General British politics discussion thread

moon2 · 17-03-2020 12:54pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

It's not about comparison, the post I replied to stated Ireland had a handle on it.

Oh, I read all of this and think "Ireland does have a handle on covid". What's you're interpretation of that phrase in this context? What makes Ireland *not* have a handle on things? Are you looking for the infection rate to hit nearly zero before you'll say "ireland has a handle on it", or what's your criteria?

17-03-2020 1:36pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Watch the number of deaths. That number is irrespective of testing, and is a week or more behind the onset of symptoms. Currently 2, and hopefully does not rise.

If everyone followed the advice - wash hands, do not touch one's face, and keep isolated by at least 1 metre - then after the incubation period, the virus should be finished (we hope).

For everyone who deviates, it is another opportunity for this virus to spread. Everyone should be aware of this so, everyone, please treat everyone else as if they are infected. If we all do this we can get through this quickly.

This won’t finish the virus, it just stalls it. The only thing that will actually end it is if we have sufficient immunity through either infection rates or a vaccine.

beggars_bush · 17-03-2020 2:04pm

U TURN

They were actually using the wrong data

Tom Hancock (@hancocktom) Tweeted:
Incredible detail in this FT story: up until last week, the UK was basing its coronavirus control policy on a model based on hospitalisation rates for ��a different disease�� with lower rates of intensive care need than coronavirus https://t.co/7rJYh9sqg2 https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032?s=20

Sam Russell · 17-03-2020 3:41pm

Aegir wrote: »

This won’t finish the virus, it just stalls it. The only thing that will actually end it is if we have sufficient immunity through either infection rates or a vaccine.

It is not certain that we would ever get immunity because it is a corona virus like the common cold and we do not have long term immunity from that because it mutates.

Stalling will do for now.

CelticRambler · 17-03-2020 6:03pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

What makes you think Ireland has a handle on things?

I used the word "if" to start my sentence!

In any case, although testing is important, by far the most effective control measure is the separation of infected and vulnerable populations, and every day that passes without this being done sets up problems for the future. Johnson's dither and delay will have cost lives. Whether there are other factors in play that might reduce the advantage of Ireland's reactivity in this regard remains to be seen.

Sam Russell · 17-03-2020 6:47pm

GBP continuing to slide. In the last month, it has gon from 83p = €1 to 91.4p = €1.

Not a good time for the Tories. Herd immunity will cost 250,000 lives.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/coronavirus-uk-had-no-time-to-lose-to-prevent-thousands-of-deaths-1.4204987

The Imperial College Covid-19 response team – which is one of several scientific teams advising UK ministers – published a paper showing that 250,000 people could die if efforts were focused only on delaying and slowing down the spread of coronavirus, also known as Covid-19.

timsey tiger · 17-03-2020 9:40pm

This is really worrying for us. With the unionists blindly following, because like British right. We will end up with a huge number of cases spilling across the border, making it very difficult for us to manage.

This herd immunity thing really shocks me, have these people ever heard of vaccines, that thanks to science is how we achieve herd immunity. Not by allowing the thing we're trying to avoid with herd immunity.

timsey tiger · 17-03-2020 9:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

This won’t finish the virus, it just stalls it. The only thing that will actually end it is if we have sufficient immunity through either infection rates or a vaccine.

No this will finish the virus. If nobody has it then it cannot be spread. Unless there is a reservoir, that causes reinfections.

This could be travelers coming from an area of infections or it jumping the species barrier again.

Also, herd immunity is a joke given how quickly viruses in this family evolve. Are you immune to the common cold, and how many times have you had one?

timsey tiger · 17-03-2020 9:48pm

Aegir wrote: »

This won’t finish the virus, it just stalls it. The only thing that will actually end it is if we have sufficient immunity through either infection rates or a vaccine.

No this will finish the virus. If nobody has it then it cannot be spread. Unless there is a reservoir, that causes reinfections.

This could be travelers coming from an area of infections or it jumping the species barrier again.

