Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

did you have exams? Hope they went well now bring on snowmageddon!:D

well my course has exams in february, so no christmas exams. very happy about that because i've done those exams, and dont have any until may. so happy, so a white christmas would make me rather ecstatic

Pangea

Poly wrote: »

Don't worry folks Noel Dempsey will be having daily meetings with that eejit from the NRA, that's if it doesn't interfere with his winter sun holiday of course.

Agreed, the scottish transport minister just resigned due to failing to deal with the crisis last week propery. Dempsey was putting sun tan on hmself last winter while the rest of us couldnt even get moving on 'his' roads. He should of went for that.

derekon

derekon wrote: »

Totally agree.

Met Eireann have a public responsibility in terms of weather forecasting and should not unduly worry the wider public

ME is perfectly aware of the upcoming cold spell however I am sure their forecasts will reflect the seriousness of the upcoming artic blast as the week develops

Against that though...contrast ME's output as an all Ireland service with what the UKMO are already willing to say about the weather in NI towards the weekend.
The ukmo aren't afraid to commit themselves and we don't live in parallel weather universes.
It's the same Derry and Antrim covered by both services.

snow ghost

derekon wrote: »

Totally agree.

Met Eireann have a public responsibility in terms of weather forecasting and should not unduly worry the wider public

ME is perfectly aware of the upcoming cold spell however I am sure their forecasts will reflect the seriousness of the upcoming artic blast as the week develops

You're right derekon.

But I think it would be no harm if ME did speak of events such as the potential one at the end of next week, most of the Irish people are sophisticated enough to understand that it would be them talking of possibilities that may not happen.

I suspect there may be a "we don't want to be the next Michael Fish" or blamed by the public and business community syndrome going on that ensures that many forecasts are more lack lustre than they'd like themselves.

hellboy99

Think I will go out and do the food Xmas shop stock up today or tomorrow just to be on the safe side.

Scubadevils

I agree that ME should at least indicate the risk later in the week and on to next weekend. Especially given the time of year - if we had anything like the disruption of the last spell after next weekend it could ruin many a Christmas... also very damaging to business in the last few retail days up to Christmas on the week of the 20th. If ME put out now that the risk exists, at least people can prepare this week and ensure they have all Christmas shopping etc done.

On another note, I was reading the model discussion threads on netweather this morning, my God there are some mixed views there in terms of what the models depict! Think I'll stay away from there for now and stick to here for updates.

maquiladora

Scubadevils wrote: »

I agree that ME should at least indicate the risk later in the week and on to next weekend.

She did say it could get very wintry. Its just too far out to be confident of exact details.

nacho libre

snow ghost wrote: »

You're right derekon.

But I think it would be no harm if ME did speak of events such as the potential one at the end of next week, most of the Irish people are sophisticated enough to understand that it would be them talking of possibilities that may not happen.

I suspect there may be a "we don't want to be the next Michael Fish" or blamed by the public and business community syndrome going on that ensures that many forecasts are more lack lustre than they'd like themselves.

are they though snow ghost? we tend to remember when met eireann get it badly wrong rather than right. remember the infamous Donegal incident.

with this in mind i would love to have heard the lady on the farming forecast say of a foot or two of snow on the way, but met eireann have to be responsible. it is her job to disapassionate and not cater for our whims. if she ramps up and then it doesn't turn out like that she'll have a lot of heat on her from the public, whereas someone online is free from that kind of intense scrutiny .
Either way talk of snowmageddon is way over the top at this stage. M.T. mentioned 5-10 cm of snow, this is not a huge amount of snow. With some of the talk you'd swear 30 - 40cms of snow was on the way. yes seasoned viewers know not to take such talk too seriously, but i don't think it's fair on casual viewers, like that fearful woman who mentioned she is heavily pregnant, to be hyperbolic six- seven days removed. if the models are still showing the same evolution on wednesday, perhaps a site alert would be appropriate around then as it's in the reliable time frame.

Mountainsandh

Pangea wrote: »

I was more concentrated on whether your one was able to finish a sentence without gasping for a saliva swallow than the weather itself.

I'm so glad you mentioned this, I thought it was me being odd .
I'm sure she's really qualified but I just can't watch the woman, all I do is count the seconds between swallows. Got to show the thread to hubby who thinks I'm mad.

nacho libre

Mountainsandh wrote: »

I'm so glad you mentioned this, I thought it was me being odd .
I'm sure she's really qualified but I just can't watch the woman, all I do is count the seconds between swallows. Got to show the thread to hubby who thinks I'm mad.

give her a chance. she is only new to tv forecasting. i remember a time when Jean Byrne was quite nervous in front of the camera.

snow ghost

nacho libre wrote: »

are they though snow ghost? we tend to remember when met eireann get it badly wrong rather than right. remember the infamous Donegal incident.

with this in mind i would love to have heard the lady on the farming forecast say of a foot or two of snow on the way, but met eireann have to be responsible. it is her job to disapassionate and not cater for our whims. if she ramps up and then it doesn't turn out like that she'll have a lot of heat on her from the public, whereas someone online is free from that kind of intense scrutiny .
Either way talk of snowmageddon is way over the top at this stage. M.T. mentioned 5-10 cm of snow, this is not a huge amount of snow. With some of talk you'd swear 30 - 40 cm of snow on the way. yes seasoned vieer know not to take this too seriously, but i don't think it's fair on casual viewers, like that fearful woman who mentioned she is heavily pregnant, to be hyperbolic six- seven days removed. if the models are still showing the same evolution on wednesday, perhaps a site alert would be appropriate around then as it's in the reliable time frame.

