Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

Foggy Jew · 07-02-2020 8:55am

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Gaoth Laidir · 07-02-2020 8:59am

00Z ECM has strongest winds of all actually Monday night and along the north coast. Malin Head may come out of this with the highest gusts. Sunday, though, still a windy day for the whole country. Tomorrow too, but not as prolonged.

I'm usually not one to see much in a westerly flow but this one, given its strength across the whole 2000 km from Greenland, should deliver mostly snow showers for many later Monday and Tuesday.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 9:14am

Foggy Jew wrote: »

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Having read this I now really have to emerge from my warm nest to go out and see !

MY WORD ! Bad out there and totally monochrome! Bitter wild wind... shivers... No walk this morning; got as far as the gate... did not think it would be as bad as this today but clearly the ferry knew!

coillsaille · 07-02-2020 9:17am

@Sea Slacker
Well one thing I spotted in that run down that I say will definitely be off is the hookers assembling in the bay.

Snow Garden · 07-02-2020 10:01am

Nice morning in Galway. It's been a lovely week actually.
I guess we better make the most of this morning because I think many of us will be housebound for the next few days.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 10:11am

Just been out bringing in turf and coal, harvesting kale and covering the gas tank. It is dark-clouded and wild out there. But at the back . north facing where the turf is, all is calm and not a ripple on the ocean. Southerly .. worse than I expected so early and will not be out there again... snugged in.

Rebelbrowser · 07-02-2020 10:15am

coillsaille wrote: »

@Sea Slacker
Well one thing I spotted in that run down that I say will definitely be off is the hookers assembling in the bay.

It would be a miserable night to be hanging around in a short skirt and fishnet tights alright.

Rebelbrowser · 07-02-2020 10:16am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

00Z ECM has strongest winds of all actually Monday night and along the north coast. Malin Head may come out of this with the highest gusts. Sunday, though, still a windy day for the whole country. Tomorrow too, but not as prolonged.

I'm usually not one to see much in a westerly flow but this one, given its strength across the whole 2000 km from Greenland, should deliver mostly snow showers for many later Monday and Tuesday.

That GL, always ramping snow events:D

munsterlegend · 07-02-2020 10:17am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

It would be a miserable night to be hanging around in a short skirt and fishnet tights alright.

Thought it was rugby players myself.

nthclare · 07-02-2020 10:28am

Foggy Jew wrote: »

I absolutely love these threads. Most of the technical stuff goes way over my head, but I still subscribe to the 'Red sky at night.....' theory. The sky this morning is redder than I have ever seen it. Batten down the hatches.

Darkest morning in Clare all winter, real dark low clouds

ZX7R · 07-02-2020 10:34am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That GL, always ramping snow events:D

I thought his account was hacked by the frog when I first read it ha

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 10:36am

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It`s the first option, Keeer rah to use your spelling. Sleep soundly now.

I say KEE AR A.. the Italian way

antodeco · 07-02-2020 10:48am

Ciara is pronounced like She-Ra, but with a K sound instead (Kee Ra)

Anyway, noticed the sky this morning very dark. Was sure it was going to open up, but nothing as of yet. Its been a lovely clear and calm week overall, but biting cold. Looking forward to a bit of cutting weather. A good cold front and frost, will kill off any of the bugs and bacteria lying about the place!

KingdomRushed · 07-02-2020 10:55am

The slight potential for heavier more organised snow on Monday is slightly further south on GFS taking it into Munster rather than Leinster

nacho libre · 07-02-2020 11:26am

Well this is bittersweet. I just won't
be able to enjoy the snow next Monday as i would in the past. If the upper air temperatures don't get downgraded, given the wind speed, areas that normally don't do well from a north westerly airflow, will do so. I guess this is the one positive from the very strong pv this year.

gerrybhoy · 07-02-2020 11:50am

So we all getting a bit of snow then??

kerryjack · 07-02-2020 11:59am

Do ye think the gaa matches will go ahead this weekend planning heading to omagh this Saturday for kerry v Tyrone. match sunday at 2 PM thanks

Goldfinch8 · 07-02-2020 12:51pm

G.L mentioning snow showers has brightened up my Friday. Childhood excitement reawakening within me.

Cantona's Collars · 07-02-2020 12:55pm

kerryjack wrote: »

Do ye think the gaa matches will go ahead this weekend planning heading to omagh this Saturday for kerry v Tyrone. match sunday at 2 PM thanks

Best to keep an eye on updates and use common sense. If you think the weather is too bad then stay at home. It's a long spin from Kerry to Omagh.

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2020 12:56pm

ARPEGE 06Z an upgrade in wind speeds for Sunday, more in line now with the ECM, strongest winds coming in early from around 05.00 to early afternoon at this stage. Very heavy rain.

TTLF · 07-02-2020 1:12pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ARPEGE 06Z an upgrade in wind speeds for Sunday, more in line now with the ECM, strongest winds coming in early from around 05.00 to early afternoon at this stage. Very heavy rain.

Any photos or a link? Thanks

GerardKeating · 07-02-2020 1:40pm

Clareman wrote: »

Thanks for worrying about us MT

There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held

Also Prospect Hill in Galway City, now called something else.

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2020 1:46pm

ECM 06Z a bit up again, early winds widespread gusting 100 to 120Km/h, up to 130km/h on coasts for a time and looking like the core getting very close to the NW / N coasts in the early afternoon, gusting 130 to 140 km/ h. A lot of fine tuning over the next 36 hrs.

Meteorite58 · 07-02-2020 1:50pm

TTLF see link below.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?map=330

Villain · 07-02-2020 1:57pm

ARPEGE max gusts chart:

SleetAndSnow · 07-02-2020 2:02pm

I'd say we will get a few upgrades later on today/tomorrow morning going by the charts, latest ARPEGE has some orange gusts alright.

Villain · 07-02-2020 2:08pm

Easier to post charts here than uploading images etc:
https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1225767818907586560?s=20

Stevieluvsye · 07-02-2020 2:09pm

That's looking in excess of 120kmh?

Gonzo · 07-02-2020 2:10pm

based on this mornings run I think next week's snow risk looks a bit lower. Yesterday was showing very cold most of the way from Monday morning to late Thursday with a brief mild interlude on Wednesday. This mornings run still has it cold on Monday and Tuesday, then mild for Wednesday and cooler on Thursday but not cold enough for snow, so it looks like we are back to a 2 day window for snow.

Most of the snow risk charts are keeping it over the west and north with not much progress into Leinster, except for a patch on the Wicklow Mountains.

81-780UK.GIF?07-6

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday look similar, most places staying around 3 to 6C on Monday which would result in any lying snow thawing fairly quickly on low ground. Tuesday is a bit colder with 3 to 4C generally.

78-580UK.GIF?07-6

Precipitation looks mostly showery in nature with showers becoming lighter and more scattered as they head into Leinster.

Monday GFS snow risk shows most heavy showers across the west and north, Looks a bit dryer towards the east and south.

108-574UK.GIF?07-6

Tuesday more of the same, some eastern areas could stay dry.
102-574UK.GIF?07-6

Those snow risk charts can be misleading as they tend to overcook the amount of snow when in reality most of it is showers rather than a constant band of snow. We are still 3 days away from this happening so more upgrades or downgrades to come in terms of snow risk and temperatures.

Winds on Sunday for Storm Ciara still look fairly strong with gusts between 70 and 100km/h across the country, gusts may be higher across the west and south.

51-289UK.GIF?07-6

Gonzo · 07-02-2020 2:21pm

The GFS wind chart which I linked in above post doesn't look as windy as some of the other models.

The Arpege is going for higher wind speeds nationwide, between 85 and 130km/h, perhaps even higher gusts around western coasts.

arpegeuk-11-50-0.png?07-12

Icon also looks just as windy with gusts up to 120km/h getting across the country with gusts perhaps exceeding 130km/h in places.

mickger844posts · 07-02-2020 2:55pm

It is worth noting that the ECM was over estimating winds speeds for Storm Brendan and Lorenzo. GFS was more in line with reality. It will be interesting to see which model wins out on this occasion.

I'm fully expecting Met Eireann to update warnings this afternoon to a possible Coastal County Orange or even National Orange.

Cw85 · 07-02-2020 3:53pm

Given the possible severity and longevity of this storm I'm surprised Met Eireann haven't updated the warnings yet to give people more notice. A lot of people travel in Sundays whether it be students back to college or people heading back to Dublin for work. I'm aware there's a status yellow warning in place but obviously this will increase given what the charts are showing. Also surprised with the quietness on this thread for such an event, is there a possible lack of awareness given it's only a status yellow at the moment maybe?

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 3:56pm

Cw85 wrote: »

Given the possible severity and longevity of this storm I'm surprised Met Eireann haven't updated the warnings yet to give people more notice. A lot of people travel in Sundays whether it be students back to college or people heading back to Dublin for work. I'm aware there's a status yellow warning in place but obviously this will increase given what the charts are showing. Also surprised with the quietness on this thread for such an event, is there a possible lack of awareness given it's only a status yellow at the moment maybe?

I think so. While there are west coast marine gales and gales coming in, the rest of the country is calm; nothing happening.

When the winds really hit it will be a different story; as with Brendan.

Oh and the warning is dated Saturday not today. Apart from marine warnings

Cw85 · 07-02-2020 4:09pm

Graces7 wrote: »

[/B]

I think so. While there are west coast marine gales and gales coming in, the rest of the country is calm; nothing happening.

When the winds really hit it will be a different story; as with Brendan.

