All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless · 02-01-2019 6:33pm

Very late now I know but real life gets in the way sometimes. Just the one at Newcastle:

7.15 Newcastle: Novabridge (18/1 365, BV, Paddy) 1pt Win
Last four career wins been over C&D and getting back down to the sort of lowly mark it needs to be on to win a race these days. Ran well enough here last time when unable to get in front early doors, much better chance of leading this field and is nicely drawn to attack up the far side in stall one. Has run some of better races in last 24 months around this time of year and looked worth a small bet at the price.

Andrew00 · 02-01-2019 7:18pm

STB. wrote: »

I hate Newcastle with a passion.

However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Haslam doesn't have many A/W horses and a slightly better jockey on board this time and a 7lb turn around with the favourite on the last run for a length and a half. There are others I would be fearful of not least Smuggler's Creek who has drifted out to 9/1.

Going Well OP, BTW Chevalier let me down for a right touch on a lucky 31 (and side by side accum) the other day. Always one only myself to blame as I hadnt seen your post!

Well done

akelly02 · 02-01-2019 7:36pm

Not one of your horses have I backed because the minute I start backing you will start losing , but fair play these are serious picks

Mostly Harmless · 02-01-2019 8:28pm

Secondo scraped into an arguably fortunate 3rd place. Minuty just out of places but I got the angle of opposing the fav correct there at least. Novabridge led everywhere but the line which was very annoying but you will have that, should have bet it EW in hindsight.

+3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 127.00
Returned 175.50
P/L 48.50
ROI 38.19%

Aurora1966 · 02-01-2019 9:04pm

STB. wrote:

However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Great shout on that, nice1.

STB. · 02-01-2019 10:51pm

Aurora1966 wrote: »

Great shout on that, nice1.

Ta.

Not going to hijack your thread Mostly Harmless, but will throw up the odd suggestion for you to consider.

Tomorrow. Take a look at the 3.40 at Meydan. Its the festival meeting. Darren Bunnions Hit the Bid is entered up in the 5F Handicap. He was a half length second last year (and no Ertijaal this year) and then went on to win at Meydan. He's had a similar preparation for this year, having won at Dundalk in October. Chris Hayes rides 11/4.

Marnane also sending one for this same race in Freescape (also won his last race at 6f at Dundalk). Freescape has decent form over a mile last year at Meydan, but I think this field will take him off his feet over 5.

Meydan 4.50. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that Deauville was also running on the card and that he is running in a 1m1f Group 3. He is no longer in the Fitri Hay/Coolmore Colours nor trained by AOB, now with Fawzi Nass. This horse was within 3 lengths of both Roaring Lyon and Saxon Warrior in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) last September at Leopardstown. He is 11/2. If he gets in front, they wont get by. Luke Morris the only puzzling factor as he is down to ride.

Andrew00 · 02-01-2019 11:18pm

Meydan is way better than this National Hunt sh*te we’ve had to put up with so far. Dross this season is

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 1:13am

Don't follow Meydan at all, focus of thread was on UK/IRE AW racing to be honest.

TheMilkyPirate · 03-01-2019 9:21am

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Underwhelming day yesterday, one today at Lingfield:

3.10 Lingfield: Baasha (10/1 Boyles, Betfred, BV, Hills) 1.5pt EW
Has been putting in improved efforts since having a wind operation but has also been getting some quite mediocre rides. Has traded a good bit shorter than SP in running on last few runs and think it's a matter of time until things fall right for him to get head in front. Would have been a bigger (probably max) bet but bit of concern with drop to a mile in a hands and heels race. However does seem to travel well enough through races without being hard ridden so probably not too much of an issue with hands and heels. Opposition do not win too many races (including the 7/4 fav) and if can get away with drop back in trip then fully expect this one to be fighting out the finish.

