Current Weather indications

Gonzo · 28-12-2004 6:13pm

yeh i remember all the way through my primary and secondary schooling that we had easterly plunges almost on a yearly basis, sometimes more and I took it for granted that we would have an easterly blast every january or february, the snow from these used to be amazing, often bands of snow or prolonged snow showers lasting for up to a week with a foot of snow or more but hardly any sunshine and temperatures struggling to -1 in the afternoons..what i didnt realize was come 1993/94 would be the end of it all and here we are starting 2005 still waiting for our next easterly blast since then...

Supercell · 28-12-2004 6:45pm

Earthman wrote:

On another note, just to re assure longfield when the cold plunge and associated showers come from the East, the west of the country(even the midlands to a lesser extent) stay bone dry sunny and cold with just the odd flurry. Whilst any part of the exposed East is being whitened with unending fury

Heh, problem is those snaps appear to be becoming less and less regular events here...although I suppose you could say overdue ...
Still all of January and Febuary to go though (and March!) so all to play for yet

28-12-2004 6:50pm

Gonzo wrote:

what i didnt realize was come 1993/94 would be the end of it all and here we are starting 2005 still waiting for our next easterly blast since then...

Twas a regular feature alright and snow in the east was common and substantial from it. January 1987 is another one I remember in this area,a drift completely covered the car in front of the house at home which was typical of 4 and 5 feet drifts(nothing on 1982 though) and thats at sea level.

A local farmer and i were talking about this the other night, he lives at about 800ft asl and right throughout the 80's he had every winter at some point to bring a milk tank down to Arklow with a tractor because the collection truck could get anywhere near.
He hasnt had to do that in over ten years!!

Now something has changed for that to happen.
Questions for God...

Why are the Easterlies happening lately in march or April instead of Jan/Feb and why has the mean temp(as I suspect is the case) gone up in the East such that cold plunges don't have that same effect as they drop the temps by the same amount but as the starting level is a degree higher, the temp is nearly always a degree too high for consistant snow.

By the way weathercheck if you have the time can you dig out the stats/maps from the week 14-20th of feb '94-at least I think that was the year( I know it included valentines day as I remember another ahem... incident from around then

)
So we can have a look.

ninebeanrows · 28-12-2004 9:36pm

It sure looks like a nice set up

This was probably the height of it

I was only a wee tot

i do remember snow being so much more common when i was
younger, even in the 90's i remember decent snows as a kid!
Little did i expect that 5 lying snow events would be almost
extinct in Dublin these days :rolleyes:

Danno · 28-12-2004 9:55pm

1995/1996 was the last easterly blast that made it to Ireland.

28-12-2004 11:26pm

Weathercheck wrote:

It sure looks like a nice set up

This was probably the height of it

I was only a wee tot
i do remember snow being so much more common when i was
younger, even in the 90's i remember decent snows as a kid!
Little did i expect that 5 lying snow events would be almost
extinct in Dublin these days :rolleyes:

Yeah that produced a lot of heavy snow showers in off the Irish sea iirc.
6 or 8 inches here

Scubadevils · 29-12-2004 7:14pm

Hi all,

Has anyone got any thoughts on the below link outlining what they feel for the winter?

http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/globalclimate/predictions_of_winter_2004_2005_in_europe.php

I am very new to this and don't really understand much of its content but it does seem to point to a colder winter

Apologies if its all repeated stuff that I have missed, but as I say, new to this

...living in hope for some decent snow

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2004 7:34pm

Afternoon all and Felix

Just dropping by to let you know that
that easterly blast beginning around January 13th - 15th
is still looking ON

If you cna survive the next 2 weeks
of mostly mild and zonal weather then Mid- January looks
like bringing us all a treat

GFS is now beginning to pick up on the trend and
a chart like this has bags of potential

Hopefully i can make it 2 good predictions

Look east at Mid Febuaryhttp://www.weathercheck.net

ninebeanrows · 30-12-2004 9:37pm

You wouldnt think it now but theres a good chance
that thee may be some snow on Saturday evening
and into Sunday in many areas in Ireland, obviously
northern areas most at risk. It comes about as an intense
cold front brings a dramatic drop in temperatue late Saturday
which is likely to spark of some TS's and torrential rain with
temperatures set to plummet 6-8c in a few hours!

Later on Saturday is when the snow risk arrives

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=53&lon=-6&locationID=297

Scubadevils · 05-01-2005 7:04pm

Weathercheck - are you still feeling positive about mid January???

ninebeanrows · 05-01-2005 10:15pm

A change will occur mid-late January and a change to a
colder weather pattern will occur

Although as of now nothing severe

Scubadevils · 06-01-2005 1:01am

thanks, lets hope it becomes severe

ninebeanrows · 08-01-2005 3:37pm

Hi The upcoming week will see Ireland hammered by another 2 beasty low pressure systems :eek:

NO.1 Sunday 22z Monday 06z
A developmental jet stream is going wild across the atlantic and this week is going to stay wild! Later tomorrow a rapidly developing feature will ride up the western coast, the center staying about 100miles west of the west coast. Gale 9 or storm force 10 winds are forecast for coastal areas with land gales also.
Mean Windspeed between the times stated above will range from 45Knots or 55mph on the west coast, 37knots or 45mph ont he east and south coasts and even 30Knots or 38mph inland! Looking at the 925hpa winds only a few hundred meters above the ground which gives you a good guess a wind gusts, suggest that wind gust across the whole country could reach 72Knots or 84mph. I suggest that Eastern and Southern coastal counties are at risk of 60-75mph gusts with the west and northwest at risk of gusts of 70-85mph.
The Low pressure will rattle away to the north and plummel into Shetland with Hurricane force winds :eek:

NO.2 Tuesday 12z - Wednesday 12z
At the moment the exact track of this storm is somewhat uncertain although it posses a severe risk to northern areas. Another rapidly developing system will approach the west coast, almost a carbon copy of its predecestor but it will track right up the coast. This Low looks like deepening earlier and increasing windspeeds on its southern flank. At the moment im particularly worried for northwestern areas, where the risk of 62mph sustained winds poss
a alarming threat. At the moment i'll be conservative and update you further later. Im expecting the Low Pressure to deepen over Ulster and wrap round some severe winds. Again Southern and Eastern Ireland will see gust past 70mph with the possibility of higher gusts if the track adjusts slightly. Meanwhile the western coast and espeially the north and northwester coast are at risk of gusts passing 80mph and possibly a good deal higher.

Overall the most active period of weather for a number of years, not only is the wind the only worry, over 100mm of rain may fall over the coming week in
a number of areas and this ontop of the already sodden ground will lead to flooding.

Keep the hatches battened down folks and i'll update you with any changes

08-01-2005 4:05pm

Thread merged

All winter forecasting in this thread please

ninebeanrows · 08-01-2005 5:20pm

I am growing in concern now that Tuesday Evening
could see a really really bad LP. The latest run deepens the Low
immensely but luckily for the East coast its just of the west
coast but for anyone in the north or west please check
your forecasts before you leave, its just too close for comfort
a chart like this makes you Shudder...

Remember the positioning of that Low will change......

Dear oh Dear this time it could well be serious and this
is just after another storm 24 hours before could cause
widspread damage not to mention the severe storm
last night.............

ninebeanrows · 08-01-2005 7:46pm

A very disturbed picture being painted now, Western areas look
like being hit by winds possibly touching 100mph on Tuesday
evening :eek:

The eye of that storm is heading for the west coast of Scotland

ninebeanrows · 08-01-2005 9:44pm

Rather stark develoment of a feature to approach here tomorrow
I've done an analysis

Thought i'd open a new one for the fresh storms ready to brew in the atlantic over the coming week a quick run-down on the main events -:

Sunday Warning of Severe Gales - Gusts to 75mph
A rapidly developing feature 500miles south-south-west of
Ireland is currently showing up very well on satellite
imagery, infact the extent of development is quite stark
so early in the systems development.

Latest Satellite Imagery

The track of the LP will bring it just to the northwest of Scotland
at midnight on Sunday:

Details on the feature :-
The systems associated warm front will move into the southwest
approaches at midday Sunday and spread swiftly northeastwards
giving upto 20-25mm of rainfall in places. The associated Cold front
will soon arrive into Ireland by 21z with a reasonable amount of
action on front with squalls and TS's possible. Wind Speed will begin
to pick up by 15z and will slowly rise througout the evening. Winds
will peak at around Midnight in the far west and especially over
Ireland. Mean Speeds of 40Knots along western coasts with gusts as
high as 65-70Kn possible. Up the Irish Sea Mean Winds will be 35Knots
with gusts to 65Knots possible. Over Land mean windspeeds will be
highest over Ireland and Wales at around 25-30knots with gusts to
60Knots. Western Scotland will then be affected by the most severe
gales just after midnight with gusts as high as 75knots possible
although 70knots is more likely. The cold front will swing
through England introducing the higher winds around midnight also.

I am keen to point out with latest satellite imagery things may exceed
what i anticipate above.

Onto Tuesday where intense developments are likely. Worst
affected areas will be Western Wales and England, Scotland
and Ireland. Areas at risk of really severe wind gusts are
Western and Northern Ireland, Western and Northern Scotland.
A rapidly developing low pressure is expect to run up the
West coast of Ireland with severe Force 11 (poss. force 12 winds)
on its southern flank. The Low looks like it will thankfully stay
off shore hopefully reducing the liklihood of damage. A quick
summary reveals that During Tuesday afternoon Western Ireland
could see sustained 50Knot winds with gusts as high as 80knots
not ruled out. I'll update you further on this later or in
the morning as UK Met does not develop as an intense
feature as the Meso and GFS

Batten those hatches especially those in the west

ninebeanrows · 12-01-2005 2:49pm

Im good, too good !!! But just look how accurate my
Winter Forecast was, what startles me is i picked out
this stormy weather to a tee :eek:

http://www.weathercheck.net/winter

I issued the forecast at the very beginning of December :eek:

Gonzo · 12-01-2005 2:54pm

What happened to the cold artic blast that was meant to happen around january 13th to 15th, I presume thats not gonna happen now.? is there any chance of us getting any decent snow between now and the end of February?

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2005 1:22pm

Hi Gonzo well as with all LRF's there never 70% right there more
around the 40% mark!! Usually the dates which are predicted
are ball point dates but that northerly blast which i predicted
is looking likely a few days later than predicted. From the
20th of January we look like entering a colder regime
with a Norherly blast around that period

Danno · 14-01-2005 3:01am

Lets hope so, this zonality is getting alot milder.

Scubadevils · 14-01-2005 6:55pm

Has anyone any thoughts on this supposed cold snap that might be on the way? From observing both the TWO and net-weathers forums there seems to be mixed feelings but certainly steers towards snow. Obviously they are talking about what snow may affect parts of the UK and little old Ireland is not really mentioned. I know little (or nothing) about the various charts but I presume if it is to be a nw,ly turning to a n,ly and possibly a ne,ly that Ireland should see some snow action???

ninebeanrows · 14-01-2005 8:06pm

Ye From the 20th of January things should start turning colder
although the length and intensity to any cold spell is unknown

I have updates a couple a times a week on my webpage

Gonzo · 14-01-2005 11:11pm

it would be a miracle if we see some decent proper snowfall (5 inchs+) in this country, i reckon its over 10 years since ive seen anything like that were I live, over the past few years the weather forecasters announce towards spring that it has been the warmest winter in a long time and this year is no exception so far, i read somewhere that this is the mildest winter in 30 years so far. I would love to think that this winter is the final extremely mild winter and that we can go back to the great winters of the 80s and early 90s...anyway im really hoping that we see something decent next week.

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2005 11:13am

Well I'll Highlight something we should pay attention to, on Monday
night a cold shot from the north could deliver some hefty amounts
of snow to the North as cold air digs in behind the cold front and a
massive rash of showers approach. This will be shortlived even if
you do get snow though and it will be mild again before Tuesday ends.

What we are looking further ahead it the firm chance of a 3 day northerly
blast beginning on January 21st. There will be nothing special about the blast and it will probably be a dry affair for the east. But what it does give us is the chance for 3 days Hard Frost and 72hrs where snow is possible and so far this
winter we have not had that chance so i say before we moan about
there not being massive LP systems moving south on the Northerly
flow lets than ourselves for getting a decent northerly blast.

Western and Northern areas will fair similar to the Christmas Cold Snap
with the amount of precipitation probably less.

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2005 1:29pm

Et voila, Tuesday is interesting

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=53&lon=-6&locationID=297

Scubadevils · 15-01-2005 2:01pm

Thats typical. I am away in Amsterdam on Tuesday and Wednesday and will probably miss snow here in Dublin :mad:

Gonzo · 15-01-2005 3:15pm

more than likely you will miss nothing:( it really needs to be a proper long easterly blast that guarantee's us here in the east anything more than an inch or two of snow....once again i can see us being short changed on the snow as its a dry, sunny, frosty northerly with alot of snow in northern ireland coasts, scotland and all down the east coast of uk. We still have February left so hopefully that'll provide us snow starved lovers in the east something to be happy about...all we can do is wait and see what happens

ninebeanrows · 15-01-2005 3:35pm

Just to clear up something:Tuesday's cold is only going to be very
short lived lasting from Monday 9pm to around Tuesday 1800

The longer but drier cold spell is likely this Weekend and is likely
to last fro 60-84hrs

Scubadevils · 15-01-2005 3:36pm

Yeah, thats true. To be honest at this stage of having not seen much snow for years I am almost happy even just to see snow falling, even if it does not stick. So hopefully that easterly will arrive before winters out and we get a good few inches! Maybe the late winter of 2005 will go down in history along with all the other classics

(doubt it though

)

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