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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

145791021

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,301 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

    On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.

    A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.

    Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

    Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,240 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    • Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal and Mayo

      In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.
      Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
      Issued: 15:00 Friday 07/02/2020

    • Status: Orange Wind warning for Galway
      Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway

      In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.
      Valid: 13:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 18:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
      Issued: 14:00 Friday 07/02/2020

    • Status: Orange Wind warning for Ireland
      Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

      On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.

      A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.
      Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020
      Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020
      Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020

    • Status: Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
      Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland

      Saturday, 8th Feb: A spell of heavy rain will spread eastwards across the country on Saturday with 20-40mm expected, highest in the west and northwest.

      Sunday, 9th Feb: Another spell of heavy rain on Sunday will clear to squally wintry showers. Another 20-40mm likely.

      A risk of localised flooding this weekend, especially over the western half of the country.
      Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 15:00 Sunday 09/02/2020
      Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,048 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

    On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.

    A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.

    Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

    Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
    130kph gusts is the criteria for a red warning
    Could some western counties get another upgrade to red if inland counties can reach 130kph?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Mace Head recorded a gust of 80km/h at 10am. Otherwise it's fairly calm in Galway. Early days I know.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,797 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Wind is certainly picked up but not so much rain yet but that’s to come.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Latest ECMWF. Fair chance that it is overdoing it, but still showing potential for some high rainfall totals over the next 18 to 24 hrs. (chart shows forecast totals up to 6am tomorrow)

    SBORBDO.png

    New Moon



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Gusts at 12 noon
    Belmullet = 87 km/h
    Mace Head = 89 km/h
    Valentia = 78 km/h


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    1pm
    Belmullet gusting 54 knots (100km/h) in modreate rain.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Heavy rain in Galway now.

    Mace Head 96 km/h (Gust) at 1pm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,382 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Belmullet the first to 100kph

    Malin will follow at 2 I'd say as squall gets established


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Is this orange an upgrade or as expected? MT mentioned he felt this system might be stronger than anticipated.

    Wasn't expecting Orange for Dublin based on yesterday's charts.
    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Latest ECMWF. Fair chance that it is overdoing it, but still showing potential for some high rainfall totals over the next 18 to 24 hrs. (chart shows forecast totals up to 6am tomorrow)

    HIRLAM going for some large totals also. 48hrs to 7am Monday:

    hirlamuk-25-48-0.png?08-11


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    sdanseo wrote: »


    HIRLAM going for some large totals also. 48hrs to 7am Monday:

    Still going with the idea of a trailing, if narrow convergence zone later on up through parts of Mayo/Sligo etc, but let's see.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Nice morning in Letterkenny, dry and bright.

    Wind picking up but just breezy with moderate gusts so far, radar seems to be overplaying the rain as well, nothing more than a few spits of drizzle so far despite what the radar's looked like for the past hour


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Akrasia wrote: »
    130kph gusts is the criteria for a red warning
    Could some western counties get another upgrade to red if inland counties can reach 130kph?

    already marine red alert which cover islands so yes likely indeed. Very bad out here and there is little hope te power will hold


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭littlema


    Horizontal heavy rain here with gusts that are hard to walk in (but I’m small).
    152m asl. S Sligo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    2pm
    Belmullet gusting 63 knots (117km/h)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭m17


    Tuam co Galway 08/02/20 12.20 temperature 6°C
    SUkH17O.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,327 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Euro 04 looking v promising out to lunchtime Monday....

    20021011_0806.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    AROME a good reliable model in my estimation, not one prone to over doing it. Interesting showing very strong winds for a time tomorrow morning through the midlands and the East. Will we get gusts there of 120 - 130 km/h ? , that would be quite unusual. That is some rain total to fall in Connacht and Ulster and parts of the SW.

    Thunderstorms with huge squalls look a fair possibility.


    anim_naj6.gif


    anim_doj5.gif

    anim_pnr5.gif


    aromehd-52-36-0_quz4.png

    aromehd-25-36-0_fxk9.png

    6866_nen9.png

    6068_xvp8.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Euro 04 looking v promising out to lunchtime Monday....

    20021011_0806.gif

    Yeah looks great. Thought it more Monday evening was our best chance.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 518 ✭✭✭Donegal Ken


    Graces7 wrote: »
    already marine red alert which cover islands so yes likely indeed. Very bad out here and there is little hope te power will hold

    A red warning is not likely there is a low risk of one been issued but i wouldn't say likely.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,257 ✭✭✭endainoz


    Few images of Doolin pier as promised, fairly wild sea out there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gusting almost 84kmh at my Davis station in Arklow in the last few mins
    Southwest


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    Not to bad in Dublin. Still dry and a little breezy but nothing to write home about


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    endainoz wrote: »
    Few images of Doolin pier as promised, fairly wild sea out there.
    Wonder what salthill will look like soon at high tide.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,470 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    snaps wrote: »
    Wonder what salthill will look like soon at high tide.

