Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

Sierra Oscar

I have exams next Friday and Saturday in Dublin . . . ill be following this thread eagerly over the next few days!

snow ghost

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I dont want ****ing snow!!!!!

Not even a little-bitty blizzard?

You may be in luck Mental Mickey, it may come in mega-proportions but not stay around too long, that way you could enjoy its glory for a couple of days and then be able to still get around easily enough afterwards.

stupidusername

The thought of this happening all over again makes me want to cry. And I don't even have to drive / walk in it.

wouldn't mind some rain right about now.

snow ghost

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Where do I but one of these?

Straight on the nose, when it comes for you.

littlefriend

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I have exams next Friday and Saturday in Dublin . . . ill be following this thread eagerly over the next few days!

Haha same! Was just about to post something similar. Wouldn't mind getting Fridays one out of the way and then Saturday to be cancelled. I'd like to know on Friday though that Saturday is cancelled rather than just finding out in the morning! Fingers crossed hey

Sierra Oscar

littlefriend wrote: »

Haha same! Was just about to post something similar. Wouldn't mind getting Fridays one out of the way and then Saturday to be cancelled. I'd like to know on Friday though that Saturday is cancelled rather than just finding out in the morning! Fingers crossed hey

Hehe yeah, should be interesting. Mine are on in the RDS for UCD - I wonder if they have ever had to cancel exams due to bad weather in the past . . . I guess there is always a first! :eek:

thetonynator

I wish it would just wait until christmas when we could have a couple of inchs of snow and more through the day which would then feck off and not come back until mid january or so when i'll want it again!

angelfire9

Ah lads no please no
I'm due a baby on Dec 19th
Spent the first week of December PRAYING that nothing would happen during the cold snap
The last few days of the thaw thanking God that the worst was over and i'd be ok
Now ye're telling me more bloody frost etc on the way
I wanna cry

gally74

hello all,

this does feel like 4 weeks ago when the first predictions came, in

first things first,

1. the pipe at my front wall didnt freeze, i buried it 4 weeks ago based on boards predictions. so thanks to all,

2. iNot surprised were in for another cold one, its just one of those winters,

.....solar cycle having an impact?

Harps

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Hehe yeah, should be interesting. Mine are on in the RDS for UCD - I wonder if they have ever had to cancel exams due to bad weather in the past . . . I guess there is always a first! :eek:

We had our exams cancelled last January, conveniently we had our first one just when the government ordered all the schools to close so they postponed them all for 10 days or so

Unfortunately as I mentioned earlier, I'm planning on going home next weekend so significant snow and I'll be stranded for a few days probably cause I have to cross the mountains to get out west

th3 s1aught3r

Snows cool. But the ice that comes after it is a nightmare, specially the footpaths and minor roads that arent treated
Still hoping it snows though:D

gally74

http://dld.bz/Apvx

Check it out

M.T. Cranium

Have been posting somewhat in error on the winter thread and not this more focused thread ... so this is the most recent of my posts and I will stay here now for these updates.

---

(comment in response to people on netweather saying GFS run "downgrades" the arctic blast) ... There are some people on netweather who could downgrade the Daniel Defoe storm to a light breeze. Really, the 00z GFS run has a huge blast of frigid air heading for the U.K. and Ireland on Thursday, and it digs in hard on Friday. I am going back over to see what the model run does beyond that, but the general idea is that it would have to be sub-freezing with the thickness contours as low as shown, plus the -10 C 850 mb covers the entire region and even the -15 C contour is in play. These are pretty robust looking maps, and we know that details can't be nailed down this far in advance, so wouldn't want to speculate on who gets how much snow.

M.T. Cranium

GFS run keeps very cold air around without much further cyclonic development to about 23 Dec then goes into default mode. I would expect more development in any case.

Next up was GEM (CMC) model, showing about the same as GFS out to 144h where it terminates. Will comment on ECM and UKMO when they update later.

The most certain thing so far is that it will turn very cold again and that some snow will occur (by Thursday-Friday). There is potential for heavy snow in the north and east, it all depends on the details now.

gbee

angelfire9 wrote: »

Ah lads no please no
I'm due a baby on Dec 19th
Spent the first week of December PRAYING that nothing would happen during the cold snap
The last few days of the thaw thanking God that the worst was over and i'd be ok
Now ye're telling me more bloody frost etc on the way
I wanna cry

In all fairness there is no need to be blaming God for not answering your prayers, isn't it God's will be done afterall, not the other way around.

