Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

arctictree

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

Billcarson

Don't want to get ahead of myself but any snow that settles Fri/ sat could hang around for awhile.

Donegal Storm

arctictree wrote: »

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

Looking colder but not snowy, there's a brief window on Saturday before the airmass stabilises and pressure rises but temps will likely be too high during the day for any worthwhile snow accumulation.

After that high pressure looks like taking over so likely cold and sunny with maybe coastal flurries.

All subject to change obviously but that's what it looks like at the minute

Billcarson

Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.

Kermit.de.frog

By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated

Am I right in thinking that on Fri night / Sat morning the band of precipitation to the SW could give a few of us down here a nice start to this spell (before attention turns to the east coast)?

MJohnston

I'm ready:

vistafinder

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

The one on the left will be gone when the ECM switches to the GFS after the morning runs and the item on the right will be on ebay by breakfast time.

George Sunsnow

There’s lots of interesting cold flavored weather POTENTIAL dangled in front of us possibly in the next fortnight
Best approach is to baby step it as models aren’t good at tying down details this far out,or even closer(as we saw again tonight) the position of anything is uncertain
The upcoming fortnight should pique interest though,a little excitement and hopefully a lot?
As I said in the FI thread a few days ago,an initial northeasterly just about has enough cold this weekend to pep wintry showers in the east
Missing ingredient is locked in cold over the UK which would help with a surface air cold feed
Whipping up too much Sea in a strong wind tends to wash out snow and you end up at the coast with sleet or hail

Against that The source at the w/end is a lower humidity lower dew point feed usually and A less modifiable track than what we get in off the Atlantic

The missing ingredients may come if this pattern change is sustained
I’d prefer more northeasterly air (rather than the likely easterly)but our high if the ECM is right wants to bring us something Ukrainian or Russian
Part 2 is the wait for that cold air to advect west and what it interacts with when it gets here
It’s not unusual in long fetch easterlies to eventually have disturbances later come out of the Baltic’s somewhere and head west
We can’t say that’s what we’ll have
There may be false starts
I’d be surprised if there’s nothing out of this but obviously that’s possible but it’s not my hunch
All to play for
Comment away

rooney30

Beast Beast Beast

mikeecho

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now

Rougies

mikeecho wrote: »

After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now

show shpikes, feckin show hashna shance agansh me shpikes

ZX7R

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

Got a slimmer set in dunes stores in 2010,just after the big freeze ended, never got to use them, on a positive side I was in dunes stores a month or two later and they had a basket full of them for less than a euro each, bought the lot and sent them to the in-laws in Poland

BLIZZARD7

Day 4 - UKMO

Pa ElGrande

earth.nullschool 05/01/2018

earth.nullschool 06/01/2018

earth.nullschool 07/01/2018

George Sunsnow

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

Rebelbrowser

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

Looks like phase 1 is a thing of nothing on this mornings ecm however.....

sparrowcar

Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?

pistolpetes11

sparrowcar wrote: »

Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?

Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening

Nettle Soup

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?

George Sunsnow

Nettle Soup wrote: »

What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?

I mean day 10 of a particular nwp run,which on the following days runs should be day 9 and so on if all was going to plan
Anything beyond day 4 is low reliability

Larbre34

When it comes to wintry spells and Ireland, I learned the lesson long ago that anything beyond +36 is low reliability.

pauldry

When it comes to Winter and ireland Ive learned that Storms = Reliable, Rain = Reliable, Snow = Gold

Kermit.de.frog

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening

Overall the models this morning are positive for a longer colder period of weather mostly continental dominated.

How long and how cold are yet to be determined.

However, very cold over the weekend and that's nailed. Some wintry showers in the east Saturday night and Sunday.

Very cold inland over night as well. Temperatures well below freezing.

A different type of air mass in a mainly east/southeast wind than we have been use to so far this winter for next week, drier and colder.

Kermit.de.frog

Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

Thanks.

George Sunsnow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

Thanks.

Party’s over ,the long fetch easterly won’t be around later either according to the 12z UKMO
Cold this weekend but rainy showers
No snow except high ground and not much there either
I’ve enough sense not to follow this any further regardless of what the ecm shows
UKMO wants to barrel the N America energy into Ireland now not Southeast

Rebelbrowser

gfs very consistent too unfortunately. Kermit goes away for one afternoon and this is what happens!

giveitholly

So will it be back to storms and rain after the weekend?

Gaoth Laidir

Blow it up, ref...

Dr Crayfish

I presume Dublin wont get any snow? All internet weather reports don't have anything below zero for Dublin anyway.

Villain

Ah well



May just climb Lug again

pad199207

First of the numerous disappointments we are going to have this year no doubt.

It wasn’t really looking very exciting in the first place.

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

First of the numerous disappointments we are going to have this year no doubt.

It wasn’t really looking very exciting in the first place.

It's way more than the first!

pad199207

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's way more than the first!

I’m talking about during 2018 as a year

fraxinus1

Lead balloon..... hopes dashed. Surprise surprise.

fraxinus1

And where was all this cold supposedly coming from? Europe isn’t exactly freezing and neither is Russia.

downwiththatsor

fraxinus1 wrote: »

And where was all this cold supposedly coming from? Europe isn’t exactly freezing and neither is Russia.

No one seems to have told Tv3 its all off as a dramatic change to cold at the weekend they say

sryanbruen

fraxinus1 wrote: »

And where was all this cold supposedly coming from? Europe isn’t exactly freezing and neither is Russia.

Whilst I was skeptical of that, the landmass can cool down significantly very fast at this time of year.

pistolpetes11

Am I to presume all the negativity is for the GFS run ?

The mecca of all Negativity ( Net Weather ) Still seems pretty upbeat , a lot thinking the GFS is a slight upgrade , Im only now getting to look through the charts and will watch the ECM roll out .

BLIZZARD7

Relax and see what the ECM brings guys, FI is at +120hrs max at the moment. This has a long way to run yet, for better or worse.

Rebelbrowser

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Am I to presume all the negativity is for the GFS run ?

The mecca of all Negativity ( Net Weather ) Still seems pretty upbeat , a lot thinking the GFS is a slight upgrade , Im only now getting to look through the charts and will watch the ECM roll out .

no, ukmo more so. though if that s murr guy still thinks it will happen then we are fine. he is always right.........

Rebelbrowser

ecm looks same as its 0z so far so still uncertainty reigns

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Relax and see what the ECM brings guys, FI is at +120hrs max at the moment. This has a long way to run yet, for better or worse.

Looks very good to me.

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Relax and see what the ECM brings guys, FI is at +120hrs max at the moment. This has a long way to run yet, for better or worse.

Well I’ve posted what I think of it .... in the FI thread

As for the folks over on netweather,they are the same people posting the same rubbish as they did last year and the year before
I had a look at the archive

The UKMO is a southerly for Gawds sake
The ECM is a southeasterly
The latter would be dry for a while but never cold as there’s no cold source

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

Looks very good to me.

Where’s the cold air coming from in it?
There is NONE
How is that very good?
Laughably the folk on netweather seem to think any easterly is snow
It is if we’ve entered a parallel universe where the freezing level is 8c

pad199207

Is there still any discussion left anymore with this weekend coming or is the thread still best left up?

sryanbruen

pad199207 wrote: »

Is there still any discussion left anymore with this weekend coming or is the thread still best left up?

Didn't see any point of it in the first place.

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

Didn't see any point of it in the first place.

I know ditto

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Where’s the cold air coming from in it?
There is NONE
How is that very good?
Laughably the folk on netweather seem to think any easterly is snow
It is if we’ve entered a parallel universe where the freezing level is 8c

Think you're going completely bonkers honestly, courtesy of the pessimism that has suddenly rolled in after the GFS and UKMO runs.

I see nothing wrong with the ECM 12z, it comes from down that way initially on the 10th before gradually bringing in some very cold air from the east as shown by the upper air temperatures.

I have friends whom are huge weather enthusiasts too and they haven't a clue what you're talking 'bout. I tried asking them what you are trying to get at but nope, they don't know either.

If you're not happy with it, you'll never be satisfied.

EDIT: The cold is going round the high and then flowing to us from the continent than directly from the Mediterranean.

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

If you're not happy with it, you'll never be satisfied.

The only cold uppers I see are in the Carpathian Mountains somewhere
That air in tonight’s feed simply does not head for GB or Ireland in the flow on any chart published tonight
Air from the Eastern med does
I’ve had this conversation with net weather posters before and it’s always the same,they don’t get it
A week later they move on forgetting the lesson only to carry on the same again if similar Synoptics turn up again
I’ve seen this before
Let’s be realistic and not try overturn geography

Tonight’s output needs to revert back to what it was showing yesterday period.

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The only cold uppers I see are in the Carpathian Mountains somewhere
That air in tonight’s feed simply does not head for GB or Ireland in the flow on any chart published tonight
Air from the Eastern med does
I’ve had this conversation with net weather posters before and it’s always the same,they don’t get it
A week later they move on forgetting the lesson only to carry on the same again if similar Synoptics turn up again
I’ve seen this before
Let’s be realistic and not try overturn geography

Tonight’s output needs to revert back to what it was showing yesterday period.

See, I am thinking realistic, neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I am not expecting much (I don't want to be disappointed like last year), the most I expect and want is 4c and crisp Winter sunshine after all. That's pretty much why I consider it very good, as those are the kind of temperatures I would receive here in the kind of airstream it shows. So I'm not expecting absolute blizzards or even some decent streamers. My "very good" is quite different to many posters here.

I am not trying to overhype the ECM runs btw also, especially after last year's phantom easterlies as well as the late 2012 cold spell I've been hearing.

I know what discussion with other netweather posters is like, tell me about it, it's a pain, I try and stay away from that forum as much as possible, not worth your time.

We'll see how it goes because there's far too much uncertainty.