    Quite bad I'd say, luckily they've cancelled the Galway 2020 opening ceremony at the swamp!

    Audible gusts here in West Clare, haven't ventured out in it yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Dirty winters day in Galway.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    3pm

    Mace Head Gust = 93km/h
    Belmullet = 89km/h
    Newport = 107 km/h
    Valentia = 80 km/h
    Malin Head = 98 km/h

    Belmullet eased off quite a bit from the earlier 117.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    Very windy here in east kerry. Nothing exceptional but its been pouring down for 3 hours or so. Worst conditions windwise tommorow morning I would think here. Impressive rainfall totals I would think.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭littlema


    Hard to see the sheets of rain on window, but the road seldom floods like that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,382 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Squall in sligo now lashing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Ciara hasn't deepened in the 6 hours up to 12Z, still 969 hPa just east of New Foundland.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020812_000.png

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020806_000.png

    By 06Z tomorrow it will have deepened to only 950 hPa, so not rapidly intensifying, though it did start off as a low way down near Florida during the week.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020806_024.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    ASCAT winds measured at 11:50Z today show 40 knots off the west coast. Belmullet was reporting 35 knots at the time, with a 54-knot gust in the following hour.

    The ECM 100-metre winds for the same area at the same time were around 26 m/s (50 knots), which tallies well with the Belmullet and ASCAT figures.

    502221.png

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020800_012.jpg

    The same ECM chart for tomorrow morning shows 100-metre winds around 6 m/s (12 kt) stronger, meaning about 8 knots higher at the surface. Mace Head could touch mean winds near 50 knots, gusts high 60s.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020800_030.jpg


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    At 4pm, Malin Head gusting 106 km/h


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Has been a very wet afternoon in Mayo. Sheets of driving rain here now.
    Pools of water already showing in some fields locally.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,312 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very windy here in Meath, not much rain so far today, a few spits of drizzle every few minutes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The Met Éireann aviation chart for 18Z shows a 80-knot spot wind at 5000 ft at 52.5N 15W, temperature +6 C.
    At 55N 15W (280 km further north) wind is 55 kt, temperature 0 C.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Wind has dropped here in west Mayo. V heavy rain though in the last while.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,127 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Very quiet in South Roscommon. ..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,747 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The weather in north Dublin right now reminds me of every single day I have ever spent in Galway.

    Occasional strong winds touching gale force, spits and spots of rain, still 9.2c at the moment and we are only heading up from there overnight. The more persistent rain about to arrive.


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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    The ME radar is showing an intense area of rain across Northern Ireland just now. It’s unusual to see such an organised and widespread area of heavy rain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,985 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    squonk wrote: »
    The ME radar is showing an intense area of rain across Northern Ireland just now. It’s unusual to see such an organised and widespread area of heavy rain.

    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Discodog wrote: »
    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.

    That's called Bright Banding and is totally normal. It's caused by the reflection off melting snow at a certain level, and the rings show this effect at different scan angles. The radar is working fine.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 10,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Discodog wrote: »
    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.

    Yeah I hope so. I thought the northern Irish reading looked a bit suspect. They’ll be flooded up there if the radar is correct.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,510 ✭✭✭mayo.mick


    Wind has dropped here in west Mayo. V heavy rain though in the last while.

    25mm or so since midday here in east Mayo

    EQRKoPrXkAERIFH?format=png&name=small


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71 ✭✭Laurali


    Icon has upgraded mayo for the main event in the early hours of tomorrow where gfs seems to have down graded.
    Does icon notoriously over estimate?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Ciara hasn't deepened in the 6 hours up to 12Z, still 969 hPa just east of New Foundland.
    By 06Z tomorrow it will have deepened to only 950 hPa, so not rapidly intensifying, though it did start off as a low way down near Florida during the week.

    Since its not deepening as rapidly as forecast maybe the track might change also and the storm may come closer to us


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,654 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Laurali wrote: »
    Icon has upgraded mayo for the main event in the early hours of tomorrow where gfs seems to have down graded.
    Does icon notoriously over estimate?

    Yes gfs had a slight downgrade on winds for tomorrow morning, a mid range orange but nothing more unless this system bombs overnight which looks unlikely


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Lovely hi-res MODIS image of the frigid air bubbling up into cumulus and then showers as it flows southeastwards off the sea ice in Baffin Bay, the source of Monday/Tuesday's cold air. Dewpoints in the area are below -25 C, so how much will the 3000+ km sea track modify this airmass by then? That's the question.

    49505976678_63d9b4fde8_h.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,261 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Since its not deepening as rapidly as forecast maybe the track might change also and the storm may come closer to us

    It is deepening as forecast. It's just not "bombing" (as DublinLive would say). Forecasts have been remarkably accurate all week (up to now anyway).


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