I agree nacho - I just think there is room to briefly say 'long way out, but interesting potentials are being predicted on the models that could lead to severe arctic conditions, however we wont know until closer to next week end, one to keep an eye on, but no need to panic at this stage'.

The Donegal episode was a good example of how media hyperbole following a forecast lead to intense public and business condemnation of ME. I don't doubt that they have to consider this as well as not causing undue public panic, and it curtails some forecasts to an extent.

Pangea

Yes Nacho, snowmaggedon talks are probably OTT , and now some say 5-10cms. By the way everyone is talking I was thinking this could be a winter remembered for centuries, but 5-10c cms is a sobering cupful of snow.

nacho libre wrote: »

give her a chance. she is only new to tv forecasting. i remember a time when Jean Byrne was quite nervous in front of the camera.

Dont think thats something you can overcome, she wasnt actually nervous , its just shes not the best presenter with all that swallowing etc. Wasnt Joan Blackburn dropped because of a diction problem.

Riamfada

nacho libre wrote: »

give her a chance. she is only new to tv forecasting. i remember a time when Jean Byrne was quite nervous in front of the camera.

Who wouldnt be nervous with you lot watching

isle of man

Deleted User wrote: »

Saw that.

It bombards the isle of man and wales instead.Thats what I expect to

o i do hope your right:D

WolfeIRE

I would expect charts to upgrade the longevity/severity of the cold spell in the next couple of runs. There are huge discrepancies between all of them at present and I think BB, Maq and MT have already alluded to this. Expect a falling in line of models in the next 12-24hrs.

Regarding warnings and whether we should be prepared....i would prefer to be warned of impending severe weather well in advance as opposed to 2-3 days. That is taking into account the potential for 5-7 day warnings being based on low-medium confidence. That's what we are here to do. Talk about what's to come and inform each other of the most likely outcome based on current weather data.

Expect upgrades soon and expect all mainstream media to start picking up on this.

darkman2

I think there could be snowfall in many places through Thursday as a band of rain moves South. Whilst it will be rain early Thursday morning initially it does not take long for the cold air to flood South. Don't be supprised if a good part of Thursday is heavy and persistent snowfall.

On the downside there should not be much in the way of ice on Thursday morning so the snow probrably not settling as readily as this week but still the ground temperatures are very cold and this should compensate somewhat.

Looking beyond Thursday IMO is a bit pointless in terms of detail but it is likely to remain very cold.

sunbabe08

Pangea wrote: »

Agreed, the scottish transport minister just resigned due to failing to deal with the crisis last week propery. Dempsey was putting sun tan on hmself last winter while the rest of us couldnt even get moving on 'his' roads. He should of went for that.

i know, i dont get that at all.

Scubadevils

Scubadevils wrote: »

On another note, I was reading the model discussion threads on netweather this morning, my God there are some mixed views there in terms of what the models depict! Think I'll stay away from there for now and stick to here for updates.

Some Views there are expressed by imby posters with highish post counts on a weather only site.
I find it hard to fathom how a person with a 1000 or 3000 posts on there posts rubbish or asks the most basic of questions.
It's not difficult to forecast trends in weather and then particulars.

It's got a core membership of 1000's in southern and southeast England too who if they don't see and Easterly will say a model is rubbish.
It's complete ignorance if you ask me.
I do read NW but I scan down through it past the rubbish posters and read just the opinions of those who know what they are talking about.

nacho libre

snow ghost wrote: »

I agree nacho - I just think there is room to briefly say 'long way out, but interesting potentials are being predicted on the models that could lead to severe arctic conditions, however we wont know until closer to next week end, one to keep an eye on, but no need to panic at this stage'.

The Donegal episode was a good example of how media hyperbole following a forecast lead to intense public and business condemnation of ME. I don't doubt that they have to consider this as well as not causing undue public panic, and it curtails some forecasts to an extent.

yes, that's the problem you'll have rags going over the top, which will then lead to panic buying. so it would be foolish to commit at this stage. the lady did mention it may get quite wintry at the weekend. i think that's appropriate for now. i'm sure as the week goes on, if the models hold steadfast to current evolutions for late next week, met eireann will issue an advance warning.

i'm tempted to just avoid this forum for several days and go back to the old method of forecasting: see what's falling from the sky next thursday evening. i can't handle the stress of it all:pac:

derekon

Deleted User wrote: »

Some Views there are expressed by imby posters with highish post counts on a weather only site.
I find it hard to fathom how a person with a 1000 or 3000 posts on there posts rubbish or asks the most basic of questions.
It's not difficult to forecast trends in weather and then particulars.

