Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

maiden · 11-12-2010 9:02pm

Wolfe, what do you predict the lowest temp will be for Clare next week and what are the chances of snow???

Musicman2000 · 11-12-2010 9:09pm

maiden wrote: »

Wolfe, what do you predict the lowest temp will be for Clare next week and what are the chances of snow???

Come back tue or wen and ask that question, models are still changing:)

Birdnuts · 11-12-2010 9:18pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Come back tue or wen and ask that question, models are still changing:)

Yep - increased uncertainty tonight, arctic plunge could stall to our North leaving us in no-mans land:(

patneve2 · 11-12-2010 9:24pm

ECM 12Z is actually starting to worry me! I know its still far out but it seems to be picking up on a far more westward movement of the polar vortex...dunno, all i can do is pray to the GFS gods...

M.T. Cranium · 11-12-2010 10:01pm

The fact that the Canadian GEM model is closer to the GFS although like a blend of GFS and ECM demonstrates that North American based models are generally picking up less of a retrograde signal in this evolution. Since they are generally stronger in the Canadian arctic sector, this is probably a good sign although a blend of GFS and ECM would actually be better for snow in Ireland than any other solution at present. As I continue to say, watch the period 19-22 Dec for greater development in general as we get closer to the time. This is where a battleground scenario between the potent cold outbreak and what's left of the milder pattern near Iberia and the Azores may come into play. I doubt that we will see realistic depictions of this eventual outcome on any model before about Wed 15th.

Iancar29 · 11-12-2010 10:17pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As I continue to say, watch the period 19-22 Dec for greater development in general as we get closer to the time. This is where a battleground scenario between the potent cold outbreak and what's left of the milder pattern near Iberia and the Azores may come into play..

LEt the atmospheric war begin!

goosey93 · 11-12-2010 10:18pm

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813

I thought this might interest some of you!

Iancar29 · 11-12-2010 10:28pm

goosey93 wrote: »

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813

I thought this might interest some of you!

It raised an eye for me but i think its a bit generalised.
I dont think myself its gonna get much colder than we had here last week , but hey , im in dublin , we only got -5,6 here while other places got -12,14 so ye i dont want to start warning my friends and family until theres some agreement and some expeceted temps.

OR SHOULD I ?:rolleyes::rolleyes:

snow ghost · 11-12-2010 10:46pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

i dont want to start warning my friends and family until theres some agreement and some expeceted temps.

OR SHOULD I ?:rolleyes::rolleyes:

You could always warn them of the potential, with the caveat that it may not happen.

But yeah, just in case Satan, high on snow, does ride out of Hell on a horned polar bear next weekend, it's probably best to give friends and relatives the heads-up that an icy Rapture could be upon us. Just try to remain calm and say it with words that don't cause unnecessary alarm or panic.
　

JJJJNR · 11-12-2010 10:50pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

LEt the atmospheric war begin!

Battle of the bulge!

Duiske · 11-12-2010 10:58pm

goosey93 wrote: »

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6813

I thought this might interest some of you!

Just found an interesting link on that site.

35,000 DEATHS FEAR IN NEW ARCTIC BLIZZARDS

That paper is prone to "slight" exaggeration though, so a few pinch's of salt required when reading. I especially love the following :

Britons face spiralling energy bills while the death toll this winter could reach 35,000.
There are also fears some mail may not reach its destination by Christmas Day because of the freeze.

What ? Delayed christmas cards ?? Now that's just horrific !!

derekon · 11-12-2010 11:12pm

The latest GFS issued at 1800 hours this evening is still on track in respect of bitter arctic air flooding south over Ireland & Britain

It is due to kick in around 7pm Thursday evening. By Friday midday, -12oC upper 850hPA temperatures are spreading across the island. Cold enough for snow.

What is really interesting about this run is that it gets particularly cold in Ireland from the 19th December right up to the 27th December. Previous GFS runs had indicated Ireland would return to a milder pattern around Christmas Eve.

I realise this is all FI at the moment however we are now getting closer to the "reliable timeframe" for very cold air this Thursday 16/12/2010.

My wife is going to love this (she hates the snow!)

Not that I ever doubted him, but I am beginning to take seriously the latest forecast from MT. I think Ireland could be about to enter a very cold period from the end of next week for at least a timeframe of 10 days.

A White Christmas is now looking very likely for Ireland

Link to latest GFS attached......(I found the GFS to be pretty reliable during the recent very cold spell)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

Diddler1977 · 11-12-2010 11:13pm

Duiske wrote: »

What ? Delayed christmas cards ?? Now that's just horrific !!

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: OH NO! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

snow ghost · 11-12-2010 11:16pm

Diddler1977 wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: OH NO! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

It's that Donegal Postman's fault.

