The UK response - Part II - read OP

robinph wrote: »

Unsurprisingly the UK and various regions and cities rank in the top of the excess deaths statistics across Europe (and the UK):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881

Curious as to how France is showing as only 0.2% above their usual rate of deaths though. Either someone put the decimal point in the wrong place on one of their calculations, or France is a very deadly place to be under normal circumstances with 30K+ covid reported deaths.

Maybe a couple of possible factors. Maybe figure is wrong or could reflect a higher usual death rate in previous years compared to other countries, not really sure.

But also one difference between, say, England and France is in the concentration of the outbreak. In England while London bore the brunt, it still spread to most areas while in France there were large areas of the country left untouched so with the benefit of lockdown obviously experienced negative trends in excess deaths figures. I dont know about 0.2% but not surprised there'd be a difference. Italy not listed there but judging by the euromomo graphs, I'd imagine their overall figure to be lowish too. Outside of Bergamo and some neighbouring areas, excess deaths have been below average in most regions. Dont know why that is, but it might partially explain the discrepancy.

Decided finally to align with WHO and impose a 10 day self-isolation/quarantine period.

Add that to the long list of decisions the UK made out that were of sync with global best practices but ended in a u-turn a few months later.

robinph wrote: »

There was some massive death rates in France a couple of years ago now you mention it from a heatwave, although I'd have though that was around August time.

More than a couple of years ago - 2003. I remember it well - made house-hunting with four children quite an interesting experience. :cool:

The recorded excess deaths for that period was 15000 over three weeks; the 30000 excess deaths in France due to Covid-19 are restricted to the months of March and April; deaths since 1st May are at/below normal. 0.2% excess does sound suspiciously low, though.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

North West goes back into restrictions at midnight.

"The health secretary announced that from midnight on Thursday people from different households in Greater Manchester, parts of East Lancashire, West Yorkshire and Leicester would not be able to meet each other indoors"

Does that mean pubs and restaurants in the area have to close. Couldn't see it mentioned online.

Dave0301 wrote: »

Apparently not...the advice is that pubs/restaurants can remain open. You should only visit as a household and socially distance. Seems a bit odd, but I am sure the UK Govt know what they are doing.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1288964940569739266

This is another interesting development by the UK government,

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1288970507812044800?s=20

https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/1288969281275858946?s=20

It is all clear and easy to understand. You can sit next to people from other households in a pub but if you meet those same people in a garden you are at risk of being fined.

The first tweet seems to be a follow up to this,

https://twitter.com/woodstockjag/status/1288965398692532224?s=20

Seems like there is confusion on the lockdown and it was a surprise to almost everyone bar the Health Secretary,

https://twitter.com/deb_cohen/status/1288965938503704576?s=20

Here is the tweets from Hancock,

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1288931608750444555?s=20

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1288931974531424256?s=20

Despicable that he is blaming the public for this and not this shambles of a government and their shambles of communication. I have posted it before but those in charge at the moment really are some of the worst you can possibly think of. Blaming people for not keeping to lockdown rules and guidance,

https://twitter.com/Matthew_Wright/status/1288734144957165568?s=20

This new lockdown in UK is very much aimed at Muslim community and upcoming Eid celebrations.
Look at the cities and towns singled out and it’s only for household gatherings only.
Eid celebrations involve gatherings in households from kids to grandparents

ongarite wrote: »

This new lockdown in UK is very much aimed at Muslim community and upcoming Eid celebrations.
Look at the cities and towns singled out and it’s only for household gatherings only.
Eid celebrations involve gatherings in households from kids to grandparents

I seen some suggestions online this morning relating to this, but to remove any doubt about it, just listened to Tory MP Craig Whittaker on LBC (link to interview).

Criag Whittaker is MP for the Calder Valley, one of the areas that has been affected. He told Ian Payne that it is Muslim and BAME communities who have not been obeying lockdown rules.

