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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #9902
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    At the moment 2 methods have been used. They both are based solely on actual data. There is no unreported cases included in the stats below

    Flawed method
    Deaths / Total cases = 3% (this is trending up)

    Accurate method
    Deaths / Closed cases = 9% (this is trending down)

    both methods are flawed.


  • #9903
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

    Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

    I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.


    You are having a go at the official data mate LOL!
    stop being obsessed with me, you are putting the rest of the people off in here


  • #9904
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Fleadhs, Arts Festivals, Cooking festivals, list endless, gigs in Dublin, Cork etc. (5/10 for me to, concerned enough.)

    Paddy’s Day parades (Worldwide?!)


  • #9905
    Carol25
    Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭Carol25


    I think people on this thread need to be mindful that as we type and hypothesise, there are people really sick, seriously ill, and those who may die. Not all of these are fitting the criteria of older / other health issues. It is a tragic, frightening, and unknown situation. Look at how the Italian and other authorities are acting rather than just listening to what they are saying...I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Irish authorities at this time...it's more of a Father Ted type response which I worry will backfire badly if people become extremely ill...:confused::(:eek:


  • #9906
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Anyone on here bought a face mask or even wore one yet?


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  • #9907
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Jin luk wrote: »
    So many people dont realise how serious this is spanish flu started slow but then wiped everything in its path, look at any chart of serious disease and covid 19 comes second to spanish flu ahead of swine flu on case confirmed at this stage on each serious outbreak people also thing its like our colds and flu when its not look at the critical numbers these people who are critical are more than likely not going to survive it which my estimates are coming in at around 18% death rate compared to what the media is saying it is at 3 or 4% china has clearly lied about fatalities iran and italy situation kind of confirms this unless these asian countries somehow adds the numbers up different

    Take a breath there Jin. We’re low on oxygen tanks.


  • #9908
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    me using the 2-3% number? LOL
    i spent hours in here insisting that number not to be used!

    But you have been insisting that it's much higher.

    As high as 10-30% when with the information I have provided it could only possibly be lower.
    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    You are having a go at the official date mate LOL!
    stop being obsessed with me, you are putting the rest of the people off in here

    I'm not obsessed with you. I have a gander at this thread every couple of days to see what's going on and see you posting the same nonsense every time no matter how many times you get called out on it.

    I can only hope I'm right about it not being as bad as early numbers suggest.

    Still a deadly virus that will kill a lot of people and I am worried about it getting to Ireland. We all have elderly loved ones.


  • #9909
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    froog wrote: »
    both methods are flawed.


    personal option versus statistical science, interesting take


  • #9910
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,673 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.


  • #9911
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    BloodBath wrote: »
    But you have been insisting that it's much higher.
    As high as 10-30% when with the information I have provided it could only possibly be lower.


    I never said that either, what are you on today?


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  • #9912
    Jin luk
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭Jin luk


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    Take a breath there Jin. We’re low on oxygen tanks.

    Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times


  • #9913
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Maybe everyone here in Boards should email HSE like nuts, bombard them with emails to update their website and info. I've to play my session in Cholis tonight, probably full of Italian, Japanese, South Korean and Singapore tourists hahaha. :)

    I already tweeted them, will do so again.


  • #9914
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Jin luk wrote: »
    Have not got the time to be writing paragraphs and . Tis the end times

    :D


  • #9915
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Jaysus give up with the numbers - you've polluted half the thread with the constant bickering about it.
    Thank you, I think a couple of users are taking the "number" issue a bit too personal, god knows why...


  • #9916
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,641 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    I think the mods need to step in and ask one or two of the lads to take a wee holiday for a while.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #9917
    Dan Jaman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,907 ✭✭✭✭Dan Jaman


    fr336 wrote: »
    Anyone on here bought a face mask or even wore one yet?


    Luckily, just a few months ago I bought a 3M welding fumes mask from.... CHINA :eek:


    Tis fine.
    I'll wear it around Aldi and nobody will even notice. 
    Вашему собственному бычьему дерьму нельзя верить - V Putin




  • #9918
    givyjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

    Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

    I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

    Whatever you say chief.


  • #9919
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Oh yes it's ironic that I'm having a go at someone who's been saying crap like as much as 30% of people who will catch this will die.

    Point out what I've said that is wrong then and back it up with "facts".

    I've done it several times already and it hasn't been countered once.

    The manner in which you’re posting comes across as bullying.


  • #9920
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    The Death Rate depends on whether you receive the care need.

    The fact the serious/critical condition has gone up 20-22% in the last few days is worrying.
    But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

    We should know more in a month on the true death rate


  • #9921
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    personal option versus statistical science, interesting take

    do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

    at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.


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  • #9922
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    froog wrote: »
    do you not see the obvious flaw with your preferred method though? it would only be accurate if the time to fatality was very close to time to being declared "recovered". i.e. the ratio is maintained over time. which it is clearly not.

    at best the second method is as inaccurate as the first (just trending different directions as you point out yourself) and the truth lies somewhere in between and will converge once hopefully this thing calms down.


    One method is flawed by definition
    The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that


  • #9923
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,641 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Hahaha just seen on the PROC Covid-19 thread that Ryanair's stock has went down 10%, I wonder if that's flight cancellations to a certain country. :):D

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #9924
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,358 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    MD1990 wrote: »


    But we dont know how many undected mild cases there are.

    We should know more in a month on the true death rate

    Exactly, its been confirmed that most verified cases have mild or no symptoms.

