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Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

  • 02-01-2018 9:38pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,045 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Don't want to get ahead of myself but any snow that settles Fri/ sat could hang around for awhile.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    arctictree wrote: »
    OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

    Looking colder but not snowy, there's a brief window on Saturday before the airmass stabilises and pressure rises but temps will likely be too high during the day for any worthwhile snow accumulation.

    After that high pressure looks like taking over so likely cold and sunny with maybe coastal flurries.

    All subject to change obviously but that's what it looks like at the minute


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    By popular demand.

    I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

    There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

    Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

    Severe frost and icy stretches also.

    *I'll update OP with charts shortly

    More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    By popular demand.

    I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

    There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

    Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

    Severe frost and icy stretches also.

    *I'll update OP with charts shortly

    More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated :p

    Am I right in thinking that on Fri night / Sat morning the band of precipitation to the SW could give a few of us down here a nice start to this spell (before attention turns to the east coast)?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,347 ✭✭✭✭ MJohnston


    I'm ready:

    U7UGnpR.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭ vistafinder


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I'm ready:

    U7UGnpR.jpg

    The one on the left will be gone when the ECM switches to the GFS after the morning runs and the item on the right will be on ebay by breakfast time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    There’s lots of interesting cold flavored weather POTENTIAL dangled in front of us possibly in the next fortnight
    Best approach is to baby step it as models aren’t good at tying down details this far out,or even closer(as we saw again tonight) the position of anything is uncertain
    The upcoming fortnight should pique interest though,a little excitement and hopefully a lot?
    As I said in the FI thread a few days ago,an initial northeasterly just about has enough cold this weekend to pep wintry showers in the east
    Missing ingredient is locked in cold over the UK which would help with a surface air cold feed
    Whipping up too much Sea in a strong wind tends to wash out snow and you end up at the coast with sleet or hail

    Against that The source at the w/end is a lower humidity lower dew point feed usually and A less modifiable track than what we get in off the Atlantic

    The missing ingredients may come if this pattern change is sustained
    I’d prefer more northeasterly air (rather than the likely easterly)but our high if the ECM is right wants to bring us something Ukrainian or Russian
    Part 2 is the wait for that cold air to advect west and what it interacts with when it gets here
    It’s not unusual in long fetch easterlies to eventually have disturbances later come out of the Baltic’s somewhere and head west
    We can’t say that’s what we’ll have
    There may be false starts
    I’d be surprised if there’s nothing out of this but obviously that’s possible but it’s not my hunch
    All to play for
    Comment away


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭ rooney30


    Beast Beast Beast


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭ mikeecho


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I'm ready:

    U7UGnpR.jpg

    After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,619 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    mikeecho wrote: »
    After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now :D

    show shpikes, feckin show hashna shance agansh me shpikes


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,317 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    MJohnston wrote: »
    I'm ready:

    U7UGnpR.jpg

    Got a slimmer set in dunes stores in 2010,just after the big freeze ended, never got to use them, on a positive side I was in dunes stores a month or two later and they had a basket full of them for less than a euro each, bought the lot and sent them to the in-laws in Poland


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Day 4 - UKMO

    UN96-7.GIF?03-05


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,837 ✭✭✭ Pa ElGrande




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    Just a word on phase 2
    Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
    Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
    That part is FI of course but trend is friend


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Just a word on phase 2
    Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
    Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
    That part is FI of course but trend is friend

    Looks like phase 1 is a thing of nothing on this mornings ecm however.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭ sparrowcar


    Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pistolpetes11


    sparrowcar wrote: »
    Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?

    Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭ Nettle Soup


    Just a word on phase 2
    Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
    Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
    That part is FI of course but trend is friend

    What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?

    I mean day 10 of a particular nwp run,which on the following days runs should be day 9 and so on if all was going to plan
    Anything beyond day 4 is low reliability


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,230 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34


    When it comes to wintry spells and Ireland, I learned the lesson long ago that anything beyond +36 is low reliability.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    When it comes to Winter and ireland Ive learned that Storms = Reliable, Rain = Reliable, Snow = Gold


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening

    Overall the models this morning are positive for a longer colder period of weather mostly continental dominated.

    How long and how cold are yet to be determined.

    However, very cold over the weekend and that's nailed. Some wintry showers in the east Saturday night and Sunday.

    Very cold inland over night as well. Temperatures well below freezing.

    A different type of air mass in a mainly east/southeast wind than we have been use to so far this winter for next week, drier and colder.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,818 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

    Thanks. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 George Sunsnow


    Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

    Thanks. :)

    Party’s over ,the long fetch easterly won’t be around later either according to the 12z UKMO
    Cold this weekend but rainy showers
    No snow except high ground and not much there either
    I’ve enough sense not to follow this any further regardless of what the ecm shows
    UKMO wants to barrel the N America energy into Ireland now not Southeast


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    gfs very consistent too unfortunately. Kermit goes away for one afternoon and this is what happens!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,994 ✭✭✭ giveitholly


    So will it be back to storms and rain after the weekend?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,201 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Blow it up, ref...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,962 ✭✭✭ Dr Crayfish


    I presume Dublin wont get any snow? All internet weather reports don't have anything below zero for Dublin anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Ah well

    burst-football_ball.jpg?w=238&h=300

    May just climb Lug again :D


This discussion has been closed.
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