Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

pad199207 wrote: »

First of the numerous disappointments we are going to have this year no doubt.

It wasn’t really looking very exciting in the first place.

It's way more than the first!

fraxinus1 wrote: »

And where was all this cold supposedly coming from? Europe isn’t exactly freezing and neither is Russia.

No one seems to have told Tv3 its all off as a dramatic change to cold at the weekend they say

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Am I to presume all the negativity is for the GFS run ?

The mecca of all Negativity ( Net Weather ) Still seems pretty upbeat , a lot thinking the GFS is a slight upgrade , Im only now getting to look through the charts and will watch the ECM roll out .

no, ukmo more so. though if that s murr guy still thinks it will happen then we are fine. he is always right.........

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Relax and see what the ECM brings guys, FI is at +120hrs max at the moment. This has a long way to run yet, for better or worse.

Looks very good to me.

pad199207 wrote: »

Is there still any discussion left anymore with this weekend coming or is the thread still best left up?

Didn't see any point of it in the first place.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Where’s the cold air coming from in it?
There is NONE
How is that very good?
Laughably the folk on netweather seem to think any easterly is snow
It is if we’ve entered a parallel universe where the freezing level is 8c

Think you're going completely bonkers honestly, courtesy of the pessimism that has suddenly rolled in after the GFS and UKMO runs.

I see nothing wrong with the ECM 12z, it comes from down that way initially on the 10th before gradually bringing in some very cold air from the east as shown by the upper air temperatures.

I have friends whom are huge weather enthusiasts too and they haven't a clue what you're talking 'bout. I tried asking them what you are trying to get at but nope, they don't know either.

If you're not happy with it, you'll never be satisfied.

EDIT: The cold is going round the high and then flowing to us from the continent than directly from the Mediterranean.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The only cold uppers I see are in the Carpathian Mountains somewhere
That air in tonight’s feed simply does not head for GB or Ireland in the flow on any chart published tonight
Air from the Eastern med does
I’ve had this conversation with net weather posters before and it’s always the same,they don’t get it
A week later they move on forgetting the lesson only to carry on the same again if similar Synoptics turn up again
I’ve seen this before
Let’s be realistic and not try overturn geography

Tonight’s output needs to revert back to what it was showing yesterday period.

See, I am thinking realistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I am not expecting much (I don't want to be disappointed like last year), the most I expect and want is 4c and crisp Winter sunshine after all. That's pretty much why I consider it very good, as those are the kind of temperatures I would receive here in the kind of airstream it shows. So I'm not expecting absolute blizzards or even some decent streamers. My "very good" is quite different to many posters here.

I am not trying to overhype the ECM runs btw also, especially after last year's phantom easterlies as well as the late 2012 cold spell I've been hearing.

I know what discussion with other netweather posters is like, tell me about it, it's a pain, I try and stay away from that forum as much as possible, not worth your time.

We'll see how it goes because there's far too much uncertainty.

Very good detailed forecast here by Met Uk on the upcoming cold spell
https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155468313539209/

There still is the possibility of big backtracks (they would have to be BIG backtracks) tomorrow and Friday.

Stranger things have happened,

I just find it hard to believe that the current turbulent weather pattern at the moment will be that easy to halt and for winds to turn easterly.

So much negativity. So many snowflakes

The forecast has not changed one iota.

In relation to the wind direction from Sunday night to midweek, it's true that upper level temperatures are not that low on some models, however surface temperatures coming off the near continent will still be cold particularly at night with generally sub-zero two meter temperatures.

Daytime temperatures will typically be ranging 1 - 3c

I would not be paying undue attention to temperatures at the higher altitudes this far out - that's volatile to say the least and subject to quick changes.

It will take time given the orientation of the high to get the much lower temperatures to come around westward from the Baltic regions - but it's remarkable how fast colder air moves over land in the right circumstances.

What we may be seeing is the beginning of a long and progressively colder period of weather with snow ultimately for some and possibly many.

As regards the weekend nothing has changed at all. Dry for most but some showers on east coasts - these of hail and snow overnight Saturday toward east coasts. A very severe frost Saturday and Sunday nights practically everywhere - temperatures could fall as low as -5c in the north midlands.

What happens from Monday is still fluid and changing. The favorite outcome is a slack and cold east or southeast continental airflow.

This could be preparation for a far more potent easterly regime for later next week with disruptive weather - that is very much still on the table.

Hang in, is this thread for Friday-Sunday or for later? Too many threads on the go...

What about any snow potential later Fri night into sat morning , my eye is on that.