It's got a core membership of 1000's in southern and southeast England too who if they don't see and Easterly will say a model is rubbish.
It's complete ignorance if you ask me.
I do read NW but I scan down through it past the rubbish posters and read just the opinions of those who know what they are talking about.

So its kind of like this board when there is talk of snow , eh?

Cantona's Collars

I know it's the Daily Mail who can be sensationalist and a UK centric article but it makes interesting reading nonetheless.They have nailed their colours with regards to a Winter storm and very cold spell.Here's the link(article too long to qoute here) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1337904/Return-big-freeze-Another-EIGHT-inches-snow-hit-Britain-week.html

Musicman2000

derekon wrote: »

So its kind of like this board when there is talk of snow , eh?

Yes its a joke over on netweather the slightest change on the models and if they dont like it, there is toys being thrown out of the pram bigtime:):)

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Yes Nacho, snowmaggedon talks are probably OTT , and now some say 5-10cms. By the way everyone is talking I was thinking this could be a winter remembered for centuries, but 5-10c cms is a sobering cupful of snow.


Dont think thats something you can overcome, she wasnt actually nervous , its just shes not the best presenter with all that swallowing etc. Wasnt Joan Blackburn dropped because of a diction problem.

the swallowing could be an expression of her nervousness. Jean used to be hesistant in her delivery and pause for breath in the beginning. Grimes is right, with our intense scrutiny, what beginner wouldn't be nervous giving a forecast! regarding an epic snowfall, expect it when it's not anticipitated. the longer the cold goes on, we might hopefully at some stage get a significant snowfall from an altantic system pushing up from the southwest meeting stiff resistance from entrenched cold air as it pushes north eastwards. that's what happened in 1947- there does seem to some parallels between background signals back then and now, so who knows!

snow ghost

zerks wrote: »

I know it's the Daily Mail who can be sensationalist and a UK centric article but it makes interesting reading nonetheless.They have nailed their colours with regards to a Winter storm and very cold spell.Here's the link(article too long to qoute here) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1337904/Return-big-freeze-Another-EIGHT-inches-snow-hit-Britain-week.html

The Daily Mail errs strongly towards a global warming skeptic agenda that many of its readership would advocate, so if they even get a sniff of cold weather they grasp at it as more eivdence to disprove global warming.

snow ghost

derekon wrote: »

So its kind of like this board when there is talk of snow , eh?

Guilty as charged!

derekon

snow ghost wrote: »

Guilty as charged!

LOL ! I will include myself in this too..........:D

lucernarian

I found the post on IWN - I understand it's actually the thoughts of M.T. Cranium - to be quite interesting as it's thrown down the gauntlet for a very cold outbreak.

But I have seen these sorts of synoptics over Ireland before. (Specifically over Ireland, not the general synoptics) February/March 2007 I think? I saw charts with -10 degree 850hPa temperatures over much of Ireland yet only had sporadic shower development and those showers couldn't even reach much of Leinster or Connaught. I also remember comma lows crossing much of Ireland from the north only to fall as sleet in most parts. I was suprised that Monday night's occlusion gave as much snow as it did, even with the very cold surface temperatures ahead of the front.

This is the problem with more northerly outbreaks, the 500-1000 hPa thickness values need to be that bit lower with a Polar Maritime airmass than with Polar Continental airmasses if you want more snow. However, northerlies can generate Polar Lows, and more shallow lows than the average easterly. 850-1000 hPa thickness charts are a bit more definitive for predicting snow, based on what I found over the last 2 weeks in any case.

Essentially, I'm not expecting much from the first couple of days of this cold spell, except for cold and bright days around most of Ireland. I think that Donegal and Northern Ireland could have a tough time of it however, much like late December last year. But with all that cold air and instability, if some features do crop up around Ireland during the weekend, the potential is definitely there for more widespread snow.

I hear Netweather mentioned alot but I don't use it particularly as the regional forums require registration and I'm not that bothered. I imagine though that IMBYism wouldn't be so much of a problem in the regional threads, when looking at models?

nacho libre

if the isobars are fairly tight it should help to overcome the modifying problem from the atlantic, and also help to push showers that bit further south.

lucernarian

In this case, I'm not so worried about modification as the airmass really is awfully cold. With a nice difference in temperatures between an atlantic ocean at about 10-11 degrees and a very cold polar airmass, it will only aid convection which will bring widespread snow showers to much of Ireland. That's mainly what I'm expecting for Thursday and Friday.

Deep Easterly

It is interesting (I think) that the forecast pattern of having slack Arctic sourced lows settling over and around Ireland bears an uncanny resemblance to the pattern that formed this time last year:

ECMWF chart for the 21st December 2009: (06hrs)




ECMWF (00z) forecast for the 18th December this year: (144hrs)



subtle difference of coarse in the wider overall Atlantic pattern but I'd much rather see that low center heading in over the UK or lodging to our south. We would have a much better chance of seeing some snow further inland.