Current Weather indications

You wouldnt think it now but theres a good chance
that thee may be some snow on Saturday evening
and into Sunday in many areas in Ireland, obviously
northern areas most at risk. It comes about as an intense
cold front brings a dramatic drop in temperatue late Saturday
which is likely to spark of some TS's and torrential rain with
temperatures set to plummet 6-8c in a few hours!

Later on Saturday is when the snow risk arrives

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?lat=53&lon=-6&locationID=297

A change will occur mid-late January and a change to a
colder weather pattern will occur

Although as of now nothing severe

Hi The upcoming week will see Ireland hammered by another 2 beasty low pressure systems :eek:

NO.1 Sunday 22z Monday 06z
A developmental jet stream is going wild across the atlantic and this week is going to stay wild! Later tomorrow a rapidly developing feature will ride up the western coast, the center staying about 100miles west of the west coast. Gale 9 or storm force 10 winds are forecast for coastal areas with land gales also.
Mean Windspeed between the times stated above will range from 45Knots or 55mph on the west coast, 37knots or 45mph ont he east and south coasts and even 30Knots or 38mph inland! Looking at the 925hpa winds only a few hundred meters above the ground which gives you a good guess a wind gusts, suggest that wind gust across the whole country could reach 72Knots or 84mph. I suggest that Eastern and Southern coastal counties are at risk of 60-75mph gusts with the west and northwest at risk of gusts of 70-85mph.
The Low pressure will rattle away to the north and plummel into Shetland with Hurricane force winds :eek:

NO.2 Tuesday 12z - Wednesday 12z
At the moment the exact track of this storm is somewhat uncertain although it posses a severe risk to northern areas. Another rapidly developing system will approach the west coast, almost a carbon copy of its predecestor but it will track right up the coast. This Low looks like deepening earlier and increasing windspeeds on its southern flank. At the moment im particularly worried for northwestern areas, where the risk of 62mph sustained winds poss
a alarming threat. At the moment i'll be conservative and update you further later. Im expecting the Low Pressure to deepen over Ulster and wrap round some severe winds. Again Southern and Eastern Ireland will see gust past 70mph with the possibility of higher gusts if the track adjusts slightly. Meanwhile the western coast and espeially the north and northwester coast are at risk of gusts passing 80mph and possibly a good deal higher.

Overall the most active period of weather for a number of years, not only is the wind the only worry, over 100mm of rain may fall over the coming week in
a number of areas and this ontop of the already sodden ground will lead to flooding.

Keep the hatches battened down folks and i'll update you with any changes

I am growing in concern now that Tuesday Evening
could see a really really bad LP. The latest run deepens the Low
immensely but luckily for the East coast its just of the west
coast but for anyone in the north or west please check
your forecasts before you leave, its just too close for comfort
a chart like this makes you Shudder...



Remember the positioning of that Low will change......

Dear oh Dear this time it could well be serious and this
is just after another storm 24 hours before could cause
widspread damage not to mention the severe storm
last night.............

Rather stark develoment of a feature to approach here tomorrow
I've done an analysis

Thought i'd open a new one for the fresh storms ready to brew in the atlantic over the coming week a quick run-down on the main events -:

Sunday Warning of Severe Gales - Gusts to 75mph
A rapidly developing feature 500miles south-south-west of
Ireland is currently showing up very well on satellite
imagery, infact the extent of development is quite stark
so early in the systems development.

Latest Satellite Imagery


The track of the LP will bring it just to the northwest of Scotland
at midnight on Sunday:


Details on the feature :-
The systems associated warm front will move into the southwest
approaches at midday Sunday and spread swiftly northeastwards
giving upto 20-25mm of rainfall in places. The associated Cold front
will soon arrive into Ireland by 21z with a reasonable amount of
action on front with squalls and TS's possible. Wind Speed will begin
to pick up by 15z and will slowly rise througout the evening. Winds
will peak at around Midnight in the far west and especially over
Ireland. Mean Speeds of 40Knots along western coasts with gusts as
high as 65-70Kn possible. Up the Irish Sea Mean Winds will be 35Knots
with gusts to 65Knots possible. Over Land mean windspeeds will be
highest over Ireland and Wales at around 25-30knots with gusts to
60Knots. Western Scotland will then be affected by the most severe
gales just after midnight with gusts as high as 75knots possible
although 70knots is more likely. The cold front will swing
through England introducing the higher winds around midnight also.