Out over 1m2f at Chelmsford today with Havlin up

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 11:43am

2.00 Southwell: Liamba (9/1 BV, Coral) 2pts EW
Ran well only previous start at course when going down by a neck and has only run good races in its three runs since then. Is up 9lbs compared to that previous run at Southwell but this is an easier race and is a half to a prolific fibresand winner so is easy to find reasons why should be up to going well again today. Short priced fav and presence of Point Zero (who refuses to win races) at a shorter price than my selection help set things up nicely for an EW punt. Only real reservation is the 78 day break and weakness in the market on early prices.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 11:59am

2.35 Southwell: Razin Hell (9/2 Generally) 1.5pts Win
Came into this race wanting to be on Crosse Fire after good effort back from a break last in better race time but so did a few other people by the looks of things and price now looks spot on at around the 4/1 mark. Razin Hell is now a backable price at similar odds though. Southwell specialist with 7/8 wins coming at the course, ran poorly for the majority of 2018 but was campaigned away from Southwell in last 6 starts from March 2018 onwards, comes back here now in a class 5 off a mark of 65 when was previously contesting class 3s and 4s off marks in the 80s and surely must win this if can get back to anything like best form. Bit of a leap of faith required but 9/2 is plenty big enough in the circumstances.

STB. · 03-01-2019 12:05pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Don't follow Meydan at all, focus of thread was on UK/IRE AW racing to be honest.

Ah right so. Meydan another one of those foreign A/W, but English and Irish A/W and Turf horses and jockeys running there, today for the carnival.

The Marnane horse is half the price it was last night in the 4.50, so dont know what is going on there (settle for bay won the hunt cup) Would still fancy deauville in that race

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 12:12pm

STB. wrote: »

Ah right so. Meydan another one of those foreign A/W, but English and Irish A/W and Turf horses and jockeys running there, today for the carnival.

The Marnane horse is half the price it was last night in the 3.40, so dont know what is going on there. Would still fancy hit the bid.

Cannot abide the dirt racing at all, know I like Southwell and its the nearest thing to it round this part of world but it's an awful spectacle to watch with a lot of races largely settled in the first furlong or two. Also the prospect of always going up against one or more Godolphin/Hamdan (or other UAE based owners/trainers) horses that suddenly improve two stone for the "desert air" does not make for a great betting medium.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 12:32pm

3.10 Southwell: Hammer Gun (13/2 365, Hills, BV) 1pt EW
Sent off a well backed 7/2 shot last time here over a furlong further, finishing 3rd behind two relatively unexposed ones. Nothing quite like those two in opposition today and is a pound lower back at 7f, the distance at which has had most success at round here. 6 wins and 3 places at the course so clearly handles the surface very well. The three ahead of my selection in market do command respect but they all like to be towards the head of affairs and think that could quite possibly set it up for Hammer Gun to pick them off down the staright. Arguably worth a bigger bet but slight concern about one coming out of the race and leaving only two places.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 12:51pm

3.45 Southwell: Sooqaan (9/1 Generally) 1pt Win
From previous run last time out (two days ago):

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

2.55 Southwell: Sooqaan (16/1 365) 1pt Win
Was a revelation on fibresand round this time last year, winning three in a short space of time. Not really recaptured that level of form since, but has fired a few warning shots that is coming back to something like best. Finishing second to Tagur, who reopposes today, on penultimate start and has big swing in weights with that one today. Bare figures suggest ran poorly last time out but was in the lead and on the bridle turning in and traded at odds on. Has developed a worrying tendency to find very little off the bridle so would make sense to lay off at a short price in running, but is proven on surface and looks to bee in decent nick and 16s looks plenty big enough on that basis alone.

Missed the break a bit from low draw on that occasion and got snookered behind horses on rail as a result. Needs to be prominent really and should have better chance of getting there from wider draw in lower class race today. Drop in trip a concern but way horse travels over a mile suggests should be fine and surely going to get his act together again sooner or later. Again would suggest laying stake back on betfair in running at short prices given tendency to find little off bridle.

Francie Barrett · 03-01-2019 12:58pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

3.10 Southwell: Hammer Gun (13/2 365, Hills, BV) 1pt EW
Sent off a well backed 7/2 shot last time here over a furlong further, finishing 3rd behind two relatively unexposed ones. Nothing quite like those two in opposition today and is a pound lower back at 7f, the distance at which has had most success at round here. 6 wins and 3 places at the course so clearly handles the surface very well. The three ahead of my selection in market do command respect but they all like to be towards the head of affairs and think that could quite possibly set it up for Hammer Gun to pick them off down the staright. Arguably worth a bigger bet but slight concern about one coming out of the race and leaving only two places.

