Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

heebusjeebus · 15-11-2018 3:57pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

yeah PP odds are always poor when it comes to rugby.

PP also have NZ winning margin 1-12 at 2/1 too. Think ye are confusing this market with the handicaps.

aloooof · 15-11-2018 3:59pm

heebusjeebus wrote: »

PP also have NZ winning margin 1-12 at 2/1 too. Think ye are confusing this market with the handicaps.

Don't think so. Just checked it now, winning Margin market for NZ 1-12 is 8/5 as syd said.

https://www.paddypower.com/rugby-union/international-matches/ireland-v-new-zealand-28639996

heebusjeebus · 15-11-2018 4:21pm

aloooof wrote: »

Don't think so. Just checked it now, winning Margin market for NZ 1-12 is 8/5 as syd said.

https://www.paddypower.com/rugby-union/international-matches/ireland-v-new-zealand-28639996

Ah ok. I got it earlier at 2/1. Probably before the squad announcement.

franglan · 16-11-2018 1:23am

Gone for NZ - 2 @7/10. We'll see if it's great valyeah!

The Caveman · 16-11-2018 12:31pm

any advice for putting €20 on Scotland vs SA Game?

sydthebeat · 16-11-2018 3:10pm

The Caveman wrote: »

any advice for putting €20 on Scotland vs SA Game?

Under 48.5 points

This could be a slogfest of forwards

sydthebeat · 16-11-2018 3:29pm

The real mccoy 91 · 16-11-2018 5:25pm

The Caveman wrote: »

any advice for putting €20 on Scotland vs SA Game?

My money is going on Scotland to win also will be playing seymour and hogg anytime tryscorers 6/4 and 11/5

The real mccoy 91 · 16-11-2018 5:27pm

Right have 2 of the 3 games covered with my bets
Scotland win 13/10
Hogg anytime 11/5
Seymour anytime 6/4

Ashton to score 2 tries 6/5
Ashton hat trick 4/1
Ashton motm 12/1

Just need to figure out ireland now
Atm I like the 7/2 about stander and ringrose anytime they look a touch big imo

Leinstertomas · 17-11-2018 12:59pm

Ireland +10
Scotland +9
Georgia to beat Samoa
Treble just over 2/1. Slightly cautious maybe but think that's decent odds.

Also gone for a wee double on Hogg to score anytime and Ashton to score 2 or more at 4/1.

The real mccoy 91 · 17-11-2018 1:20pm

James Ryan motm 12s
Stander anytime 7/2
Mckenzie anytime 2/1

The real mccoy 91 · 17-11-2018 1:21pm

Adding one for the England game
George first try ashton to score 2+ tries 20/1

Kinda looking at it as 20/1 on George first as I think ash will have a field day

sydthebeat · 19-11-2018 10:47pm

chris farrell 3/1 to make the RWC squad

i think thats value

Squidgy Black · 20-11-2018 3:05pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

chris farrell 3/1 to make the RWC squad

i think thats value

I'd argue that those are fairly low odds. Will he beat out Addison considering Addison can cover back three also? Wouldn't be surprised to see Aki/Henshaw/Ringrose, 5 halfbacks, Stockdale/Larmour/Kearney/Earls/Conway and then Addison.

thomond2006 · 20-11-2018 3:16pm

Farrell is coming off a very serious injury and he had a history of injuries at Ulster. I'd probably need at least 5/1.

sydthebeat · 20-11-2018 3:39pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Farrell is coming off a very serious injury and he had a history of injuries at Ulster. I'd probably need at least 5/1.

fitness and form is assumed

theres quite a bit in farrells development to light him as a schmidt favourite and target.

if it was a straight shoot out with him and addison i think hed get it, i think we've plenty of utility cover in the squad if it was selected tomorrow.

obviously at 3/1 its an outside gamble, i just think theres value there currently.

sydthebeat · 21-11-2018 6:27pm

i think USA are very under estimated, and ireland over estimated at a 38 point spread.

The eagles have lost 1 game out of 11 in a year, which includes wins over Scotland, Samoa and Argentina.. so they arent coming as whipping boys.

Ireland will have wholesale changes with Joe surely giving starts to the likes of Big Stu, Addison, Kilcoyne, Porter, Ross Byrne, Roux, Herring etc.... at least anyone who hasnt started a game yet.

The real mccoy 91 · 21-11-2018 7:48pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

i think USA are very under estimated, and ireland over estimated at a 38 point spread.

The eagles have lost 1 game out of 11 in a year, which includes wins over Scotland, Samoa and Argentina.. so they arent coming as whipping boys.

Ireland will have wholesale changes with Joe surely giving starts to the likes of Big Stu, Addison, Kilcoyne, Porter, Ross Byrne, Roux, Herring etc.... at least anyone who hasnt started a game yet.

