Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

jambofc · 22-02-2010 11:16am

very light snow grain shower,lasted about one min

200motels · 22-02-2010 11:20am

I suppose we here in the capital of no snow will only see rain.:(:(

Gonzo · 22-02-2010 12:32pm

I think most of us in the east will just see sleety snow with very little if anything sticking to the ground.

DOCARCH · 22-02-2010 12:47pm

Looking at 06z you'd be doing very well to even see some sleet! For the Dublin area anyway. Looks like cold rain event atm.

But still too close to call I'd say - nowcast really.

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2010 12:52pm

You would be an optimistic man to expect more than a transitional period of sleet in Dublin tomorrow, obviously alot depends on the tracking of this low. Currently it is suggested to move just too far north, but this could change and will of course have big ramifications.

Still looking good for Ulster and the northwest tomorrow night into Wednesday.

For the east, the southerly up the Irish sea is the real killer.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 12:55pm

Wildly OT but we should get this fella working for Met Eireann !

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2010 12:56pm

Ummm, you would have to question GFS positioning, the low over southern UK was seems to have been progged too far north going by observations of snow widespread in southern England just north of the coast.

redsteveireland · 22-02-2010 12:57pm

tinners wrote: »

Wildly OT but we should get this fella working for Met Eireann !

Childishly funny! I love it!:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 12:58pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Childishly funny! I love it!:D

I'm in that mood today !! Not getting excited about snow prospects this week... just waiting to be surprised !

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 1:07pm

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

if this winter had any sense of decency it would go out with a bang for those of us who want snow.

redsteveireland · 22-02-2010 1:09pm

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast :(QUOTE]
What happened to a line from Galway to Dublin, or was I mistaken?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 1:11pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

QUOTE]
What happened to a line from Galway to Dublin, or was I mistaken?

As has been said it can change and has already. Best to just wait and see !

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 1:16pm

nacho libre wrote: »

So are we talking about a line from Sligo northwards, based on present ouputs, that are the only places likely to get snow? this woud tally with the BBC countryfile forecast

if this winter had any sense of decency it would go out with a bang for those of us who want snow.

Quotes went a bit mad in my last post

I totally agree with you, one last blast and I would be happy

Redsunset · 22-02-2010 1:18pm

UK getting bombarded again i see.

Comparing the Gfs chart you posted WC to realtime(Well an hour in the difference) it looks fairly good.

e54d47z3Y3zWI

Lumi · 22-02-2010 1:22pm

tinners wrote: »

redsteveireland wrote: »

As has been said it can change and has already. Best to just wait and see !

Agreed! Given the uncertainty of the charts at the moment its best to stick to the time-honoured forecasting method of sticking your head out of the window tomorrow night

redsteveireland · 22-02-2010 1:27pm

Fionagus wrote: »

tinners wrote: »

Agreed! Given the uncertainty of the charts at the moment its best to stick to the time-honoured forecasting method of sticking your head out of the window tomorrow night

Don't forget to watch any lamp posts near by too.

beco · 22-02-2010 1:52pm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

How accurate are these fellows?

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 2:05pm

just heard the radio forecast there, sleet and snow moving northwards turning back to rain in western and central areas, while remaining as snow in the Northwest and Ulster. Well, it's not perfect from my perspective but if that forecast verifies a few hours of heavy snow is better than none at all!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 2:06pm

nacho libre wrote: »

just heard the radio forecast there, sleet and snow moving northwards turning back to rain in western and central areas whill remaining as snow in the Northwest and Ulster. Well, it's not perfect from my perspective but if that forecast verifies a few hours of heavy snow is better than none at all!

Defo, just wanna see one last bit of snow !!

Anyway... lets get planning for next winter ! :pac:

Deep Easterly · 22-02-2010 2:12pm

tinners wrote: »

Anyway... lets get planning for next winter ! :pac:

Not looking good. Just had a quick glance at my cat's paw. Long range cat paw reading suggest a mild, wet winter next year but this is subject to change. Will wait for the next cat paw run at 00z hrs to see.

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 2:13pm

beco wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

How accurate are these fellows?

i find them to be fairly accurate. they seem to reflect the latest predictions from met eireann as well. it'll be interesting to see just how much snow people in the north of the country get. i just hope there's a foot of snow here before it turns back to rain:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 2:15pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not looking good. Just had a quick glance at my cat's paw. Long range cat paw reading suggest a mild, wet winter next year but this is subject to change. Will wait for the next cat paw run at 00z hrs to see.

Again, this sounds like another crow's arse story to me !!! :pac:

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 2:16pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not looking good. Just had a quick glance at my cat's paw. Long range cat paw reading suggest a mild, wet winter next year but this is subject to change. Will wait for the next cat paw run at 00z hrs to see.

speaking of which Ken Ring hasn't been on here in a while.

