Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

ninebeanrows · 31-10-2013 10:46pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE

There ends up not being too much difference by later Saturday, however the gradient is less steep.

gfs-0-48.png?18

Villain · 31-10-2013 10:48pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

There ends up not being too much difference put development of low would push strongest winds to the far south initially.

Ya very little change, 981 on 18z versus 978 on 12z

maquiladora · 31-10-2013 10:50pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE

Yes, 18Z GFS is now in line with ECM, HIRLAM, UKMO. Keeps the strong winds off the south coast.

maquiladora · 31-10-2013 10:56pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

There ends up not being too much difference by later Saturday, however the gradient is less steep.

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

Villain · 31-10-2013 11:01pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

It will move again by the time it's in +12, I wouldn't get too bogged down on exact location yet.

ninebeanrows · 31-10-2013 11:03pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

Yes i was trying to explain that, the position of the centre of the low is similar but the gradient and internal structure of the low centre pushes the highest wind to the south.

ninebeanrows · 31-10-2013 11:14pm

The 18z NAE does something similar, tends to spread out the isobars and stall the intensification as it moves over Ireland.

However i suspect the exact details of the low will change in the next 24 hours.

This is where NAE places the Low at 18z Saturday

- Would be windy but nothing severe
- Inland gusts south of low 40-50 knots max

maquiladora · 31-10-2013 11:25pm

Yeah NAE is similar. Shifted the low south enough to keep the strongest winds offshore rather than crashing into the southwest on the 12Z.

A rough agreement on a track now between NAE, HIRLAM, GFS, UKMO and ECM. Looks like we going to dodge another one.

leahyl · 31-10-2013 11:56pm

Damn! Was looking forward to a nice stormy Saturday :-(

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 12:21am

leahyl wrote: »

Damn! Was looking forward to a nice stormy Saturday :-(

Well it looks looks like the south coast will be closest to the areas of high winds, so if anywhere still has a chance of stormy conditions it's there.

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 12:29am

I'll reserve judgement until tomorrow's 12z as only small changes in the setup could leave us in a much more precarious position.

gens-18-1-48.png?18

xXxkorixXx · 01-11-2013 1:08am

can anyone tell me what the chances are of the saturday morning rosslare to fishguard ferry being cancelled?

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 6:37am

Most models still keep the core of strong winds over the south of Ireland.

The gradient then tightens again later as the storm clears.

So at the moment it is looking like coastal wind gusts 50-60kt in exposed Southern/Southwestern areas.

And then gusts from 40-55kt as the system pushes into Britain later Saturday.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 10:08am

Further south again on the 06Z NAE.

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 11:24am

I would still say this will cause some interest.

Looks at the moment as if the south coast and southwest will see gusts between 100-120 km/hr peaking around midday Saturday.

Elsewhere it will be breezy with rain clearing eastwards; initially gusty with southerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr in places.

Then the low centre will push northeast and winds will veer westerly/north-westerly. Winds will then peak in the Midlands/East with gusts from 100-110 km/hr.

There is still potential for model guidance to change as the system is only just beginning its development.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 12:21pm

Yes, still need to keep an eye on this. It's hard to bet against the track shown in agreement by the models but at the same time it wouldn't take a huge change in track to bring stronger winds over the south.

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 1:24pm

Storm looking very impressive to our west.

qj9w3du

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 1:29pm

Force 9 for southern and eastern coasts.

Southerly gales will develop on coasts from Roche's Pt to Valentia to Loop Head later tonight. On Saturday morning southwest to west, gale force to strong gale force winds will extend to coasts from Fair Head to Roche's Pt to Loop Head and the Irish Sea

Issued at 12:00 on 1-Nov-2013

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 1:42pm

There are very few ships or buoys in the vicinity of the low.

The latest synopsis has the low at 996hPa, this is mostly computer generated as no obs to go by.

On satellite representation this low is near 985hPa IMO.

Oscar Bravo · 01-11-2013 1:48pm

Met Eireann time on Rte Radio1/ sky 0160 in a minute. lets have a listen.

howlinwolf · 01-11-2013 2:05pm

looks really pretty on the sat images ....looks to be only winding up rather than winding down as is the case with storms that race across the atlantic.......still no real warnings on met eireann though?

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 2:25pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

looks really pretty on the sat images ....looks to be only winding up rather than winding down as is the case with storms that race across the atlantic.......still no real warnings on met eireann though?

No warnings from Met Eireann because of this :

The models track the center of the low over Ireland. That keeps the windfield down south, off the coast. It will have to shift track further north or maintain very tight isobars close to the center for there to be stormy conditions inland from the coast.

pad199207 · 01-11-2013 2:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

No warnings from Met Eireann because of this :

The models track the center of the low over Ireland. That keeps the windfield down south, off the coast. It will have to shift track further north or maintain very tight isobars close to the center for there to be stormy conditions inland from the coast.

For someone who enjoys exciting weather events, this chart is a real P*ss me off kinda chart!

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 4:20pm

Latest GME has this further south.

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 4:32pm

NAE quite consistent at 12z.

First swathe of intense winds restricted to the far south and southwest early Tomorrow as centre of low moves over Ireland.

Then later in the day another swathe of intense winds in association with the wrap-around occlusion affect elsewhere.

So risk of gusts to 60/65 knots in southwest, south tomorrow AM/early PM

Then a risk of widespread gusts from 50-60 knots as winds turn west/northwest across a large portion of country.

Storm @ midday

Wrap-around @ 9pm

pad199207 · 01-11-2013 4:37pm

You would think looking at the current sat that a more southern track wouldn't be plausible

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 4:38pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest GME has this further south.

GFS further south too. The same gusts that were shown inland on yesterday's run are hardly reaching the exposed south coast here on the 12Z run!
Cornwall and south Wales looking like getting the worst of it. Any further south and France will be in play. :pac:

Bsal · 01-11-2013 4:43pm

WRF winds from 06z run

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 4:46pm

Xenji · 01-11-2013 4:47pm

So what are the chances of this turning into a event around Mayo, or are we just looking at Cork and Kerry as it stands.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 5:05pm

Xenji wrote: »

So what are the chances of this turning into a event around Mayo, or are we just looking at Cork and Kerry as it stands.

Starting to look again like not much more than a windy day apart from the exposed southern coasts, and even there it's looking a bit less windy on every run. There will be fierce winds, but only out at sea. But at least it'll look nice on the satellite passing over. In fact the center could well pass directly over Mayo so for a time you'll have the lightest winds anywhere in the country. :pac:

howlinwolf · 01-11-2013 5:09pm

Yeah I don't think anywhere in Ireland will see anything not even the far south, south of England could get hit again though

pad199207 · 01-11-2013 5:11pm

Met Eireann now giving a warning of Force 10 on Southern Coasts

leahyl · 01-11-2013 5:12pm

Oh for Gods sake, I'm sick of all this false hope....I'm getting a case of deja vu :pac:

sunbabe08 · 01-11-2013 5:39pm

thought that was a joke. holy smokes. orange status on met eireann:eek::eek::D bring it on

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 5:56pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

thought that was a joke. holy smokes. orange status on met eireann:eek::eek::D bring it on

It's a marine alert though. I wouldn't fancy being out on a boat.

Cantona's Collars · 01-11-2013 6:10pm

On the topic of rough seas,interesting doc on NatgeoWild now.Explains a lot about these storms.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 6:19pm

The last view before sunset.

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 7:07pm

Just to further assist our watch on this storm, the M6 buoy has gone blink. Hasn't updated since 3pm.

- Wouldn't be surprised to see a 70kt gust in the southwest/south coast tomorrow.

Places like Valentia/Sherkin

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 7:21pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just to further assist our watch on this storm, the M6 buoy has gone blink. Hasn't updated since 3pm.

- Wouldn't be surprised to see a 70kt gust in the southwest/south coast tomorrow.

Places like Valentia/Sherkin

Hopefully the M6 comes back online. It was down for 2 hours earlier this morning.

70 knots sounds a tad high!

ninebeanrows · 01-11-2013 7:32pm

Latest ECMWF at 24 hours has sustained 50 knot winds along the Kerry, west Cork coastline @ midday.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 8:21pm

M6 buoy is back online.

plot_met.php?station=62095&meas=pres&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT

01-11-2013 8:25pm

Wouldn't be much rain associated with this over land would there?

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 9:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Wouldn't be much rain associated with this over land would there?

A front will cross the country earlier in the morning with beefy showers following in then behind it.

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 10:49pm

The center is about 250km west of the M6 buoy now. Pressure at M6 dropping like a stone (see above), 995mb at 9pm.

howlinwolf · 01-11-2013 11:00pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The center is about 250km west of the M6 buoy now. Pressure at M6 dropping like a stone (see above), 995mb at 9pm.

any chance of this system pulling north a little over the next few hours maq...or has that boat sailed:rolleyes:

Xenji · 01-11-2013 11:06pm

Have seen two helicopters twice heading to Mayo General in the last while, coast guard ones as well, wonder how wild it is out at sea now and hope everyone is ok.

Oscar Bravo · 01-11-2013 11:23pm

A very busy day for Medevac 112,it has landed at Castlebar hospital 3 times today on separate call outs. Rescue 118 was at Mweelrea/Killary harbour for the 3rd day in a row trying to locate a missing climber. passed over Castlebar on the way back to Sligo but did not land.

Iancar29 · 01-11-2013 11:53pm

Considering its associated with this spell might aswell post in here.

ESTOFEX LEVEL 1 for Southern half of the country 2moro.

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2013110306_201311012223_1_stormforecast.xml

showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2013110306_201311012223_1_stormforecast.xml

A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Wales for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A broad zonal flow covers most parts of Europe, distorted by a progressive, deepening trough and another powerful cyclone which cross the British Isles during the forecast period. Minimal and rather shallow CAPE is forecast in the belt of augmented low-level moisture along its cold front over Northern Portugal, Northern Spain and France, and then again in its wake over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay, where lapse rates steepen in response to QG lift. Shower activity in these areas may be accompanied by a few lightning strikes. 0-3 km vertical wind shear does not exceed 15 m/s, but the strong background wind field can promote some severe wind gusts even with weakly organized convection over Ireland and Wales (25-30 m/s flow at 850 hPa).

maquiladora · 01-11-2013 11:53pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

any chance of this system pulling north a little over the next few hours maq...or has that boat sailed:rolleyes:

I don't see any major change in track right now.

You can see it here :

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013110122&size=large&lang=en&map=Europe&area=eur

Estimated at 985mb at 10pm. It updates at around 12 minutes past the hour, but only using model data, you have to wait until about 45 minutes past the hour then refresh and it will have redrawn the chart with buoy data added in. The M6 buoy is the one nearest the center there.

Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

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