He said: "What I have seen in my constituency is that there are sections of the community that are not taking the pandemic seriously."

Ian clarified that he was talking about the Muslim community and Mr Whittaker responded: "Of course.

"If you look at the areas where we've seen rises and cases, the vast majority - but not by any stretch of the imagination all areas - it is the BAME communities that are not taking this seriously enough.

"I've been challenging our local leaders for three weeks, asking what we are doing to target these areas to let people know that this is a very serious problem. Until people take it seriously, we're not going to get rid of this pandemic.

"We have areas of high multiple occupancy - when you have multiple families living in one household. It doesn't specifically have to be in the Asian community, but that is the largest proportion.

"Look at the areas. You've got Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees. Bradford and Kirklees have two of the largest populations in West Yorkshire."

Again Ian clarified that he was referring to the immigrant population and the MP said: "Immigrant and Asian population."

Fairly classless accusation to make, particularly when the areas with the highest cases per 100000 are predominantly white.

Dave0301 wrote: »

I seen some suggestions online this morning relating to this, but to remove any doubt about it, just listened to Tory MP Craig Whittaker on LBC (link to interview).



Fairly classless accusation to make, particularly when the areas with the highest cases per 100000 are predominantly white.

Yeah but that does not mean that the people catching it are predominantly white. The overwhelming majority of England is white- 81.9%.

I am in England and in an area with high level of infections some of the highest in fact. It was even being monitored for a lockdown last week- majority white population but high Asian community.

The fact of the matter is that there is a high proportion of Asians in particular catching it. There are reasons for it.

I can see it myself anecdotally and while it might seem politically incorrect it is true. 80-90% of my daily interactions are with Asians both 1st and 2nd generation. I have sat in their houses. Quite often English is not even the 2nd or 3rd language spoken in the household. As for writing English forget it.

And yes you will find households with 5-10 members living in a 2/3 bed house- parents, young children, grandparents, in laws- the works.

I was working with a family a few years back and they live in a 2 bed terrace- there is 9 of them in the house. That is normal.

They do gather in large groups. Very rare to see a 2-3 Asian family walking in the park or in the shops- the whole extended family tags along so you will have groups with 7,8,9,10 + family members in close proximity and then they will meet up with similar sized groups. Quite often speaking in Urdu or Punjab.

TV is piped in via sateillte from India/Pakistan or Bangladesh. Quite often I will have an Asian client ranting at me for not being open the day before- I have to point out that it was a Bank Holiday- no idea that it was a Bank Holiday. They follow their own Islamic or Hindi holidays.

There can also be a large disconnect between swathes of the BAME communities and the rest of the England. They won't follow the news, they don't go to the pub, they dont' play sports or engage with society like we would in Ireland. They will stick together- sure it's like Irish lads in Aus os Boston hanging around together.

In Ireland you are not going to appreciate the cultural niceties over here.

I am just speaking from own experiences and not every BAME is like the above but what the MP was saying is not controversial and you will struggle to find anyone who disagrees. Even Asians would agree what my brief summary above.

You can try to blame one community or one type of people as much as you like, this is why people in the UK don't care for the lockdown rules,

Dominic Cummings undermined lockdown enforcement, says ex-Durham police chief

Durham’s former chief constable has warned that Dominic Cummings’ lockdown behaviour has made it more difficult for officers to enforce the rules and has been used by some as an excuse for law-breaking.

Mike Barton said the decision by the prime minister’s chief aide to drive to Durham at the height of the coronavirus pandemic had “damaged trust in the government and in the rules”.

After the trip was exposed by the Guardian and the Daily Mirror, Barton said: “People were actually using the word ‘Cummings’ in encounters with the police to justify antisocial behaviour.”

Speaking to Times Radio, he said: “If the public don’t think the police are operating in a fair and impartial way, you won’t get their trust and you won’t get their support. People who make the rules shouldn’t break them. Otherwise, you can’t expect the little people to do it.”