Also, herd immunity is a joke given how quickly viruses in this family evolve. Are you immune to the common cold, and how many times have you had one?

Sam Russell · 17-03-2020 11:06pm

Today, the Irish people stayed home instead of out celebrating the day that is in it. A remarkable result.

I hope that this shows we all mean to kill this virus and intend to stop it spreading. Everyone should be following the advice - wash hands properly, do not touch you face or eyes, and keep well away from others. Assume everyone else is infected.

I hope the numbers stay down, for the sake of all, but particularly the elderly and those with compromised health. Many I know will not survive if they catch it, and I am concerned for them.

17-03-2020 11:15pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

No this will finish the virus. If nobody has it then it cannot be spread. Unless there is a reservoir, that causes reinfections.

This could be travelers coming from an area of infections or it jumping the species barrier again.

Also, herd immunity is a joke given how quickly viruses in this family evolve. Are you immune to the common cold, and how many times have you had one?

Do you know how vaccines work?

Sam Russell · 17-03-2020 11:25pm

Aegir wrote: »

Do you know how vaccines work?

Vaccines work by providing immunity, as does catching the disease (and surviving). If over 90% of a herd is immune, then the last 10% are unlikely to get infected, as long as the virus does not mutate. Flu and the common cold regularly mutate every season.

We know little about the Covid19, other than it is contagious, and has a mortality rate of 4% or so. It has not been around for a full season, so we do not even know if it will die down during the summer. In fact, because it is worldwide, it probably wont.

Of course, you know all of this and are currently advising the Government.

ancapailldorcha · 18-03-2020 6:01pm

Cut out the sniping please.

BonnieSituation · 19-03-2020 12:10am

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-london-lockdown-deaths-cases-tfl-a9409671.html

Seems London may go into Lockdown.
I'm just aghast, but not surprised, that a mere 6 days since An Taoiseach made his address on the steps of Blair House in DC, and was ridiculed in British and Unionist quarters that he and we were overreacting, the British may have to come down even harder because of their lackadaisical reaction.

beggars_bush · 19-03-2020 12:22am

Aegir wrote: »

Barely qualified?

I'd love to see what you think over qualified would mean

How's this working out?

AllForIt · 19-03-2020 2:33am

Peregrinus wrote: »

Dear God, the snobbery.

There have been many working-class Chancellors. Sunak's immediate predecessor, Sajid Javid, is the son of a bus-driver. John Major is the son of a music-hall performer and trapeze artist. James Callaghan was the son of a sailor. Denis Healey's father was a mechanic.

All this is richly ironic, given that I posted in response to this post of yours:

It seesm the disdain here is yours. And your advocacy of the working classes is less than convincing, given your conviction in the teeth of the easily-observed evidence that they couldn't possibly aspire to competence in a high office of state.

You are the one that started the class war when you alluded to Sunak not being working class. You were the one who brought class up in the first place, and now you have gone on to list prominent Tory's who come from a working class background. That's an interesting admission from someone who I'd guess would suggest the Tory party is full of elites.

If anyone showed class disdain it was you, pointing out Sunak's upper middle class connections. Class disdain works both ways and in my life experience working class disdain for the general middle classes is much stronger than the other way around.

Oh, and you forgot to mention Thatcher was the daughter of a common grocer.

Peregrinus · 19-03-2020 2:48am

AllForIt wrote: »

You are the one that started the class war when you alluded to Sunak not being working class . . .

I am not; I was responding to this point in support of Sunak, by you:

AllForIt wrote: »

All I hear from that is a typical lefty disdain for ppl who have had an education.
Up the working classes.

AllForIt wrote: »

You were the one who brought class up in the first place . . .

No, you were, in the post I just quoted.

AllForIt wrote: »

and now you have gone on to list prominent Tory's who come from a working class background. That's an interesting admission from someone who I'd guess would suggest the Tory party is full of elites.

