Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

kit3 · 23-10-2013 4:46pm

When do we hit a reliable time frame for Monday ?

rickdangerouss · 23-10-2013 4:59pm

kit3 wrote: »

When do we hit a reliable time frame for Monday ?

For this event, I read around Friday on-wards.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 5:16pm

12Z GFS puts the low on more southerly track, strongest winds hundreds of miles further south than on the last run just 6 hours ago, instead it's northwest France gets the brunt.

No strong winds for here at all from that (the same model was showing storm force off the east coast this morning, thats how quickly its changing), in fact the strongest winds would be from a different low which the GFS is tracking closer to Ireland than before on this run, on Sunday:

It's not likely we've seen the end of the changes yet.

ninebeanrows · 23-10-2013 6:40pm

No model has got a handle on this yet, GFS transferring more energy on this run to the first low.

UKM has the storm going through central England.

ECMWF will be interesting especially the stamps again.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 7:03pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

No model has got a handle on this yet, GFS transferring more energy on this run to the first low.

UKM has the storm going through central England.

ECMWF will be interesting especially the stamps again.

Ian Fergusson made an interesting point on NW that puts the models in perspective.

Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate.

pauldry · 23-10-2013 10:24pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Ian Fergusson made an interesting point on NW that puts the models in perspective.

Would Dublin marathon be affected

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 10:41pm

The daily express are at it again "Worst storm for 27 years a repeat of the 1987 storm".
Where are they gettin this from when a real Huge storm is on the way no one will listen as they are always over blowing the situation:rolleyes:

pad199207 · 23-10-2013 10:46pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

The daily express are at it again "Worst storm for 27 years a repeat of the 1987 storm".
Where are they gettin this from when a real Huge storm is on the way no one will listen as they are always over blowing the situation:rolleyes:

God give them a bit of slack they said 26 years not 27 years god...

Hooter23 · 23-10-2013 10:47pm

pad199207 wrote: »

God give them a bit of slack they said 26 years not 27 years god...

Ya i just saw that haha

ninebeanrows · 23-10-2013 11:03pm

Well they still have a chance.

GFS bombs it 20mb in 12hrs, rapidly intensifying just prior to hitting UK

Lots of interest in this one yet.

ninebeanrows · 23-10-2013 11:08pm

The 18z would be one of the worst systems to hit the southeast of England in a while, but nothing particularly spectacular. However the prospect of 80mph gusts in that area (which the latest run progs) would gather a lot of media attention.

Everything a bit south at the moment for Ireland but plenty of time to change. And more chance of it heading north if the models are underestimating its intensity at this stage which is very likely.

maquiladora · 23-10-2013 11:45pm

The Weather Channel (UK) have an article and some graphics up about what might happen. This is their version of the worst case, with a more northerly track. In this case very strong winds could impact the east coast here as well as the UK, but the more southerly the track is the less of an impact for us, and there's a reasonable chance that we end up with nothing more than a breeze.

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/severe-weather-outlook-st-jude-day-storm-28th-october-2013-20131023

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 8:49am

Monday's low is still too far south to have an impact on us on this mornings models. Some models don't develop it at all, but the big two, GFS and ECM, both develop it and take it over southern England. The ECM shifted to a more northerly track this morning. Need to keep an eye on it in case of further changes. Far from nailed yet, but at the moment southern England looking most at risk of strong winds.

Harps · 24-10-2013 10:20am

Been very busy of late so haven't been keeping up with things, I'm in the south if England at the moment so I'll be keeping a close eye on this now, looks interesting on this mornings runs for around here.

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 10:31am

Harps wrote: »

Been very busy of late so haven't been keeping up with things, I'm in the south if England at the moment so I'll be keeping a close eye on this now, looks interesting on this mornings runs for around here.

Yep, this kind of thing would be a fairly typical autumn storm for the exposed northwest coast of Ireland or western Scotland, but it's a different kettleofish for southern England where a storm taking a track like this is more rare, and is more densely populated, with a lot more "stuff" that could be damaged by high winds.

Weathering · 24-10-2013 11:13am

Yeah I agree Maq, nothing out of the ordinary up here but it would do a lot of damage in S.England. The Express will have a field day if this happens

odyboody · 24-10-2013 11:16am

seem to recall forecast storms missing us at the last minute when they veer north. Is this lightly to happen or is the predicted track different enough to mean it will stay south.