    That means theres tons of people out in the wild thinking they are fine or just have a cold, but spreading it all the same. If that's the case then the true number infected is going to be multiples of the current figures, which means the death rate is far lower than speculated. It's possible that we might not ever know the true figure because most of those people will never be tested, unless they are found to have a link to another case.


  • #9925
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    One method is flawed by definition
    The other one is a dynamic rate, it's the correct method but with live daily updates. What's relevant about it is the consistent trend. The curve has almost plateaued at 9% , let's hope it falls below that

    the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

    bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.


  • #9926
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    froog wrote: »
    the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

    bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

    It’s not flawed :D

    Both ways are accurate ways of reporting depending on what type of answer your looking for.


  • #9927
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,298 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    froog wrote: »
    the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

    bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.

    Ahh but according to mic these cases dont exist cus they aren't in the stats so theres no point in discussing them


  • #9928
    Candamir
    Registered Users Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Candamir


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Another 18 Americans who were passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship test positive for coronavirus after being evacuated to the U.S

    Said it before but everyone of them is infected

    I think the experience from the ship backs up the decision not to temperature screen or test asymptomatic people at ports. It would be futile, give people a false sense of security, and be a massive waste of resources.

    I’d say we’ll see positive tests continue to come from those passengers. The idea that the ship was anything even approaching a quarantine situation was crazy from the start.


  • #9929
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    froog wrote: »
    the hopkins site is down right now but i'll take your word for it. if it is indeed plateauing at 9% then it's very worrying.

    bear in mind there's certainly a huge amount of unreported mild cases which would bring the figure down substantially.


    the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know


  • #9930
    Jin luk
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭Jin luk


    Seventh death in italy


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  • #9931
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    the rate is also here, if you look at the closed cases section
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    on the same page with you on the impact of unreported cases, but as they are unreported we will never know

    looks like it hasn't plateaued to me from that.


  • #9932
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Ahh but according to mic these cases dont exist cus they aren't in the stats so theres no point in discussing them


    they aren't in the stats does not equal they don't exist
    what's unclear about it?


  • #9933
    drkpower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,475 ✭✭✭drkpower


    McGiver wrote: »
    Feckin HSE ****....no instruction to call helpline, saying that risk is "low", total complacency. "We will try to contact who is infected" - laughable. List of countries outdated, only mentions China.



    Not a big fan, but compare with NHS! I'm sure they will put Italy on that list in few days. While HSE still have only China there.

    The substance of the advice between the nhs and HSE is broadly the same (other than the detail in affected countries which is clearly more complete on nhs)I’m sure that when we have a case here, we will move to at least low-moderate


  • #9934
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,674 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    I don't think anybody will go hungry but that's not the point, shopping in this situation is stressful

    https://twitter.com/____snafu____/status/1231875199496314880

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #9935
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    froog wrote: »
    looks like it hasn't plateaued to me from that.


    If you click on show graph you can see the trend, it hasn't plateaued yet. The daily drop is getting smaller and smaller, it's plateauing around that figure, possibly drop another 1-2% who knows
    That's the number I check everyday


  • #9936
    no.8
    Registered Users Posts: 778 ✭✭✭no.8


    bodhrandude wrote:
    Hahaha just seen on the PROC Covid-19 thread that Ryanair's stock has went down 10%, I wonder if that's flight cancellations to a certain country.


    Why is that funny?


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  • #9937
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,534 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Last time it was a "suggestion"/request

    Now it's an instruction

    Stop all the tit for tat stuff on the stats. None of us are in full possession of the facts and none of us can draw any "definitive" conclusions. Bottom line. It's serious. Not serious in Ireland at this stage, but may become so. Anyone caught up in this is not going to take much solace from any stats however they are complied

    Any questions PM me - do not respond to this warning in-thread


  • #9938
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,298 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    they aren't in the stats does not equal they don't exist
    what's unclear about it?

    You are unwilling to entertain your precious stats could be completely skewed due to god knows how many unreported cases or deaths there are out there and insist on using the ridiculous term "accurate" when nothing can be called that yet


  • #9939
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    VinLieger wrote: »
    You are unwilling to entertain your precious stats could be completely skewed due to god knows how many unreported cases or deaths there are out there and insist on using the ridiculous term "accurate" when nothing can be called that yet

    Jesus look at the post above yours.:eek:


  • #9940
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,662 ✭✭✭Duke of Url


    VinLieger wrote: »
    You are unwilling to entertain your precious stats could be completely skewed due to god knows how many unreported cases or deaths there are out there and insist on using the ridiculous term "accurate" when nothing can be called that yet

    Mate, don’t bother. Just be glad he’s not a colleague.


  • #9941
    Sawduck
    Registered Users Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭Sawduck


    If it does reach Ireland the shops will be empty, I remember trying to do a bit of shopping around a time we got a recent storm warning and the whole bread section in tesco was empty, it was crazy. Going to get in a few extra bits of food this week before others take everything again ��


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  • #9942
    bb12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 886 ✭✭✭bb12


    so is dr john campbell not a medical doctor? just read up on him a little and it seems he trains nurses and was an a+e nurse in his time...is the dr a phd title and not a md title?


  • #9943
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Duke of Url wrote: »
    Mate, don’t bother. Just be glad he’s not a colleague.

    Like a motorway pileup.

    picard-facepalm-face-palm.jpg


  • #9944
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,673 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    bb12 wrote: »
    so is dr john campbell not a medical doctor? just read up on him a little and it seems he trains nurses and was an a+e nurse in his time...is the dr a phd title and not a md title?

    Correct


  • #9945
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 77,534 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    New thread here


This discussion has been closed.
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