Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 11:26pm

GFS looking good so far, precip charts at +186 showing streamers in the Irish sea? Or at least something there, models are never very good with that.

Marengo · 18-01-2019 11:26pm

It gets better by the frame. This run is Epic

Caveats: Just one run from GFS. Terms and conditions apply. However we can enjoy it. A week away.

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 11:28pm

Definite something happening in the Irish sea on this run, its showing plenty of precip in it. Much better then the 12z but more consistancy needed, still a model by model thing now.

sryanbruen · 18-01-2019 11:29pm

Now that's a beaut of a run. Just for fun.

Tuesday:

Saturday 26th:

Marengo · 18-01-2019 11:35pm

Lads if the ECM and UKMO came on board over night. We could dare to dream!

SleetAndSnow · 18-01-2019 11:36pm

Not sure if its a sign or not but ''We are the champions'' by Queen just came on when the good easterly appeared for me.. Oh well!

Needless to say this is the setup that we all want. It isn't called the 'Pub Run' for no reason though. 18z FI stuff rarely comes off IIRC from my limited knowledge! It just keeps going and going.

Reckless Abandonment · 18-01-2019 11:38pm

It's ok I guess

Mortelaro · 18-01-2019 11:39pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Now that's a beaut of a run. Just for fun.

Tuesday:

Saturday 26th:

That's deep convective cold and unusually a Southeasterly
Out with the ruler and pen to check length of convection fetch
Looks shallowwe further up the east coast you go

Gonzo · 18-01-2019 11:40pm

that GFS run is quite something, now if only the other models would do the same. Probably sub-zero days and nights, certainly some heavy snow/hail showers, with a bit of luck some dinnerplate action.

Worried about what tomorrow will bring, that run was so good.

squarecircles · 18-01-2019 11:43pm

it takes something special to get the blue sub zero shading to spill out over the west coast.

Scubadevils · 18-01-2019 11:48pm

What an absolute rollercoaster... the emotional swings with these runs are incredible!

Snowbiee21 · 18-01-2019 11:51pm

It’s a shame it’s the 18z the so called “pub” run , we need this trend to take its way into the 00z If a dream was to come a reality

screamer · 18-01-2019 11:51pm

I saw weird clouds this morning that were so low they were feeding down onto the ground in the fields...,,something strange is happening with the weather and I’ll not be surprised if we are in the freezer in the next few days.

Gonzo · 18-01-2019 11:52pm

Scubadevils wrote: »

What an absolute rollercoaster... the emotional swings with these runs are incredible!

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Scubadevils · 18-01-2019 11:55pm

Gonzo wrote: »

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Pretty sure we had similar flip/flops across the models in the run up to 2009 and 2010 - I reckon 2019 will be to 2018 what 2010 was to 2009, hopefully we don't have to wait as long then after...

JCX BXC · 18-01-2019 11:58pm

Beautiful beautiful run, but some part of me fears that it's just as outlandish as the ECM 12Z, just in the other direction. However, it's so good that at least we've wiggle room!

On a different and much more reliable note, it's looking like we could have some nice widespread snow on Tuesday morning before sunrise, the GFS certainly bullish, showing snow even over Galway bay. However, it looks very showery so could be hit and miss.

Billcarson · 18-01-2019 11:59pm

Scubadevils wrote: »

Gonzo wrote: »

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Pretty sure we had similar flip/flops across the models in the run up to 2009 and 2010 - I reckon 2019 will be to 2018 what 2010 was to 2009, hopefully we don't have to wait as long then after...

No where near as many flip flops as this. 2010 in particular worked down like clock work bar the odd wobble.

Scubadevils · 19-01-2019 12:01am

Billcarson wrote: »

No where near as many flip flops as this. 2010 in particular worked down like clock work bar the odd wobble.

I can't say which but I certainly remember a few over the years - maybe they were the ones that ended in tears ultimately. I'm curious to look back now at the various years that worked out.

sryanbruen · 19-01-2019 12:03am

I wasn't here on the model watching scene in 2010 but if I were to guess, I would think one reason why signals for cold were very strong that year was down to the fact that -NAO was really clear given the extreme nature of the North Atlantic tripole which favoured very -NAO.

This paper discusses the impacts of the North Atlantic SST anomalies as well as 2009-10 and November/December 2010 extreme Winter weather.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00104.1

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 12:05am

dew points for Tuesday look decent:

18_90_ukdp.png?cb=1801201918

Some potential for snow this Tuesday:
18_84_preciptype.png?cb=1801201918

A rather chilly Tuesday afternoon:
18_93_uk2mtmp.png?cb=1801201918

Billcarson · 19-01-2019 12:09am

You never know. Tuesday could surprise many of us. Probably not but.......

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 12:10am

No look at it again ;-)

JCX BXC · 19-01-2019 12:13am

Ah stop, you'll give people on here heart failure!