I am keen to point out with latest satellite imagery things may exceed
what i anticipate above.

Onto Tuesday where intense developments are likely. Worst
affected areas will be Western Wales and England, Scotland
and Ireland. Areas at risk of really severe wind gusts are
Western and Northern Ireland, Western and Northern Scotland.
A rapidly developing low pressure is expect to run up the
West coast of Ireland with severe Force 11 (poss. force 12 winds)
on its southern flank. The Low looks like it will thankfully stay
off shore hopefully reducing the liklihood of damage. A quick
summary reveals that During Tuesday afternoon Western Ireland
could see sustained 50Knot winds with gusts as high as 80knots
not ruled out. I'll update you further on this later or in
the morning as UK Met does not develop as an intense
feature as the Meso and GFS

Batten those hatches especially those in the west

Ye From the 20th of January things should start turning colder
although the length and intensity to any cold spell is unknown
I have updates a couple a times a week on my webpage

Well I'll Highlight something we should pay attention to, on Monday
night a cold shot from the north could deliver some hefty amounts
of snow to the North as cold air digs in behind the cold front and a
massive rash of showers approach. This will be shortlived even if
you do get snow though and it will be mild again before Tuesday ends.

What we are looking further ahead it the firm chance of a 3 day northerly
blast beginning on January 21st. There will be nothing special about the blast and it will probably be a dry affair for the east. But what it does give us is the chance for 3 days Hard Frost and 72hrs where snow is possible and so far this
winter we have not had that chance so i say before we moan about
there not being massive LP systems moving south on the Northerly
flow lets than ourselves for getting a decent northerly blast.

Western and Northern areas will fair similar to the Christmas Cold Snap
with the amount of precipitation probably less.

Just to clear up something:Tuesday's cold is only going to be very
short lived lasting from Monday 9pm to around Tuesday 1800

The longer but drier cold spell is likely this Weekend and is likely
to last fro 60-84hrs

As we move into Monday Evening things are looking very interesting for
the north and west as very cold air digs into much of Britain but what
is very exciting is the fact that GFS brings alot of Precipitation with the
cold. The precipitation is present in large amounts over Ireland even in
the East and over Western Britain for 18 hours With the chance of
Widspread snow. 850hpa Temperatures drop below -5c on the British
West Coast by 1800 with 528dam line just in front with thickness levels
falling very low in western Ireland as low as 516dam for a time.
It could get very interesting with the possibility of a prolonged
feed of Heavy snow showers over Ireland, West South Uk and
western Scotland
Couple that with Gales with gusts reaching 70mph in places and boom, its fun :P

850hpa Temperatures
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

Thickness Levels
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

Precipitation
18z Monday
00zTuesday
06z Tuesday
12z Tuesday

Sorry bout earlier havent been on here since the server
went bust, i thought the Model Mayhem thread was
different to discussing a upcoming physical weather event
anways.. moving swiftly on....

It looks like much colder weather will arrive later today and take
over for the next 3 days, it will be mostly dry but there is a chance
of some light snow over the midlands and east tomorrow as
temperatures continue to fall..

England is set for a prolonged period of cold as very cold air
on the continent slips in, the cold air is only likely reach
more eastern areas of Ireland but with High Pressure in
control snowfall will be very unlikely. Very hard frosts are
likely on Saturday through Tuesday with cold days and
temperatures not above 5c on those days, it will be cloudy
along the east coast with temperatures struggling under
the thick coat of cloud further inland it will be much brighter
and pleseant. Western areas are likely to be less cold with
milder air arriving by Monday..


As we move into next week two things are possible, the High pressure
will slip south allowing a more zonal flow or High pressure will push
in from Siberia to deliver a longer Easterly Blast

This day can be summed up as follows:
I had Granville and Routledge on the bench
for my Fantasy Football team So
close but so far