Deep Easterly · 22-02-2010 2:20pm

nacho libre wrote: »

speaking of which Ken Ring hasn't been on here in a while.

Didn't he predict a mild end to the winter? I can't be sure. But then again, so did I in the competition thread, and that went titicus verticus as well.

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 2:31pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Didn't he predict a mild end to the winter? I can't be sure. But then again, so did I in the competition thread, and that went titicus verticus as well.

he predicted the peak of the cold for the end of January, with a cold start to February then milder until the last week in Feburary

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 2:40pm

wow Thomas Schafenacker(?) delivered a glorious forecast for the week if you live in the north. Snow on and off for the guts of three days up there!
if his forecasts verifies there is going to be a serious dumping up north!! regarding tuesday's possible snow event, it looks good for the west and midlands, before the snow turns back to rain in the early hours of Wednesday.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 22-02-2010 2:46pm

nacho libre wrote: »

wow Thomas Schafenacker(?) delivered a glorious forecast for the week if you live in the north. Snow on and off for the guts of three days up there!
if his forecasts verifies there is going to be a serious dumping up north!! regarding tuesday's possible snow event, it looks good for the west and midlands, before the snow turns back to rain in the early hours of Wednesday.

Mr. SwiffyNiffy is wrong... 4 day polar low over Naas

jambofc · 22-02-2010 2:56pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not looking good. Just had a quick glance at my cat's paw. Long range cat paw reading suggest a mild, wet winter next year but this is subject to change. Will wait for the next cat paw run at 00z hrs to see.

not questioning you're cat,but my two dogs are running around in circles anti-clockwise and barking in a strange northern accent,reminds me of someone from Coleraine area,definitely means snow for meath

darkman2 · 22-02-2010 3:09pm

Even if this does not give snow to some places there are more opportunities right through to the weekend and possibly beyond. I don't think the models have this tracked accurately yet though. Still some small differences that make a big difference!

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2010 3:14pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Even if this does not give snow to some places there are more opportunities right through to the weekend and possibly beyond. I don't the models have this tracked accurately yet though. Still some small differences that make a big difference!

The crucial difference will be that we hope it will have a tighter packed gradient on its northside than the GFS op shows.

OP run

gfs-0-48.png?6

Better scenario (One of GFS ensembles)

gens-7-1-48.png?6

darkman2 · 22-02-2010 3:23pm

I can go one better. DWD;)

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 3:30pm

well, as was said some places will see snow this week others not. whoever does get snow this week enjoy it boys and girls because who knows next winter could be a real stinker that is dominated by mild south westerlies throughout. even though the snowfall returns could have been a lot better, this has been an exceptional winter that will be remembered for years to come.

Joe Public · 22-02-2010 3:50pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well, as was said some places will see snow this week others not. whoever does get snow this week enjoy it boys and girls because who knows next winter could be a real stinker that is dominated by mild south westerlies throughout. even though the snowfall returns could have been a lot better, this has been an exceptional winter that will be remembered for years to come.

It will not go into the history books if next winter is colder but as part of a run of cold winters.

Danno · 22-02-2010 4:41pm

My feeling so far is...

Take out your atlas boys and girls... look at the N52 road that divides this beautiful isle. If you are north of it, expect snow more than rain, south of it, expect rain more than snow. I think the front will only make it as far north as a line from Sligo to Belfast with areas N of here staying dry.

nacho libre · 22-02-2010 4:43pm

Joe Public wrote: »

It will not go into the history books if next winter is colder but as part of a run of cold winters.

well, the duration of the cold is exceptional. it will take something special to rival it. it is the type of winter we rarely get. i doubt many here can remember a winter with such sustained cold, where the jet stream was kept so far to the south of Ireland for so long. it would be brilliant if it turns out, as you say, to be a cold winter in a run of many but somehow i doubt we'll see a winter like this for a long time again.

ninebeanrows · 22-02-2010 4:44pm

12z GFS slight movement in good direction, less development of that secondary centre to the low but still there, if the trend continues in the 18z then who knows, other runs will be interesting.

darkman2 · 22-02-2010 4:47pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z GFS slight movement in good direction, less development of that secondary centre to the low but still there, if the trend continues in the 18z then who knows, other runs will be interesting.

Posters from Ulster won't be complaining!

Literally just the smallest chages required. It is an improvement in that it is colder when the precip arrives and the -5 850 isotherm is a smidgeon further South. UKMO next.

WolfeIRE · 22-02-2010 4:49pm

Real snow risk does not kick in until Thursday and Friday as far as I can see.