Barton, who retired last year after a seven-year stint running the force, also criticised Cummings’s failure to apologise for his actions and the excuses he gave for them during a Downing Street press conference. “His bare-faced effrontery in the rose garden was staggering,” he said.

Barton said Cummings’s explanation for his trip to Barnard Castle was worse than childish.

He said: “To say that he drove 60 miles with his child in the back of the car, on his wife’s birthday, to go to a beauty spot to test his eyesight, just beggars belief. I wouldn’t have expected a seven-year-old boy who was caught red-handed to have come out with such a ridiculous excuse.”

He added: “So do I think that damaged trust in the government and in the rules? Of course it did. And that’s what the studies are now saying.”

This seemed to me to break the spirit people had in following the rules. Add into this that is seems the UK government is quick to relax lockdown rules when the infection rates were still high compared to their EU neighbours and their ambiguous messaging didn't help.

Tory MP condemned for claim BAME people breaching lockdown most

In Trafford, a mostly affluent part of Greater Manchester, health officials said younger middle-class residents were behind the recent rise in cases, not the south Asian community.

Eleanor Roaf, Trafford council’s director of public health, said about 57% of the new cases were people aged 25 or below and included those in its wealthiest suburbs, Altrincham and Hale, where footballers and actors live.

“It’s spread across Trafford. It’s not concentrated at all in our more deprived areas,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“My real concern is perhaps the messaging. Definitely the harms from Covid are concentrated in the more deprived areas but in fact anyone can get it and we really need to make sure that people living in wealthier areas aren’t complacent because that’s the biggest risk.

“Altrincham, Hale, have been some of our hotspots in Trafford, so the messaging I’m wanting to get out is [that] absolutely anyone can get it.”

I can link the pictures of the beaches or the fans in Liverpool and Leeds gathering, which were not BAME majorities but they are easy to find. It is easy for a party that has a problem with Islamaphobia to blame Muslims for this and people to agree with them. Labour lost the last election because they have a problem with Antisemitism, the Tories has just as big of a problem but nobody is talking about it because "brown" people are the ones they are targeting. It says a lot about the attitude of the UK to race.

https://twitter.com/LawrenceDunhill/status/1289177998990520320?s=20

While I am writhing this I can see the Mosque across the road. There is about 10-15 guys standing around chatting outside the door. No masks and no social distancing.

Enzokk wrote: »

This is another interesting development by the UK government,

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1288970507812044800?s=20

https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/1288969281275858946?s=20

It is all clear and easy to understand. You can sit next to people from other households in a pub but if you meet those same people in a garden you are at risk of being fined.

The first tweet seems to be a follow up to this,

https://twitter.com/woodstockjag/status/1288965398692532224?s=20

Seems like there is confusion on the lockdown and it was a surprise to almost everyone bar the Health Secretary,

https://twitter.com/deb_cohen/status/1288965938503704576?s=20

Here is the tweets from Hancock,

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1288931608750444555?s=20

https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1288931974531424256?s=20

Despicable that he is blaming the public for this and not this shambles of a government and their shambles of communication. I have posted it before but those in charge at the moment really are some of the worst you can possibly think of. Blaming people for not keeping to lockdown rules and guidance,

https://twitter.com/Matthew_Wright/status/1288734144957165568?s=20

Why compare yourself to Europe?

Shambles is not the word. The directions are so wishy washy again.

partyguinness wrote: »

Yeah but that does not mean that the people catching it are predominantly white. The overwhelming majority of England is white- 81.9%.

I am in England and in an area with high level of infections some of the highest in fact. It was even being monitored for a lockdown last week- majority white population but high Asian community.

The fact of the matter is that there is a high proportion of Asians in particular catching it. There are reasons for it.

I can see it myself anecdotally and while it might seem politically incorrect it is true. 80-90% of my daily interactions are with Asians both 1st and 2nd generation. I have sat in their houses. Quite often English is not even the 2nd or 3rd language spoken in the household. As for writing English forget it.

