All Weather Winter Warmer

redzerdrog wrote: »

Fir all your critisms if poor goat I am glad you are going to try back it up yourself. Will you be giving us your thoughts regarding implied edge as well ;-)

Nothing to prove but thanks for the comment

3.15 Southwell: Mime Dance (12/1 generally) 1pt EW
By Notnowcato who gets fair share of fibresand winners and is still unexposed on this surface having run here once (finishing close up second on penultimate start). Inconsistent and quirky but capable of winning off this mark. Blinkers + eyeshield reapplied and should be going close if in the mood.

Very busy this AM Dundalk bets coming later.

First one at Dundalk (3 to follow)

6.00 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (11/1 365, BV, Ladbrokes) 2pts Win
Last three runs all respectable efforts at Dundalk, first two runs over 10f and then surprisingly had enough pace to run well over a 7f last time and would've been placed at least if not meeting bit of trouble in running in final furlong. Yet to win a race and not got too many gears but looks genuine enough. Mile round here could be the ideal trip based on evidence of those runs. Think it's vital that is allowed to make a prolonged challenge down the straight as does not do anything too quickly but should be running them down late on if all goes to plan. Fair few dodgepots in opposition and had this around the 7/1 mark.

Bit late sorry

8.30 Dundalk: Archers Up (28/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Finished midfield in big field Leopardstown handicap last time in race that looked to suit those held up probably not a bad effort on ground that was likely a tad too soft. Had been decent nick over hurdles prior to that and is 2/2 at Dundalk (albeit a claimer and a maiden for previous trainer), very tough race but could yet be underrated off 72 round here.

9.00 Dundalk: Effernock Fizz (25/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
Been in notebook since getting a very soft ride in claimer behind Dubai Rainbow few starts back, had no hope whatsoever on most recent run when a mile out of the handicap but went off to fast and hugged the rail just to make sure. Only other run in handicap was reasonably promising when finishing 4th from the widest draw. In off its correct mark of 52 now and one of a few 3yos in line up that get a weight allowance and also gets jockeys 7lb claim, if she's got any semblance of ability then should really be getting involved. Small trainer but shrewd enough and knows how to get wins out of her horses, bit of money looks promising too.

Total sh1te yesterday, nothing could land a blow and few that went off way bigger on exchange, we go on.

Was going to leave Wolves today but one now drifted out to point where cannot leave it...

7:45 Wolverhampton - Original Choice (4/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Been generally running well in some pretty good turf handicaps all year and nothing wrong with close 3rd on AW at Lingfield last time out. Was sent off a well backed 5/4 fav there and won on only other start on AW (7f at Wolverhampton). Been a lot of money about for Maratha which has resulted in my selection drifting out during day - cannot really see case for Maratha and had Original Choice priced up closer to its opening price at around 3/1 or therebouts.

Original Choice gets things off the mark.

Staked 12.00
Returned 5.00
P/L -7.00
ROI -58.33%

One today:
2:20 Lingfield: Corinthia Knight (3/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Looked to go a bit too fast in front when being run down over 6f in listed race at Lingfield last time after hitting a low of evens in running. That run came off back of a break so may not have been 100%, now drops back in trip (just as effective at 5f) and back into handicap company today. Does not need to lead to win but not a heap of pace in the race today so should be able to get prominent. Significant class edge over the rest of the field and the only 3yo in the line up, may still be improving but probably does not need to in order to win.

Ta, not quite in profit though. Should be one tomorrow hopefully.

Early start today and busy this morning so getting this up now before I forget:

11:30 Lingfield: Wilson (25/1 Paddy/Ladbrokes paying 1234 1/5) 1pt EW
Easy to put a line through most recent run when caught a few horses wide for most of the race and petrol tank quickly emptied at the business end. Had previously taken a step in the right direction when finishing 4th at Kempton and was some money around for it on both of those two runs. Not had too many opportunities for current yard and was rated as high as 83 for Cumani, runs off 64 today and should be getting competitive off that sort of mark if not a total corpse. Has shown enough pace to suggest that drop to 7f should not be a problem and does have the rail draw to help so expect them to try and make all again, 25/1 to win and 5/1 to finish in first 4 looked very big to me.