The outside draw in the 8 runner field over the distance here can be an obstacle. Good luck though.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 1:06pm

And last one, had been waiting to see how much can get it to drift first, but have had to bet it now:
12.55 Southwell: Katie Gale (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW
Back to something resembling form when 3rd of 7 in a considerably stronger race here last time, slightly shorter trip today will also help as has looked to not fully see it out over the extreme staying trips. Very rarely runs a bad race here and has only ever finished outside of the first 3 on 3 occasions from 18 runs on the fibresand. Another small drop in weights brings her down to a mark 3lbs lower than one she won off in March 2018, this is arguably the weakest race has ever run in at the course and has the assistance of one of the more experienced jockeys up top. Is available at bigger prices elsewhere but market is set up perfectly for the additional place EW bet with just the 10 runners (so 1/5 odds either way) and 5th in the market available at 33/1 currently - if this is bigger than 2.4 in the additional place market on Betfair I would be mildly amazed. Wanted to pull the trigger with a max EW bet but it is an amateur riders race had a fair chunk on today already.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 1:15pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The outside draw in the 8 runner field over the distance here can be an obstacle. Good luck though.

Thanks. I *think* the stats are even enough for 7f and 1m round there. Easy to lose races from a low draw if not getting out the stalls sharpish then getting caught behind wall of horses and kickback, at least being wider gives some margin for error and more flexibility in terms of tactics. In case of Hammer Gun, he's likely to be behind early regardless so not sure it makes much odds where its drawn.

STB. · 03-01-2019 1:29pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

In case of Hammer Gun, he's likely to be behind early regardless so not sure it makes much odds where its drawn.

He's a difficult ride alright, but likes Southwell. Presume they have been running him everywhere else to get his mark down. Only two jockeys have ever won on him. Paddy Mathers and Martin Lane. Lane went off to manage a holiday resort in Fiji. Dont know what the story with Mathers is as he is normally Derek Shaws go to jock.

By the way dont know if you noticed it, but I saw you mention that headbanger Point Zero when tipping up Liamba in the 2.00. You know the horse that beat it in December is in the race with Hammer Gun. The Fahey horse now up a grade (12/1). Last years winner also in the race for Furtado at 25/1. The lack of money tells you everything there though.

slimshady007 · 03-01-2019 2:00pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

And last one, had been waiting to see how much can get it to drift first, but have had to bet it now:
12.55 Southwell: Katie Gale (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW
Back to something resembling form when 3rd of 7 in a considerably stronger race here last time, slightly shorter trip today will also help as has looked to not fully see it out over the extreme staying trips. Very rarely runs a bad race here and has only ever finished outside of the first 3 on 3 occasions from 18 runs on the fibresand. Another small drop in weights brings her down to a mark 3lbs lower than one she won off in March 2018, this is arguably the weakest race has ever run in at the course and has the assistance of one of the more experienced jockeys up top. Is available at bigger prices elsewhere but market is set up perfectly for the additional place EW bet with just the 10 runners (so 1/5 odds either way) and 5th in the market available at 33/1 currently - if this is bigger than 2.4 in the additional place market on Betfair I would be mildly amazed. Wanted to pull the trigger with a max EW bet but it is an amateur riders race had a fair chunk on today already.

Great shout! Won easy

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 2:05pm

slimshady007 wrote: »

Great shout! Won easy

Ta. Went very well all considered.

STB. · 03-01-2019 2:45pm

On fire mostly harmless. 8/1 on the off.

Pearlstone · 03-01-2019 2:46pm

Very well done MH. All weather is not my thing but I have been following this thread with interest and you have tipped up some great selections.

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 6:25pm

Decent day with both of the bigger stakes getting returns, Katie Gale got it done with relative ease at a whopping 8/1 in first and Liamba scraped a place. Hammer Gun ran ok but probably got too far behind off an insufficiently quick pace, there will be other chances for him in coming weeks. Sooqaan ran a good race but was no match for the winner who looks a horse to follow closely on the fibresand for remainder of winter. On a sad note, poor old Razin Hell suffered a heart attack mid race and is no longer with us - RIP.

+21.1pts on the day and a new high point of profit for the thread, do feel like will struggle to maintain a near 50% ROI but can only try!