And yes you will find households with 5-10 members living in a 2/3 bed house- parents, young children, grandparents, in laws- the works.

I was working with a family a few years back and they live in a 2 bed terrace- there is 9 of them in the house. That is normal.

They do gather in large groups. Very rare to see a 2-3 Asian family walking in the park or in the shops- the whole extended family tags along so you will have groups with 7,8,9,10 + family members in close proximity and then they will meet up with similar sized groups. Quite often speaking in Urdu or Punjab.

TV is piped in via sateillte from India/Pakistan or Bangladesh. Quite often I will have an Asian client ranting at me for not being open the day before- I have to point out that it was a Bank Holiday- no idea that it was a Bank Holiday. They follow their own Islamic or Hindi holidays.

There can also be a large disconnect between swathes of the BAME communities and the rest of the England. They won't follow the news, they don't go to the pub, they dont' play sports or engage with society like we would in Ireland. They will stick together- sure it's like Irish lads in Aus os Boston hanging around together.

In Ireland you are not going to appreciate the cultural niceties over here.

I am just speaking from own experiences and not every BAME is like the above but what the MP was saying is not controversial and you will struggle to find anyone who disagrees. Even Asians would agree what my brief summary above.

I don't disagree that some of the living arrangements in BAME communities may contribute to infection rates within those communities. I live and have lived in various parts of the UK, so I do have an insight into the cultural niceties as you put it.

The Tory MP was using anecdotal evidence to blame certain communities as to why he believes cases are rising, which may or may not turn out to be accurate. It would have been more preferable if he actually had some data to hand to back up his claims, but that will depend on how well the track and trace system is working.

Aegir wrote: »

This isn’t anecdotal evidence to blame a certain community, there is a real and confirmed problem with certain communities across several regions.

It isn’t politically correct and as we saw from Enzo, the left would much rather blame Dominic Cummings, but the reality is, this is a problem within the Muslim community and it needs to be addressed.

Can you point me in the direction of data that breakdowns case by ethnicity?

I am not trying to be smart, it is a genuine question. I know that BAME have been shown to have higher fatality rates, but if track and trace is showing trends in infection it would be helpful to have a look.

just so you know there is no extra lockdown in yorkshire. my sister lives there and the roads from west Yorkshire to the Yorkshire coast were all jammed yesterday as it was 32 degrees. so despite all the noises from government a lot of people are just ignoring it.

Aegir wrote: »

This isn’t anecdotal evidence to blame a certain community, there is a real and confirmed problem with certain communities across several regions.

It isn’t politically correct and as we saw from Enzo, the left would much rather blame Dominic Cummings, but the reality is, this is a problem within the Muslim community and it needs to be addressed.

Yeah, not falling for this rubbish. People were following the lockdown rules until Cummings openly flaunted them and refused to apologise. The PM refused to say that he made a mistake and this allowed people to openly ignore the rules as well. We have seen countless images of white people gathering in groups and on beaches and partying in Liverpool and Leeds showing that people in the UK are ignoring the advice.

But there are people more interested in looking to blame one group of people for the increase in cases. You yourself in this post say it, it is a "problem in the Muslim community" as if the groundwork for ignoring the rules hasn't been laid before.

There is a problem in the UK, where those in power gets away with flaunting the rules. This has led all of the rest to ignore the rules, regardless of the colour of their skin or their religion. This has not been helped by shoddy communication from the government where they have once again made it more confusing for people to follow or understand. The fact that there is what seems to be an attempt to shift the focus on one group of people isn't going to change what happened in March and April with Cummings.

Aegir wrote: »

So large numbers of south Asians wouldn’t be working in sweat shops or mixing in large multi generational groups indoors, if Cummings hadn’t decided to take a drive up north?

What absolute rubbish.

You are right, your post is absolute rubbish as it is not what I was saying. Maybe focus on what I was saying and then come back with a coherent reply.