FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 2:37pm

If we could even get a 24 hour easterly snow train going that would be something, doesn't have to be a beast from the east lasting a week or more. I seem to remember I think it was January or February 2008 where we had 1 night of easterly snow trains here in Meath, it dumped about 6 inches in snow in just a few hours. I think Dublin missed out on it due to the IOM Shadow and milder weather was back the next day.

I'd be well happy with 1 decent day of snow showers, whereas these transitional 1cm falls of wet snow are no better than we get during mild winters. Fairly certain we will have more opportunities over the next few weeks but it will probably always be marginal and small amounts if the setup is going to remain a battleground.

sicknotexi · 27-01-2021 2:41pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

Met Eireann have snow graphic over east of country for Sunday. Yesterday they had mild for everywhere but the North on Sunday. Big upgrade there and time for it to improve further.

My eyesight needs checking. It's actually a heavy sleet graphic. Snow showers for the North.

Nqp15hhu · 27-01-2021 2:43pm

The cold air spreads into Northern Ireland from Friday and is there through to early Monday. So that’s actually a reasonable length of time were there could be potentially snow, at least on high ground initially.

lucernarian · 27-01-2021 2:44pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If we could even get a 24 hour easterly snow train going that would be something, doesn't have to be a beast from the east lasting a week or more. I seem to remember I think it was January or February 2008 where we had 1 night of easterly snow trains here in Meath, it dumped about 6 inches in snow in just a few hours. I think Dublin missed out on it due to the IOM Shadow and milder weather was back the next day.

I'd be well happy with 1 decent day of snow showers, whereas these transitional 1cm falls of wet snow are no better than we get during mild winters. Fairly certain we will have more opportunities over the next few weeks but it will probably always be marginal and small amounts if the setup is going to remain a battleground.

Yeah that was a great event. It wasn't really flagged by the models in advance as the cold barely made it here and in a slack flow.

FI doesn't seem too interesting this morning, in the meantime.

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 2:47pm

lucernarian wrote: »

Yeah that was a great event. It wasn't really flagged by the models in advance as the cold barely made it here and in a slack flow.

FI doesn't seem too interesting this morning, in the meantime.

The charts are generally awful this morning, all of them. Very little if any snow over the next 7 days away from high ground.

nacho libre · 27-01-2021 3:25pm

The promising period was suggested as being into the second week of February. Brief cold spells could come from the north or northwest rather than the east if the UKMO is correct. Hopefully, we can tap into a potent northerly at some stage in the next few weeks.

typhoony · 27-01-2021 3:39pm

Not sure GFS or ECM will deliver the goods however it's not often UKMO differs from the other 2 at 120hrs, if UKMO went out to 144 you would see the march of very cold air from the North East.

bazlers · 27-01-2021 3:49pm

There has been more downs than up so far on this winter rollercoaster. Hopfully more ups are not too far away or the leaves will be starting to shoot.

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 4:46pm

If we look over the past 10 days the weather has become milder more than cool/cold, it was mild for much of last week and this week is no different, maybe a hint of cooler weather at the weekend but it will mostly be cold rain and then we're back to relatively mild/average for next week. The trend has been a cold spell from around the 4th of February but this has definitely been shortened in duration to a few days and reduced to low level cold yet again.

The GFS 12z has produced some juicy charts over the past two days, so what will this afternoons 12z show? If we get another decent 12z i'd expect it to be reduced again by the morning.

Artane2002 · 27-01-2021 4:51pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If we look over the past 10 days the weather has become milder more than cool/cold, it was mild for much of last week and this week is no different, maybe a hint of cooler weather at the weekend but it will mostly be cold rain and then we're back to relatively mild/average for next week. The trend has been a cold spell from around the 4th of February but this has definitely been shortened in duration to a few days and reduced to low level cold yet again.

The GFS 12z has produced some juicy charts over the past two days, so what will this afternoons 12z show? If we get another decent 12z i'd expect it to be reduced again by the morning.

the 12z seems to be the new pub run these days...

nacho libre · 27-01-2021 5:04pm

As mentioned yesterday when/if we get three for three from the GFS i'll begin to take notice, up to this point we have not seen three GFS run in a row show juicy charts. For whatever reason the morning runs usually have been very underwhelming after overnight eye candy charts.
Sryan's point about this being a teaser winter looks a very apt way to describe things- fantastic synoptics, that are loaded with potential, but we end up with poor surface conditions.

esposito · 27-01-2021 5:39pm

nacho libre wrote: »

As mentioned yesterday when/if we get three for three from the GFS i'll begin to take notice, up to this point we have not seen three GFS run in a row show juicy charts. For whatever reason the morning runs usually have been very underwhelming after overnight eye candy charts.
Sryan's point about this being a teaser winter looks a very apt way to describe things- fantastic synoptics, that are loaded with potential, but we end up with poor surface conditions.

