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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

arctictree

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

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Kermit.de.frog

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Friday / Saturday and if it develops futher we will look at it then

Saturday/Sunday

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Saturday/Sunday

Very tame affair altogether. No real low-level cold there to tap into and heights rising all the time.

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Saturday/Sunday

Nothing there screams worthy of a thread

Rebelbrowser

the overnight 0z models are even worse for coldies I am afraid. This weekend gets a touch milder again and the easterly no longer happens except for a very watered down affair for a day on the ecm.

Villain

The ball was burst yesterday, it has been buried today, not sure why people are in denial.

Kermit.de.frog

This thread is for the weekend. As specified next week is full of uncertainty.

Post in the 120 + thread for that.

Rebelbrowser

Not what we hoped for but nothing mild about this weekend for east coast even on 6z gfs...

75-7UK.GIF?04-6

George Sunsnow

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not what we hoped for but nothing mild about this weekend for east coast even on 6z gfs...

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

JCX BXC

I'll enjoy the nice proper frosts anyway!

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

Well intuition will always make you doubt model ouput showing an unstable north easterlies because nine times out of 10 snowy easterlies and north easterlies prove to be phantoms. That's why you won't see Met Eireann forecasters mentioning an unstable northeasterly airflow five days in advance.
Also, bearing all this in mind, it's easy for the posters who say i told you so... to be right. We should always, as has been said many times before, hope for the best but manage our expectations
if we live long enough we should see an easterly or a north easterly depicted on a model come to fruition at some stage. of course we- those of us who like snow, would all love if it happened frequently, but then again if we were guranteed heavy snow every winter, and violent thunderstorms every summer, would we appreciate them as much as we do? I doubt I would to be honest

pistolpetes11

Whats the feelings on this ?

Close and move to general winter thread ?

P

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Showers Dublin northwards on that
Mixed wintry precipitation probably
Nothing too exciting,certainly no need for a thread in hindsight but we have one now
Next week back to Atlantic goodness after our high sinks
Terrible model guidance in the last week,and an agregious error by me to be optimistic based on models that post 48hours simply discieve again and again
They’re fine giving a broader scale idea of what’s there
But for forecasting you need experienced human brains

Only said what happened to being optimistic because you told us to be optimistic, pretty hypocritical.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So stay positive coldies

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Whats the feelings on this ?

Close and move to general winter thread ?

P

Yeah.

Birdnuts

Proper Easterly Blasts have gone the way of summer Spanish plumes these days!! Haven't experienced eithier for decades at this stage - I guess I was spoilt in the 80's;)

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

Only said what happened to being optimistic because you told us to be optimistic, pretty hypocritical.

Frankly,this kind of nonsense is what makes this forum unwelcoming
In fairness you need to google hypocritical and negativity to get a proper understanding of them because you are wrong about my attitude

When there’s decent Synoptics ,I’ll suggest positivity about them
There was and I did
When they’re gone I’ll be realistic
My statement about being positive related to what we had in front of us versus common enough posts of the it’s all going to go wrong variety
I don’t work like that and I don’t believe anyone should
I’m also not of the stupid winter is over brigade

However What I won’t be at all is Alice in wonderland pulling non existent rabbits out of hats
There will be no rabbits for a few weeks I’m afraid
That dawned on me the other night
No point pretending

No need to close this thread,there could still be some snow about this weekend

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Frankly,this kind of nonsense is what makes this forum unwelcoming
In fairness you need to google hypocritical and negativity to get a proper understanding of them because you are wrong about my attitude

When there’s decent Synoptics ,I’ll suggest positivity about them
There was and I did
When they’re gone I’ll be realistic
My statement about being positive related to what we had in front of us versus common enough posts of the it’s all going to go wrong variety
I don’t work like that and I don’t believe anyone should
I’m also not of the stupid winter is over brigade

However What I won’t be at all is Alice in wonderland pulling non existent rabbits out of hats
There will be no rabbits for a few weeks I’m afraid
That dawned on me the other night
No point pretending

No need to close this thread,there could still be some snow about this weekend

Whilst I disagree with your whole first point to which you were hypocritical - if you're going to be optimistic, be an optimist through and through (that's part of my nature..... I hate changes - I have to mature from hating so), I'm glad you're not part of the "winter is over brigade" because that brigade certainly starts more fires than it puts out. You didn't suggest positivity, you told us coldies to be optimistic, regardless of the negatives such as the stratosphere, the NAO etc.

