Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

Graces7

snowgal wrote: »

yes particularly quite here for what COULD happen over the next week...But, I do think with the elections, rugby etc going on its not been plastered in the media for once. Although ppl should take good notice, Im actually glad there's no sensationalist media crap on the front pages yet! Then the inevitable moans and groans cos we didnt get 3 feet of snow or the island didnt blow away!!

shudders! If that kicks off I am outta here. I rather like it quiet and focussed like now. lol...

Gonzo

on the latest RTE Forecast, Met Eireann said that warnings will possibly be updated again tomorrow.

RuthieRose

Gonzo wrote: »

on the latest RTE Forecast, Met Eireann said that warnings will possibly be updated again tomorrow.

When do the next charts run again?

SleetAndSnow

Gonzo wrote: »

on the latest RTE Forecast, Met Eireann said that warnings will possibly be updated again tomorrow.

I presume they will, I was surprised when j didn't see Kerry and cork included in them aswell as most charts show them as Orange aswell. Especially Kerry

highdef

RuthieRose wrote: »

When do the next charts run again?

You didn't specify which charts so here's a schedule run of most of the main ones:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/

_Kaiser_

harr wrote: »

It’s not only this thread that is quite, the media In general have been quiet. Plenty of events happening Sunday that are currently going ahead and probably as mentioned the yellow warnings have given people the false sense of security.
I know the voting tomorrow has the media preoccupied but maybe more should be done to let people know they might have plans or travel disrupted over the weekend.

I think "warning fatigue" is setting in to be honest.

Every few weeks at this stage there's a yellow/orange alert and for most of the country it's largely a non-event.

The Boy who Cried Wolf comes to mind.

Dank Janniels

There'l be afew out+about Sunday for the counting of votes, probly go on all week!

SAXA

_Kaiser_ wrote:

Every few weeks at this stage there's a yellow/orange alert and for most of the country it's largely a non-event.

_Kaiser_ wrote:

The Boy who Cried Wolf comes to mind.

With any warning system there has to be a graded approach.. Yellow is just the first grade. Yes it will be windy but life goes on as normal unless you work in a specific area... Orange obviously is a higher grade and precautions should be taken.. Red stay inside...

nthclare

The bigger ocean swell will be coming in behind this, so Tuesday could be more dangerous out at sea than Sunday and Monday

Donegal Ken

Going by the latest ECMWF Model this evening it shows up to 80mm of rainfall across parts of Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim and Donegal nearly within 24hours Saturday to Sunday.

I would not be suprised to see a upgrade to a orange rainfall warning there by tonight from Met Éireann.

High risk of localised flooding

Gaoth Laidir

Let's not lose the run of ourseves here. In reality, Ciara will be nothing out of the ordinary for us and nothing more than what we've already received this winter and others (strengthwise). However, it comes after a very quiet week. What will be different will be the duration of winds from tomorrow to Wednesday, plus the two cold days Monday and Tuesday. The Hebrides are where the real wind action will be at Sunday.

Donegal Ken

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Let's not lose the run of ourseves here. In reality, Ciara will be nothing out of the ordinary for us and nothing more than what we've already received this winter and others (strengthwise). However, it comes after a very quiet week. What will be different will be the duration of winds from tomorrow to Wednesday, plus the two cold days Monday and Tuesday. The Hebrides are where the real wind action will be at Sunday.

Main impact from the storm could be the rainfall totals and flooding around northwestern counties.

Donegal Ken

I can also see Met Eireann issuing a nationwide Orange warning for Sunday. Winds for many areas will be within a high yellow to low orange criteria.

Peterx

Donegal Ken wrote: »

I can also see Met Eireann issuing a nationwide Orange warning for Sunday. Winds for many areas will be within a high yellow to low orange criteria.

Approximately when would this warning* be issued?
6pm Saturday?
10am Saturday?

*if they decide to issue an Orange wind warning nationwide for Sunday

Thanks

Donegal Ken

The Photos below displays the forecast winds for Saturday, 8th February using the Harmonie Forecast model.

zell12

giveitholly wrote: »

Who in their right mind thought it was a good idea to put up scaffolding and tents for a public event in February on the west coast of Galway?