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, this kind of thing would be a fairly typical autumn storm for the exposed northwest coast of Ireland or western Scotland, but it's a different kettleofish for southern England where a storm taking a track like this is more rare, and is more densely populated, with a lot more "stuff" that could be damaged by high winds.

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 11:32am

UK Met Office not taking any chances. Strongly worded early warning.

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1382918400&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-1.83&lat=53.85

ninebeanrows · 24-10-2013 1:24pm

6z GFS says neigh.

snaps · 24-10-2013 3:05pm

maquiladora wrote: »

UK Met Office not taking any chances. Strongly worded early warning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1382918400&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-1.83&lat=53.85

its made sky news now:
http://m.sky.com/skynews/article/news/1159179

ninebeanrows · 24-10-2013 3:16pm

12z's will be interesting.

If the GFS 12z follows the 6z the chances of an extreme event are much lowered.

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 3:42pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z's will be interesting.

If the GFS 12z follows the 6z the chances of an extreme event are much lowered.

UK Met don't seem to be buying the 06Z GFS route.

They do they show the alternative northerly and southerly tracks too though :

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/Severe-storm-risk

Iancar29 · 24-10-2013 5:00pm

Looks like the Met Office are on the ball so far...
12 z showing possible 85mph GUSTS for the English channel ... starting to decline now any chance of us getting anything out of the ordinary .

ninebeanrows · 24-10-2013 5:15pm

Latest UKM pushes this further north, parts of the south/east are not out of the woods yet. And experience tells us these things can head further north than anticipated.

At T96hr, bombing low has moved rapidly through the UK

UW96-21.GIF?24-18

Sierra Oscar · 24-10-2013 5:18pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest UKM pushes this further north, parts of the south/east are not out of the woods yet. And experience tells us these things can head further north than anticipated.

Indeed, how many times have we narrowly missed a storm at the last minute due to the system pushing an extra fifty miles too far north or the likes? Quite often if I recall correctly!

One to keep an eye on for sure.

dopolahpec · 24-10-2013 5:22pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Indeed, how many times have we narrowly missed a storm at the last minute due to the system pushing an extra fifty miles too far north or the likes? Quite often if I recall correctly!

One to keep an eye on for sure.

I dunno I think as it stands, north or South track changes won't affect us too much. This low is basically in the north Sea when it really develops. It's the Danes and Dutch who need to batten down the hatches.

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 5:35pm

dopolahpec wrote: »

I dunno I think as it stands, north or South track changes won't affect us too much. This low is basically in the north Sea when it really develops. It's the Danes and Dutch who need to batten down the hatches.

It wouldn't take a big shift in track impact to the southeast/east coastal areas here.

Today's 12Z UKMO track and intensity looks something similar to yesterday's 0Z GFS, which looked like this :

Which had storm force winds along the east coast here :

ninebeanrows · 24-10-2013 5:55pm

dexter647 · 24-10-2013 6:02pm

^^^^^:D
Was wondering how long it would take for that classic to pop up

mike65 · 24-10-2013 7:34pm

Indeed, mentioned it was 26 years +10 days since that moment to my sister. Time flies!

mike65 · 24-10-2013 7:37pm

Met Errean have their feet up in front of the fire with a glass of whiskey

Sunday looks like being a very windy blustery showery day, highest temperatures around 11 to 14 degrees with the risk of some severe winds for a time especially in the North.

Sunday night will be rather cold with showers becoming isolated and winds easing. Mist and fog patches will form inland with perhaps a touch of grass frost.

Bank-holiday Monday looks dry for much of the country with sunny spells and isolated showers but there is the risk of some rain clipping the Southeast coast. It will be a cool day with highest temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees in a fresh Northerly wind, blustery around coasts.

Westerly winds look like setting in for Tuesday next bringing a mixture of sunshine and showers

ninebeanrows · 24-10-2013 7:41pm

ECM very interesting with its positioning, again further north, this is very much a fluid situation and e storm could yet impact Ireland.

ECM bombs this over 30hPa in 24hrs

ECM1-96.GIF?24-0

Sierra Oscar · 24-10-2013 8:38pm

Models do indeed seem to be hinting at a more northern path. Will be interesting to see if the next round stick with that line of thought!

ScouseMouse · 24-10-2013 10:30pm

Hi guys and gals.

I dont mean to annoy anyone but whats the opinions for english channel? I happen to be on rosslare - cherbourg ferry sat night 6pm to arrive sunday at noon.