I do agree though that subtle changes over the next 24hrs can have a huge bearing on matters

200motels · 22-02-2010 4:54pm

nacho libre wrote: »

well, the duration of the cold is exceptional. it will take something special to rival it. it is the type of winter we rarely get. i doubt many here can remember a winter with such sustained cold, where the jet stream was kept so far to the south of Ireland for so long. it would be brilliant if it turns out, as you say, to be a cold winter in a run of many but somehow i doubt we'll see a winter like this for a long time again.

For me it has being a cold winter but a disappointing winter with regards to snow, all we got was one day of snow, I remember the 70's and 80's where we would get more snow in March than we did this winter.

DOCARCH · 22-02-2010 4:55pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Posters from Ulster won't be complaining!

Lucky OwenC is on a ban! Wouldn't bet on it if he was here.

snow ghost · 22-02-2010 4:59pm

nacho libre wrote: »

speaking of which Ken Ring hasn't been on here in a while.

Lets just say the tiger at Auckland zoo didn't take too kindly to having his palm read and being told that the weather would remain 'cool for cats'. :eek:

.

snowjon · 22-02-2010 4:59pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Posters from Ulster won't be complaining!

I still think the Irish Sea may ruin things this close to the east coast but I have to admit that the prospects for snow this week are mouthwatering!!

darkman2 · 22-02-2010 5:06pm

Id consider the UKMO 12z a slight improvement aswell in that the snow potential is a bit further South.

WolfeIRE · 22-02-2010 5:10pm

Is this scenario the one most likely to produce snow for lower lying areas?

Snowaddict · 22-02-2010 5:12pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Id consider the UKMO 12z a slight improvement aswell.

It is indeed Darkman. The main area of low pressure does not make as much northward progress as was indicated on the 00Z Evolution.

Mountainous regions & areas from the central midlands Northwards are currently at risk of sustained snowfall, with significant snowfall in excess of 10CM now quite likely across several areas above 200M-300M in the south, and in areas at much lower elevations further north.

The latest NAE 12Z Guidance is indicating fairly widespread snowfall from the Central Midlands Northwards @ T+36. Snowfall is also possible in areas at elevation across Southern areas for a time tomorrow afternoon.

munsterlegend · 22-02-2010 5:16pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

It is indeed Darkman. The main area of low pressure does not make as much northward progress as was indicated on the 00Z Evolution.

Mountainous regions & areas from the central midlands Northwards are currently at risk of sustained snowfall, with significant snowfall in excess of 10CM now quite likely across several areas above 200M-300M in the south, and in areas at much lower elevations further north.

The latest NAE 12Z Guidance is indicating fairly widespread snowfall from the Central Midlands Northwards @ T+36. Snowfall is also possible in areas at elevation across Southern areas for a time tomorrow afternoon.

i want it further south! still open to change i suppose - these things rarely work out as planned or predicted. what is later in the week looking like?

WolfeIRE · 22-02-2010 5:18pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

Mountainous regions & areas from the central midlands Northwards are currently at risk of sustained snowfall, with significant snowfall in excess of 10CM now quite likely across several areas above 200M-300M in the south, and in areas at much lower elevations further north.

SA, I am not in habit of asking the generic boards weather question, but what do you think my chances are of seeing snow? I am 450-500ft asl, 12 miles inland from west coast. When giving forecasts it is somewhat hard to call your own forecast. Sorry for question

Snowaddict · 22-02-2010 5:19pm

Owenc & members from parts of Galway, Mayo and counties further North will be very happy if the evolution develops as modelled on the 12Z NAE Guidance - it's indicating significant snowfall across these areas at T+42:

snowjon · 22-02-2010 5:22pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

Owenc & members from parts of Galway, Mayo and counties further North will be very happy if the evolution develops as modelled on the 12Z NAE Guidance - it's indicating significant snowfall across these areas at T+42:

:eek::eek: Stunning! If only that would actually happen!!

Snowaddict · 22-02-2010 5:26pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

SA, I am not in habit of asking the generic boards weather question, but what do you think my chances are of seeing snow? I am 450-500ft asl, 12 miles inland from west coast. When giving forecasts it is somewhat hard to call your own forecast. Sorry for question

Hi WolfeIRE,

At the moment, they are at 50% or lower, with your location further south being the issue.

It's very difficult to call, I would say impossible even because it all depends upon the exact track of the area of low pressure and as to how much less cold air becomes embedded within the mix. You may well see transient snowfall for a time, but the chances of seeing prolonged snowfall at the moment appear to be low.

Again, any small changes will have a significant bearing on the nature of the precipitation, but transient snowfall followed by sleet/cold rain looks likely for your location at the moment. This is as ever, even at this very close timeframe, subject to change, however significant changes are unlikely at this stage.

SA

Cold Spell Discussion cont: Tuesday, Wednesday - more heavy snow risk

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