Definitely noticed this. Morning runs have nearly always been poor after the previous evenings promising output.

bazlers · 27-01-2021 5:39pm

12 z looks decent again. Upgrades or downgrades later?
Im a glass half full. It really is like roulette model watching

Actually you would take them all. Im sure ECM will burst our bubble later : (

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 6:05pm

GEM 12z like yesterdays is showing cold and snow for Leinster with -10 Uppers. Not wasting time to post the chart here since it will probably be gone again on the next run! I'm expecting another GFS 12z to deliver the goods too only for it to fall apart on the pub run. I want consistency and then a lock in.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2021 6:14pm

Quite a lot of potential but will it be converted in to reality...

Gonzo · 27-01-2021 6:16pm

positive signs on the GEM and GFS that we may finally get rid of that southern blocking over Spain, Portugal into the second week of February. Now if only those heights would move well out into the mid Atlantic and up to Greenland then we might start to get somewhere. Once it doesn't slip too far into the Canadian side.

TheMilkyPirate · 27-01-2021 6:17pm

Jesus lads yas can be awful depressing in here sometimes. It's only weather at the end of the day were not trying to solve world hunger with the models. Half the fun is in the chase anyway.

Depressing would be raging south westerlies and Atlantic low after Atlantic low flying over us. At least we have had somewhat of a winter this year and have got a good bit of model watching out of it.

GEM has been consistent with a Scandi/GIN high developing on the 3rd/4th Feb for 3 days now. Has this beauty today also

nacho libre · 27-01-2021 6:21pm

GFSP, GFS and Gem all look good.

image.png.a7a426f6d2f10ec725808335c44625c5.png

I know i sound like a broken record, but until i see this on the morning run i'm not getting sucked in. We also need to see the ECM AND UKMO onboard. Then i'll start to believe it's possible

nacho libre · 27-01-2021 6:25pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

GEM has been consistent with a Scandi/GIN high developing on the 3rd/4th Feb for 3 days now. Has this beauty today also

]

You do make a good point about the GEM. I've read its verifying fairly well these days. If this were to come to pass, it will have led the way on this.

sicknotexi · 27-01-2021 6:41pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Jesus lads yas can be awful depressing in here sometimes. It's only weather at the end of the day were not trying to solve world hunger with the models. Half the fun is in the chase anyway.

Depressing would be raging south westerlies and Atlantic low after Atlantic low flying over us. At least we have had somewhat of a winter this year and have got a good bit of model watching out of it.

GEM has been consistent with a Scandi/GIN high developing on the 3rd/4th Feb for 3 days now. Has this beauty today also

The GEM is a gem. Amirite?

27-01-2021 6:43pm

The Gem actually has my chart of the day today so far
This would ram the east coast with snow showers
It also cures the high pressure in southern Europe problem

image.png.25dcb78e406c34bcd5b874b73a8cb15c.png

image.png.25dcb78e406c34bcd5b874b73a8cb15c.png

carltonleon · 27-01-2021 7:26pm

Would the above equate to some serious serious snow across the top of America?

Reversal · 27-01-2021 7:39pm

ECM going for it?

Nqp15hhu · 27-01-2021 7:41pm

Very disappointed again. The GFS has a system of rain changing to snow over northern Ulster on Saturday.

However, the system on Sunday does not reach us. Another Ulster of snow pushes through on Monday, but this is not modelled on the ECM.

To me it looks as though the cold air will hang on a little longer over Ulster after being introduced on Friday. However it will be mostly dry.

Saturday, (rain to snow in Ulster):

Monday, (snow to rain in Ulster):

A colder weekend ahead in Ulster. The main snow will probably be over south Ulster again.

ninebeanrows · 27-01-2021 7:42pm

GEM has been teasing for a while.

Tonight's EC looks interesting.

Let's hop we can see a follow through!

ECM1-192.GIF?27-0

Scotland is going to get pasted

ninebeanrows · 27-01-2021 7:50pm

Easy now...

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2021 7:51pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

GEM has been teasing for a while.

Tonight's EC looks interesting.

Let's hop we can see a follow through!

Scotland is going to get pasted

OK now this has my full attention. Azores cut off, height rise to the north and LP in to the near continent

TheMilkyPirate · 27-01-2021 7:55pm

Big move towards the GEM from ECM

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2021 7:59pm

Don't worry at 240, lightyears away (even though it's fine)...the building blocks are there day 6. Plenty to work with :pac:

typhoony · 27-01-2021 8:01pm

models have been chopping and changes over the last few days but now a definite signal for colder weather in 10 days time, obviously a lot will depend on the strengthn and the track of the low pressure systems in the Atlantic

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST