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Current Weather indications
Comments
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Yeah it looks interesting.
But it would have to be sustained for quite some time for to have the desired effect (
)
Reason I say that is, the temps over Europe at day time are only hovering around zero and not below.
During the many cold snaps of the 80's, the daytime temps in Europe were below minus ten and as low as minus 15 or 20 at night.
temps around freezing wouldnt be suffecient as that air when it gets to Ireland would be a few degrees warmer.
Best guess at least a week would be needed so the air is dragged from the far east of Europe and not near Europe.
Even at that warsaw in poland is zero at the moment-that air by the time it got here could be +4 or +5
What you want to be looking at aswell then weathercheck is the furthest source of the air(Is it Russia or siberia for instance which would be good) and for how long it would be sustained-as I say because most of the continent isnt cold enough yet, you would need at least a feed from the far east for a week to have a significant effect on Ireland.0 -
Hi again all the 6z Ensenmbles again show that the GFS was
a mild outlier, 5/9 runs go for an Easterly..
And Earthman i really dont think we should worry
about the depth of cold, a pool of Sub -15c 850hpa
is forming over Eastern Europe as we speak, the Easterly
if it comes off would only give -10 850hpa temps to the
east unlike say -15- -20 we would have gotten in the 80's
but this is still well cold enough and if the synoptics
show an Easterly it will be cold enough believe me
Now are we on the brink of a "real" Easterly Blast to last
over a week?? Lets wait and see 0 -
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No Earthman its even longerThey say a week is a long time in politics it's also a long time in Weather.
The coming week has an equal chance of turning into a memorable
event or mild nothingness, i think that the amount of lying snow
on the coninent will be the crucual matter as to whether this
comes off, Andrew owner of Metcheck says that the 12z will
have loads of data and should straigten things out a bit..
But really we'll have to wait to see how much snow falls over
Europe in the next few days, what is encouraging is that western
Europe is going to really cool down with daytime maxima below
Freezing across much of France and Germany by Monday 0 -
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Stunning DWD again shows a Frigid Easterly Blast at T -144hrs or less
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_144.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501231200_168.gif0 -
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Before i head of to the MET
You might be wondering why TWO has gone bust...
Here's why!! Were on the verge of a prolonged Easterly Blast
It sets in around this time
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
And is set to finish
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif
Other models hint at it too!
ECM drags in a nice Easterly Flow
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!chart.gif
And DWD Sticks to its guns
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_120.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_140.gif
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/gme_cl_EU/l/xl/200501230000_168.gif
So there you go, were on the verge of a specatcular weather
event, now lets hope it comes off!0 -
evenwith the disruption and increase in mortality a prolonged spell of cold weather would bring ?Weathercheck wrote:So there you go, were on the verge of a specatcular weather
event, now lets hope it comes off!
jd0 -
Weathercheck wrote:It sets in around this time
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif
And is set to finish
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif
6 days only? Thats hardly prolonged
Thats mightn't have a big impact here, if its day two of it in Ireland before it's cold enough to snow-depends on whats gonna happen in the Irish Sea for troughs etc and its too far away to know as yet-it could bring a lot of snow though and then again it might not but it's 50:50
For the record the 1982 Easterly lasted nearly a forthnight and I got ten days off school because around here all the roads were blocked and by blocked I mean they disappeared, the snow blew over the ditches and you could walk straight across the fields 12 feet and more above the road.
What happened was the cold air collided with an Atlantic system, it started snowing heavily with a gale on a wenesday night iirc and never stopped at all untill lunchtime saturday.
The snow here was 3 feet deep with 15 feet drifts...
Convert that to cm's 0 -
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Summary of next 7 days..
Dull, cloudy, feeling cool with some drizzle and damn depressing
Lets give winter another few weeks, we deserve something..
At the moment were in a horrible rut, but models do change
and have done in the past 0 -
The Calm before the bite?
Well im about to pull one of my crazy predictions again, believe at
your peril Overall Consensus is for a settled dull and cloudy 7 days
but as we move towards February 5th (around then) i have a feeling
that our weather is going to turn alot more seasonal..A few organisations
are hinting at this and the latest Numerical models back this theory up..
Were talking about a very sketchy timescale where predictions are
not often the best but model agreement gives me more confidence.
We are now around T +180hrs away from the critical point..
O.K anyway my prediction is for a prolonged (5+ day) cold spell with winds
from the East or Northeast. High Pressure to the north and Low Pressure
to the south bringing the most snow to southern parts although all
areas are at risk.
I'll give you more on my "wacky prediction" later 0 -
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Interesting...
Just looking at accuweather website, they indicate colder weather starting around the 1st of Feb with snow forecast from the 3rd. Are they a reliable source and do they know something we don't!!!
http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_forecast_6to10day.asp?postalcode=DUBLIN&ufdb=EIDW&metric=1&partner=&traveler=
How are you getting on in the Met office weathercheck, getting any inside info 0 -
Them forecasts are computer generated are to tell you the truth,
they're rubbish
Ye getting to know the ropes of the MET and see how
hard work is
Up in the main area called CAFO today and nearly nobody was
there as the weather is so dull. Even in this weather
frost is not an issue due to the cloud so all you had was was
3 or 4 people.
Today was the worst day sending of letters to personal AWS
owners. Didnt see your name Earthman?? Do you do rainfall?
Anyways that was today and tomorrow is the end of my adventure 0 -
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I recorded it for over a year here and had to give up due to time pressures and not being able to guarantee being here at the specefied recording times.Weathercheck wrote:Today was the worst day sending of letters to personal AWS
owners. Didnt see your name Earthman?? Do you do rainfall?
I am however planning a fully automated recording station for here soon,I'll have a weblink for that mothman style 0 -
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Been busy of late with the new looking website
Just to say that there could be a bit of rough ride
from Friday and possibly a storm on Saturday, dont
worry i'll keep you posted and SMS users i'll be
back sending those SMS's tomorrow 0 -
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Saturday night and Sunday Morning are looking very interesting
for Ulster and North Leinster could be some small accumalations
espcially over mountains. Although snow will be wetter at
lower levels temporary covering is possible
So from Sunday 00z to Sunday 12z is when we should
watch out for some snow 0 -
Gale force winds + band of snow = ??
Tomorrow morning from 00z to 12z
could be extrmemely interesting
With all the ingrdients for a period
of snow in the north and east through
the period. What looks like being even more
severe is the strength of the wind with
gusts to 70mph in the North and East
which will drive out any doubt that the
precipitation will not fall as snow.
Northern and Eastern could face some
treacherous conditions tomorrow and the
Irish Met i feel are definately underplaying
this one so stay on guard. It will also
feel absolutely bitter on in the strong
and gale force northerly winds.
Upto 3-5cm's of snow are possible with
drifting in the strong winds, high ground in
the north and East will recieve much more.
So North Leinster and Ulster are likely to
worst affected with possibly upto 5cm's
of lying snow in places by late morning.
Enjoy and stay safe as it will be wild! 0 -
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Its February and we thought winter was beginning to say
farewell but there is growing support for the coldest outbreak
of the winter later this week. It all pivots about High Pressure
Building to our north as we move through the week. If
as the GFS ENS's show with 9/10 agreeing :eek: We
would be entering the most prolonged and coldest
period for a few years. Northerly winds would veer
northeasterly and then an Easterly Blast would ensue.
This would bring 5-8 days of daytime maxima around 2-4c
and night time severe frosts. Snow showers would curtain
northern and Eastern coasts and other features would
bring more widspread snow.
What winter's about really.
But as we know we always dream of these scenarios but they
seem never to prevail. But indications are ripe that just
perhaps our luck will change as we move into this week.
With such agreement why shouldnt we believe?
But we've been here so many times and just cant
go through the agony again. I for one believe this
one because i think by the law of averages this
one surely must come off.
If it did it would be spectacular with days and days of
waking upto lying snow and viewing my dreams outside my
window.
In 2-3 days we should know for sure, so fingers crossed
and lets hope winter deals us a hand 0 -
Weathercheck wrote:Its February and we thought winter was beginning to say
farewell but there is growing support for the coldest outbreak
of the winter later this week. It all pivots about High Pressure
Building to our north as we move through the week. If
as the GFS ENS's show with 9/10 agreeing :eek: We
would be entering the most prolonged and coldest
period for a few years. Northerly winds would veer
northeasterly and then an Easterly Blast would ensue.
This would bring 5-8 days of daytime maxima around 2-4c
and night time severe frosts. Snow showers would curtain
northern and Eastern coasts and other features would
bring more widspread snow.
What winter's about really.
But as we know we always dream of these scenarios but they
seem never to prevail. But indications are ripe that just
perhaps our luck will change as we move into this week.
With such agreement why shouldnt we believe?
But we've been here so many times and just cant
go through the agony again. I for one believe this
one because i think by the law of averages this
one surely must come off.
If it did it would be spectacular with days and days of
waking upto lying snow and viewing my dreams outside my
window.
In 2-3 days we should know for sure, so fingers crossed
and lets hope winter deals us a hand
I think at this stage i have lost all hope. There have been several occassions now where GSF shows something wonderfull only a few days away that just never seems to happen. Are the other models in agreement with this or even anywhere close?0 -
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I predict a freeze in the portmarnock area around a certain house where a wall of ice builds up around it boxing a certain poster in
Seriously though,these models/ensembles for further than a few days ahead have been wrong all winter mainly because they cant cope with the current scenario, weather is not too predictable beyond a few days usually plus they are short on what an atlantic maratime climate does to the cold...
Basically there is a lot more weather energy in the North Atlantic than there is over the land mass of Europe or Siberia.
Hint: Think fly spray and flies where the spray is the maratime influence.
The biggest strongest flies come from the East but the Atlantic Spray can is very big
You need an unusual/rare set of circumstances to twart our fly spray.
And theres more energy out in that atlantic than ever in the last ten years as its just a tad warmer making our fly spray even stronger against those Easterly flies...
If you catch my North atlantic drift (har har...pun pun...) 0 -
Its all to do with the Jetstream Earthman its crucial.
What must happen for an Easterly to materlise is
High Pressure over Greenland which is very fickle,
then the Icelandic low must not deepen to much so it
is forced south. Its not as plain as the Atlantic has
all the power. The Atlantic does not always win
and at the moment it would seem it **may**
loose 0 -
The power and position of the jet stream is determined by the energy of the Atmosphere over the Atlantic.Weathercheck wrote:Its all to do with the Jetstream Earthman its crucial.
Therefore the jet stream as such is only a tool and what the tool does is what matters and as I say theres currently a lot more potential activity/energy out in the Atlantic(at least over the last ten years) to over power any threat of an influence from the East.
Circumstances do arise that change that temporarally but more often than not lately those circumstances have come together in march or April when their effect is limited.
Of course during the summer they happen too and bring warmer weather, occasionally interupted by thundery lows from spain Biscay or Brittany.The Atlantic does not always win
and at the moment it would seem it **may**
loose
Impossible to say at a range beyond five days.It would be no different to all the other times you were saying it was definitely going to lose and didnt.
It's a case of keep watching really but dont get too excited untill about 48 hrs out and you have the UKMO and the Irish met agree'ing with you 0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:48 Hours Out!!
Thats absurd, GFS
can be trusted really well with
synoptics bar 50miles or so
to around T+96hr
Then its very good to T+120
And then tends to pick big trends from T+144hr
Really what happened today then?
And last week end?
And...
Need I go on...?0 -
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Weathercheck wrote:I happened
GFS might not be good at picking
up exact detail but its a fantastic
model and the best MRF we've got
i think
Maybe, but it has not been good at picking out trends this winter Matt, no matter what you say.
All winter long it has shown a trend toward bitter cold beyond t+144 and yet not once has it happened. The trend has been consistently wrong. Quite often it could not have been more wrong if it tried.
Look at the last 48 hours, the same is happening yet again! it's showed bitter cold at t+144 and beyond and now we have reached that 5 day away period where its gone wrong everytime, the same is happening again. It first of all pushed it back a day or so in the 12z output, then demolished it in the 18z! this is exactly what happened two weeks ago! the continuation will be for it to revitalise things in future runs, quite possibly as early as tomorrow mornings outputs, then back to some more poor ones later in the day, before it gradually reduces it to a brief northerly forecast by midweek, before killing that by Thursday leaving us with a cool weekend and nothing more.
Ok, ive been over specific there (just like the gfs) but you get my drift I hope? I may be proved wrong. I hope so, but if I prove to be right Matt, I will refer you back to this post 0 -
oh you misinterpreted the models?Weathercheck wrote:I happened
Learn from your experience then
Theres an old saying when it comes to experience and its very true " The older dog for the hard road and the pup for the path "0 -
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