In fairness, it's been a stunningly calm, dry, bright week, to hold same.. until tonight. T'would be a stunning fires display if it was held last night.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112424062&postcount=154

Oneiric 3

Tomorrow's frontal passage does look interesting alright. Slow moving convergence zone moving NW to SE. Could dump a lot of rain in a short space of time in places.

Oscar Bravo

giveitholly wrote: »

Who in their right mind thought it was a good idea to put up scaffolding and tents for a public event in February on the west coast of Galway?

Galway 2020 twitter
We aware of the current weather advisories. As public safety is our primary concern, we are keeping the situation under review. Our intention is that the Opening Ceremony will still go ahead, but may be subject to alteration. We will update further on Saturday morning.

nuac

Asitis2019 wrote: »

Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

Personally I will heed those warnings and am thankful for them. Will help to pick the safest times to vote tomorrow/.


Fair play to all who put this info together. We live on the Atlantic coast. Can never be casual about the weather.

Donegal Ken

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Tomorrow's frontal passage does look interesting alright. Slow moving convergence zone moving NW to SE. Could dump a lot of rain in a short space of time in places.

Could be a possible squall line also keep a eye out for that.

Graces7

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I think "warning fatigue" is setting in to be honest.

Every few weeks at this stage there's a yellow/orange alert and for most of the country it's largely a non-event.

The Boy who Cried Wolf comes to mind.

Never one false call given. Mostly misread as to where they apply to is all.

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Let's not lose the run of ourseves here. In reality, Ciara will be nothing out of the ordinary for us and nothing more than what we've already received this winter and others (strengthwise). However, it comes after a very quiet week. What will be different will be the duration of winds from tomorrow to Wednesday, plus the two cold days Monday and Tuesday. The Hebrides are where the real wind action will be at Sunday.

Completely agree, this is looking like a typical winter storm but with a longer duration than normal. One of the reasons why it is getting a lot of attention here on Boards is that initially it was looking like being an extremely severe storm.....a storm that would have been the strongest in many years, had it materialised as such. However, the trajectory and intensity forecast has changed a lot over the past week or thereabouts and it is now looking like a long lived winter storm. Yes, there may be a few surprises and there is likely to be some flooding and wind damage in places but nothing that is not expected to occur at least a few times over any goven winter season.

Graces7

nuac wrote: »

Personally I will heed those warnings and am thankful for them. Will help to pick the safest times to vote tomorrow/.


Fair play to all who put this info together. We live on the Atlantic coast. Can never be casual about the weather.

Amen to that. Coastal and island life are governed by the weather. Lives and homes at risk

Graces7

It has gone very quiet out here but the marine warning for later tonight is now orange.

m17

Storm ciara this morning off the us east coast

TTLF

Any update on the Monday -> Wednesday Snow situation?

Obviously want the E coast to get something for once hehe

squarecircles

Gonzo

just taking a look at the latest charts, this time around the ECM, rather than the GFS, just to see what's possible on Sunday morning across the country.

The ECM brings in strong winds and gusts up to 110km/h across large parts of the country. This begins around 6am Sunday with gusts averaging 130km/h with a few possibly getting close to 160km/h off the coasts of Galway and Mayo.

6am Sunday:





By 9am Sunday the storm will be raging for about 3 hours and winds still very strong across the country.




At the same time, winds remain very strong across all the country with the highest gusts possible in Kerry, the ECM is shooting for a 165km/h gust somewhere in the Kerry mountains.



By midday Sunday, not alot has changed, still very windy across the country, we would be at the 6 hour mark by this stage.


Kerry still with gusts exceeding 130km/h


For some reason none of the images are showing up!

pad199207

ESB Crews will have their work cut out for them

Gonzo

Sunday 3pm see's winds dropping slightly across much of the country, but if anything gaining strength across the south and far north.



Poor Kerry still getting hit hard:


6pm Sunday, the storm moves into the Uk, Ireland is still fairly windy with gusts up to 90km/h in many places, thats 12 hours of very gusty and windy conditions. Kerry still taking the brunt of it.



The ECM wants to keep gusts of over 100km/h in Kerry till 6am Monday morning, a full 24 hour window of gusts.

The far western coastal areas still look very gusty all through Monday with winds over 100km/h for most of the day.