Iancar29 · 11-12-2010 11:34pm

snow ghost wrote: »

You could always warn them of the potential, with the caveat that it may not happen.

But yeah, just in case Satan, high on snow, does ride out of Hell on a horned polar bear next weekend, it's probably best to give friends and relatives the heads-up that an icy Rapture could be upon us. Just try to remain calm and say it with words that don't cause unnecessary alarm or panic.
　

Ill just run around the house so wit this printed out on A1 size paper stuck to me! ...

... While Silently coughing " poetentially"

Birdnuts · 11-12-2010 11:36pm

derekon wrote: »

The latest GFS issued at 1800 hours this evening is still on track in respect of bitter arctic air flooding south over Ireland & Britain

It is due to kick in around 7pm Thursday evening. By Friday midday, -12oC upper 850hPA temperatures are spreading across the island. Cold enough for snow.

What is really interesting about this run is that it gets particularly cold in Ireland from the 19th December right up to the 27th December. Previous GFS runs had indicated Ireland would return to a milder pattern around Christmas Eve.

I realise this is all FI at the moment however we are now getting closer to the "reliable timeframe" for very cold air this Thursday 16/12/2010.

My wife is going to love this (she hates the snow!)

Not that I ever doubted him, but I am beginning to take seriously the latest forecast from MT. I think Ireland could be about to enter a very cold period from the end of next week for at least a timeframe of 10 days.

A White Christmas is now looking very likely for Ireland

Link to latest GFS attached......(I found the GFS to be pretty reliable during the recent very cold spell)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=1&ech=6

The latest British Met 120hr fax chart supports the above too:)

Iancar29 · 11-12-2010 11:53pm

Everyone look at this an get ur equipment togther!

Ya never know....;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOJQPz1s-1c

BEASTERLY · 11-12-2010 11:59pm

:eek:18z GFS is showing a b'easterly(hence my name) from friday night onwards, the east is back in for snow from friday night onwards.

Youd swear that they were replaying the model runs from this day 3 weeks ago. Benn on this rollercoaster have the photos:D. Hopefully theres even more snow this time.

lucy2010 · 12-12-2010 12:11am

Beasterly, what are the charts showing in terms of volumn of snow at this moment... I know they are unrelible but is last weeks snow a dusting in comparison to whats due ?

BEASTERLY · 12-12-2010 12:23am

lucy2010 wrote: »

Beasterly, what are the charts showing in terms of volumn of snow at this moment... I know they are unrelible but is last weeks snow a dusting in comparison to whats due ?

Well the 18z GFS is showing something similar to the first weekend of this snow for next weekend(anything up to a foot). But of course at this stage that is totaly unreliable and will change countless times betwween now and then. A slight change in the postioning of the low and the east could get nothing at all(tonights ECM).

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

up for anything · 12-12-2010 12:25am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

Be careful of what you pray for!

Iancar29 · 12-12-2010 12:39am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!

SVPL!..... I LIKE IT !

:D:D:D

BEASTERLY · 12-12-2010 12:46am

Iancar29 wrote: »

SVPL!..... I LIKE IT ! :D:D:D

Support our annual appeal for the SVPL:D

thetonynator · 12-12-2010 12:49am

I honestly think, much as i love snow, that the last thing this country needs at the moment is a polar low of any kind, not to mention a super vicious one. . :P

Iancar29 · 12-12-2010 12:53am

thetonynator wrote: »

I honestly think, much as i love snow, that the last thing this country needs at the moment is a polar low of any kind, not to mention a super vicious one. . :P

Ah ok then.... just have a MSVPL.... ( mini super vicious polar low) right over my house so!

:D:D

snow ghost · 12-12-2010 12:58am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well the 18z GFS is showing something similar to the first weekend of this snow for next weekend(anything up to a foot). But of course at this stage that is totaly unreliable and will change countless times betwween now and then. A slight change in the postioning of the low and the east could get nothing at all(tonights ECM).

We should know by thursday, for now just go with the rollercoaster and pray for a super vicious polar low!:D

Wait till we get a Cataclysmic-super-vicious-apoca-polar-low-maggedon-alypse, then we'll have to pray. :eek:

Mental Mickey · 12-12-2010 1:02am

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

Mmcd · 12-12-2010 1:03am

Is there anything to be said for way the models are putting back any mild air returning after this more and more a bit like the last spell?

BEASTERLY · 12-12-2010 1:04am

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

But I do.

BEASTERLY · 12-12-2010 1:06am

snow ghost wrote: »

Wait till we get a Cataclysmic-super-vicious-apoca-polar-low-maggedon-alypse, then we'll have to pray. :eek:

Where do I but one of these?

Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

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