You might at least pray to the ancient weather God's, we survived some massive weather shifts in the past, long before the Christian God came to our shores, maybe they are feeling a little left out, they haven't gone away you know.

gbee

gally74 wrote: »

hello all, .....solar cycle having an impact?

We are having impacts from several sources, all contributing. Perhaps the biggest influence is jet stream, followed by the flow rate or lack thereof of the usually warmer gulf stream.

Then we have the La Nina cold effect and the Gulf Of Mexico oil spill and oceanic effect. Combine that with a natural cooling cycle and all the effects add up to a considerable event or series of events.

M.T. Cranium

Had the impression the UKMO had fallen in line with the GFS. Meanwhile, the ECM has also shifted in the first part of the sequence to a stronger arctic push, then it seems to backtrack to the previous solution. Looks a bit wonky to me. Anyway, I continue to think all the models have a tendency to underplay the severity of this spell, past about Sunday 19th. This seems normal to me, the last ten-day severe period had premature endings suggested on various models before they got the hang of the situation.

Also,typically and a feature of northerlies,I don't like off the atlantic,this spell is preceded thursday by rain.

Redsunset

INCOMING!!!!!:D



Look like im going to be needing one of these to get around.

Su Campu

To what degree do you think forcings from your research will impact this system MT? You had penciled in a strong storm for around late next weekend. Do you reckon the models haven't latched onto that idea yet and are therefore underplaying things?

Min

Deleted User wrote: »

Also,typically and a feature of northerlies,I don't like off the atlantic,this spell is preceded thursday by rain.

That is what Met Eireann are giving also, but they say as it could turn to sleet and snow on the back edge of the system.

racso1975

Lads obviously there's 24 pages of discussion here. So if somebody could give me an idiots guide to next week. We talking bad frost? Snow? Heavy rain? And it seems from thursday on?

derekon

racso1975 wrote: »

Lads obviously there's 24 pages of discussion here. So if somebody could give me an idiots guide to next week. We talking bad frost? Snow? Heavy rain? And it seems from thursday on?

It will get progressively cooler from Monday onwards

Then the bite kicks in on Thursday as Artic air floods Ireland from the North

Daytime temps will then hover between -1 and +2. Snow will occur however the experts here (of which I am not one) should be able to determine where will get the snow by this Tuesday/Wednesday

Simply put, we are in for another severe Arctic spell

racso1975

racso1975 wrote: »

Lads obviously there's 24 pages of discussion here. So if somebody could give me an idiots guide to next week. We talking bad frost? Snow? Heavy rain? And it seems from thursday on?

All of those in reverse order.
Daily updates in mt craniums forecast thread
So read that every morning especially from thursday onwards and you'll get an idea.
there will be other threads speculating on and discussing the details of each day but that one will be a good start for you.

Pangea

Well My idea of a huge winter ,is havin a big snow storm with at least one foot of snow ,and it lasting for ages like 1947 One can only dream about that.

derekon

Deleted User wrote: »

All of those in reverse order.
Daily updates in mt craniums forecast thread
So read that every morning especially from thursday onwards and you'll get an idea.

Never thought of MT's forecast, Black Briar. Good thinking!

Brenireland

their is a possibility do that this could go all pear shaped & result in RAIN,which could see an invasion from the happy thawers...:mad:

Musicman2000

Brenireland wrote: »

their is a possibility do that this could go all pear shaped & result in RAIN,which could see an invasion from the happy thawers...:mad:

no its a front pushing south that introduces the cold air, it will be rain on its leading edge, but as the very cold air digs in behind it prob will turn to snow in areas, so dont panic its not mild air

Min

racso1975 wrote: »

Lads obviously there's 24 pages of discussion here. So if somebody could give me an idiots guide to next week. We talking bad frost? Snow? Heavy rain? And it seems from thursday on?

I'm on page 9 - set mine at 40 posts per page.

Redsunset

If the colder air catch up with that front on thursday we would be seeing a wintry mix.

This chart won't play out exactly like this so just an idea.