Oh and the warning is dated Saturday not today. Apart from marine warnings

Yes maybe you're right, hopefully if warnings are to be increased (which looks like it) they will be updated tomorrow. Is 24 hours out a reasonable time to suggest that wind speed currently being shown won't change much? I see the storm moving slightly more North-East but I'm no expert as to whether it can still change much is the next 24 hours

Hooter23 · 07-02-2020 4:11pm

Those charts look bad enough the severe winds seem to go very far inland...and it could be even upgraded more by the looks of it...

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 4:14pm

Cw85 wrote: »

Yes maybe you're right, hopefully if warnings are to be increased (which looks like it) they will be updated tomorrow. Is 24 hours out a reasonable time to suggest that wind speed currently being shown won't change much? I see the storm moving slightly more North-East but I'm no expert as to whether it can still change much is the next 24 hours

I think folk have seen SATURDAY in the warnings and rightly so ! My bad too as I am offshore and we have a near gale out here. I knew it would not hit elsewhere until tomorrow and pm at that. But coping with it here now distracted me.

Anything technical needs a weather tech expert! I am just a very connected observer with no tech skills! They will be posting frequently now of course so I hope your queries are answered.

pc7 · 07-02-2020 4:16pm

Is it looking likely they'll have to cancel the Galway festival?

harr · 07-02-2020 4:19pm

It’s not only this thread that is quite, the media In general have been quiet. Plenty of events happening Sunday that are currently going ahead and probably as mentioned the yellow warnings have given people the false sense of security.
I know the voting tomorrow has the media preoccupied but maybe more should be done to let people know they might have plans or travel disrupted over the weekend.

SusanC10 · 07-02-2020 4:21pm

I need to drive from North Leinster to South West Munster tomorrow and back Sunday. Not a confident driver in bad weather although I do know the route very well. So, bit nervous !

Hooter23 · 07-02-2020 4:23pm

Having look at the GFS chart it does not look too bad

but the strong winds will be very prolonged in some areas....

Oneiric 3 · 07-02-2020 4:26pm

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation beginning to stir up as the jet stream exits the Canadian Maritimes:

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 4:27pm

SusanC10 wrote: »

I need to drive from North Leinster to South West Munster tomorrow and back Sunday. Not a confident driver in bad weather although I do know the route very well. So, bit nervous !

Take it steady and you will be fine. Breathe! Take breaks when you can.

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 4:29pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation beginning to stir up as the jet stream exits the Canadian Maritimes:

[ My family in Newfoundland will be getting it soon.. off to light a candle..

DOCARCH · 07-02-2020 4:34pm

Status: Orange
Wind warning for Donegal and Mayo
Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal and Mayo
In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.

Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 08/02/2020

Issued: 15:00 Friday 07/02/2020

Status: Orange
Wind warning for Galway
Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway
In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.

Valid: 13:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 18:00 Saturday 08/02/2020

Issued: 14:00 Friday 07/02/2020

Status: Yellow
Wind warning for Ireland
Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland
Saturday, 8th Feb: Southerly winds will strengthen during Saturday reaching mean speeds of 50-65km/h with gusts reaching 90-110km/h.

Sunday, 9th Feb: Storm Ciara (named by the UK Met Office) will produce very strong winds over Ireland on Sunday with a risk of damaging gusts.

Over the weekend the combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in an elevated risk of coastal flooding especially along southern, western and northwestern coasts.

Valid: 09:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 23:59 Sunday 09/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

Gonzo · 07-02-2020 4:34pm

Met Eireann have updated their warnings:

Orange Level Wind Warning - Mayo, Galway, Donegal.
Yellow Level Wind Warning - Everywhere else.

https://www.met.ie/warnings

diceyd · 07-02-2020 5:03pm

Cw85 wrote: »

Given the possible severity and longevity of this storm I'm surprised Met Eireann haven't updated the warnings yet to give people more notice. A lot of people travel in Sundays whether it be students back to college or people heading back to Dublin for work. I'm aware there's a status yellow warning in place but obviously this will increase given what the charts are showing. Also surprised with the quietness on this thread for such an event, is there a possible lack of awareness given it's only a status yellow at the moment maybe?

Probably a lot are in work, school, college, I'd say itll be a lot more active in here later on this evening

WM18 · 07-02-2020 5:14pm

Galway 2020 opening in the swamp at 5/6 ish..... why is it called the swamp i wonder??

Graces7 · 07-02-2020 5:15pm

Wild out here now

snowgal · 07-02-2020 5:18pm

yes particularly quite here for what COULD happen over the next week...But, I do think with the elections, rugby etc going on its not been plastered in the media for once. Although ppl should take good notice, Im actually glad there's no sensationalist media crap on the front pages yet! Then the inevitable moans and groans cos we didnt get 3 feet of snow or the island didnt blow away!!

endainoz · 07-02-2020 5:28pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Take it steady and you will be fine. Breathe! Take breaks when you can.

Fun tip: if you want a real fun journey, do it in a van!

Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow TECHNICAL DISCUSSION