Hardly an admission, AllForIt. It was intended as a refutation of your claim that the working classes are incapable of being Chancellor of the Exchequer. And I didn't list "prominent Tories"; I listed Chancellors of the Exchequer, two Tories and two Labour.

AllForIt wrote: »

If anyone showed class disdain it was you, pointing out Sunak's upper middle class connections. Class disdain works both ways and in my life experience working class disdain for the general middle classes is much stronger than the other way around.

I wasn't showing "class disdain"; I was refuting the suggestion that you could plausibly held him up as a champion of the working class. You may think that to point out that someone is not of the working class is automatically a manifestation of disdain, but that probably says more about your attitudes to class than about mine.

AllForIt wrote: »

Oh, and you forgot to mention Thatcher was the daughter of a common grocer.

I was listing Chancellors of the Exchequer - both Labour and Tory - who had a working class background, by way of illustrating how your class disdain has no grounding in reality. Thatcher was never Chancellor of the Exchequer. Nor, as it happens, was she from a working-class background; her father owned a chain of shops, and by all the standard measures she had a middle-class backrgound and upbringing. But perhaps your disdain extends to the middle classes also?

Infini · 19-03-2020 3:20am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-london-lockdown-deaths-cases-tfl-a9409671.html

Seems London may go into Lockdown.
I'm just aghast, but not surprised, that a mere 6 days since An Taoiseach made his address on the steps of Blair House in DC, and was ridiculed in British and Unionist quarters that he and we were overreacting, the British may have to come down even harder because of their lackadaisical reaction.

This will come back to haunt all these fools in the end expecially if there's a huge surge or they end up the next Italy in all of this because they acted the maggot in all this, BS on the whole "using the wrong data" excuse as well they didnt want to follow the rest of the continent purely out of vindictive spite like their whole approach to Brexit, it's only when they were told how many will die did they finally get bounced into acting because it would utterly destroy them long term (not to mention the small irony of a huge chunk of their core vote being wiped out in one go). Can't blame the EU for their own incompetence anymore they're on the hook now and if people end up dying in much larger numbers in Britain because of their arrogance they should be ran out of power for it and never let near it again.

As for Arlene and co lets be honest they're like the rest of them they went with Boris because they ideologically drunk on their own delusions and would do the complete opposite of what was happening on the rest of the Island because it came from Dublin not from Westminster even tho this had the potential to kill many vulnerable people in the long run. Just another example of the DUP and that putting ideological idiocy before the greater good you dont play politics with peoples safety and lives.

BonnieSituation · 19-03-2020 3:27am

Infini wrote: »

This will come back to haunt all these fools in the end expecially if there's a huge surge or they end up the next Italy in all of this because they acted the maggot in all this, BS on the whole "using the wrong data" excuse as well they didnt want to follow the rest of the continent purely out of vindictive spite like their whole approach to Brexit, it's only when they were told how many will die did they finally get bounced into acting because it would utterly destroy them long term (not to mention the small irony of a huge chunk of their core vote being wiped out in one go). Can't blame the EU for their own incompetence anymore they're on the hook now and if people end up dying in much larger numbers in Britain because of their arrogance they should be ran out of power for it and never let near it again.

As for Arlene and co lets be honest they're like the rest of them they went with Boris because they ideologically drunk on their own delusions and would do the complete opposite of what was happening on the rest of the Island because it came from Dublin not from Westminster even tho this had the potential to kill many vulnerable people in the long run. Just another example of the DUP and that putting ideological idiocy before the greater good you dont play politics with peoples safety and lives.

Well you do if you're a Tory or a Unionist.

19-03-2020 8:25am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well you do if you're a Tory or a Unionist.

Or the SNP, obviously.

serfboard · 20-03-2020 6:30pm

To the surprise of no-one, billionaire Brexit bastard Tim Martin refuses to shut his pubs in the UK, despite the fact that the Irish ones have closed:

Tim Martin wrote:

Am I out of my depth? We’re a democracy, aren’t we? I’m obviously not an expert but I’ve got a view and that’s all I can say.