I'd always go for realism any day over pessimism and optimism anyway. "When they're gone I'll be realistic".... you should be realistic all the time, not just at one stage.

I still stand by the fact of yesterday that you're going over the top and that the outlooks are far from the worst case scenario. There's even talks of a cold February or cold Spring now.

We'll agree to disagree, heavily on this subject, just like I have done so with many this past week.

I didn't mean any hard feelings in anything I've said to you though.

George Sunsnow

Syran,this is all a bit silly
You’re accusing me of being overall negative about winter because I’m realistic about current output going nowhere snowy anytime soon?
Forgive me if I’ve no time for codology like that
Let’s move on

nacho libre

It doesn't look great if you desire snowy cold from the east, however it would be slightly misleading to say it won't be snowy anytime soon. We might get a potent north or north westerly blast in the next two- three weeks. The one positive about cold zonal at this time of year is the likelihood of being the right side of marginal increases as we go on. It won't lead to a foot of snow that hangs around for a several days, but we might be lucky and get a decent covering that lasts for a day or two.

Larbre34

Time to scuttle this puppy, its just shooting a corpse at this stage.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Please adhere to the forum charter.

1. Please refrain from direct personal attacks on any person whether they are members of boards.ie or not.

3. If you wish you to challenge someone's views (on the topic of weather) then please question the post, do not just attack poster.

Charles Babbage

Larbre34 wrote: »

Time to scuttle this puppy, its just shooting a corpse at this stage.

Stone cold dead.

pad199207

Ah lads just close the thread will yee?

Before it turns into a boxing match

Rougies

I don't see the problem with having a thread for this weekend other than the title is slightly misleading now.

It will be cold and frosty with wintry showers for some, what's the harm in having a thread to discuss it? It's not a warning thread, it's a discussion thread. Is the Met Eireann warning level criticism leaking into thread existence criticism now?

I know we justifiably have a lot to moan about regarding lack of exciting weather in this country but can we at least enjoy a frost without bickering over nothing?

force eleven

GFS 18z resurrects a stubborn Scandi high at least. Still all to play for, keep the faith...

Gaoth Laidir

Joanna Donnelly on the radio said showers in the east over the weekend may fall as sleet and snow on hills and mountains.

Villain

Yep time to head up Lug again

pauldry

A Northeasterly airflow to the North of us currently beginning to sink down upon us.

May bring some good (frost, light snow)

You never know

Gonzo

this thread is still relevant to the brief cold snap, a cold weekend to come with plenty of frost and possibly ice on the roads. It just won't be very snowy.

kittyn

Then again you could say that we were not meant to get snow on night of the 29th of December but we did ....... So I guess Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature does despite if we want it or not lol

pauldry

Is Ice exciting enough?

Coz in Sligo it never stops raining (its either light or heavy)

Many many days Met Eireann has had during 2017 "mainly dry with sunny spells" but its been misty or rainy here.

Then on weather reports Markree shows no rainfall so it must be just Sligo towns coastal location and persistent NW winds even when theres a SW everywhere else.

So as ever its misty today but it will freeze on this tonight hence roads will be bottlelike

Gonzo

Sky News weather for what its worth is showing a peppering of wintry showers tomorrow on the east coast south of Dublin with mostly Wicklow, Carlow and Wexford at risk. The wicklow mountains could see some lying snow.