My untrained eye looking at those charts says im in for a Rough ride (if any)

Cheers all.

maquiladora · 24-10-2013 10:58pm

superscouse wrote: »

Hi guys and gals.

I dont mean to annoy anyone but whats the opinions for english channel? I happen to be on rosslare - cherbourg ferry sat night 6pm to arrive sunday at noon.

My untrained eye looking at those charts says im in for a Rough ride (if any)

Cheers all.

At the moment it looks like the timing will be late Sunday to early Monday, so you'll probably be fine if it stays like that.

RobertKK · 25-10-2013 12:12am

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 12:20am

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

It could be a similar type of setup to that yes, but with Wales/England getting the high winds. At the moment though none of the models are showing it taking a track over Ireland. That could change over the next couple of days, but right now we're in the clear.

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 12:56am

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

The synoptic is not too dissimilar to the storm that left my skaletrix in its box on Christmas morning

Villain · 25-10-2013 8:27am

Well the GFS wants to take the ball and go home this morning!

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 8:35am

0Z GME shows it tracking over Ireland. Just one model but something to keep an eye on.

GFS doesn't make much of it this morning, but the ECM, GEM and UKMO (and the Fax charts) all show a strong low heading over the UK, with the ECM being the strongest.

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 8:50am

funny the disparity between the Runs particularly ECM and GFS

with the ECM low being extremely threatening for the UK

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 8:59am

Weathercheck wrote: »

funny the disparity between the Runs particularly ECM and GFS

with the ECM low being extremely threatening for the UK

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 9:02am

The ECMWF at 81 hours has the low centre at 964hPa with the low centre positioned just east of Anglesey.

Some severe winds would affext the southeast of Ireland with the systems associated rain bands lashing the east coast.

Most severe winds would be up the Bristol Channel and along the Cornish coast with sustained winds exceeding 50kt. The system moves rapidly eastwards just north of Hull 3 hours later with severe land gales over parts of southern UK, with inland sustained winds of >40kt which is quite exceptional.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 9:04am

Met Eireann highlighting the potential risk for here, all depends on the track and development. And this was written before the 0Z ECM.

There is the potential for some very wet and windy weather on Bank-Holiday Monday.

A weather system looks like producing some very heavy falls of rain and there will be some very strong winds too. There is the potential for localised flooding in the south and east of the country. The positioning of this low will determine where the heaviest falls are. The rain will clear away to the east early in the afternoon and then showers will develop.

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:25am

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann highlighting the potential risk for here, all depends on the track and development. And this was written before the 0Z ECM.

Sorry but what's the significance of the OZ ECM change? No meterological knowledge but crossed fingers re Dublin Marathon on Monday morning...

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 10:26am

Rolex_ wrote: »

Sorry but what's the significance of the OZ ECM change? No meterological knowledge but crossed fingers re Dublin Marathon on Monday morning...

Looks like being a washout with heavy rain likely to reach Dublin and the risk of a short period of intense winds but the rain part (70%) is a lot more likely than the wind part (30%).

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:31am

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like being a washout with heavy rain likely to reach Dublin and the risk of a short period of intense winds but the rain part (70%) is a lot more likely than the wind part (30%).

Thanks. Wind is more of an issue for the marathon than rain. A few very heavy showers less of a problem than sustained heavy rain. Marathon starts at 9 and most people done by 1.30 or so. Will continue to watch your thread with interest!

hypersonic · 25-10-2013 10:42am

Rolex_ wrote: »

Thanks. Wind is more of an issue for the marathon than rain. A few very heavy showers less of a problem than sustained heavy rain. Marathon starts at 9 and most people done by 1.30 or so. Will continue to watch your thread with interest!

Is it clockwise or anticlockwise this year? If it's anticlockwise, the N11 into a Gael force northerly wind would be fun. :pac:

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:45am

hypersonic wrote: »

Is it clockwise or anticlockwise this year? If it's anticlockwise, the N11 into a Gael force northerly wind would be fun. :pac:

Exactly. It's anticlockwise with miles 22-25 heading northwest into town from Stillorgan. If there were a gale force headwind there would be carnage (assuming it were even safe to let the race go ahead)

howlinwolf · 25-10-2013 11:02am

Then it's likely to rapidly intensify just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday.

"There is still a chance this storm may take a more southerly track and miss the UK, bringing impacts elsewhere in northern Europe, but people should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption.

that's from the met office in England, seems to be less and less likely that it will track further north and impact us ....lets wait and see

Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

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