TECH85 · 19-01-2019 12:15am

pad199207 wrote: »

No look at it again ;-)

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 12:15am

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

No seriously look at it again ...

giveitholly · 19-01-2019 12:15am

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

Look again!

SleetAndSnow · 19-01-2019 12:15am

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

check the date on that

MJohnston · 19-01-2019 12:16am

Ye should be banned for that!

TECH85 · 19-01-2019 12:17am

Haha , i re read it, and then deleted. You will give people heartattacks with that carry on ;-p

giveitholly · 19-01-2019 12:18am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Game on yipeeeeeee

Ah here

Snowbiee21 · 19-01-2019 12:18am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Game on yipeeeeeee

Oh no he done me there

sryanbruen · 19-01-2019 12:20am

Gonzo wrote: »

dew points for Tuesday look decent:

850hPa temps, dew points and thickness all look really nice for some of the good ol' sneachta in northern and eastern parts of the country on Tuesday on this GFS 18z run and many other previous runs. Precipitation would be another matter however.

SleetAndSnow · 19-01-2019 12:22am

looks like the GFS/P is going for it now too, wonder how similar it could be/different. It was totally different for a few days but seems to be heading back to cold

Snowbiee21 · 19-01-2019 12:23am

sryanbruen wrote: »

850hPa temps, dew points and thickness all look really nice for some of the good ol' sneachta in northern and eastern parts of the country on Tuesday on this GFS 18z run and many other previous runs. Precipitation would be another matter however.

What are we expeciting from this on Tuesday , a few hour event ?

hatrickpatrick · 19-01-2019 12:41am

Yis dirty FECKERS.

That was some of the best trolling I've seen in a while

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 12:44am

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Yis dirty FECKERS.

That was some of the best trolling I've seen in a while

;-) I screenshotted it last year and seen it in my gallery this evening and said I’d have some fun on boards while it’s after 11 and quiet after today’s madness :-P

sryanbruen · 19-01-2019 12:49am

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

What are we expeciting from this on Tuesday , a few hour event ?

Nothing much if anything currently for Dublin. It's a northwesterly which will bring some scattered snow showers to various places but it'll be just a very cold and sunny Winter's day for here.

Working class heroes · 19-01-2019 1:14am

pad199207 wrote: »

No look at it again ;-)

Ya fcuking bollox ya

Marengo · 19-01-2019 1:20am

In fairness Met Eireann have come on board in a big way with a warning issued at midnight..:eek:

The longevity of this cold spell could be unprecedented since the winter of 1739-1740 or even back to the winter of Lorna Doone, 1683-84.

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2019 1:21am

At the moment, the model consensus is "you wanna go outside?"

highdef · 19-01-2019 1:21am

After reading through some of the replies to Pad199207's hilarious post, it goes to show that a lot of posters here fail to look at the little details. A good reader of the various weather model charts will probably have looked right through Pad199207's post and seen the date immediately and knew it was a joke.

Now it's easy to see who the amateurs are here!

Marengo · 19-01-2019 1:25am

highdef wrote: »

After reading through she of the replies to Pad199207's hilarious post, it goes to show that a lot of posters here fail to look at the little details. A good reader of the various weather model charts will probably have looked right through Pad199207's post and seen the date immediately and knew it was a joke.

Now it's easy to see who the amateurs are here!

I think only one poster fell for it though:D

highdef · 19-01-2019 1:28am

Marengo wrote: »

I think only one poster fell for it though:D

Definitely at least 2 fell for it... Possibly a third.

Marengo · 19-01-2019 1:30am

highdef wrote: »

Definitely at least 2 fell for it... Possibly a third.

Yeah, just re read

Ultimate Seduction · 19-01-2019 2:23am

Ouch!

nacho libre · 19-01-2019 4:36am

Icon is bad news. The Azores high wants to pays us a visit.

Is Yan Sno running it?:P
Considering the Icon led the way last February, this cold spell is by no means a done deal.

snowstorm445 · 19-01-2019 5:29am

The rinse repeat downgrades this morning, UKMO high sinks over Ireland bringing in cold air to Southern Britain but not much for us, easterly doesn’t even get going on the GFS.

GEM looks good but then it’s not a particularly highly rated model.

nacho libre · 19-01-2019 6:03am

The cold arrives in Ireland eventually on the GFS. It's just frustrating to see it be pushed back again.

YanSno · 19-01-2019 8:24am

GFS 0Z more in line with ECM this morning. Last night GFS 18z was a cold outlier you could see it's trying to correct itself this morning expect more downgrade to follow during the day.

Mortelaro · 19-01-2019 8:39am

Reading the U.S nws summaries,still a lot of uncertainty on the particulars of the overnight northeaster in the states and on what follows, so to me I'm waiting untill Monday morning now for a handle on what's coming as it has such a bearing on what happens here and their lack of confidence in any one run is quite telling if you get me?

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments