just because the death rate may be a lot lower than expected doesn't necessarily mean loosening restrictions being the right course of action.

The logic Turtwig points out is sound, Just look at Italy; over-burdening the hospitals all at once can lead to people dying from very treatable conditions.

can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

Italy has no clue of what % of their population was infected so a death rate cannot be calculated there

at the very least the assumptions in Ireland and elsewhere should be revisited in the light of this German data

timsey tiger

2u2me wrote: »

In this experiment they would be called the 'control group' !

Two ways of looking at it imo.

Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

or

Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.

Logan Roy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Even people in Sweden are calling it the "great experiment." I'm happy not to be in a situation where I'm feeling like a lab rat.

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

KiKi III

Logan Roy wrote: »

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

You're right - we have absolutely no evidence of how this works out in the long run. Nobody does.

So the smart money would go with the approach working best in the immediate term.

timsey tiger

Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.



https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

vladmydad

Bridge93 wrote: »

Sweden do not test or record anything outside of their hospitals. Do not take any notice of their numbers. They’ve left swathes of their population to die

This is what I’m talking about right here..... what a scandalous thing to say.

Jurgen Klopp

Blut2 wrote: »

This is really worth quoting for a new page. We should really be seeing a rapid loosening of restrictions now, given this data.

What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

It would give an interesting picture

Logan Roy

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

What should be happening is each government should be following Iceland's and Germanys path by sending out teams to randomly sample their population from different areas

Not this craic so far where a lot nations are just testing those who present to hospital or have to meet a high criteria which is whipping media and populations into hysteria

It would give an interesting picture

I feel like we never think outside of the box in this country, it's always a case of following everyone else and usually from far behind. It's only through referendums that we have actually done anything you could consider progressive. Ultra conservative politics rule round these parts unfortunately.

Jurgen Klopp

timsey tiger wrote: »

Reports of fast tracked vaccines being ready to roll out in September today from UK.

I guess these might be wishful thinking or complete over selling, but if it comes to pass, then a lock-down wound in hindsight be seen as the way to go. I guess.



https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

Well if I remember correctly with the swine flu it was declared a pandemic in April with vaccines that November but resulted in 1 in 55,000 developing narcolepsy from the vaccine

Joe_ Public

Logan Roy wrote: »

We're in an experiment of our own, how can people not understand this. There's absolutely no proof at all that in the long run our approach works better than theirs.

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

Logan Roy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

I'm not aware of any success stories tbh, of course a virus isn't going to spread if you stop people moving around. The real success will be lifting restrictions and not having a resurgence, there's no proof of this anywhere yet.

2u2me

glasso wrote: »

can you link to definitive evidence showing how many would have been saved in Italy and how many died specifically because of ventilator shortage?

Well it wasn't just ventilator shortage. It was shortage of medical personnel and other equipment, resources, beds, wards, masks, etc..

Just look at the death rate they have been experiencing as of late, compared to the death rate(per unit time) they had before this crisis. They're health service was unable to handle it.

A total of 17,127 people have died from the virus in Italy,the most anywhere in the world, with Lombardy accounting for 55%of the tally. The region also accounts for 39% of the country's 135,586 confirmed cases.
The particularly large death toll in Lombardy, thewealthiest region in Italy, has raised eyebrows, with local officials suggesting that both the high urban density andconsiderable elderly population might have played a part.
However, a damning letter by senior doctors, including the heads of 11 provincial health authorities within Lombardy, said failures in the region's health system had exacerbated the greatest emergency Italy has faced since World War Two[...]
While the neighbouring region of Veneto engaged in widespread testing in a known coronavirus hotspot, Lombardy only tested the seriously ill arriving for treatment in hospital,saying they did not have the capacity for wider checks.

Source

2u2me

timsey tiger wrote: »

Two ways of looking at it imo.

Yes you could say that, though this isn't an experiment, it's an experience.

or

Not really, they know that they are the control group. For an experiment, neither they nor their physician should know whether they were the control or not.

I think we can disregard the placebo effect in this case! :pac:

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

.
All you can say is that every success story at this early stage has involved either a restrictive approach or very aggressive testing and contact tracing or both. Thats it so far, i havent heard of any counter strategy working effectively yet. I just want to be with the herd on this one. If it turns out I've been backing the wrong horse, I'll shrug and say that's where I'd have wanted to be everytime anyway.

So-called "success" Singapore now locked down

https://www.cnet.com/news/singapore-had-the-coronavirus-under-control-now-its-locking-down-the-country/