But you could look at the flip side as all the replacements will be out to make enough of an impression to seal their place in the squad for next year? It's a tricky one but I think we have quite decent strength in depth at this stage

sydthebeat · 23-11-2018 3:41pm

hoping for a lucrative weekend

thomond2006 · 23-11-2018 3:47pm

How does one 'power up'?

mrcheez · 23-11-2018 3:50pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

How does one 'power up'?

It's added randomly to your account. Not sure what qualifies you though.

You just select "Power Up" when looking at your bet slip and each bet uses one of your power ups.

Very handy for raising short odds.

The Pheasant2 · 23-11-2018 3:59pm

Don't bet against Leinster personally but were I a neutral I'd be all over Ospreys on the spread

sydthebeat · 23-11-2018 4:44pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

How does one 'power up'?

loose lodza monie from your account???? :P:P:P:P

The Pheasant2 · 24-11-2018 1:54pm

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Don't bet against Leinster personally but were I a neutral I'd be all over Ospreys on the spread

How wrong I was! Some performance from the young un's

sydthebeat · 24-11-2018 2:21pm

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

How wrong I was!

Me too...
I'm as embarrassed as an ospreys fan today....

Del.Monte · 24-11-2018 2:34pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Me too...
I'm as embarrassed as an ospreys fan today....

I stayed away from the game - considered Leinster -7 and then thought too risky.

Del.Monte · 24-11-2018 9:59pm

A good day, not a great day - about 35% ahead. Feckin TMO with the Luke McGrath try - shades of my 60/1 bet on the Draw in the Aviva in 2013 when Aaron Cruden re-took the conversion to make it 22-24.

sydthebeat · 26-11-2018 1:58pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

hoping for a lucrative weekend

Needed Johnny to win in order to break even.....

mrcheez · 26-11-2018 3:10pm

How are you getting so many power ups? I only get 1

sydthebeat · 26-11-2018 3:30pm

mrcheez wrote: »

How are you getting so many power ups? I only get 1

honestly dunno...might have something to do with spacing them out timewise.???

sydthebeat · 26-11-2018 3:30pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

chris farrell 3/1 to make the RWC squad

i think thats value

i see he's now gone into 2/1

thomond2006 · 29-11-2018 1:13pm

Gone for Munster -17. It's already moved to -18 and I don't think it will stick there.

sydthebeat · 29-11-2018 1:15pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Gone for Munster -17. It's already moved to -18 and I don't think it will stick there.

yeah i took that as well... calm weather forecasted

aloooof · 29-11-2018 1:28pm

Gone to -25 already.

razorblunt · 29-11-2018 1:51pm

Jumped on at 25. 17 would have been a licence to print money!

Leinstertomas · 29-11-2018 2:12pm

razorblunt wrote: »

Jumped on at 25. 17 would have been a licence to print money!

Was at 10 the other day! Raging I didn't jump on it but think it was before Cockerill said he wouldn't have internationals.

thomond2006 · 29-11-2018 2:17pm

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Was at 10 the other day! Raging I didn't jump on it but think it was before Cockerill said he wouldn't have internationals.

Yikes, I missed that.

thomond2006 · 29-11-2018 9:04pm

It's out to -28 now.

beertons · 29-11-2018 9:15pm

Don't be teasing is with your -18. Little value now.

sydthebeat · 01-12-2018 2:59pm

Took my munster winnings and put it all on leinster - 8

Del.Monte · 01-12-2018 10:15pm

@ sydthebeat

Another close run thing - thanks for the heads up.

sydthebeat · 04-12-2018 5:35pm

newcastle +7 away to edinburgh

The real mccoy 91 · 04-12-2018 6:08pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

newcastle +7 away to edinburgh

Newcastle and munster -17 the only bits that look like value to me at this stage. Value in the sense that I see Newcastle shortening and munsters spread getting bigger by kick off

sydthebeat · 04-12-2018 6:28pm

the only thing about a wide spread at this stage, at this time of year, is the risk of weather becoming a leveller.

in the Newcastle case i think the odds are short enough not to have a major impact, and in any case, i think heavier weather would suit newcastle more.

i wouldnt be as confident on castre being that bad though.

aloooof · 04-12-2018 6:30pm

Considering Montpellier -2. If Toulon go behind early, they might not feel they've much to play for, being bottom of the table on 1 point.

sydthebeat · 07-12-2018 11:14am

sydthebeat wrote: »

newcastle +7 away to edinburgh

scrap that....

gone out to +15 now after injury news .

probably worth a punt at that spread.. though windy weather could mean more scrums and thus more pressure on newcastle.

sydthebeat · 07-12-2018 11:17am

racing -17 against Leicester

Del.Monte · 07-12-2018 1:07pm

Newcastle to win @ 13/2 is my wild one of the weekend - so far.

thomond2006 · 07-12-2018 1:09pm

I've taken Newcastle +15. No other handicaps stand out really, though if Newcastle comes through I might follow up with Glasgow +2 away to Lyon.

razorblunt · 07-12-2018 1:56pm

Took Newcastle +7, should have waited!
Looking at Pau -12, at home to Worcester now too.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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