Totals
Staked 140.50
Returned 210.10
P/L 69.60
ROI 49.54%

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 6:28pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Out over 1m2f at Chelmsford today with Havlin up

Have left it alone as not had time to do the race in detail but could not put anyone off backing it at double figures really, would be hard to come up with any more excuses if cannot go very close today.

HarshOstrich · 03-01-2019 7:49pm

Aido mcguinness sending two across the sea to wolves tomorrow, piper bomb and beau satchel.
Very interesting

STB. · 03-01-2019 9:02pm

Red hot MH as Baasha bashes the fav in the last..... Got 11s earlier. Returned 7s. Hope it's boards money.

You were ahead of yourself the last day. Someone reminded u earlier. I took the reminder

TheMilkyPirate · 03-01-2019 9:06pm

Got 10s on baasha myself, Cheers for the shout last month MH

Mostly Harmless · 03-01-2019 9:09pm

Not sure whether to laugh or cry, had less than half a point on the betfair show (apols for the aftertime) but still doesn't really cover what was lost on it on last three runs, got a better ride at last tonight anyway

Johnny_Fontane · 04-01-2019 4:09pm

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Aido mcguinness sending two across the sea to wolves tomorrow, piper bomb and beau satchel.
Very interesting

and taceec....

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 4:13pm

Running late, here's the Dundalk bets:

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
5.30 Dundalk: Mr Moondance (40/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
6.30 Dundalk: Silk Cravat (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win
7.00 Dundalk: Rock On Dandy (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
8.00 Dundalk: Quite Subunctious (25/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
8.30 Dundalk: Tiernaur General (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

Write ups to follow.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 4:24pm

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
Always likely to find it tough going when 7lbs out of handicap on most recent start but still ran well enough anyway, back in the handicap proper today and reproduction of either previous two runs (when second to Alfredo Arcano and third behind Red All Star) would put her bang in the reckoning in this race. First try at minimum trip since maiden days but has looked to have more than enough pace for it on basis of runs over 6f. Lots of forward going sorts in line up so should get a nice tow round in 3rd or 4th on rail from stall 1 with Slattery's 7lb claim a handy bonus too. Thought should be more like somewhere round 5/1 or 11/2 and no reason why should not run big race and go very close.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 4:38pm

5.30 Dundalk: Mr Moondance (40/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Small nibbles in the market early on last time in a similar race over 2f further than today. Could only manage a midfield finish there but did meet some trouble in running in the straight. Been mostly campaigned over jumps at a lowly level for current yard but has been holding form reasonably well in that sphere and best flat form (albeit a long time ago and for a different yard) was at around todays trip. Half to Rosenborg Rider who has some serious attitude issues but has won round Dundalk and looks one of few in field with potential to find some significant improvement on recent efforts.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 4:57pm

6.30 Dundalk: Silk Cravat (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win
Bit of a bridle horse who tends to find very little when push comes to shove but has been pretty consistent in runs at Dundalk. Good run last time when beaten less than two lengths in 4th in a similar race to today. Three that finished in front of him all reopposing today but gets a decent swing at weights with winner and that run came on back of break of few months so reasonable to expect some improvement in terms of fitness today. Billyfairplay dropping out of the line up reduces competition for lead and looks sure to be on or close to the pace from stall 4. Had it priced up at 10/1 or thereabouts.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 5:08pm

7.00 Dundalk: Rock On Dandy (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Reasonable effort on return to Dundalk after spell over jumps last time and looks fairly weighted off 76 on form at Dundalk during last winter. Last run was over 2m and although has won a race over that trip here, looks to stretch it's stamina a bit and think is at best when racing bit more prominently over todays trip and is 2/4 at Dundalk over the 1m4f trip. Open race in which many can be given a shout but thought this one was at least a couple of points too big and worth a small bet.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 5:24pm

8.00 Dundalk: Quite Subunctious (25/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Was on Spanish Dawn when won impressively here on last run but no way in the world it should be shorter than 2/1 given that will have to be held up from a wide draw so have to oppose it with something. Not really sure what to oppose it with though to be honest. One I have landed on is Quite Subunctious, no idea if really wants the step up to 10f but has come down to a mark that really should be competitive off on sort of form that showed in maidens. Easy to put line through most recent run at Southwell when looking hopeless on surface and has assistance of Ben Coen. Worth a speculative punt at a big price in hope that stamina holds out.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 5:40pm

8.30 Dundalk: Tiernaur General (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Outran odds of 66/1 when showing first glimmer of any ability on most recent run over 2f shorter than today. That was first run for over 2 years so reasonable to expect him to improve on that today provided can avoid the bounce factor. Stayed on well from an unpromisiing position in that race so todays extra distance should help too. Hard to know what to expect but if that sort of form can be reproduced then should be winning a race sooner rather than later off a basement mark and seems significant that Harry Rogers has persevered with the horse after such a long time off the course.