YanSno

Compared to last week westerly this is somewhat different, showers will penetrate far inland, less modifications even the east coast might have some wintry type precipitation. It will be fast moving leaving a dusting on high grounds during Monday and Tuesday even Wednesday. There's an interesting feature with a more prolonged band of sleet and snow moving in from the west on Monday night, one to watch.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

ESB Crews will have their work cut out for them

they certainly will. Storm Ciara could last more than 24 hours in parts of the west, Kerry in particular and winds of over 100km/h in built up areas. The GFS is looking far more conservative compared to the ECM, Icon and Arpege, will be interesting to see who is right. We should get a much better idea by tomorrow evening what we are in store for.

Doctors room ghost

Where could I buy a cheap rain gauge

lcasey90

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Where could I buy a cheap rain gauge

You can make one cheap using a cylinder shape and a ruler lots of videos on howto online

Graces7

Gonzo wrote: »

Sunday 3pm see's winds dropping slightly across much of the country, but if anything gaining strength across the south and far north.



Poor Kerry still getting hit hard:


6pm Sunday, the storm moves into the Uk, Ireland is still fairly windy with gusts up to 90km/h in many places, thats 12 hours of very gusty and windy conditions. Kerry still taking the brunt of it.



The ECM wants to keep gusts of over 100km/h in Kerry till 6am Monday morning, a full 24 hour window of gusts.

The far western coastal areas still look very gusty all through Monday with winds over 100km/h for most of the day.

Ouch

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECM mean winds at 100 metres amsl. That core of gold hurricane-force winds should get into the Belmullet before 6 am Sunday morning, then another larger core off the Donegal coast in the afternoon. Reduce these winds by about 30% to get the 10-metre mean, but add about 8% to get the likely gusts. That gives around 45-knot mean winds with max gusts up to around 65-68 knots in that area.

Pangea

Gonzo wrote: »

Sunday 3p

Poor Kerry still getting hit hard:
.

You would think Kerry would be in an orange warning then?

hawkwing

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Tomorrow's frontal passage does look interesting alright. Slow moving convergence zone moving NW to SE. Could dump a lot of rain in a short space of time in places.

Still up in the air as to exactly what sort of a dumping will come from Ciara's back passage also

km79

hawkwing wrote: »

Still up in the air as to exactly what sort of a dumping will come from Ciara's back passage also

Ooohhhh matron

Spanish Eyes

Is there any way these weather warning threads could have the coloured scary banner back on the OP like in the old days!

It would make many more sit up and take notice I think.

Spanish Eyes

Oops I see a banner! Must go to spec savers

eastmayo

Pangea wrote: »

You would think Kerry would be in an orange warning then?

Orange warnings are for 2morrow...Met eireann will update for Sunday tomorrow would expect Kerry to be in the orange by then.

Doctors room ghost

lcasey90 wrote: »

You can make one cheap using a cylinder shape and a ruler lots of videos on howto online

Cheers I’ll check it out

littlema

We can compare this Friday evenings wind with Sunday if it materialises.

Kermit.de.frog

There is Monday's prolonged snowfall for the southern half of the country. Where that line across the country precisely is between the haves and have-nots remains to be nailed down.



On this chart, Munster, most of Connaught and most of Leinster having a fun day.

5 - 10 cms should be expected but more on high ground.

SleetAndSnow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is Monday's prolonged snowfall for the southern half of the country. Where that line across the country precisely is between the haves and have-nots remains to be nailed down.



On this chart, Munster, most of Connaught and most of Leinster having a fun day.

5 - 10 cms should be expected but more on high ground.

Here's to hoping we get some in cork city, none this year yet! Judging by the charts it seems to be a small circle of cork city with none but the rest with!

JanuarySnowstor

We had snow 2 weeks back in many parts of highground Cork? Anyway I agree with Kermit the charts look quite tasty for the South on Monday afternoon...

Oneiric 3

Probability maps for Sunday morn regarding gust speeds in excess of 48 knots and 64 knots respectively.





High for the former over most of the country, but pretty low, away from hills and exposed coasts, for the latter.

SleetAndSnow

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We had snow 2 weeks back in many parts of highground Cork? Anyway I agree with Kermit the charts look quite tasty for the South on Monday afternoon...

Hence the "city" part! Only had a few brief showers here with very wet snow or else very small parts.

Oneiric 3

hawkwing wrote: »

Still up in the air as to exactly what sort of a dumping will come from Ciara's back passage also