He being "obviously not an expert" didn't stop him talking sh1te about Brexit and obviously doesn't stop him talking sh1te about this.

Under the hashtag #BoycottWetherspoons I saw the following tweet

20-03-2020 7:08pm

serfboard wrote: »

To the surprise of no-one, billionaire Brexit bastard Tim Martin refuses to shut his pubs in the UK, despite the fact that the Irish ones have closed:

He being "obviously not an expert" didn't stop him talking sh1te about Brexit and obviously doesn't stop him talking sh1te about this.

Under the hashtag #BoycottWetherspoons I saw the following tweet

UK have just ordered the pubs to shut

BonnieSituation · 20-03-2020 9:11pm

Well, they've closed the pubs now. Finally..

20-03-2020 9:13pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, they've closed the pubs now. Finally..

And paying everyone's wages.

UK throwing the rule books out the window.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51982005
The government is to pay the wages of employees unable to work due to the coronavrius pandemic in a radical move aimed at protecting people’s jobs.
It will pay 80% of wages for employees unable to work due to the coronavirus pandemic, worth up to £2,500 a month.
The “unprecedented” measures would stop workers being laid off due to the crisis, chancellor Rishi Sunak said.
Firms have warned the virus could see them collapse, wiping out thousands of jobs, as life in the UK is put on hold.

Brave move to stop the economy from collapsing.

beggars_bush · 20-03-2020 9:24pm

Tories have become socialists to save their own hides

AllForIt · 20-03-2020 9:38pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Tories have become socialists to save their own hides

Their hides don't need saving given their last election results.

beggars_bush · 20-03-2020 10:13pm

AllForIt wrote: »

Their hides don't need saving given their last election results.

They've faffed about for 3 weeks doing nothing

BonnieSituation · 21-03-2020 1:17am

beggars_bush wrote: »

They've faffed about for 3 weeks doing nothing

Faffed it all up the wall

CrabRevolution · 21-03-2020 3:07pm

AllForIt wrote: »

Their hides don't need saving given their last election results.

I take it the poster was referring the fact that while the rest of Europe was shutting down to combat the disease, the UK government was doing nothing, even advising sporting bodies against cancelling anything because the government had a better plan up their sleeve. They've now abandoned that plan and are falling in line with the rest of Europe.

That U-turn is what they have to answer for.

Leroy42 · 21-03-2020 3:25pm

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I take it the poster was referring the fact that while the rest of Europe was shutting down to combat the disease, the UK government was doing nothing, even advising sporting bodies against cancelling anything because the government had a better plan up their sleeve. They've now abandoned that plan and are falling in line with the rest of Europe.

That U-turn is what they have to answer for.

And seemingly that uturn was done on the basis of one scientific study (imperial college).

Why the sudden, and completely unexplained, uturn.

21-03-2020 3:48pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

And seemingly that uturn was done on the basis of one scientific study (imperial college).

Why the sudden, and completely unexplained, uturn.

At least they realised that they were on the wrong path and changed course before the morgues filled up!

Also the Chinese appear to have succeeded in stopping the virus by taking such drastic measures, so it was logical to take that approach, despite being under huge pressure to maintain BAU.

Roanmore · 21-03-2020 4:13pm

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Interesting article here on why they changed direction.
You would hope the Chief Science Adviser was influenced by Cummings.

21-03-2020 5:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

At least they realised that they were on the wrong path and changed course before the morgues filled up!

Also the Chinese appear to have succeeded in stopping the virus by taking such drastic measures, so it was logical to take that approach, despite being under huge pressure to maintain BAU.

Oh, it was logical, was it?

To defy the WHO, other EU & Asian countries, then a few weeks later pull a U-turn is logical to you?

21-03-2020 5:27pm

Can anyone explain to me how on earth Britain can afford its spending?

Brexit is going to cost a fortune replicating EU regulations and customs workers. Now promising to pay 80% of salaries to those laid off.

The UK did not recover from the 2008 recession the same way as Ireland did and its austerity after effects is still lingering on.

With its solo run aka Brexit, how much confidence can lenders have on the UK's future and ability to repay borrowing?

21-03-2020 6:37pm

salonfire wrote: »

Oh, it was logical, was it?

To defy the WHO, other EU & Asian countries, then a few weeks later pull a U-turn is logical to you?

So you would have preferred it they had continued on the previous course?

CelticRambler · 21-03-2020 6:37pm

Deleted User wrote: »

At least they realised that they were on the wrong path and changed course before the morgues filled up!

Also the Chinese appear to have succeeded in stopping the virus by taking such drastic measures, so it was logical to take that approach, despite being under huge pressure to maintain BAU.

Indeed it was. By implication, then, you're admitting that the UK's approach was - and still is - illogical because they haven't even imposed a French- or Italian- or New-York-style lockdown, never mind a drastic Chinese-style approach.

21-03-2020 6:43pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Indeed it was. By implication, then, you're admitting that the UK's approach was - and still is - illogical because they haven't even imposed a French- or Italian- or New-York-style lockdown, never mind a drastic Chinese-style approach.

By your logic Ireland is also taking the wrong approach, don't forget that this is a fast moving situation and most governments around the world are trying their best to preserve BAU.

Something that they should have decided earlier, which comes first! people or business.

Most decided that Business came before people, it was only when they realised that such an approach would kill many thousands more did they act and started prioritising people's health first.

Logic would have been to follow the Chinese model right from the start.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2020 7:08pm

salonfire wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me how on earth Britain can afford its spending?

Brexit is going to cost a fortune replicating EU regulations and customs workers. Now promising to pay 80% of salaries to those laid off.

The UK did not recover from the 2008 recession the same way as Ireland did and its austerity after effects is still lingering on.

With its solo run aka Brexit, how much confidence can lenders have on the UK's future and ability to repay borrowing?

Not an economist but brexit or no brexit, they could not simply stand idly by while everything went into lockdown. Whether they can afford it, they equally couldnt afford not to do it. I think the overall package is just north of £400bn. Some will argue its still nowhere near enough.

21-03-2020 7:15pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not an economist but brexit or no brexit, they could not simply stand idly by while everything went into lockdown. Whether they can afford it, they equally couldnt afford not to do it. I think the overall package is just north of £400bn. Some will argue its still nowhere near enough.

Most governments around the world are being forced into rethinking what is important, business or people.

Fortunately most believe people come first,hopefully they'll force the financial markets to swallow these costs, if they want to preserve the "value" of money.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2020 7:26pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Most governments around the world are being forced into rethinking what is important, business or people.

Fortunately most believe people come first,hopefully they'll force the financial markets to swallow these costs, if they want to preserve the "value" of money.

Yes and also the lay of the land is different now than it was 12 years ago and i think there's a realisation among those in power that similar shenanigans will not play this time. Twitter is a craphouse most of the time but also a pretty effective vehicle for working class grievances to get easy mass circulation.

Capt'n Midnight · 21-03-2020 7:40pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Most governments around the world are being forced into rethinking what is important, business or people.

Fortunately most believe people come first,hopefully they'll force the financial markets to swallow these costs, if they want to preserve the "value" of money.

It'll be interesting to see how the remote working and guaranteed wage will affect future policies.

If people don't need to be physically present in meetings in Birmingham then there's no point spending £100Bn to get them there 20 minutes earlier.

21-03-2020 8:05pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how the remote working and guaranteed wage will affect future policies.

If people don't need to be physically present in meetings in Birmingham then there's no point spending £100Bn to get them there 20 minutes earlier.

Yeah, commercial property owners and coffee shop managers will be shitting themselves at the prospects of long-term WFH

BTW, HS2 is more a prestige project than one that has major benefits, it does need building - just not as a High speed line, unless the remainder of the line to Scotland also gets built.

CelticRambler · 21-03-2020 8:50pm

Deleted User wrote: »

By your logic Ireland is also taking the wrong approach, don't forget that this is a fast moving situation and most governments around the world are trying their best to preserve BAU.
<snip>
Logic would have been to follow the Chinese model right from the start.

Yep. Exactly the kind of measures that we in the West deem entirely appropriate for controlling the spread of infectious serious diseases in pigs and dogs and cows and horses.

That would have been the logical response, but our governments and our people have become complacent, enjoying the benefits of our wealthy lifestyles with no thought for the downside. This was, literally, a problem waiting to happen, and no-one in government was taking it seriously. So much easier to run "terrorist shooter" drills in primary schools than to train adults to keep themselves at home.

FWIW, I think all EU member states have bungled the control of this epidemic - in France and Ireland as much as in Italy ... but Johnson has been the poster-boy for how to really mess things up.

21-03-2020 9:30pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah, commercial property owners and coffee shop managers will be shitting themselves at the prospects of long-term WFH

BTW, HS2 is more a prestige project than one that has major benefits, it does need building - just not as a High speed line, unless the remainder of the line to Scotland also gets built.

I doubt if there is much difference cost wise if the trains run at 200kph or 300, but having the extra capacity is the critical thing.

Rail must be the future, if only for freight. I agree though, it needs to go all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh at least.

PommieBast · 21-03-2020 9:43pm

salonfire wrote: »

Can anyone explain to me how on earth Britain can afford its spending?

Printing money. The ECB and the Fed probably will do the same thing though.

Talking to family back in the UK it sounds like the fall of Rome over there compared to Dublin.

timsey tiger · 21-03-2020 10:33pm

Based on our head start with the testing and the social distancing, less densely populated cities, rubbish public transport and lower levels of global connectivity, it may be possible that we begin to get a handle on this quicker than the UK.

Would it be politically possible for us to close the borders to the UK on a republic/ island basis. Prob. not but if things get really out of control over there, everything changes when people are frightened.

BTW their numbers of cases vs deaths seems way off (I've not done a detailed analysis here) I wonder are they missing a lot of cases from relative under testing.

21-03-2020 10:55pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

Based on our head start with the testing and the social distancing, less densely populated cities, rubbish public transport and lower levels of global connectivity, it may be possible that we begin to get a handle on this quicker than the UK.

Would it be politically possible for us to close the borders to the UK on a republic/ island basis. Prob. not but if things get really out of control over there, everything changes when people are frightened.

BTW their numbers of cases vs deaths seems way off (I've not done a detailed analysis here) I wonder are they missing a lot of cases from relative under testing.

I doubt Northern Ireland will get hit anywhere as bad as mainland UK.

Closing the ferry ports would mean massive shortages here, so probably not a good idea.

PommieBast · 21-03-2020 11:01pm

Aegir wrote: »

Closing the ferry ports would mean massive shortages here, so probably not a good idea.

My feeling is that there will be a de-facto partial border closure due to aircraft being grounded.

ArmaniJeanss · 21-03-2020 11:06pm

timsey tiger wrote: »

Would it be politically possible for us to close the borders to the UK on a republic/ island basis. Prob. not but if things get really out of control over there, everything changes when people are frightened.

On a republic basis - I don't think it's a step that is needed at the moment, since NI are now operating under roughly the same level of closures and 'rules' we are. If the UK had continued with the herd immunity plan, then it might have been a necessity.

On an island basis - I don't believe it could ever be acceptable to the loyalist people up the north to cut themselves off from GB.
edit : and as Aegir has already said, would cause us a lot of supply problems.

timsey tiger · 21-03-2020 11:15pm

I'm prob. a bit like Trump, I meant just closed to people movement not goods.

From an EU internal borders point of view. What is the status of UK now is our border with them an external eu border that can be closed or does the transition rules mean it is not or just effectively not?

General British politics discussion thread

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