Shanee. · 04-01-2019 6:34pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
Always likely to find it tough going when 7lbs out of handicap on most recent start but still ran well enough anyway, back in the handicap proper today and reproduction of either previous two runs (when second to Alfredo Arcano and third behind Red All Star) would put her bang in the reckoning in this race. First try at minimum trip since maiden days but has looked to have more than enough pace for it on basis of runs over 6f. Lots of forward going sorts in line up so should get a nice tow round in 3rd or 4th on rail from stall 1 with Slattery's 7lb claim a handy bonus too. Thought should be more like somewhere round 5/1 or 11/2 and no reason why should not run big race and go very close.

Ran well in 2nd. Touched 1.23 on betfair :eek:

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 9:47pm

All downhill after Smart Stinger got nabbed close home. Quite Subunctious got close to landing the 4th place but rest all ran poorly really.

-7.3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 152.00
Returned 214.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 40.99%

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 10:16pm

Will be leaving tomorrow well alone and unlikely to bother with Newcastle on Sunday either

NaiveMelodies · 04-01-2019 10:25pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

All downhill after Smart Stinger got nabbed close home. Quite Subunctious got close to landing the 4th place but rest all ran poorly really.

-7.3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 152.00
Returned 214.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 40.99%

QS back to a mile maybe? Ran pretty well but didn't look to see out the trip.

Mostly Harmless · 04-01-2019 10:29pm

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

QS back to a mile maybe? Ran pretty well but didn't look to see out the trip.

Would look the logical move yes. Clarke's horses are a complete mystery to me though.

NaiveMelodies · 04-01-2019 10:43pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Would look the logical move yes. Clarke's horses are a complete mystery to me though.

Absolutely , has a reasonable string of horses that seem to be well in but find it very hard to put faith in him.

Mostly Harmless · 07-01-2019 12:58pm

One today:
7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Write up to follow.

Mostly Harmless · 07-01-2019 2:21pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Improved with every start in novice company and giving impression that would benefit from a longer trip. Was beaten a fair distance in third last time but front two are probably above average and unlikely to be meeting anything of that sort of calibre in a class 6 handicap round here. Fenjal looks very opposable at top of market on basis that best form has been at Southwell and looks a bit of a rogue anyway. Gets an extra furlong and a bit to race over today and although that may well still be bit short of ideal distance, no surprise to see marked improvement on handicap debut and 8s looked a bit too big to me.

Mostly Harmless · 07-01-2019 3:35pm

Contrary to previous post, am doing one other for today:
4.15 Wolverhampton: Castlerea Tess (33/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Recent form figures look poor enough on face of it but has had viable excuses for last three below par efforts, having been drawn wide on last two runs and nearly coming down leaving stalls on run before that. Back up in trip for first time in while today and is questionable if fully gets the 7f trip, but should at least be able to get in to the lead early over the trip in field without many other front runners and could well outrun big odds off lowest mark for some time if that is the case.

robbiezero · 07-01-2019 5:38pm

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

and taceec....

won pretty nicely today.

Mostly Harmless · 07-01-2019 8:36pm

Navadir 2nd after looked to idle once hitting front, travelled like best horse in race but probably needs delivering bit later than was case today. Castlerea Tess never involved, will be other days for her once she refinds some sort of form.

-3.5pts on the day

Staked 155.50
Returned 214.30
P/L 58.80
ROI 37.81%

madmax72 · 07-01-2019 8:36pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

One today:
7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Write up to follow.

Unlucky thought he ran a bit green

Mostly Harmless · 07-01-2019 8:39pm

madmax72 wrote: »

Unlucky thought he ran a bit green

Inexperience definitely not helped for sure, fact they have her in a hood since second start suggests probably got a few quirks too. Looks to have bit of ability based on todays effort though.

All Weather Winter Warmer

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