Probably have at least one bet at Chelmsford today

Both slowly away yesterday and always struggling to get involved thereafter, Tidals Baby was very well backed later in the day, but I would not be in a hurry to be backing either of them again on that evidence.

Will be having a few bets at Dundalk and post them in due course.

5.30 Dundalk: Laughton (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Encouraging start for new connections when finishing midfield over 7f last time, traveling strongly and meeting a bit of trouble in running before stamina became an issue and weakened close home. That trip was always going to be a bit too far on all known form but way in which traveled through race gives a lot of hope that can win races off this sort of mark round Dundalk and drop back in trip can only help. Lack of pace and tendency to be slowly away are obvious concerns but at 12/1 this is well accounted for in price.

Sickener with Amazing One getting nailed on the line after hitting 1/3 in running. Laughton ran a race to finish 4th and should be winning over winter. Who knows with Chillala, won't give up quite yet.

Staked 22.00
Returned 42.50
P/L 20.50
ROI 93.18%
*Corinthia Knight settled as 9/2 winner with guaranteed price.

Bit late but one today:

3.30 Wolverhampton: Final Attack (7/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Boyles - paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Ran well from a bad draw here last time, was poorly positioned early there but probably not a massive disadvantage given they possibly went too fast in front, but nevertheless has been ridden closer to the pace for both of career wins. Looks a bit of an improved performer in recent starts and Malune gets a good tune out of him (and is very good value for his claim). A marginally stronger race than previously but has much better draw and looks an EW bet to nothing on form of any of three most recent runs.

Busy day on the fibresand today:

11.50 Southwell: Go Annie Go (25/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 0.5pt EW
Fairly big field for a nursery at Southwell but typically low on quality with a lot of apparently very low ability 2yos in the line-up. Go Annie Go showed some ability in sellers for previous yard, this is scarcely better than a seller and potential for improvement on first start on surface with some hope on breeding (Sire by Clodovil and out of an American bred mare). Obviously no superstar but one of few in line up that has at least confirmed that has sufficient ability to win races. Hugh Taylor has put up the favorite which now gives the market a nice shape for an EW bet.

1.20 Southwell: Epitaph (20/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Standing dish in these sorts of races round Southwell, not entirely genuine, does nothing in a hurry and tends to find at least one too good. Nevertheless, is now racing off lowest mark for a while, not had too many attempts at trips over 1m4f and Luke Morris in the saddle should help to make his mind up if he’s in with a shout down the straight. Few others with much clearer claims in there but Hugh Taylor has once again put up the fav so sets it up nicely for an EW bet and reckon this one could quite feasibly plod into a place at least.

1.50 Southwell: Sir Geoffrey (20/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Reluctant to put this one up again but price is too big now. Has been very well backed on both of recent starts here since returning from a break, has only run to an average level on both occasions but just about enough promise to make me believe is still capable of winning a race like this. Apart from the top two in the market, the opposition look far from inspiring. Cannot afford to get too far behind early doors but fitness should now be assured, 20/1 is too big for me and worth a bet.

2.50 Southwell: Mr Coco Bean (9/2 BV) 2pt Win
Handles the surface very well and never run a bad race here. Finished 3rd on both of two most recent starts here and easy enough to find reasons for improvement, having got behind early on on first occasion and then racing wider than ideal last time. Was in good form at this time last year and application of first time cheekpieces an additional source of potential improvement. Main market rival, Earl Of Bunnacurry finished well behind my selection last time, that one did have excuses but think it has quite possibly reached the peak of its ability having gone up 11lbs for two previous wins and am struggling to see how it can reverse that form.